Property Prices in Bulgaria

I have been following the housing market in Bulgaria since the late 90s. The properties were a bargain at that time.  I almost bought a 3- story house in Sozopol for $60K. Those were tough times for the Bulgarian people. Huge inflation.Bulgarian money was worth nothing. People tried to have accounts in dollars if they could.

Nowadays the same house will cost 10 times more at the Black Sea region. Despite the high market prices a lot of those houses are not sold( my personal observation). The sellers are patiently waiting for the right customers. There is quite a lot of properties for sale in the whole country and not a huge demand.I believe it is a buyer's market. So the key is :good negotiation tactics. I personally would not buy any property without seeing it. No POA to anyone. I would hire a good lawyer to make sure all the paperwork is in order.

The prices  for everything  have gone up in Bulgaria  especially since Covid and they continue to go up like in the US. I have seen cheaper properties in other nicer parts of the EU. I do not think the prices of the real estate in Bulgaria  will go up much more. Even it is possible a crash may happen.

My personal advice is: if you are committed to live in Bulgaria start searching  for your ideal house now, negotiate and buy it. Have an agency monitor it /also install alarm to be on a safe side until you move to Bulgaria. If you are not committed, rent a  place for a year and see how it feels  to live in Bulgaria.

@TonyFF Are you in BG?  I thought it was a safe and friendly place to live in general, but I am sensing a bit of negativity.

@TonyFF

these are good points and I concur with your thinking.

I expect a global recession in the next 1-2 yrs, it usually takes longer for RE to respond, but it eventually trickles there. Int. rates globally have been up for over a yr now, job loses, at least in US are mounting every month, don't know what the situation in the job mkt is in BG, but am certain that the changing sentiment elsewhere will find its way to BG too. I may be all wrong in that assessment and if in BG most properties are owned instead of mortgaged like in the rest of the world, the RE pr. in BG will not go down much, timing is always the trick.

you mentioned that you saw pr lower comparatively in other EU countries, do you mind listing them and the cities/towns?

Banks do what banks want to do, control people's spending and poverty.

@buckleyps

common sense, peace of mind:

2 years ago I met a British guy at the Black see who managed properties of seasonal owners .  We had a chat and he  told me that  some of those properties  were robbed.

" I told them to get  security systems but they did not; too bad".

@adardom

To respond to your question : it really depends on what property you are looking for. I like small  village houses with big yards/gardens. Far away from people, busy roads, annoying neighbors.

There are bargains in Greece, Italy ( for ex. Potenza;  or seaside towns like Bari, Ancona) , France ( Aquitaine area for ex).  Very affordable prices. I do not care about Spain or Portugal.

@TonyFF

great, thank you for those examples. I am more of city dweller, somehow that village life doesn't appeal too much to me. I'm looking for convenience and easy access to airports, medical facilities, supermarkets and farmer's mkts. I see myself in a smaller town not too far from a bigger city. I like the sea, so anywhere near it is fine. I could see myself buying a plot and building a new place, not into renovating old houses, usually endless pits. I like modern style and somehow doubt that any of those village houses in BG are modern, at least on the inside. Im still not retired and taxes are important, hence BG; seems to be the lowest tax in EU, but if they follow the US hegemony and EU communism, then it won't be that way for too much longer. At least the weather there is still good and cost of living pretty low.

@adardom

What do you mean by EU communism?

@SimCityAT

the enforcement... "do this or else" and " you will do this, that and the other thing or we won't give you what's yours by the treaty" , isn't that why UK left the so called union? that is on the country level and there are plenty of enforcement on individual groups and businesses. about the only freedom in the EU is your ability to still (but probably to change) move about between the countries, they already tried to take that away during the last plandemic, next time they impose this, it will be permanent. just my opinion.seems I broke my own rule with re to this comment, did not mean to step on any toes.

@adardom

A "global recession", or other major external economic shock, will knock Bulgaria back just as any other country.

Bulgaria went through very tough times around 1990 with the fall of the USSR, and this affected all the former Soviet states. Then around 2008 the US Subprime Crisis really had a big effect here, especially on unfinished construction projects. There are still leftovers from those days in Bansko and Sunny Beach which have only recently been finished (or a few even remain unfinished).

It's tough to forecast real estate price trends, so you certainly can't expect us to factor in global macroeconomic factors too! :-)

Plus, you're not even considering moving here until 2026... and even then you'll likely rent... so (if I understand you correctly) you don't want us to analyze what's happening today and in the near future... you're asking what's gonna be the outlook in 2027! Who the hell knows that?! I'd just say, if you're serious, pop over and buy a little place now. :-)

On the plus side, Bulgaria joined the EU in 2007 and has seen a lot of benefits from this, especially in terms of EU structural and project funds which have contributed to a lot of infrastructure (including A1 Sofia-Plovdiv-Burgas and A2 Sofia-VT-Varna motorways). Even today, those funds are still instrumental, for example in the current upgrade of the rail links (high-speed train Serbia-Plovdiv-Istanbul with new trains - with toilets!! - and eticketing).

