Some individuals hinted during the campaign that they might leave the country if Donald Trump were re-elected. Will these declarations materialize into actions? Furthermore, how will the United States fare under the reinstated "America First" policy if it loses domestic and international talent?
Should we brace for an emigration wave?
The US presidential election doesn't just affect the United States; it impacts the entire world. The world is still reeling from Trump's unexpected comeback, contradicting all polls. Since the campaign's early days, some Americans have stated they would leave the country if Trump won. These claims aren't new. In 2016, several locals planned to emigrate if Trump won. Such declarations have rarely been acted upon. In the past, following George W. Bush's reelection or during the Vietnam War, Americans expressed their opposition to the existing policies by promising to leave the country.
According to global mobility experts, these declarations rarely materialize. Surveys show that the main reasons for moving abroad are typically to improve quality of life, work, and career opportunities or to experience a new culture and learn a language. Leaving due to political opposition does not appear to be a reason. However, some believe this election could have a stronger impact on emigration desires.
Americans emigrating: A long-standing trend
The trend of Americans leaving the United States predates Trump's recent return to power. This wave of emigration is driven by a blend of discontent with conservative politics, concerns over increasing violence—especially related to firearms—and fears of economic decline.
In 2016, a diverse group, including retirees, workers, and families, decided to relocate. Their shared motives include seeking better control over their purchasing power, enhancing their quality of life, and living in what they perceive as a "fairer" society. Popular destinations for these expatriates are European countries like Spain, Portugal, and France, as well as Canada, Australia, Mexico, and Thailand.
Conversely, there are Americans on the opposite end of the political spectrum who also consider emigrating in response to Democratic policies. The most recent elections revealed that individuals ready to leave if Kamala Harris won are eyeing the same countries as their counterparts but cite opposition to Democratic stances as their reason.
Both groups show a strong determination to relocate, a trend that has prompted entrepreneurs to start businesses facilitating the mobility process for Americans. However, the transition is challenging. Those fleeing conservatism in the US often find themselves confronting the rise of far-right movements in their new homes abroad, adding complexity to their search for a more ideal setting.
The cost of living drives young Americans abroad
For many in Generation Z, the dream of leaving the United States stems more from necessity than a fascination with foreign cultures. These young would-be emigrants are primarily driven by the high cost of living and inadequate wages at home. The primary catalyst for their desire to leave is the escalating cost of living, a critical issue that was notably absent from recent presidential debates.
Student debt is a significant burden for this generation. As of June 2024, student loan debt in the US has ballooned to approximately $1.7 trillion, marking a 42% increase over the last decade. Around 43 million Americans are saddled with student loans, including one-quarter of those under the age of 40. The rising tuition fees thrust many into financial instability before they even entered the workforce.
This issue is especially poignant for young Americans from immigrant backgrounds, who also face increasing discrimination, further fueling their emigration plans. Despite the Biden administration's attempt in September 2023 to alleviate this burden through the SAVE (Saving on a Valuable Education) plan, which aimed to partially cancel student debt, an appeals court halted the initiative in August 2024, citing a violation of constitutional rules.
Disillusioned, many young people no longer see the "American dream" of owning a home and securing a stable job as attainable. Experts are monitoring this trend with concern, recognizing that a potential mass exodus could negatively affect American economic growth in the medium to long term. However, some young expatriates have discovered a successful strategy: teleworking from abroad, blending the lower cost of living overseas with their American incomes.
United States: A shift in expat preferences
As the US presidential election approached, the Expat Choice Awards by Greenback Expat Tax Services highlighted shifting preferences among expatriates, with the United States notably absent from the list of favored destinations. Instead, the United Kingdom topped the rankings, followed by Canada, Germany, France, and Australia. Despite its tightened immigration policies, the UK continues to attract a significant number of expats. Similarly, Canada, Australia, and France have also implemented stricter immigration measures but remain popular choices.
The trend of foreigners leaving the US, however, extends further back. The number of European immigrants to the US has been on a decline since the 1980s. In 2022, there were just over 4.7 million European immigrants, making up about 10% of the total immigrant population in the US, according to the Migration Policy Institute. A slight majority of these immigrants (41%) have familial ties to American citizens, and 30% have acquired their Green Card. Increasingly, Europeans are choosing to leave the US for other European countries, leveraging their EU citizenship benefits to work and reside elsewhere within the EU.
This raises the question: Is there an increasing desire to emigrate among those holding permanent residency? While it is too soon for definitive conclusions, there is a palpable rise in concern among foreign nationals. Students are anxious about potential increases in tuition fees and limitations on visa numbers, while workers are worried about more stringent visa issuance conditions and family reunification policies. For now, the sentiment remains one of cautious observation.
