Is Malta making a BIG mistake?

My feeling is that Malta is a small densely populated island with out any strategic value.

ISIS would have a huge logistic problem  supplying and fighting a war on the Island.

Currently ISIS are fighting in areas where the majority of the local population and culture is one of flee not fight and tend to be local skirmishes not wars!

The culture on the Maltese islands is a western one and as such the tendency would be for the population to resist.

The majority of ISIS are not trained fighting troops but trained fanatics who fight and no match in a face to face with disciplined and well trained western army.

Just my opinion as an  ex vet with some experience of local  "wars".


Terry

Interesting thread!  Look forward to more input by those folks with experienced opinions on the Libyan question.  Difficult to know how things will proceed.

I acknowledge that my scenario may appear to be ‘extreme and I agree with some of Tearnet's assessment (and I too am a ‘vet’, similarly qualified) yet given their (ISIS) extremism, I feel that the potential threat cannot be ignored.
How many other conflicts have arisen out of assumptions and assessments of ‘little or no threat?
ISIS are also very well funded and they also seem to be intent upon bringing the rest of the world into conflict with them.
Malta’s Forces would be able to do little, if anything, to resist any military action against them and even less, I would suggest, against any extremist activity on the islands.
The people may be ‘western’ but how would they be able to resist without assistance and for how long?
One thing is for sure, in my opinion; Europe should be doing a lot more to counter their activities, militarily, legally and politically.

With all due respect, I think you have to be careful about starting threads of this nature as at the moment it is baseless scaremongering, even if that wasn't your intention. Aside from its geographic location, I see no reason why ISIS would want to set up home here, or even have a presence.

Pig Ear wrote:

With all due respect, I think you have to be careful about starting threads of this nature as at the moment it is baseless scaremongering, even if that wasn't your intention. Aside from its geographic location, I see no reason why ISIS would want to set up home here, or even have a presence.

It may be "baseless scaremongering" to you but then you live in Brighton.
A long way from  Libya and the thousands of young men arriving in Italy and Malta every month!.

Terry

As my job is to study security issues worldwide predominately in Islamic regions presently in conflict. 

My children are at school in Malta and I am now considering contingency measures as I believe Malta is walking blindly into the conflict. I see young teenage Libyan men driving obscene coloured Bentley convertibles baseball caps on back to front etc etc .. The huge rise in Shisha bars due to demand are a slight warning sign in my opinion. 

I stay in a number of locations while in Malta and I stay with local friends. Maltese friends are really oblivious to the risk, not only of conflict as I have seen wounded fighters treated in Malta from rebels to Gaddafi supporters which will no doubt be very difficult to ensure revenge killing does not spill over into the streets.presently. Malta is allowing both sides to base themselves on the island in a neutral stance which has worked to date.  Bringing ISIS into the frame changes all this feeling of security . Whether you believe ISIS are the dogs of the USA gone rogue or not it is irrelevant they are "winning" swathes of countries with an unstoppable force. As many local refugees endemically support there cause it will be easy to strike a weak NATO partner such as Malta using refugee status supporters or people under duress as was used in Iraq where I worked for two years, 2004-2005.

Taking a family hostage behead a family member usualy a child or mother/father then threaten the rest of the children with the same fate if the refugee family member does not perform an act of terror.  He or she will be supplied with target and equipment from third parties. Malta can be reached   easily by boat. Please be aware that this will not go away ISIS cannot be bombed into submission nor can we use land troops., saying that we have the capacity to use special forces in a role not covered by media outrage WHICH ISIS can use much better than our governments.  I would not panic anyone the Maltese coast is patrolled and Malta has camera monitoring systems. Depending  whether they allocate a budget to ensure the intelligence network on the island listen in the bars and handle the agents proffesional.  They will have agents from Libya on the island without any doubt . Malta is the rock  in a hard place.  Either it becomes 100% overtly in supper of NATO attacks and gets funding to bolster it's defences or it sits back avoids media political posturing and quietly resolves the rules of EU allowing the free movement. The sinking  boats with tragic consequenoes is a deliberate tactic as the boats would be sent back if sea worthy .. sinking assures rescue at the tragic loss of life seen present but be aware it's a tactic. Anyhow enough ! if anyone would like to talk further drop me a line . I shall be back in Malta I hope next week. Regards and safe travels

It's news to me that Malta is a member of NATO!
Constitutionally Malta is neutral.
Please explain ''ISIS are the dogs of the USA gone rogue''.

