This past year has been pivotal, marked by significant elections, sweeping immigration reforms, persistent labor shortages, and evolving demographic trends. Additionally, we saw notable shifts in expatriation patterns. Let's delve into these major developments that shaped 2024.
2024: A global election year
In 2024, a staggering 3 billion people were eligible to cast their votes in elections across 77 countries, including Taiwan, South Africa, Senegal, Finland, Slovakia, Pakistan, India, Venezuela, Portugal, the United Kingdom, the European Union, Algeria, Romania, and Namibia. The U.S. presidential election was particularly noteworthy, drawing global interest due to its potential implications for immigration policies and international relations. These elections not only determine local and national leadership but also influence the lives of foreign residents, who, while not voters themselves, feel the impacts of these political shifts.
Between progress and the status quo: A global snapshot
In Taiwan, the election of progressive candidate Lai Ching-te on January 13 marked a significant political shift, celebrated as a "victory for democracy." His presidency, however, has sparked tension with Beijing despite receiving widespread support from the international community. Since his victory, local and international observers have noted a looming "constitutional crisis," driven by the opposition of two pro-Chinese parties in Parliament, raising concerns of a potential "Hong Kong-like scenario." Amidst these tensions, Taiwan is actively seeking to bolster its appeal to foreign talent.
Meanwhile, Indonesia's election results on March 20 heralded Prabowo Subianto as the new leader, succeeding President Joko Widodo, whose policies he pledges to continue. This decision has stirred anxiety among human rights advocates. To enhance its allure to affluent expatriates, Indonesia is promoting incentives like the Second Home Visa and the digital nomad visa.
On March 24, Senegal reaffirmed its democratic credentials by electing Bassirou Diomaye Faye, consolidating its reputation as "the most democratic country in West Africa." A favorite destination for French-speaking retirees, Senegal has been a magnet for foreign investors since 2018. The new president, aiming to increase the nation's economic appeal, is taking bold steps to reorganize the economy and renegotiate oil and mining contracts previously deemed disadvantageous to the country.
Global political shifts and their impact on immigration
During the period of June 6-9, European citizens, including many expatriates, participated in elections to choose their Members of European Parliament (MEPs). The political climate was tense, with the far right gaining traction across the EU. Although the conservatives maintained their lead, the results underscored the far right's ascent, with significant attention on the Franco-German axis. In France, the National Rally emerged victorious, while in Germany, the ruling coalition lost ground to both the conservative and far-right factions.
In the United Kingdom, a sweeping victory for the Labour Party on July 5 marked the end of a 14-year conservative reign. The pro-European stance of new Prime Minister Keir Starmer, while not reversing Brexit, seeks a "more constructive" relationship with the EU. His priorities include revamping the economy and making adjustments to the point-based immigration system established in 2021, aiming to reduce net migration yet align with the conservative vision.
The U.S. presidential election on November 5 was the year's most closely watched electoral event. Following the unexpected resignation of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris's entry into the race, Donald Trump regained the presidency. Trump's subsequent announcements, many focusing on immigration, have signaled a likely tightening of policies. Expatriates and foreign workers are bracing for more stringent regulations, particularly regarding the acquisition of work permits.
Immigration reform trends in key expat destinations
Amid demographic declines and notable labor shortages in various industries, major countries favored by expatriates are increasingly adopting stricter immigration policies.
Canada
Canada witnessed significant immigration policy changes in 2024. On January 22, Immigration Minister Marc Miller announced a temporary reduction in the issuance of study permits, setting the cap at 364,000 for 2024, which marks a 35% decrease from the previous year. Although the actual number issued rose to 485,000, future allocations will shrink to 437,000 in 2025, a further 10% cut. On October 10, Quebec declared an even more stringent measure, aiming to halve the number of international students, exempting programs taught in French. This provincial decision follows declining enrollment figures and mixed reactions to the federal strategy.
These regulatory adjustments align with the federal government's broader objective to reduce the intake of permanent residents from 500,000 in previous years to 395,000 in 2025 and 380,000 in 2026. Additionally, on September 18, Miller revealed plans to decrease the issuance of Spousal Open Work Permits (SOWP) by 50,000 over the next three years. In a bid to promote local employment, the federal government has also increased the required hourly wage for high-wage positions by 20% (an additional 5 to 8 Canadian dollars, depending on the province), with even more stringent requirements for low-wage roles. These changes took effect on November 8, reflecting a determined shift toward tightening immigration as part of Canada's workforce strategy.
