The US Dollar Vs. The Colombian Peso ............. Who's Up? Who's Down?

Interesting and probably a good thing that he sacked this Ocampo, time will tell.

For myself my life in Colombia as it relates to the exchange rate, living here 6 years now after a hundred visits since 1990, is budgeted on myself enjoying a good life style, not extravagant but comfortable (I own my apartment and car outright) with an exchange rate of about $1.00 USD to 2,000 pesos,........so now even given the inflation with the pesos floating around 4,500 I have no complaints.

Loving life here in Medellin!

Happy weekend to all, everywhere!

Dollar moves up again in post-Ocampo trading.

The U.S. Dollar made an upward move of 46 Pesos on Friday.

The exchange closed out the week ending April 28, 2023,

at a rate of 4699 Pesos to the Dollar.

Source... xe.com USD-COP charting

Maybe it's time to change this thread subject to something more generic... like, "USD vs. COP Chat", or something along those lines.

@ChineduOpara

The thread title has been changed!

The old title seemed dated since the Dollar hasn't eclipsed

5000 Pesos in months.

However, I never put the word 'chat' in my thread titles.

Too tame.

cccmedia

Expat.com experts team

The currency bounce.

The chart for the U.S. Dollar versus the Colombian Peso

shows the Dollar was bouncing around during this week's

currency-exchange trading.

The Dollar ended on a downswing, closing the week

at 4559 Pesos to the Dollar, 140 fewer Pesos than

last week's close.

Source... xe.com USD-COP charting

Dollar up only 11 percent over 12 months.

It has been half a year since the U.S. Dollar

was at the 5000-peso level.

The Dollar gained minimal ground this past week,

closing on Friday at 4564 Pesos to the Dollar.

Between May 13 of last year and the close today,

the Dollar overall has gained 11 percent against

the Peso.

Source... xe.com USD-COP charting

4345

Aug. 7, 2022 Petro inauguration 4345 COP to 1 USD

4564

May 13, 2023 after almost one year of Petro 4564 COP to 1 USD

Looking at the exchange rate line over the past year,  when it was clear Colombia would be governed by President Petro, the line is almost horizontal, indicating Francia Marquez and Petro’s very stable influence on the Colombia economy.  The coming 12 months will be equally stable if not better if the US dollar crashes in the next month. Doesn’t dollar devaluation benefit the Colombian peso?

Flawed analysis.

There's a flaw in Futuro's analysis, as it

does not account for the 10 percent rise

in the Dollar's value between Petro's

election and his inauguration.

The Dollar was valued at 3905 Pesos

at the time of the election in June 2022 ..

and rose to 4345 as of Inauguration day

in August.

The rise in the Dollar's value is clearly

not horizontal or close to horizontal

as members can see by viewing the

data source of this post, the one-year

chart at xe.com for USD vs. COP.

cccmedia

South American countries shifting away

from trading in U.S. Dollars.

South American countires are making moves

that are eroding the longtime dominance

of the U.S. Dollar.

Reuters reports that Bolivia is considering

switching from the greenback to the

Chinese Yuan for international trade.

Referencing Brazil and Argentina, the president

of Bolivia, Luis Arce, told a news conference,

"The two largest economies in the region

are already trading with yuan" in agreements

with China. Arce says that's going to be

the way of the future.

Arce says the USA's influence is diminishing

as China has become a bigger and bigger

trading partner with South American countries.

Source... Reuters

OK. ccmedia's analysis may be flawed if we look at change over time comparing Duque and Petro administrations.

Let's look at the performance of the COP the year before Petro, when Duque was president, from May 2021 to May 2022.

Today is May 13, 2023, so let's look at May 15, 2021 to May 15, 2022 (which is before the presidential election was held in 2022, so no Petro influence can be attributed).

Data comes from the xe.com chart which ccmedia referenced ... Under Duque COP was at 3685 on May 15, 2021. A year later, on May 15, 2022 COP was 4104.

So there was a 419 point COP increase from 2021 to 2022 under the Duque administration.