Ronnie Dunnett wrote:

As my job is to study security issues worldwide predominately in Islamic regions presently in conflict. 

My children are at school in Malta and I am now considering contingency measures as I believe Malta is walking blindly into the conflict. I see young teenage Libyan men driving obscene coloured Bentley convertibles baseball caps on back to front etc etc .. The huge rise in Shisha bars due to demand are a slight warning sign in my opinion. 

I stay in a number of locations while in Malta and I stay with local friends. Maltese friends are really oblivious to the risk, not only of conflict as I have seen wounded fighters treated in Malta from rebels to Gaddafi supporters which will no doubt be very difficult to ensure revenge killing does not spill over into the streets.presently. Malta is allowing both sides to base themselves on the island in a neutral stance which has worked to date.  Bringing ISIS into the frame changes all this feeling of security . Whether you believe ISIS are the dogs of the USA gone rogue or not it is irrelevant they are "winning" swathes of countries with an unstoppable force. As many local refugees endemically support there cause it will be easy to strike a weak NATO partner such as Malta using refugee status supporters or people under duress as was used in Iraq where I worked for two years, 2004-2005.

Taking a family hostage behead a family member usualy a child or mother/father then threaten the rest of the children with the same fate if the refugee family member does not perform an act of terror.  He or she will be supplied with target and equipment from third parties. Malta can be reached   easily by boat. Please be aware that this will not go away ISIS cannot be bombed into submission nor can we use land troops., saying that we have the capacity to use special forces in a role not covered by media outrage WHICH ISIS can use much better than our governments.  I would not panic anyone the Maltese coast is patrolled and Malta has camera monitoring systems. Depending  whether they allocate a budget to ensure the intelligence network on the island listen in the bars and handle the agents proffesional.  They will have agents from Libya on the island without any doubt . Malta is the rock  in a hard place.  Either it becomes 100% overtly in supper of NATO attacks and gets funding to bolster it's defences or it sits back avoids media political posturing and quietly resolves the rules of EU allowing the free movement. The sinking  boats with tragic consequenoes is a deliberate tactic as the boats would be sent back if sea worthy .. sinking assures rescue at the tragic loss of life seen present but be aware it's a tactic. Anyhow enough ! if anyone would like to talk further drop me a line . I shall be back in Malta I hope next week. Regards and safe travels

Perhaps you can  answer a couple of questions for me?

When did Malta join NATO?

Where are the ISIS bases on Malta?

Terry

In six months I'll be living in the Maltese Islands with my young family. I've also lived there before. I would say there's probably more threat of living in Brighton than anywhere in Malta anyway. This kind of fearmongering is what creates division and ultimately no good comes from it.

Pig Ear wrote:

With all due respect, I think you have to be careful about starting threads of this nature as at the moment it is baseless scaremongering, even if that wasn't your intention. Aside from its geographic location, I see no reason why ISIS would want to set up home here, or even have a presence.

You obviously do not read the Maltese press, International press, comments or other observations so far from here.
This is not scaremongering but a debate.
'With all due respect' of course.

Scare mongering .. mmh well I guess the guys in the Corinthia hotel said the same while they were warned they said it's just scaremongering it will never happen. Twin towers was informed bit some say it was scare mongering. Well I have been in and out of Malta since 1982. I've seen a lot of changes . I am extremely anti conflict as I've spent my life in conflicts. Let's see what happens this summer once the weather calms and ISIS who are aiming at Spain next wil bring calm waters easy communication and access.

Malta presently has two Libyan Embassies.. The recognised government and the rebel government with two miles of each other. In Libya they bare kidnapping murdering each other's followers. Malta 180 nautical miles from Libya.

I am worried as my kids go to a school with Libyan kids in it. That makes the school a target by default.  Easy access and close to Embassies.

