Nationwide water drought 2024

Any idea if this will affect Cali?

World wide phenomena

El Niño plus climate change ( yes it is real)

Low snow pack in Western Canada..will be another terrible forest fire year

There also will be power Brown  outs all over the world because of reduced hydro electric capacity

And the ironic part is, where coal and natural gas is available  and thermal genersting capacity exists, the short fall will be made up by burning fossil fuels.

It is what it is

We have to be stoic

@nico peligro Oh I know all about climate change being all-too real. I also know that the human race will NOT stop it, or even slow it down. I'd explain why I believe that, but it'd be a long message, haha! 😄

So the real questions we should be asking are:

• How can we avoid the negative consequences (in this specific case, it'd suck if I move to Cali only to get hit with that water shortage)

• How can we (the common folks like everyone in this forum) profit off of the effects of Climate Change? I mean, Corporations are already working on this (they have R&D departments that think long-term), so why not us plebes try as well?

@ChineduOpara i know the human race wont.stop it because we keep on breeding and are materislistic and nobody wants to live in their basement on bugs without hest,, water, air conditionining or electricity

I  recommend reading books by Vaclav Smili

Yes, it's been an unusually dry several months in Salento as well, with higher than normal temperatures.

From the middle of Valle del Cauca and South we have been getting some decent rain for about two weeks now , have not been up to take a look at the reservoir above our pueblo

but i would imagine the water level is up pretty decent . Guess that makes us pretty lucky considering what is going on North in the country .

@nico peligro

     As for the breeding part apparently many nations like Japan , China  and the US are already seeing reverse population growth patterns . Less people , less CO2  means less trees and green foilage which means less oxygen .

@Tail Gunner

world population is projected to be peaking at.10 to 11 billion

But at least 6 billion  of these  have energy usage one fifth of Europe and less than half of China

They demand a lifestyle similar to the West..and that takes energy

Oil, gas and coal consumption and thus emmisions are increasing every year, year on year,  except 2008 financial crisis and Covid.

I doubt.eissions globslly will even  peak until at least 2035. And that is optimistic.

https://youtu.be/JfppF_--XXk?si=udr7O3hZXGXnRkhU

Back on the subject..getting more rain in the Eje Cafetería these days and I also heard in Medellin and in Western Canada.

So maybe El Niño and the drought is over..for now

I get weather reports as part of my job from a company that forecasts El Nino and they indicated about three weeks ago that it was on the way out, Then a few days later it indicated that a weak El Nino was persistently hanging on. The latest report form CIC indicates that it is once again weakening and on the way out. Time will tell, as they say in Hollywierd.

regards,

elpeeD

Lets all do the Happy Dance as the it has been raining here in Colombia and especially so where I live in my pueblo outside of Medellin for 2 plus weeks now, blessed rain!

Last night I was awoken by how I can only describe as a torrential downpour that lasted over an hour then returned to normal hard rain, beautiful!

The North Atlantic/Northeast Pacific/Tropics SSTA Outlook

Executive summary: An extremely complicated North Atlantic and Northeast Pacific SSTA regime with profound influence on North America and Europe climate is reviewed. The North Atlantic is record warm but with a unique character and forecast (by ECMWF) to change during the northern hemisphere summer. Similarly, important changes are forecast (by ECMWF) in the Northeast Pacific. There are attendant implications on the tropical Pacific and Atlantic SSTA regimes also contributing to the North America and Europe climate over the next 3-6 months. In summary, the Northeast Pacific marine heatwave regenerates shifting eastward toward the U.S. and increases risk of returning West U.S. drought beginning later this summer season. The profound subtropical/tropical North Atlantic warmth spreads westward to the U.S. East Coast and Gulf of Mexico creating increased risk of a hot summer for the East U.S. while supplying record-strength upper ocean heat for 2024 North Atlantic hurricane season. Finally, persistence of the North Atlantic warm hole during summer 2024 should recreate conditions in the upper atmosphere supportive of a hot and dry ridge in parts of Europe and/or Western Russia during upcoming summer.

Discussion: Since the late 1990's the North Atlantic has entered a warm cycle as identified by the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation (AMO). The AMO warm and cool cycles are typically 3-4 decades. The current warm AMO cycle is nearly 3 decades old. The last warm cycle lasted 40 years (1925-1965).