COP is now at 4557 (May 14, 2023) and was at 4354 COP the day Petro became president (August 7, 2022 swearing-in inauguration) ... which is a difference of 203 COP.

So, the increase under Petro (203 COP) is actually less than the increase under the previous president, 203 being less than 419. Twice better under Petro!

Which, I repeat, is evidence of the stability of the economic approach of Petro.

All the pre-election hype about Colombia becoming Venezuela was wrong. The new president (with a 203 COP increase), has a twice lower exchange rate increase than the old president (with a COP 419 increase) in terms of COP to USD rate of exchange.

¡Vamos a vivir sabroso!

USD YUAN reality check.

There are 195 countries in the world. Only 5 use YUAN as trading currency.

There are 33 Latin American/Carribean countries. Only 2 use YUAN as trading currency (Brazil, Argentina).

There are 12 South American countries. The same 2 use YUAN as trading currency.

Concern about the USD may be premature.

At the prospect of de-dollarization, Mr. H of Nomad Capitalist recommends that we have foreign currency accounts all over the world, store gold bars in non-bank vaults, hold crypto and keep the ledgers in overseas vaults, and of course have real estate and other investments overseas.

Wishful thinking, at least for me.

1. foreign currency accounts all over the world,
2. store gold bars in non-bank vaults,
3. hold crypto and keep the ledgers in overseas vaults,
4. have real estate and other investments overseas

===================

1. I have one foreign currency account in Petro's Colombia. Cannot afford more than that.
2. I do not trust gold bars to hold value. In fact, I consider them value-less, and have intentionally not purchased gold, silver, or precious metals because they all depend on the greater fool theory. Gold value also rises and falls. Gold is useless. Cannot be used to purchase groceries in Carulla. Colombian pesos can be used to purchase groceries. The cashiers in Carulla are not fools.
3. I don't trust crypto. The leading cryptocurrencies just recently tumbled to two-month lows thanks to concerns about market liquidity and a regulatory clampdown. Backed by algorithms? I avoid the FOMO herd mentality. See greater fool theory.
4. Real estate incurs present liability. The more you own, the more you pay. A negative investment return. Overseas real estate? Ahoy, matey! Legal nightmares ahead!

I actually feel sorry for Mr. H. Is he relaxed and happy, or is he tense and anxious about losing out on his investments? So many vaults! So many thieves! Life is too short to spend it worrying about investments, properties, and gold.

OK. ccmedia's analysis may be flawed if we look at change over time comparing Duque and Petro administrations.
Let's look at the performance of the COP the year before Petro, when Duque was president, from May 2021 to May 2022.

Today is May 13, 2023, so let's look at May 15, 2021 to May 15, 2022 (which is before the presidential election was held in 2022, so no Petro influence can be attributed).

Data comes from the xe.com chart which ccmedia referenced ... Under Duque COP was at 3685 on May 15, 2021. A year later, on May 15, 2022 COP was 4104.

So there was a 419 point COP increase from 2021 to 2022 under the Duque administration.

COP is now at 4557 (May 14, 2023) and was at 4354 COP the day Petro became president (August 7, 2022 swearing-in inauguration) ... which is a difference of 203 COP.

So, the increase under Petro (203 COP) is actually less than the increase under the previous president, 203 being less than 419. Twice better under Petro!

Which, I repeat, is evidence of the stability of the economic approach of Petro.

All the pre-election hype about Colombia becoming Venezuela was wrong. The new president (with a 203 COP increase), has a twice lower exchange rate increase than the old president (with a COP 419 increase) in terms of COP to USD rate of exchange.

¡Vamos a vivir sabroso!
-@futuroexpat

Huge flaw in Futuro's analysis....

The administration's proposals don't come into effect until one year into a presidency.  For that year, it's still the same ole - same ole as the previous administration.

You don't have to wait until someone steps into presidency.  As soon as Petro was elected, before he stepped foot into office, the Peso lost a few hundred to the dollar.  Petro couldn't understand why, because he wasn't president yet.  I guess his economic degree didn't teach him the money flows where it's safest...and just him being elected was enough for people to run.