I will no longer comment on open sources

ISIS have captured the equivalent of Germany and France in land size in a matter of weeks.

Fear mongering and reality are two enimies.  Reality is what had happened ISIS FUNDED and trained by the Western governments to cause havoc in Syria backfired as did Taliban.

These threads are for debate not slandering so debate is a grounded conversation with each person views and opinions and personal opinions only.

Personaly  I feel there is apathy and Malta will end up like the UK with the dogs tail being EU regulation wagging the dog.

Agree the debate issue and we should stick to the issue and the EU membership is a different issue.
But you are incorrect in your assertion that Malta is in NATO, it is constitutionally neutral.
That, in my books, raises the level of risk (as minimal as it may seem to others.)
Also I doubt the presence of cameras and Malta's patrol boats could really prevent much not from a determined 'enemy'.

I think it's the way you put it:

"Worst case scenario is that Malta is overrun, becomes ISIS held territory and then has to be fought over again."

Thousands of people read these forums and if they were to read this thread they would think there is barbed wire on the beaches and women running terrified from the streets. So how many ISIS attacks have there been in Malta in the last five years?

I dont agree that discussing it is scaremongering but i do feel a certain poster seems to be doing that .
I dont know who ronnie dunnett is but The majority of his posts have very strong anti racial undertones wether its accusing "foreigners of stealing" or the 2 posts on here. he also said in a previous post
"However the Maltese people are if nothing resilient and I don't think they will stand for any Libyan conflict on the Islands.  I hope and I'm confident the Maltese will come down on them hard."
now  he is saying something completely different.


Redmik- its an interesting discussion about whether allowing Libyan business etc onto the island could provoke and attack of some kind , i think whether malta are making a big mistake is something that we really cannot define.
But i would say that we cannot let terroists win and we must not shy away from supporting the innocent and vulnerable because of one particular group though .

also malta relationship with nato is discussed on the NATO website

http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_52108.htm


Malta first joined the Partnership for Peace (PfP) in 1995. It suspended participation in 1996 but reactivated its PfP membership in April 2008. Malta recognises that it can help address emerging security challenges and contribute to international peace, security and stability through the PfP framework.

Then you should also have read this:

I acknowledge that my scenario may appear to be ‘extreme and I agree with some of Tearnet's assessment (and I too am a ‘vet’, similarly qualified) yet given their (ISIS) extremism, I feel that the potential threat cannot be ignored.

NB. the word 'potential'.

redmik wrote:

Then you should also have read this:

I acknowledge that my scenario may appear to be ‘extreme and I agree with some of Tearnet's assessment (and I too am a ‘vet’, similarly qualified) yet given their (ISIS) extremism, I feel that the potential threat cannot be ignored.

NB. the word 'potential'.

i think your right that a potential threat cannot be ignored and i dont think your scaremongering btw , its understandable to be concerned and if we didn't discuss it on this forum we would be doing a disservice to potential expats. When making a descision about where to live you need to know the good and the bad and i think that denying the possibility of Malta links with libya and the close proximity making them a possible target is foolhardy

Rob, they may be PfP but not members.
That doesn't amount to anything, not in reality and certainly not if it comes to any armed defence or intervention.
Note well part of the statement:

Malta shares the partnership values and principles of the protection and promotion of fundamental freedoms and human rights, and the safeguarding of freedom, justice and peace through democracy.

http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm

PS my previous comment was for Pig Ear.

Malta is a very long way from Libya.
The US sixth fleet in between ISIS and Malta.
There are a bout 1,000 Muslims on Malta, with a projected population of just over 1,000 in 2030.
The vast majority won't want anything to do with ISIS.
Libyan state business is trying to escape ISIS, so they aren't a threat.

The whole thread is scare stuff.

Who asked you?

Fred wrote:

Malta is a very long way from Libya.
The US sixth fleet in between ISIS and Malta.
There are a bout 1,000 Muslims on Malta, with a projected population of just over 1,000 in 2030.
The vast majority won't want anything to do with ISIS.
Libyan state business is trying to escape ISIS, so they aren't a threat.

The whole thread is scare stuff.

