Absolutely Anything Else
Last activity 26 November 2024 by fluffy2560
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A black market will grow, just like it did between the Netherlands and Germany in the 1970's. A feature for my wife's family was every Sunday to drive across to Gronau and fill all the cars up.- @Cynic
I wasn't aware of that Dutch/German differential. The one I always think of is Venezuela/Colombia. What was the difference between NL and DE way back then in the post-groovy 70s?
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Reading posts on social media, the rice of the price of fuel is orchestrated by the governments so people will buy electric cars and the stay made is to cover the money they lost with COVID.
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A black market will grow, just like it did between the Netherlands and Germany in the 1970's. A feature for my wife's family was every Sunday to drive across to Gronau and fill all the cars up.- @CynicI wasn't aware of that Dutch/German differential. The one I always think of is Venezuela/Colombia. What was the difference between NL and DE way back then in the post-groovy 70s.- @fluffy2560
Back in those days, they also didn't share a currency, it was Hfl and Dm; my wife saved 25 guilders a week filling up her little Renault 5 in Germany. Her dad had a company car which ran on LPG, there the price difference went the other way, it was much cheaper in Holland. It got more complicated because I got tax-free fuel in Germany.
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Reading posts on social media, the rice of the price of fuel is orchestrated by the governments so people will buy electric cars and the stay made is to cover the money they lost with COVID.- @SimCityAT
Sounds like a conspiracy theory worthy of many Hungarians.
Obviously the more fuel they sell, the more income they have in VAT and excise taxes. Government must be raking it in.
How could selling less fuel cover the billions lost in the COVID crisis?
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A black market will grow, just like it did between the Netherlands and Germany in the 1970's. A feature for my wife's family was every Sunday to drive across to Gronau and fill all the cars up.- @CynicI wasn't aware of that Dutch/German differential. The one I always think of is Venezuela/Colombia. What was the difference between NL and DE way back then in the post-groovy 70s.- @fluffy2560Back in those days, they also didn't share a currency, it was Hfl and Dm; my wife saved 25 guilders a week filling up her little Renault 5 in Germany. Her dad had a company car which ran on LPG, there the price difference went the other way, it was much cheaper in Holland. It got more complicated because I got tax-free fuel in Germany.- @Cynic
That's complicated to arrange. I suppose a siphon or pump was in use occasionally.
I remember HFL and DEM! I liked the Dutch money, very colourful notes. German less so. I suppose 25 HFL was about £8 on a tank. Today's money that would be about £70-80, about 10 x the difference. That's a lot!
More recently (like this morning), I've been told by someone I know further West that the minders at the stations closer to the border are not actually there all the time. People are therefore just buying as freely as they wish at the automated stations, including those on foreign plates.
Probably the foreign cars are actually Hungarians working elsewhere as cross border workers so it's going to be interesting to see how that is going to work out if they were actually challenged by someone. I can see Hungarian on Hungarian contact.
And they'll lose at football vs England next time. That'll show 'em what's what. None of that low fuel price discrimination nonsense.
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A black market will grow, just like it did between the Netherlands and Germany in the 1970's. A feature for my wife's family was every Sunday to drive across to Gronau and fill all the cars up.- @CynicI wasn't aware of that Dutch/German differential. The one I always think of is Venezuela/Colombia. What was the difference between NL and DE way back then in the post-groovy 70s.- @fluffy2560Back in those days, they also didn't share a currency, it was Hfl and Dm; my wife saved 25 guilders a week filling up her little Renault 5 in Germany. Her dad had a company car which ran on LPG, there the price difference went the other way, it was much cheaper in Holland. It got more complicated because I got tax-free fuel in Germany.- @CynicThat's complicated to arrange. I suppose a siphon or pump was in use occasionally.I remember HFL and DEM! I liked the Dutch money, very colourful notes. German less so. I suppose 25 HFL was about £8 on a tank. Today's money that would be about £70-80, about 10 x the difference. That's a lot!More recently (like this morning), I've been told by someone I know further West that the minders at the stations closer to the border are not actually there all the time. People are therefore just buying as freely as they wish at the automated stations, including those on foreign plates.Probably the foreign cars are actually Hungarians working elsewhere as cross border workers so it's going to be interesting to see how that is going to work out if they were actually challenged by someone. I can see Hungarian on Hungarian contact.And they'll lose at football vs England next time. That'll show 'em what's what. None of that low fuel price discrimination nonsense.- @fluffy2560
When you put it like that, it doesn't sound right (that's a lot of money) in 79; not helped by the fact I was driving without paying any mwst, so it all seemed bloody expensive to me, but that's what they say amongst themselves when reminiscing about queueing at the border crossings back then.