The warm North Atlantic Ocean basin character changed about 10 years ago. The steady warming of the basin, particularly in the northern latitudes, contributed to a warmer polar climate causal to the constricting polar ice cap and speeding the springtime snow and ice melt across Greenland and Northeast Canada. The fresh-water runoff into the North Atlantic to the south of Greenland has caused a semi-permanent stratified upper ocean layer of cool water. This feature is known as the North Atlantic warm hole (NAWH).

A map of the north atlantic ocean

Description automatically generated

Fig. 1: Daily North Atlantic basin SSTA analysis valid May 7, 2024.

Another change in the North Atlantic basin has occurred during the past 2 years. The NAWH has widened during springtime last year and again in 2024 (Fig. 1) to include areas south and southeast of Greenland extending southwestward to near Bermuda. To compensate, a marine heat wave (MHW) formed off the northwestern coast of Africa last year and remains intense in 2024. The marine heat wave expanded to the North Atlantic subtropics and tropics during the past 8-9 months causing the record warm tropical North Atlantic (TNA) index. The +TNA regime is so warm (+1.35) that the contribution to the entire basin is also causing a record warm AMO (+1.15) for this time of the year.

Meanwhile, the Northeast Pacific contains a similar decade-old basin-wide SSTA pattern character change. About 10 years ago a gigantic pool of warm water (extending to 300-meter depth) formed in the Northeast Pacific and shifted eastward to the North America West Coast causing a major disruption in the ecosystem and El Nino 2015-16 to approach record strength. The MHW became semi-permanent in the Northeast Pacific basin. Recently, the MHW weakened while shifting westward. During recent weeks the MHW has regenerated a vivid presence (Fig. 2) and is beginning to shift eastward again.

A map of the north and the pacific ocean

Description automatically generated

Fig. 2: Daily Northeast Pacific basin SSTA analysis valid May 7, 2024.

The NAWH and Northeast Pacific MHW semi-permanent presence of the past 10 years has strongly contributed to the shape of the upper air flow across North America and Europe. On average, an amplified high pressure is present near and south of Alaska while a low-pressure area sits southeast of Greenland (Fig. 3). The semi-permanent features identified can meander but are nearly always present. The implications (based on observations) are profound. If the Northeast Pacific ridge expands eastward, strong drought emerges across western North America. When wintertime polar vortex pattern generates, the intensity is extreme and features arctic air. The NAWH trough is compensated for by a downstream Europe ridge responsible for the anomalous warmth of the past decade and increased risk of summer drought.

The SSTA conditions described, especially in 2024, are unique and impossible to analog. Consequently, climate forecasts which are based largely on the global SSTA patterns are forced to recognize the best (model) initialization of current conditions and carry that forecast forward to help project global climate for the remainder of 2024. The best initialization of all models is judged by Climate Impact Company as the ECMWF output.

A map of the world with different colored lines

Description automatically generated

Fig. 3: The 2014-23 upper air pattern across the Northeast Pacific to Western Russia affected by the Northeast Pacific MHW and NAWH SSTA regimes.

In May, ECMWF identifies the emerging MHW in the Northeast Pacific and recognizes the unusually wide influence of the NAWH. These features are affecting the SSTA patterns in the tropics, such as the ENSO regime. Using ECWMF to project the August 2024 global SSTA outlook yields several major regime evolutions.

A weak La Nina forms. The weak depiction by ECMWF implies a La Nina climate may be slow to develop. Other models, such as CFS V2 are aggressive at developing a stronger La Nina.

The Northeast Pacific MHW expands toward the U.S. West Coast. The record-length cool phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation (-PDO) is fading. A weakening -PDO is supportive of a weaker La Nina. The risk of high pressure induced hot and dry weather for the U.S. West Coast increases by late summer.

The NAWH pattern remains vividly present during late summer. The influence on the North Atlantic SSTA is to cause the record warm subtropical/tropical SSTA pattern to spread westward to the North America East Coast. The SSTA pattern surrounding Europe also remains warm. Late summer hot weather risk is evident for the East U.S. and much of Europe.

In the North Atlantic tropics, the SSTA pattern is record warm and upper ocean heat for hurricanes is immense. This scenario supports record numbers and intensities of hurricanes.

Finally, presence of a positive phase Indian Ocean dipole (+IOD) is unusual given La Nina expectation. The strong +IOD may be weighing down La Nina development as uniquely forecast by ECMWF. The warm western Indian Ocean guarantees excessive rains for East Africa and northward to possibly include the Middle East.