Libya is closer to malta than the uk is ... there were until recently ferries to libya and malta is still helping the rescue of migrants from Libya

its not that far away at all

i would wonder what being in jakarta has to do with potential threats on malta ..........

redmik wrote:

PS my previous comment was for Pig Ear.

I guessed that i just didnt want you to think i was accusing you , i was simply clarifying a point i had made 
that was all

Oh, and ISIS have no ships.
Maybe they're good swimmers.

Do you honestly believe that Isis went oh we have no ships guess we should only attack local targets , it's not like they all wear big badges saying ISIS members when they travel

Scaremongering is making false accusations to create fear  either in an population or directly to a group or individual.  I being Scottish and a YES voter and very proud to be for my own reasons have seen the British fear mongering system in full swing ..lies upon lies supper by all media and those who feel they would possibly lose money. I don't care about money nor do ISIS they don't need to fully funded and now with there own oilfields producing billions of dollars as we the west keep buying from them cheap . The fear is that a government will act on its own financial benefits either to direct ministers pockets or to a social sector within the country.  ISIS do not worry or fear about how much salary they get they have ground n troops from the UK France USA Germany ie EU countries ..you say there are only 1000 immigrants In Malta. Well again if you actually look closely you will find another story. I was renovating and my contractor hired local refugee labour. From Mali. Turns out my basic Arabic was of no use they Muslim boys who stopped work to pray regular times actually spoken Italian on investigation they had full EU work n permits and had lived in Italy for two years but the Maltese work paid better.
Well they were not refugees but on longer conversation they fully supprted the doctrine OF ISIS the true Islamic Califate now these young men had military training and no family ties .. happily living in Sliema

redmik wrote:

Who asked you?

I'm so sorry I disagree with you, and have the cheek to post an opposing opinion on a public forum.

Omg Muslims living in Malta who aren't refugees panic ....
not all Muslims are terrorists not all terrorist are Muslim

Fred wrote:

Oh, and ISIS have no ships.
Maybe they're good swimmers.

as it is common knowledge they earn millions on daily basis from kidnapping and oil rigs, so i don't think they'll have much trouble in buying boats
besides if they overrun Lybia, they are bound to capture a few vessels there also

someone wrote that Malta has no strategic value, which I think is not entirely true
Malta is great for ISIS to test attack on Europe, plus a gateway to Italy and Vatikan

Fred wrote:

redmik wrote:

Who asked you?

I'm so sorry I disagree with you, and have the cheek to post an opposing opinion on a public forum.

I didn't see any opinion from you I saw you make claims that Malta was a long way away from Libya and about how many Muslims live here

I think on this occasion redmik has a valid point you cannot really add anything of benefit to the conversation as your not living in Malta

robpw2 wrote:

[
I think on this occasion redmik has a valid point you cannot really add anything of benefit to the conversation as your not living in Malta

I disagree. Where I happen to live doesn't mean I haven't spent a long time looking at ISIS.
You have to remember, ISIS are also a threat to Indonesia, but that doesn't get into the newspapers much, so many have no clue about it.

The OP talks about Malta being overrun by ISIS forces, a very unlikely scenario as ISIS has no ships, no crews and are unlikely to get their hands on much, even if they take over Libya.
Even if they did get ships, including a couple of warships, the US sixth fleet would put them on the bottom before they could get anywhere near Malta, and that's before you consider military forces in Italy.

https://militarybases.com/italy/

Frankly, the whole idea of an ISIS invasion of Malta is a silly scare job.

Well the thread has expanded to capacity of ISIS.  THE CHALLENGER IS NOT a physical war it's a war of minds. Sy ops is the new war. We cannot defeat ISIS on the battlefield we can win every firefight get bigger body counts and smash cities and towns from a long distance away. The war is Global the strategy is personal we cannot throw billions of pounds or dollars or euros at them in the form of missiles etc guess what it is not working ... show me where it has worked  why do we keep believing  the government's strategy of killing g as many people as possible that will do it ..Again it is not working we must design new strategy which includes understanding and using the tools they use against us . Egypt UAE Saudi etc must step up on all fronts they will be the first dictators to lose to ISIS unless overnight they join them and save there skin. Then we have a challenge.