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That's complicated to arrange. I suppose a siphon or pump was in use occasionally.I remember HFL and DEM! I liked the Dutch money, very colourful notes. German less so. I suppose 25 HFL was about £8 on a tank. Today's money that would be about £70-80, about 10 x the difference. That's a lot!More recently (like this morning), I've been told by someone I know further West that the minders at the stations closer to the border are not actually there all the time. People are therefore just buying as freely as they wish at the automated stations, including those on foreign plates.Probably the foreign cars are actually Hungarians working elsewhere as cross border workers so it's going to be interesting to see how that is going to work out if they were actually challenged by someone. I can see Hungarian on Hungarian contact.And they'll lose at football vs England next time. That'll show 'em what's what. None of that low fuel price discrimination nonsense.- @fluffy2560When you put it like that, it doesn't sound right (that's a lot of money) in 79; not helped by the fact I was driving without paying any mwst, so it all seemed bloody expensive to me, but that's what they say amongst themselves when reminiscing about queueing at the border crossings back then.- @Cynic
I looked up how much £8 was back in the mid-70s. Inflation was high back in those days - we forget the 15% mortgage rate around those times. And the 1970s was a long time ago - more than 40 years. Seems like only yesterday I hung up my flares and stopped watching Top of the Pops.
These days of course, there are no border controls so no-one is checking on the fuel in your tank. Those were the "good" old days, big queues, passports, border morons looking in the boot for illegal n'er do wells. Who the hell would want that kind of nostalgia?! Crossing Europe meant having envelopes of currency for each country. Pain the rear end. Eurozone has lots wrong with it but consumer satisfaction is not one of those wrong things.
What a lot of people don't realise is that fuel itself doesn't cost that much. The Excise Duty and the VAT on top is what pushes it up. If they wanted to bring down the fuel price, cutting Excise Duty and VAT would be the way to do it. Interesting to me is that island nations could do that - the UK for example - as they can control points of import/export. It wouldn't have much fuel tourism. I don't know how you'd stop it in a landlocked place like HU.
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A bit linked, but inflation is good for governments to decrease debt, voters will not always happy though, Germany the best example I think. Me myself I am also an example against inflation (stagflation), I have some savings, I am not investing (too scared)
Personally a recession sounds fine to me and deflation even better. (Just me)
But zero growth for a few years (with employment not being an issue) is very very fine.
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https://www.skysports.com/football/engl … ort/461703
- @SimCityAT
My husband watched the 2 games.
It's been a long while since Hungary's team shook things up like this.
My husband's uncle grew up in the 19th district where most of the players of the 1956 Golden Team also grew up.
He was buddies with them all.
He was so close to them that he was allowed in the locker room with them before games.
When my BIL was perhaps 8 years old and really into football, their unlce took him to the teams locker room to meet them and they all signed their autographes for him on a sheet of paper.
No idea if he still has the paper or not but it might now be worth a few pennies.
I can't watch football, gives me flashbacks to when my husband broke his arm playing around with some of his friends.
I suppose it wil mean some team players will not be renewing their contracts in the future unless they turn things around.
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https://www.skysports.com/football/engl … ort/461703
- @SimCityAT
Shock result.
Unfortunately, OV is going to say it vindicates his massive investment in sports and especially football stadiums.
I can see a Southgate resignation on the horizon!
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Fuel price update:
Mrs F and I plus kids drove to Germany via Austria and back these past few days. Price of fuel there ranges from 2.40 EUR (on the highway) to just under 2.1 EUR (at Aldi/Hofer discount fuel).
Just before the border, we filled up in Mosonmagyaróvár. This was a MOL manned station. Normally we go to the automated pumps so this was a different experience. The manual pumps all show the non-HU price. There are signs up in Hungarian and English showing that EU/non-EU must pay the higher price and HU will pay less.
To get the discount, you have to show the HU car registration documents when making payment.
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A bit linked, but inflation is good for governments to decrease debt, voters will not always happy though, Germany the best example I think. Me myself I am also an example against inflation (stagflation), I have some savings, I am not investing (too scared)Personally a recession sounds fine to me and deflation even better. (Just me)But zero growth for a few years (with employment not being an issue) is very very fine.- @cdw057
Inflation is only marginally useful for domestic debt. I suppose it could be useful to buy discounted bonds using foreign currency but why would one bother? Safer bets elsewhere. Higher inflation will just mean the cost of imports is going to be a problem and erode domestic savings value. It's not a winner. Everyone knows printing money isn't going to help. I suppose quantitative easing might work short term (print money, use it to buy domestic bonds).
There's an article in the Economist discussing Turkey and Erdogan's chances in the next election. Inflation has reached 73% officially with potential reality of inflation in triple digits. In a classic, autocrat move, Erdogan is looking for enemies home and abroad to blame to try and save his bonkers government and policies.