A map of the world with different colored areas

Description automatically generated

Fig. 4: ECMWF global SSTA forecast for August 2024.

Using ECMWF to project long-term ENSO phase, the model consensus is evolution of a weak La Nina during the JUL/AUG/SEP 2024 timeframe possibly strengthening during northern hemisphere winter 2024-25 and fading toward neutral phase the middle third of next year (Fig. 5). Climate Impact Company agrees with this forecast (based on best initialization of current conditions).

A graph of the weather

Description automatically generated with medium confidence

Fig. 5: ECMWF Nino34 SSTA forecast plumes through May of 2025.

Here is the latest forecast... lol.

elp

@ChineduOpara

Don't move somewhere that already has scarcity. Yeah, you don't like that one I bet. So the next best thing. Just like money; water and electricity are a limited resource. Do you know where your water and electricity go; that is what uses how much. Find your water meter and close off all water and check your meter and see if it moves. If it does you either have a leak; such as a toilet or dripping faucet or a phantom user. I have a phantom user of water in the form of a Reverse Osmosis water filter. It must waste a certain amount of water to produce clean pure water and I accept that. Having stated that I don't flush my toilets with RO water or bath with it. Do you flush every time you pee? Where does your waste water go? So forth and so on.

Now do the same with your electrical budget. There are lots of phantom electricity users in the typical home. How many electronic bricks are plugged into your house at any given time? I probably have between five and ten, I really don't know so say ten. That is likely 15 KWH of juice per year or five to ten bucks depending on your electrical rate. TVs, yeah that instant on means your TV is constantly sucking down KWH's even when not in use. Get yourself a KWH meter and check it to see just how much. I have four TV's plugged in at all times. How about computers? You get the idea.

Then think outside the box. For example an efficient dishwasher uses less water than hand washing and by a lot! So look at all of your electrical item and see what can be upgraded to more efficient models or modalities. I could probably unplug two of my TV's and half of the chargers. Light bulbs, how efficient are yours and do you have them on when not needed. In my house in California the government comes by once every year or so; if I request, and audits my home. They typically give me about a hundred dollars worth of bulbs to help with usage. Do you have a rooftop terrace where you can put a few solar panels?

Can you cook several meals at the same time in your oven? Can you cook or wash clothes in the off-peak hours. Most people don't realize it; but, electricity production must exactly match consumption or you will burn up stuff. To that effect my company gets charged when we send power to the grid when it is not needed. That's right we have to PAY to send power out to the wires. So high usage time in Texas are the lighting bumps (when people get up in the morning and return home at the end of the day) and in the hot months the Air Conditioning bumps (when it gets hot about 2 pm in the summer).

Smart meters (doubt they are common in Colombia). You band a group of homes together and create a Virtual Power Plant which allows the utility company to shut off your power for short periods of time during peak usages.

So electricity and water go very much hand in hand in a country where Hydro power is common.

I could go on for pages; but, I imagine you have the idea.

How will you profit? By leaving the world a little less polluted for yourself and  others, the greatest payoff of all.

Regards,

elp

Boy lots of talk about this subject, let me just say as for water use "If It's Brown Flush It Down but If It's Yellow Let It Mellow".....hehehehehe.......

............I remembered that line from growing up in California and in the 70's and 80's we had lots of droughts...........so no this climate change is nothing new, been going on for eons of time, we humans/mankind  think we are so important in the universal scheme of things.......Men plan and God laughs.

This being said I use (solo in my 3 bdrm/2 bath apartment) an average of 3 M2 of water each month and I cook, clean, shower, do laundry daily..............I dare you to check your monthly water usage and compare your usage.

As for electricity I just received and paid my April EPM bill (Medellin and oh BTW I am a retired Electrical and Civil Engineer who designed/built/licensed/commissioned utility scale power plants across the South-West USA) and my last months electrical usage was 133 kwh, granted I was traveling one week this period.....

............so 133 kwh @ 844 pesos/kwh = 117,599 pesos LESS SUBSIDY'S of 55,347 pesos (YES I live in a smallish pueblo outside of Medellin) so my net cost for electrical was 62,252!

And I run my TV, high amp/vintage stereos, mood lighting, vintage neon signs, whole house LED lighting, etc., etc. in my Man Cave daily.

Life is Good In Colombia :-)