ISIS are a dangerous lot, so I have no objection to them being stopped by any means available but....

Whilst they claim to want to attack Rome, I don't believe a word of it.
Take a look at this map of ISIS held areas, with oil fields noted.



The ISIS low ranking cannon fodder may think they're fighting for God, but the top lads are fighting for oil cash. They're getting seriously rich from this.

Then consider ISIS has a fighting strength of about 7,000 men.
Not even close to enough to hold their gains in the oil fields if someone serious attacked them, as Iran proved when it sent two battalions of Iranian Revolutionary Guards against them.
ISIS make easy gains in Iraq because local troops are badly trained and don't have much will to fight, but the Iranians smash ISIS in every battle. Of course, you don't see this reported because politics don't allow it, but it's still happening.

So, how the heck is ISIS going to attack Malta, and why would they do it?

i think Ronnie  -  its a problem - not a challenge - and a bloody big one.

Fred wrote:

Then consider ISIS has a fighting strength of about 7,000 men.
Not even close to enough to hold their gains in the oil fields

you claim that you spent some times checking about ISIS, and yet you make such silly argument

the number of fighters is greatly larger than what you say (although all we have are estimates, still all of them speak about bigger number then you)

Hi Fred,

You've got to watch your step with this lot, since the Malta Forum has been officially declared "off limits" to members of the Experts Team (unless of course we happen to reside on the tiny rock). The reason being that a certain group who make up a mere 1.6% of the population (Maltese account for 95.3%) think they're the true owners and the rest of us are "outsiders".

They seem to overlook the fact that Malta gained independence in 1964 and became a Republic in 74, but what the heck... that doesn't matter much among friends.

We're not allowed to offer opinions on this forum because this elitist clique doesn't want to hear from "outsiders", they "own" the forum, so Fred enter at your own risk.

Gee.... just had a crazy thought pass through my head, if this 1.6% consider everybody else as "outsiders", what would they be called???? They're not part of the 95.3% who are Maltese, so can they really be considered "insiders"??????

Have fun with them, I'm sure you'll be hearing from Julien shortly for having had the unmitigated gall to tread foot on unfriendly territory.

Cheers,
James

Claims regarding ISIS are rather difficult to prove.
The US claims to have killed 6,000 fighters, then claimed there were 31,500 fighters, including 15,000 foreign fighters. 2,000 of these are westerners, including more than 12 Americans.
Wow, 2,000 westerners, including more than 12 Americans - why doesn't that add up?
Of course, these numbers seem to have more than tripled, just as funding for anti ISIS combat operations was being talked about.
How handy is that?
Still not a mention of Iranian actions against ISIS - still, can't do anything that makes an enemy that has never attacked you look good.

Most of the ISIS strength estimates (wild guesses) are based on how many local people ISIS forces have to control, totally ignoring the brutal way ISIS treats prisoners, thus keeping lots of people in terror of them, regardless of how many fighters they can muster.
You may not remember their early history, and how they 'invaded' towns that were empty after major battles, then terrorised the locals, were generally barbaric, but still claimed victory. Victory over nothing, as there were no fighting forces left when they arrived.
As for Iraq, ISIS have won very few actual battles, the poorly trained Iraqi army pretty much being a new army with no fighting spirit at all, just running away from a force known to execute prisoners in the most barbaric of fashions.

James wrote:

Hi Fred,...... the unmitigated gall to tread foot on unfriendly territory.

Cheers,
James

I toyed with the idea of invading and taking total control of Malta, raising a black flag with a sheep logo on it.
However, the only boat I have is my daughter's bath toy but, best case scenario, Malta is overrun by sheep, becomes sheep farmer held territory and then has to be fought over again.
I'm hoping to exploit the low security access to the islands for 'immigrant' Ovine forces.
After all, there are many already on the island, often stopping barrrring to eat grass near building sites, chopping heads off local daisies.
To all Maltesers, your chocolate will be sucked off, then you will be crushed.

My sincere apologies if I made you feel uncomfortable or unwelcome Fred , it's not my intention.

You know wasting  chocolate is an act of war lol
I don't mind sheep but the chocolate is a step too far lol