Anyway, where does one go for value in investments as currency? I noticed the building boom here continues. Property is always a safe bet. But prices are getting too high. It'll have to slow down, probably when the weather changes, October'ish.
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This a is a good site to give you an idea https://www.fuel-prices.eu
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This a is a good site to give you an idea https://www.fuel-prices.eu- @SimCityAT
That is useful. Google maps needs a real time overlay of fuel prices.
It's quite a strange business. Previously here, we were all looking at the fuel prices for the best price as usual but since the fixed price here, we can go anywhere to fill up. It's all the same price, no matter where.
Driving through other countries, it's back to the old price system. We favoured the Hofer/Aldi filling stations. That's basically OMV (Austrian fuel) I believe.
We did see some closed stations in Hungary. They've just closed them down and blocked off access.
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I have an App on my tablet called "Fuel Flash" that gives me up-to-date prices in Austria and Germany. A very handy thing to have if you are not familiar with the area and what to get the best price.
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I have an App on my tablet called "Fuel Flash" that gives me up-to-date prices in Austria and Germany. A very handy thing to have if you are not familiar with the area and what to get the best price.- @SimCityAT
Good tip.
We rarely go to Austria or further afield now. We used to drive all the time across Europe but now more likely to fly just to save time. We drove to Germany as we had something to do there, then we wanted to pick something up in Austria on the way back. Very unusual now for us to do that. 20 years ago, we drove all the way to Spain and Bulgaria and back and other road trips around like Croatia.
All in the past now post-COVID. Our travel has plummeted - we try to get people to visit us instead of vice-versa.
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https://www.skysports.com/football/engl … ort/461703
- @SimCityATShock result.Unfortunately, OV is going to say it vindicates his massive investment in sports and especially football stadiums.
I can see a Southgate resignation on the horizon!- @fluffy2560
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Thought it was time to jump over here from the "weather" report site.
My goodness, by one of your girls going to jail in Germany I do hope you meant another military person and not your own blood.
That would be any parents worst nightmare.
My boy was trying to be a gent in Las Vegas when his ex-Hungarian wife went insane and he covered for her, she had him tossed in the pokey for a very long day.
She was the one who belnged locked up and for good!
She didn't even have the respect to tell us what happened until he finally got his one phone call. I hung up several times on him becuase it was a vice message saying the call from from jail.
It had to be a wrong number after all.
Then I thought about what a terrible persn my DIL was and I picked up on the next ring.
We had to bail him out after he did his min. of X amount of hours , think it was 18 hours ?
Poor guy, never in any trouble in his life until he met her...
I still have a bone to pick with her, such a demon in disguse...
My husband did about 3 months behind bars in old cmmie Hungary and he was 100% innocent of any crime.
Now I know why the good book says do not bare false witness... Some ,"chick" was mad at a guy and just tossed my teenage husband intoo the mix for more drama.
Wrong place at the wrng time with the wrong person involved.
Me, I had a ride in the back of a sqaud car once after a traffic accident. The police were nice and gave me a ride hoome when my car went off to the junkyard..
It was very strange not being able to open the back doors for yourself and having that screen between the seats.
Once when I was my silly teenage self, I was suppose to be at my BFF house fr a sleep ver... Well every Friday to Sunday we actually had a house party with a min. of 25 people in attendance. 2 parites ging on really, my friends party and her brther had a party with his cllege buddies in the other end of the house.
The 2 paths rarely crossed, it was nice though that her br's frineds were ver age 21 and bught all the beer anyone could dream of. They also had some good grass that they feely shared.
Well, once I decided to check out another party with this guy and a few people at the other end of our small town.
I did smething not normal for me, I tok about 2 or 3 downers, never was into reds as we used to call them but for some reason I just took them, silly girl.
I passed out cld and wke up with a flashlight in my eyes.
Wasn't in the best of mods and swore at the person with the light in my eyes.
It was our local cops!!!
I passed out s a friend put me in the back of a Willy's Jeep to sleep it off.
This friend was driving me back to my BFF's party house and got stopped by the cops and hauled off to jail.
Seems while I was out he had for fun ran over 3 US mail boxes. Destruction of US property.
The local cops were super cool with me, still not sure why I got so lucky.
They drove me back to my friends loud party and never even bothered to check out what was going on insde the house.
Just warned me to be more careful of who I hung out with in the future ect.
I mean that was worth more then winning the lotto. If my mom ever got wind of me doing anything so crazy she woule of murdered me on the spot.
Later we found out this guy broke into the police impound yard to get his stash!
The things one does when they are young and dumb!.. Well young at least!
