On November 5, millions of Americans will head to the polls to choose the US president for the next four years. The primary choice is between Kamala Harris for the Democratic Party and Donald Trump for the Republican Party. Their different policies, especially on immigration, foreign policy, and other key issues, will likely affect the lives and plans of both expats living in the US and American expats abroad.
The positions of Harris and Trump on immigration
A change in government can bring unexpected complications for expats in many practical matters: access to their Social Security benefits and pension, the ability to bank or manage a business between two countries, family reunification, renewing work visas, access to healthcare, safety from xenophobia and violence, among others.
The 2016-2019 Trump administration was marked by isolationist policies, a shift that was only partially reversed during the 2019-2024 Biden presidency. In the upcoming 2024 election, where do the two leading candidates stand on immigration, the main issue likely to impact the lives of expats? Here's an overview of their key positions and promises, based on information from the Peterson Institute for National Economics, Associated Press, HR Brew, and the Council on Foreign Relations.
Harris and her vice-presidential candidate, Tim Walz:
- Increase work and family visas: Increase the work visas granted to skilled expats by 13% and increase family reunification visas by 7% by 2030.
- Allow employment for H-1B visa dependents: Potentially allow the spouses and dependent children of expats with the employer-sponsored H-1B visa to also work in the US.
- Strengthen border security and limit asylum: Implement stricter criteria for asylum seekers and increase border security to limit crossings from Central America. This includes increasing the detention capacity of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).
- Improve immigration processing: Hire more government staff in immigration-related roles to make visa, permit, and citizenship processing faster.
- Easier residency of naturalization for specific groups: Simplify the pathway to naturalization for undocumented immigrants who arrived in the US as children, as well as the pathway to residency for Afghans who fled the return of the Taliban in 2021.
Trump and his vice-presidential candidate, JD Vance:
- No birthright citizenship: End automatic citizenship for children born in the US to immigrants or expats who lack at least permanent residency.
- Mass deportation: Deport around 11 million undocumented non-citizens.
- Deportation of protesting international students: Revoke the student visas of international students who have participated in pro-Palestine protests.
- Ideological visa screening: Screen the political opinions of all visa applicants more closely, especially to check for “sympathy for jihadists, Hamas, or Hamad ideology.”
- Green Cards for all graduates of American universities: Automatically grant permanent residency to all international students who pass the ideological screening.
- Muslim travel ban: Reinstate and expand his previous travel ban on visitors, international students and expats from a list of Muslim-majority countries.
Expats' expectations and hopes as the election draws near
Our editorial team reached out to members of Expat.com to gather their thoughts on how these elections might impact them. Every answer was different, given that no two expats live in the same circumstances, but many seem to prioritize stability above everything else. In most responses from expats or prospective expats, a Harris-Walz government signals more stability, even when they are not major fans of their policies.
One American expat living in Spain mentioned that the election results will influence his choice of whether to stay in Spain for the entire year or split his time between Spain and the US. He and his spouse have already bought a house on the warm Valencian coast. If Harris wins, they will spend only a few months of vacation in their Spanish home. However, if Trump wins, they would rather remain in Spain permanently. This expat has made sure to vote in every single election since the 1970s, and he has already sent his ballot for Harris early this time around.
Another prospective American expat indicates that if Trump wins, she and her husband intend to relocate to Portugal or Mexico. As a retiree, she expresses her desire not to spend her later years in a country she believes could be governed like a “dictatorship.” However, she is also concerned about her ability to access American banking services from abroad, including online banks like Wise, in case aggressively isolationist policies are implemented in the financial sector. Meanwhile, an American expat already living in Portugal worries that this small European nation will be overwhelmed by an influx of new expats from the US in the event of a Trump victory. This would lead to long lines at immigration offices and real estate agencies, complicating bureaucratic processes.
Another prospective expat, this time an American who wants to move to Colombia, shares that the election won't affect his firm decision to move from Florida to Medellin, even if he prefers Harris to win just for the sake of political stability. He is worried about Trump's erratic approach to changing the rules, even if he is not completely opposed to the Republican Party in general. He would also like to move his assets (including his retirement funds) abroad because he is worried that they will not be safe in the US.
How about expats with dual citizenship? One American expat in Brazil, who now holds both American and Brazilian citizenship, explains that his position allows him to see this election from both a local and international perspective. One reason he opposes a Trump win is his concern that when the US shifts right, it encourages neighboring Latin American countries, including his expat destination Brazil, to also lean toward authoritarianism. He's also worried that a Republican victory could threaten Social Security benefits for Americans living abroad. Many American expats, he points out, financially depend on Social Security and dollar-based investments, and he is wary of any instability in US politics that could weaken the dollar.
His concerns about a declining dollar resonate with another American expat couple in Portugal. They are anxious that violence or unrest may break out when the election results are announced, which could impact the dollar's value and their investments in the US, on which they depend to support their lives in Europe. Currently, they are exploring non-US alternatives for their savings and investments, but it remains tricky, for, as they note, any instability in US politics is likely to have repercussions on the global economy, not just the American one.
A French expat who has become a naturalized US citizen observes the differences between voting in American elections and in France. He describes the highly emotional and polarized US electoral climate as unhealthy and chose to vote early, partly to stop receiving so much campaign material once he's removed from the active voter list. Another French expat living there, who hasn't yet obtained US citizenship and is therefore unable to vote, expresses a similar desire for a less polarized atmosphere and a middle ground between the two main candidates. A third French expat echoes this wish for a less tense environment but feels that, realistically, the election outcome will have little effect on his expat life in the US, aside from influencing his ability to apply for citizenship at one point if he wishes to.