It's still early in his presidency.  The only people living sabrosa are his and Francia's families....

DOLLAR DRIFTS DOWNWARD

As noted by ccmedia: on Friday February 10, 2023 the U.S. Dollar was at 4796 Colombian Pesos. Today the U.S. Dollar is valued at 4526 Colombian Pesos, according to xe.com USD-COP charting.

The U.S. Dollar has lost 270 pesos in value recently. Having once been at 5,000 Colombian Pesos the first week of November 2022, the U.S. Dollar has drifted downward and has not reached 5,000 Colombian Pesos again at any time during December 2022, nor at any time during the first five months of 2023. Debbie Downer Dollar.

If it weren't for the fact that I hate elder abuse, I'd say thanks a lot Joe but I really don't think he gets it anymore

@mtbe says: "the money flows where it's safest...and just him being elected was enough for people to run."

Out of Colombia? To USA Dollars? To the USA, a country suffering extreme dysfunction, where USA regional banks are failing? Where USA interest rates are increasing? Where the USA national government is facing a hit on its credit rating? Where a possible USA default on its debt is imminent, and soldiers will not be paid, veterans will not receive benefits, seniors will not receive social security, students will not receive Pell grants? Where the USD is losing value against the Colombian Peso? That is a safe place?

Irrational fear of Petro may have caused an irrational flight of capital to USD, but in that case the money did not flow to where it is "safest" …  LOL.

A choppy week.

It was a choppy week at the Dollar vs. Peso exchange

as the Dollar channeled narrowly in the low 4500's

for the most part.

At Friday's close, the Dollar was valued at

4534 Colombian Pesos.

Source... xe.com USD-COP charting

USD taking a nosedive, now below 4500 COP ... today at 4482 COP ... ooops down to 4480 while I was typing... headed to 4400 in the direction it is falling.

The USD is dropping in all C. and S. American countries, except Venezuela and Argentina.  Nothing to do with Petro's administration.  There is a downside for Colombians as well...

https://www.tiktok.com/@liberatusfinanz … 9291860230

An opinion poll done in Colombia of finance heads estimates 4,600 COP to the dollar at year end.

https://www.larepublica.co/finanzas/enc … no-3620816

@Mr. Barley ... If it is true that Colombia ends the year at 4,600, it would indicate extreme economic stability with Petro as President.

I was very happy to see in early 2023, under President Petro, the CDT yield was 17%. In 2022 under Duque (the last Uribe puppet) my Colombian CDT yield was only 8%. In 2023 at 17%... a doubling of yield with the moderate centrist President Petro.

I would guess 4400 COP at year's end, and my crystal ball has been better than the financial analysts. They were all crying in 2022 that the sky was going to fall and Colombia was going to collapse and become Venezuela.

Things have gone as steady with the USD COP exchange rate... just as I expected things to go with former mayor of Bogotá, President Petro. He knows Colombian economics. This is all good news.

@Futuro:

That's laughable.  A high CDT rate means inflation is high, loans are even at a higher percentage.  While that might be good for those that can invest, it's NOT good for the common Colombian.

Let's just hope Congress keeps Petro at bay like they've been doing.  This 'extreme economic stability' has more to do with what Petro HASN'T been able to do. 

Below 4500.

The U.S. Dollar has lost fully ten percent

of its value versus the Colombian Peso

since it topped 5000 Pesos last November.

The Dollar closed the week ending today,

Friday, May 26, 2023, valued at 4446 Pesos.

That's a drop of 88 Pesos since

last week.

Source... xe.com USD-COP charting

@mtbe ... The Colombian Congress is helping President Gustavo Petro. ¡Vamos a vivir sabroso!

BOGOTA, May 4 (Reuters) - Colombia's Congress on Thursday approved a $247.4 billion four-year development plan, paving the way for the government of leftist President Gustavo Petro to implement social and economic reforms.