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Thought it was time to jump over here from the "weather" report site.My goodness, by one of your girls going to jail in Germany I do hope you meant another military person and not your own blood.That would be any parents worst nightmare.My boy was trying to be a gent in Las Vegas when his ex-Hungarian wife went insane and he covered for her, she had him tossed in the pokey for a very long day.She was the one who belnged locked up and for good!She didn't even have the respect to tell us what happened until he finally got his one phone call. I hung up several times on him becuase it was a vice message saying the call from from jail.It had to be a wrong number after all.Then I thought about what a terrible persn my DIL was and I picked up on the next ring.We had to bail him out after he did his min. of X amount of hours , think it was 18 hours ?Poor guy, never in any trouble in his life until he met her...I still have a bone to pick with her, such a demon in disguse...My husband did about 3 months behind bars in old cmmie Hungary and he was 100% innocent of any crime.Now I know why the good book says do not bare false witness... Some ,"chick" was mad at a guy and just tossed my teenage husband intoo the mix for more drama.Wrong place at the wrng time with the wrong person involved.Me, I had a ride in the back of a sqaud car once after a traffic accident. The police were nice and gave me a ride hoome when my car went off to the junkyard..It was very strange not being able to open the back doors for yourself and having that screen between the seats.Once when I was my silly teenage self, I was suppose to be at my BFF house fr a sleep ver... Well every Friday to Sunday we actually had a house party with a min. of 25 people in attendance. 2 parites ging on really, my friends party and her brther had a party with his cllege buddies in the other end of the house.The 2 paths rarely crossed, it was nice though that her br's frineds were ver age 21 and bught all the beer anyone could dream of. They also had some good grass that they feely shared.Well, once I decided to check out another party with this guy and a few people at the other end of our small town.I did smething not normal for me, I tok about 2 or 3 downers, never was into reds as we used to call them but for some reason I just took them, silly girl.I passed out cld and wke up with a flashlight in my eyes.Wasn't in the best of mods and swore at the person with the light in my eyes.It was our local cops!!!I passed out s a friend put me in the back of a Willy's Jeep to sleep it off.This friend was driving me back to my BFF's party house and got stopped by the cops and hauled off to jail.Seems while I was out he had for fun ran over 3 US mail boxes. Destruction of US property.The local cops were super cool with me, still not sure why I got so lucky.They drove me back to my friends loud party and never even bothered to check out what was going on insde the house.Just warned me to be more careful of who I hung out with in the future ect.I mean that was worth more then winning the lotto. If my mom ever got wind of me doing anything so crazy she woule of murdered me on the spot.Later we found out this guy broke into the police impound yard to get his stash!The things one does when they are young and dumb!.. Well young at least!- @Marilyn Tassy
It was one of the girls who worked for me, but the outcome was devastating all around; without going into detail, she ended up in a bitch fight with somebody who was trying it on with her boyfriend, the outcome of which was she ended up in jail and being discharged from the army. Had it happened anywhere else, it would have been broken up and life would have moved on, but it didn't; I was her CO and had to witness the entire farce. I still speak to her via social media and to her credit, she has moved on, married, raised a family and has the most amazing job; we don't discuss the past, it's not appropriate 26 years later, but I sometimes wonder what the Army lost that day.
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It was one of the girls who worked for me, but the outcome was devastating all around; without going into detail, she ended up in a bitch fight with somebody who was trying it on with her boyfriend, the outcome of which was she ended up in jail and being discharged from the army. Had it happened anywhere else, it would have been broken up and life would have moved on, but it didn't; I was her CO and had to witness the entire farce. I still speak to her via social media and to her credit, she has moved on, married, raised a family and has the most amazing job; we don't discuss the past, it's not appropriate 26 years later, but I sometimes wonder what the Army lost that day.- @Cynic
I've always wondered if life in the military would be "useful" survival experience for adapting to life inside. The regimented environment, the physical nature of grunt work and the living close to others, possibly some level of camaraderie might have some very basic similarities with basic soldiering. Just a theory.
I've seen in movies that lifers have a different regime to those on much shorter sentences. They live in smaller units with others on the same sentence path, can sometimes prepare their own meals, more flexibility on clothing. Not sure how true any of that is. Of course in the UK, life is not always life - 25 years and most non-life prison sentences seem to be half inside, half on license or parole.
Don't know about other places like the USA or Belize. Some places seem to look at prison as places of revenge rather than rehabilitation.
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They say there is little crime in Japan.
I know why.
Any offense means a min. of 23 days in jail before seeing the judge and they have no bail system!
Say you are charged with 2 minor crimes, that is automatic 46 days in jail before being offically charged with anything!
Your lawyer can not appear in court to face the judge with you either!!!!
I've told my son he had better keep his nose clean in Japan!!
I've seen video's on prison life in Japan.They basically force you to confess to anything they saw you did wrong.
Talk about cruel!
Not allowed to talk , only whisper with other inmates for 30 mins per day in the yard.
Have to sit in 2 official ways in your cell, not lay on your bunk or mat.
Either cross legged or on your knees resting on your feet. No walking around your cell or bugging the guard.