United Kingdom
Under the Labour Party's leadership, the United Kingdom maintained several of the Conservative Party's restrictive immigration measures in 2024. From January 1, family reunification for international students was largely abolished, except under specific exceptions, and similarly for foreign caregivers in nursing homes starting March 11. Additionally, the Immigration Health Surcharge saw a 66% increase on February 6. On April 4, significant changes included replacing the "shortage occupation list" with an Immigration Salary List restricted to approximately twenty professions and raising the salary threshold for skilled worker visas from 26,200 to 38,700 British pounds. Following this, the minimum income requirement for family reunification visas was increased from 18,600 to 29,000 British pounds on April 11.
Further solidifying this stance, Prime Minister Keir Starmer rejected a young mobility program for individuals aged 18 to 30, a move he confirmed in Brussels on October 2. This decision dampened EU hopes, as the program was perceived to be too reminiscent of free movement, conflicting with the UK's strategy to reduce both legal and illegal immigration. Despite this, Starmer has pledged to forge a "new relationship" with the EU.
Starmer has placed a high priority on employing British citizens. On November 28, he announced plans to reform the points-based immigration system. A Migration Advisory Committee is currently reviewing the dependence of various sectors on foreign workers. Should any sector be deemed overly reliant on immigration, access to the points-based permits will be restricted to "relevant visa applications," particularly impacting skilled and shortage occupation visas. Starmer has also indicated that stricter penalties are on the horizon for British companies failing to comply. Despite these efforts, there is significant concern within the health sector, which continues to emphasize its dependence on foreign labor for effective functioning.
Australia
On December 11, 2023, Australia's Labor government announced a strategic plan to scale back immigration levels, noting a significant post-pandemic surge with over 500,000 temporary migrants arriving in 2022 alone. The plan targets a reduction by half for the 2024-2025 period, largely in response to public concerns over skyrocketing real estate prices—a challenge also faced by Canada and the United Kingdom. While some experts argue that the housing crises in these countries cannot be solely attributed to immigration and advise caution, Australia has chosen to proceed with its policy adjustments.
Several measures were implemented to curb the influx of foreigners, including students and temporary workers. On May 10, the income threshold for study permits was raised from 24,505 to 29,710 Australian dollars (AUD). Starting July 1, the government abolished "visa hopping"—the practice of switching from one visa type to another—and increased student visa fees significantly from 710 AUD to 1,600 AUD. Additionally, on September 23, a cap was set to limit foreign student enrollments to 270,000 by 2025, a sharp decline from the 577,000 recorded in the 2022-2023 period.
In a move towards attracting a different demographic, the government terminated its Golden Visa program in January, shifting focus towards encouraging the immigration of young, skilled talents and enhancing efforts to combat money laundering. This shift represents a significant realignment of Australia's immigration strategy, focusing on long-term economic and social stability.
United States
The beginning of 2024 saw significant changes in U.S. immigration policy under President Biden's administration. In a move to support the families of foreign workers, about 100,000 automatic work authorizations were extended to the spouses and children of those holding an H-1B visa. This initiative aimed to protect 250,000 young adults who are children of legal expatriates but faced deportation threats. The protection of these children was further solidified into law.
However, holders of H-1B and L-1 (intra-company transfer) visas faced substantial fee increases in April: H-1B visa fees rose by 70%, from $460 to $780, and L-1 visa fees increased by 201%, from $460 to $1,385. This increase comes at a challenging time for the tech sector, which has been experiencing significant layoffs. To mitigate potential mass expulsions, especially since expatriates have only 60 days to secure new employment post-layoff, the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) began authorizing extensions of stay. In response to these developments, major corporations such as Google have entered the political arena, urging the government to reform immigration policies to better attract and retain foreign talent.
On a broader scale, the Biden administration sought to blend firm immigration control with humanitarian considerations. In April, cities like Chicago championed the cause of undocumented workers by advocating for their eligibility for work permits through an expansion of the Temporary Protected Status Program, aimed at those who have awaited regularization for decades. On June 18, marking the 12th anniversary of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program, Biden announced an easing of Green Card regulations for long-term illegal immigrants and the so-called "Dreamers"—children who entered the U.S. illegally and grew up within its borders.