Past performance is no guarantee of future returns, but the trend has been up for the last 15 years (since the bottom of the subprime-induced crash here).

Coming soon we expect to join the Eurozone and have full Schengen (land/sea/air borders). Bulgaria has had a leva-euro peg for many years which they expect to dampen price increases. But most joiners saw some price inflation, and open borders (to people and money) tends to increase demand from those in the rest of the Bloc. Certainly, I'm not betting on prices going down.

Whether Bulgarian real estate is a good asset class, I don't express my support that strongly. I'm sure there are easier and more profitable ways to invest. But if you buy yourself a place to live here, then I don't see it as likely to lose you money in the next couple of years.

I'm biased. I've had a good experience here, both in terms of lifestyle and property investment. So that will, of course, influence my outlook.

But I do think Bulgaria is a great place to live. IF you already have savings/income/pension that you created from years working in a wealthier country. AND/OR you are a remote worker / Digital Nomad who can generate a high foreign income while enjoying low local costs. The former camp includes many Bulgarians who worked in UK/Spain/Germany for the last 10-20 years and then returned. It's obviously way more difficult for the locals, and it's definitely not a cheap country for them.

What I observe is that while it's statistically a poor country (still the poorest in the EU, I think), that's not the same as saying everybody is poor. There are plenty of very wealthy people here, and a significant middle class of those who have decent jobs/income.

Some of that money does go to some villages in terms of renovation of family homes and holiday/weekend homes. And lots of that money (supplemented by bank loans) goes to city properties. It strikes me there is strong growth in the big cities (Sofia, Plovdiv, Varna, Burgas) as this is where the jobs are. There are many younger Bulgarians who are going to these cities instead of leaving for elsewhere in the EU, which is very good news. And for Bulgarians, I'm not sure that the alternative for spare cash (e.g. a deposit account) is particularly attractive.

@adardom

You have been away for many years, so it seems you are rather misinformed about the EU. It's not a "so-called" union, it actually is a union. A trading/customs Bloc of countries with harmonized regulations and standards.

Everywhere has laws and enforcement in the "do this or else" (or "don't do this or else") mould. :-)

Bulgaria perhaps has less enforcement (poorer = less money for police and various inspectors), so there is (currently) more freedom here. But I doubt this is a permanent feature.

I don't think the UK was ever threatened with the Treaty, as you suggest. The main angst (then and now) is immigration, and therefore the EU's Freedom of Movement was a huge headache.

As Freedom of Movement (of citizens, companies, products/services, money) is a founding principle of the EU, and enshrined in its various Directives, it's nonsensical to suggest the EU might take this away. Besides, I can still move to the UK or Turkey even without Freedom of Movement (it's just a bit harder to get through residence formalities). Even through most of the Pandemic, you could still travel between EU countries (and I did). You just had to comply with a few basic rules (masking, recent test result). Hardly a major inconvenience!

@adardom

I would like to clarify that I am used to a  big yard, the neighbors to be so far away that I never see/hear them.

I like  the proximity to a town for the conveniences( 10-15 minutes drive).  I like the peace of nature trees, plants , birds and my pets.No apartments for me   The areas I gave you as an examples  have it all - city and country living.

I am fascinated by the small villages in Italy and very respectful of the village people who work all day there, go to church on Sundays  and live close to nature.

@TonyFF I don't get it. Do you have your own house in Bulgaria or you are looking to buy one?

@Atanas Denchev

Neither at this point.

    @SimCityAT
the enforcement... "do this or else" and " you will do this, that and the other thing or we won't give you what's yours by the treaty" , isn't that why UK left the so called union? that is on the country level and there are plenty of enforcement on individual groups and businesses. about the only freedom in the EU is your ability to still (but probably to change) move about between the countries, they already tried to take that away during the last plandemic, next time they impose this, it will be permanent. just my opinion.seems I broke my own rule with re to this comment, did not mean to step on any toes.
   

    -@adardom

Thats not communism

    I have been following the housing market in Bulgaria since the late 90s     -@TonyFF


How did you manage that one in the 90s then?

@mickeyhart

My wife and I were in Sozopol in the late 90s. We stayed in a nice house with a lanai restaurant.

The owner approached me at that time  and asked me if I was interested to buy the house.

That was quite a temptation, I admit.

Since we were way too young to retire and did not want to make rash decisions we decided it was not a good idea.

P.S. For anyone that does not  know about me: I have been married to my Bulgaria wife for many, many years.

We live in the San Francisco Bay area. We are going to explore Bulgaria for a year to see if it we like it or not.

In regards to buying a house- I am still a flaky buyer. We do not have to move to Bulgaria: we can live anywhere in  Europe, no problem. Since we both love Bulgaria we will give it a shot.