Visitors hours are very limited. No heat in the winter and no A/C in the summer in jail.
It's like a POW camp!
My husband said in Hu back when he was a teen in trouble like I mentioned, totlaly innocent, he was just thrown in the mix to make the story more exciting...
He siad you had to sit on a backless wooden bench for hours while they went over the rules on the PA every single day.
No laying on your bunk either.
He was told by his lawyer after the case was thrown out for being false that he could sue the gov.
He was so burnt out that he wasn't up to going into a court house again even for his rights.
I wrked in a beauty salon with a very nice Mexican /American lady who's son was facing years and years in prison.
She worked herself half to death with 2 jobs to apy his legal fees and try to get him a reduced sentence.
He had been at a party as a teenager and some guy and he got into a fight over a women and her son stabbed the guy and killed him.
A crime of passion.
I felt so bad for her, went to her place and she had her son's room all ready for him to cme home again.
I moved away, no idea if all her hard work was for nada or not.
She was paying a higher price then her son was, her life was over with and she was in her mid 30's.
I'm sure they guy he killed family was gald he was locked up but somehow in some cases there should be a better way of finding justice.
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They say there is little crime in Japan.I know why.Any offense means a min. of 23 days in jail before seeing the judge and they have no bail system!Say you are charged with 2 minor crimes, that is automatic 46 days in jail before being offically charged with anything!Your lawyer can not appear in court to face the judge with you either!!!!I've told my son he had better keep his nose clean in Japan!!I've seen video's on prison life in Japan.They basically force you to confess to anything they saw you did wrong.Talk about cruel!Not allowed to talk , only whisper with other inmates for 30 mins per day in the yard.Have to sit in 2 official ways in your cell, not lay on your bunk or mat.Either cross legged or on your knees resting on your feet. No walking around your cell or bugging the guard.Visitors hours are very limited. No heat in the winter and no A/C in the summer in jail.It's like a POW camp!- @Marilyn Tassy
That's definitely not like the military. That's something else and sounds ludicrously oppressive. So much for Japanese "justice".
I can see Western detainees being very resistant to that kind of regime.
It sounds like they've never heard about habeus corpus - holding someone against their will without charges.
No wonder Carlos Ghosn smuggled himself out of there.
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Yes, in Japan they,"grill" you until you confess.
If you make a fuss about sitting in your cell quietly then they put you in a looney bin for a while in a straight jacket.
If you confess you may get out but then you are black marked for life and they keep tabs on you.
Hard to believe in a modern world where Japan ranks as being part of the modern industrial world.
Saw a show about their prison system and some poor elderly man was in there s long that is went menatal.The locals in is village are nice with him and know he was treated unfairly. He lives with his sister who cares for him. He just walks all day long becuase he is free and he couldn't take walks in jail.
What a waste of his life, think he was in for 30 years!
When my son's ex wife accused him of a false claim( thrown out of courst) and he spent a day in jail while the clock ticked away. We had to wait to pay bail, they have a min. amount of hours you must be in before they let anyone out.
He was given the oranage jump suit and told us he was giving everything away, his pillow, his bed coverings , half his food,ect. just to keep the peace with the real crimmies in the holding area with him.
I swear if it's the last thing I do in this life, I'm going to get that women and her mother.
Maybe I should just have a curse placed on them? I know anyone who crosses their paths is cursed.
I mentioned how evil the women were. The mom's HU BF went so insane from them that on his BD he jumped off the roof of their Balaton villa and kiled himself. My ex DIL found his body in the back yard the next morning...
Her mom then sent her over to the guys apt. where he shared the place with his bro and sister. Her mom left a pair of shoes at their palce and sent my DIL to pick them up after he had jumped.
They did give back the shoes... they threw them at my DIL while screaming for her and her mother to get lost. I have allot in common with these people!
My boy was going through the Stockholm syndrome for sure.
We could see the evil but all he saw was stars, maybe he saw stars after his wife hit him on the head so hard she broke her own hand? He never recovered from the head injury.
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Petrol/diesel update...
Our local automated station "Oranges" has closed down. Prices not displayed and the pumps not working. There are traffic cones in every lane and signs up saying not operational.
That's the second Oranges we've seen which has shutdown. At the first one, the jet wash looked like it was working but no-one was there.
Looks like OV has put them out of business or they've suspended business until the situation changes. Probably others will stop soon as well - maybe not MoL.