As the year closes and the Trump administration takes over, the durability of these reforms is uncertain. The new administration has signaled intentions to tighten both legal and illegal immigration through various measures, including revising birthright citizenship and tightening regulations on H-1B, H-4, and F-1 student visas, alongside increasing tariffs on foreign companies. This potential policy shift poses significant questions about the future landscape of U.S. immigration.
2024: The rise of digital nomadism
Digital nomadism has truly come into its own in 2024, with the concept gaining further international traction. This year, Japan, South Korea, Italy, and Kenya have joined an expanding list of countries that offer a digital nomad visa, already including nations such as the United Arab Emirates, Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Mexico, Brazil, Croatia, Germany, Hungary, Greece, Mauritius, Seychelles, Namibia, Thailand, Vietnam, and Australia. These visas vary widely in terms of duration—from a few months to several years—and often include options for renewal. In some cases, they can even serve as a stepping stone towards permanent residency and citizenship.
The growing popularity of digital nomad visas is largely driven by their potential to boost local tourism economies. Digital nomads bring the economic benefits of tourists—spending on local services and products—without the associated costs typically borne by the state, such as healthcare, since they are required to maintain their own health insurance and prove a sufficient independent income from abroad without taking local jobs.
For many expatriates, particularly young professionals, the digital nomad lifestyle is an attractive model. It offers them the flexibility to build an international career while experiencing different cultures and environments. This trend has gained momentum following the global health crisis, reflecting a broader shift towards balancing professional achievements with personal fulfillment and living out one's dreams—a concept increasingly essential to the new generation of the workforce.
Navigating labor shortages and demographic decline through immigration
As labor shortages persist and populations age, several countries are turning to more flexible immigration policies to address these challenges. A prime example is Germany's reform in March 2024, which introduced a host of measures aimed at easing the integration of non-European workers. These measures include streamlined procedures for visa and residence permit applications, enhanced recognition of foreign qualifications, simplified family reunification processes for skilled workers, expanded work opportunities for non-European students, and facilitated training acquisition. The Bertelsmann Foundation underscores the urgency of these reforms, suggesting Germany needs to attract 288,000 foreign workers annually until 2040 to maintain its economic stability.
Spain, under the leadership of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, is also proactive in embracing immigration as a solution to demographic and labor market challenges. Sánchez advocates for reduced processing times for work permits, more accessible family reunification, and loosened restrictions for non-European students, promoting a more open legal immigration framework.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) recognizes immigration as a critical component of economic growth, not only for major expatriation hubs but also for other countries seeking to rejuvenate their workforces. Japan exemplifies this approach amidst its own demographic crises, with a birth rate at historic lows. A December report by the Japan Research Institute calls for significant policy actions by 2030 to counter the accelerating decline in birth rates. In response, the previous administration under Prime Minister Kishida announced plans in April to welcome 800,000 skilled foreign workers over the next five years, signaling a strategic pivot toward immigration to bolster the workforce and sustain economic growth.
Global immigration outlook for 2025
As we look towards 2025, demographic trends are significantly shaping immigration policies across the globe. Countries such as Japan, South Korea, China, Canada, Thailand, Colombia, Italy, Germany, Croatia, Switzerland, Belgium, and the Czech Republic are confronting an accelerating demographic decline. This issue is widespread, affecting nearly every continent. However, France and the United States stand as exceptions in Europe and America, respectively, with more stable demographic trends.
Africa remains distinguished by having the world's youngest population, which is expected to double by 2050. This growth has prompted countries like Germany and Spain to establish agreements with African nations such as Senegal, Morocco, and Mauritania. These agreements are designed to facilitate the migration of young African talents, addressing labor shortages in Europe while aiming to foster mutual benefits. Despite these efforts, there are voices urging for initiatives that bolster Africa's own economies, advocating for development that reduces the need for emigration.
Looking forward, economic immigration will remain a priority for countries dealing with labor shortages. Immigration policies will increasingly favor skilled and highly skilled foreigners, providing more favorable conditions to attract and retain essential talents.