@cccmedia ... But there is good news for the Colombian peso!

The weakening US dollar has made Colombia's currency among the world's three-strongest. The COP gained 3.88% against the USD in April 2023. Thank you President Petro! I am so happy for Colombians that their currency is strong.

The historical record of the Colombian Peso (COP) against the US Dollar (USD) does not show that the COP is, or has been strong, from 1992 to the present against the USD.

In October 1992 the rate of exchange was 1 USD = 677 COP.  In May 2023 it was higher than 1 USD = 4650 COP.  Although of course there were ups and downs during this 30+ year period, the trend line was the COP decreasing in value against the USD, the USD increasing in value against the COP.

Go here and select "All" at the bottom of the first graph on the page:

https://tradingeconomics.com/colombia/currency

When Petro won the election for the Colombian Presidency in June of 2022 the COP was around 1 USD = 4100 COP.  It has gotten weaker since then.  Colombians are not thanking him for that...

@OsageArcher ... Over the last 30 years no Colombian president has proposed lessening dependence on oil. President Petro is the first president to do so because he is a visionary and sees the writing on the wall with respect to a gradual moderate sensible green transition away from oil. Petro is a capitalist so he will honor existing exploration and production contracts so that oil revenues can be gradually replaced by growth in other sectors. Colombia will become a world climate leader with Petro's vision, rivaling Denmark's green transition. It just takes intelligence, vision, and political will.

Colombian currency over the last 30 years has been volatile because all the presidents of the past 30 years did not understand structural factors such as dependence on oil. Petro does understand economics and has more political experience than previous presidents, as evidenced by his ability to garner congressional financial support for his various reforms.

I think most people understand that Gustavo Petro is the first popularly elected "leftist" president in our lifetimes (I think Petro is centrist given his meetings with Uribe). Previous to Petro the most popular presidential candidate was Jorge Eliécer Gaitán in 1948. Had Gaitán been elected we would not have had to wait so many decades for Petro. But the Bogotazo happened. Colombian currency was volatile all those decades.

But now Colombia has a new popularly elected so-called "leftist" president. Petro represents ALL of Colombia, including Uribistas (Petro has met to dialog several times with Alvaro Uribe Velez).

We have seen over the last months, since Petro was elected, that the Colombian economy is more stable and the Colombian peso is gaining strength against the USD. Of the Latin American countries Colombia and Brazil (coincidentally both with "leftist" presidents) are gaining the most ground against the USD. According to Bloomberg Data, Colombia's currency in the first half of April 2023 was the third strongest currency in the entire world, with a 3.88% appreciation against the USD. The COP is the strongest in Latin America. Outstanding performance. Thank you President Petro.

The USD could become risky after June 5, 2023. Keep your money in Colombia.

@OsageArcher ... President Petro is the first president to do so because he is a visionary and sees the writing on the wall with respect to a gradual moderate sensible green transition away from oil. Petro is a capitalist so he will honor existing exploration and production contracts so that oil revenues can be gradually replaced by growth in other sectors. Colombia will become a world climate leader with Petro's vision, rivaling Denmark's green transition. It just takes intelligence, vision, and political will.
-@futuroexpat

I guess you aren't around the coffee triangle, that lost a gas pipeline for a few days.  I can just see Petro's transition away from oil now.... Not only will people not be able to cook with gas, electrical plants won't be able to run without gas and will also shut down.  People will start cooking with whatever they can, putting dirty carbon in the air.

Comparing to Denmark:  well...the farmers in Denmark aren't happy, food costs have increased substantially, and they weren't a third world country trying to get to second world status.  They already had/have money.  I notice you didn't compare Sri Lanka's green transition, which is a complete disaster, with people unable to put food on their tables.

How can futuro get away with being such

a Petro fanboy?

Because this is Expat.com and we allow

free expression of speech.

cccmedia

How can futuro get away with being such
a Petro fanboy?
Because this is Expat.com and we allow
free expression of speech.

cccmedia
-@cccmedia

I agree that everyone should have a voice, but Expat.com doesn't allow all free expression of speech.  Several posters have made mention of not seeing their posts, or their posts being removed.