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Yes, in Japan they,"grill" you until you confess.If you make a fuss about sitting in your cell quietly then they put you in a looney bin for a while in a straight jacket.If you confess you may get out but then you are black marked for life and they keep tabs on you.Hard to believe in a modern world where Japan ranks as being part of the modern industrial world.Saw a show about their prison system and some poor elderly man was in there s long that is went menatal.The locals in is village are nice with him and know he was treated unfairly. He lives with his sister who cares for him. He just walks all day long becuase he is free and he couldn't take walks in jail.What a waste of his life, think he was in for 30 years!When my son's ex wife accused him of a false claim( thrown out of courst) and he spent a day in jail while the clock ticked away. We had to wait to pay bail, they have a min. amount of hours you must be in before they let anyone out.He was given the oranage jump suit and told us he was giving everything away, his pillow, his bed coverings , half his food,ect. just to keep the peace with the real crimmies in the holding area with him.I swear if it's the last thing I do in this life, I'm going to get that women and her mother.Maybe I should just have a curse placed on them? I know anyone who crosses their paths is cursed.I mentioned how evil the women were. The mom's HU BF went so insane from them that on his BD he jumped off the roof of their Balaton villa and kiled himself. My ex DIL found his body in the back yard the next morning...Her mom then sent her over to the guys apt. where he shared the place with his bro and sister. Her mom left a pair of shoes at their palce and sent my DIL to pick them up after he had jumped.They did give back the shoes... they threw them at my DIL while screaming for her and her mother to get lost. I have allot in common with these people!My boy was going through the Stockholm syndrome for sure.We could see the evil but all he saw was stars, maybe he saw stars after his wife hit him on the head so hard she broke her own hand? He never recovered from the head injury.- @Marilyn Tassy
I wonder why there's a minimum number of hours before you get bail? Seems odd. In the UK, there's police bail, so you can pay that to get out without having a bail bond. At least that's what I've seen on TV. And they can only hold you for so long before charging you - probably best thing is to keep stumm and say nothing. If they have evidence, they'd use it. If they haven't they'll intimidate - at least in a civilised country. Unlikely to beat you up. They say, don't do the crime unless you can do the time.
That Nissan cars guy Carlos Ghosn I mentioned, he's a very interesting person. I saw a documentary about him and he looks like he was a great businessman and the Japanese were out to get him on trumped up charges. His deputy didn't manage to run away and is being forced to stay in Japan while the wheels of "justice" turn slowly. His wife was refused access to him and the Japanese on relented when she started talking to the media and getting US politicians involved. He's looking at 30 years in a Japanese prison. He unfortunately believed he could get a fair trial but probably no chance. Probably still under house arrest or something like that.
Sounds like the ex-wife and mother are actually criminals. People do dumb stuff but learn from their mistakes but others keep doing the same things and expect a different result. That's supposedly a definition of madness.
I could see myself looking forward to seeing the Teflon Don doing the perp walk, fully cuffed up. Unlikely it'll happen. It's not looking good for him right now. Loads of evidence against him mounting.
Weird stuff happens - the gun control thing, the Trump thing and now Roe vs Wade. What is going on over there?!
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Wizzair cuts schedule...(my highlighting)...
Low cost European carrier Wizz Air has said it will cut its peak summer flight programme due to travel chaos at airports.
The Hungarian airline, which is listed in London, said it would trim its capacity by another 5% as part of efforts to avoid flight cancellations and delays.
Mounting disruption in the sector has been caused by staffing shortages at airports, with operations struggling to match soaring demand from holidaymakers now that Covid restrictions have been lifted.
The threat of strikes across Europe by airline employees and pilots is adding to the woes.
Heathrow warned separately on Monday that it would ask airlines to cancel more flights this summer if it does not believe previous schedule reductions will sufficiently reduce disruption.
Carriers were ordered by the Government and the Civil Aviation Authority last month to make sure their timetables were “deliverable” after the sector was unable to cope with demand during the Platinum Jubilee half-term school holiday.
Heathrow admitted services levels have “not been acceptable”, with passengers suffering long check-in and security queues and problems with baggage handling on top of flight delays and cancellations.
Wizz Air said: “To be able to avoid cancellations and secure a more punctual operation to our customers, we have further improved the agility and resilience of our network including adjusting schedules where we have seen a higher occurrence of issues… In total for the peak summer period we expect to reduce utilisation a further 5% versus the plan outlined at the full year results to reduce the impact of ongoing external disruptions.”
Despite this, Wizz Air said it was set for a boost in demand over the summer and is forecasting a “material” operating profit in its July to September quarter.
This comes after it reported an operating loss of 285 million euros (£241 million) in its first quarter due to rising fuel costs and a strengthening US dollar.
The Hungarian airline, which is listed in London, said it would trim its capacity by another 5% as part of efforts to avoid flight cancellations and delays.
Mounting disruption in the sector has been caused by staffing shortages at airports, with operations struggling to match soaring demand from holidaymakers now that Covid restrictions have been lifted.
The threat of strikes across Europe by airline employees and pilots is adding to the woes.
Heathrow warned separately on Monday that it would ask airlines to cancel more flights this summer if it does not believe previous schedule reductions will sufficiently reduce disruption.