How can futuro get away with being such
a Petro fanboy?
Because this is Expat.com and we allow
free expression of speech.

cccmedia
-@cccmedia
I agree that everyone should have a voice, but Expat.com doesn't allow all free expression of speech. Several posters have made mention of not seeing their posts,

Depends on the forum's assigned moderator that day and whether they think the post is in violation of the code of conduct.

Barley, non-affiliated expert

MTBE,

There is another Expat site that has become

notorious for blocking or removing posts.

Expat.com's teams certainly don't want that

to become the future of our site.

Use PM messaging or the Report function or another

method to ask for an explanation if a post

has been deleted with no commentary

from a moderator or the Home Office.

If  you can't get through or don't receive

a satisfactory response, PM me and I will

attempt to do something.

cccmedia, member of Expat.com experts team

Downward persistence.

A downward trend of the U.S. Dollar that

started one month ago .. persisted this week

in the USD-COP exchange rate.

The Dollar closed the week at 4346 Pesos,

down a couple hundred Pesos from

a week ago.

Source... xe.com charting

USD could lose further value if Fitch Ratings lowers the USA credit rating. The debt ceiling deal does not save the USA from a possible lower credit rating. What counts is repeated brinksmanship, not the eventual last-minute outcome. Friday June 2, 2023 Fitch said “repeated political standoffs” over the federal government’s borrowing limit “lowers confidence in governance on fiscal and debt matters.” The COP is still gaining strength against the USD.

CNN Brazil's man in Beijing has reported

that Brazilian presidente Lula, on a recent

visit to China, proposed a

new currency to be used in trading amongst

the BRICS nations. The acronym stands for

Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

Since the trip, Lula said in Brasilia

that several countries want to join BRICS.

Viz:

At youtube.com: New currency proposed for

BRICS bloc .... to rival Dollar. Also credit

Shanghai Eye.

Here are the 19 countries supposedly interested in joining the BRICS group of nations.

Noticeably absent is Colombia (whose centrist president is called "leftist" by some).

1. Indonesia

2. Mexico

3. Turkey

4. South Korea

5. Philippines

6. Pakistan

7. Bangladesh

8. Vietnam

9. Egypt

10. Nigeria

11. Iran

12. Thailand

13. Argentina

14. Algeria

15. Iraq

16. Uzbekistan

17. Ethiopia

18. Democratic Republic of Congo

19. Sudan

"Brics draws membership requests from 19 nations before summit"

The Business Standard/Bloomberg,

The strong Colombia peso is at 4296, continuing to gain strength against the USD.

Fitch Ratings speaks well of the Colombian economy. Watchword is stability.

"Inflation in April 2023 fell for the first time in several months and cost inflation is beginning to slow. Fitch expects more moderate inflation in 2H23. Within Fitch’s Colombian international portfolio, 95% of corporates hold a Stable Outlook, while 85% of corporates in the national portfolio hold a Stable Outlook. Colombian rated companies should be able to weather more challenging conditions. Regulated companies, which account for a majority of the portfolio, have robust credit profiles, adequate leverage levels and comfortable liquidity positions..."

"The dogs bark but the [Petro] caravan moves on” --old Arabic Proverb

Dollar weaker versus the Colombian Peso.

The Peso persisted in showing strength

versus the U.S. Dollar on the USD-COP

exchange on Monday.

The Dollar is valued at just 4282 Pesos

after breaking downward and past the

4300-Pesos marker today.

Source... USD-COP charting via xe.com

COP at 4596 on May 11, 2023.

COP at 4259 on June 6, 2023 at 3:44 PM UTC

In one month the USD has shown a straight-line decline of 337, declining in value day after day after day, which I think is USD losing about 8% of its value in just one month, compared to a strong COP.

Keep your money in Colombia! There doesn't seem to be an end in sight for USD devaluation.