Carriers were ordered by the Government and the Civil Aviation Authority last month to make sure their timetables were “deliverable” after the sector was unable to cope with demand during the Platinum Jubilee half-term school holiday.
Heathrow admitted services levels have “not been acceptable”, with passengers suffering long check-in and security queues and problems with baggage handling on top of flight delays and cancellations.
Wizz Air said: “To be able to avoid cancellations and secure a more punctual operation to our customers, we have further improved the agility and resilience of our network including adjusting schedules where we have seen a higher occurrence of issues… In total for the peak summer period we expect to reduce utilisation a further 5% versus the plan outlined at the full year results to reduce the impact of ongoing external disruptions.”
Despite this, Wizz Air said it was set for a boost in demand over the summer and is forecasting a “material” operating profit in its July to September quarter.
This comes after it reported an operating loss of 285 million euros (£241 million) in its first quarter due to rising fuel costs and a strengthening US dollar.
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Not looking very good for Wizzair. I'm booked on a Wizzair flight to LGW (London Gatwick) at the end of July. Not sure it'll go ahead now.
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1After 5 years of not visiting the UK I am finally going in November with KLM via Amsterdam to Cardiff. I hope they get their act together.
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After 5 years of not visiting the UK I am finally going in November with KLM via Amsterdam to Cardiff. I hope they get their act together.- @SimCityAT
I used to fly via AMS on KLM a lot but last time I was there, a few years ago, I was surprised how dated and small scale it was there. But it's was very well organised - train station under the airport etc, fast trains etc. I went off KLM completely when they started charging extra for bags. I also found their Fokker planes dated.
BTW, head of BA has been warning prices will rise due to the fuel price.
One problem with the UK is not using the regional airports enough. I want to go to LGW generally, not to LHR but I have others I could go to like Southampton, Southend, London City etc. Not keen on Stansted or Luton as wrong side of London. There used to be a flight from Budapest direct to Southend but it was a slow propeller job so never went on it.
LBC Radio says LGW and LHR should be avoided currently.
Disincentive to travel for me now is car rental. Pricing is off the wall at the moment. Might get better in September.
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Gas emergency in Hungary (as sent to me):
"Hungary: Government declares State of Emergency due to concerns over gas supply
On 13 July 2022 the government of Prime Minister Viktor Orban declared a State of Emergency due to concerns over gas supply ahead of the winter months.
On 13 July 2022 the government of Prime Minister Viktor Orban declared a State of Emergency due to concerns over gas supply ahead of the winter months.
Measures under the State of Emergency include restrictions on gas exports, removal of a gas price cap for high-consumption households and plans to boost domestic production.
Fuel prices have increased in Hungary and other European countries in recent months amid the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine. In addition to the direct impacts of decreasing fuel supplies, shortages or increased prices may also prompt demonstrations or unrest. Individuals should monitor official sources for updates."
The gas cap price is apparently in discussions within government. Obviously it's to cut consumption. They plan to set a ceiling on a model household based on average consumption. Anything over the model consumption will be at a higher price. It's not clear what any of this means in reality - like what's the model and what's the price cap going to be set at? What is the definition of a high consumption household?
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1@fluffy2560 No surprise, the subsidy has to be stopped somehow, I would imagine that the concensus will be up to this or that consumption on an annual basis will be subsidized, over that price will increase quite a bit.
With such shortfalls in the budget something has to be done, increasing interest rates only will not suffice. (KATA/GAS/Taxes on big companies/what will come more)
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@fluffy2560 No surprise, the subsidy has to be stopped somehow, I would imagine that the concensus will be up to this or that consumption on an annual basis will be subsidized, over that price will increase quite a bit.With such shortfalls in the budget something has to be done, increasing interest rates only will not suffice. (KATA/GAS/Taxes on big companies/what will come more)- @cdw057
I agree. It cannot go on in the face of the reality of worldwide oil prices.
It's really not clear what they plan to do in real terms. OV is always going on about Hungarian families so perhaps the cap will be set high for us simply because we have kids. OV is like King Canute. Even he cannot command the forces of nature to hold back the tide (of rising prices).
One thing which might be in the decision making process is electricity. The nuclear station supplies about 70% of the country's power. In other countries, energy (i.e. electricity) is effectively priced to match gas/oil prices. Perhaps this will be a change here and everyone will be moving towards electricity over the winter - for heating etc. Be a kind of structural change in the market. I could see in the worst case some kind of rolling blackouts or probably reduced industrial and office working hours. We could be in for a tough winter.
At Fluffy HQ, we have 3 sources of heating - gas, air source heat pump and wood. We could survive without gas but not without electricity. One of our contacts is already planning to install a solar system for electricity. I had thought about it myself a couple of years ago but didn't do anything about it. Probably a bit late - solar installers must be incredibly busy.
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My Bpi flat is gas/electric. Sure I could cut down a lot on my gas stove, but I have gas heating/water heating. Quick showers are in my future!
In addition to the simple costs of petrol, inflation is killing the exchange rates, and Hungary imports a lot. The incredibly shrinking forint is held hostage by the HU/Fidesz govt's stubborness in not allowing Rule of Law changes. Many tens of billions of Euros earmarked for HU are frozen in Brussels until such time as O1G's govt complies with mandates. Honestly, I do not see this happening in the short term. Anyone rich enough to be a friend of Fidesz has moved their money out of forints long ago. The common videki people who support Fidesz don't travel much abroad so it comes down to local finances for them. The cost of bread, fuel, drink... Plus the recent election gives Fidesz a mandate despite their lies and hypocrisy for years to come.
I tell people that in the years that I've owned my Bpi flat, its price has doubled. Unfortunately, the value of the forint has halved. I'm barely treading water there and the rate of inflation is killing my income. I do have some friends who received a "inflationary adjustment" to their salaries, but that won't be happening at the company where I work. I'm feeling quite a lot of pressure...
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My Bpi flat is gas/electric. Sure I could cut down a lot on my gas stove, but I have gas heating/water heating. Quick showers are in my future!In addition to the simple costs of petrol, inflation is killing the exchange rates, and Hungary imports a lot. The incredibly shrinking forint is held hostage by the HU/Fidesz govt's stubborness in not allowing Rule of Law changes. Many tens of billions of Euros earmarked for HU are frozen in Brussels until such time as O1G's govt complies with mandates. Honestly, I do not see this happening in the short term. Anyone rich enough to be a friend of Fidesz has moved their money out of forints long ago. The common videki people who support Fidesz don't travel much abroad so it comes down to local finances for them. The cost of bread, fuel, drink... Plus the recent election gives Fidesz a mandate despite their lies and hypocrisy for years to come.- @Vicces1
I tell people that in the years that I've owned my Bpi flat, its price has doubled. Unfortunately, the value of the forint has halved. I'm barely treading water there and the rate of inflation is killing my income. I do have some friends who received a "inflationary adjustment" to their salaries, but that won't be happening at the company where I work. I'm feeling quite a lot of pressure...
You're not wrong!
All I can think is the government will have to start borrowing to finance the lower energy price and extend the terms to 25, 30 or 50 years or something similar, i.e. beyond Fidesz and O1G's involvement. I've been monitoring public debt and it's been going up gradually. At some point their borrowing might exceed their capacity to pay it back. One can see what happens when self-serving politicians mess up economic reality, i.e. Sri Lanka or Zimbabwe. O1G might lose the plot and start printing money, then it'll be back to the Pengő and people's savings will be wiped out.
The Vidéki have been sold a pup. I've previously tried to be generous and accommodating with my assessment of the countryside people or even the older generation (over 65s here - almost includes me) but now I've started to call it. They are basically dumber than a box of rocks sucked in by O1G's nonsense and media controls.
I read only a day or so ago that there are increasing labour shortages here. Economies elsewhere try to cope by increasing immigration. Impossible here due to the anti-immigration stance. Education is losing teachers and those coming into the profession are of lower quality. Public services will go downhill. People will leave and who can blame them.
And then we have the grinding war next door. O1G has not done himself any favours being Putin's best friend in the EU - HU will have the lowest share of any UKR reconstruction projects. Be over a $trillion. Might not even have any share of it. Zelensky isn't exactly O1G's best friend.
BTW, not trying to scaremonger, but there's some sort of HU language table floating around on the Internet showing current energy prices, limits of subsidy and what it might cost at real market rates or what might be planned. The difference is 6 times. So if you spend 25K HUF on electricity a month, it'd be 150K HUF on a free float.
Unfortunately I don't have a link and it might be BS - I was sent the table on social messaging and there's no context or source attribution or context. I'm trying to find out where this table came from.
I know from the UK news feeds, energy bills there are likely to exceed 1.6M HUF per year for an average household. It's becoming unaffordable.
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I found the table and some discussions - no-one is saying it's true or anything like what will happen. Someone spent the time creating it. Needs attribution and triangulation to confirm what it is about.
It could all be nonsense so definitely pinch of salt time!
Also at ma.hu:
"What do we know so far?
Government information officer Gergely Gulyás said that in Hungary today, the average monthly consumption for electricity is 210 kWh/month, and for natural gas 144 cubic meters/month, which makes it possible to consume 2,523 kWh of electricity and 1,729 cubic meters of gas per year at reduced utility prices.
Szilárd Német, the government commissioner responsible for maintaining the utility reduction, added to this that a family with three children can now use the discount up to 2329 cubic meters instead of 1729 cubic meters per year. The limit increases by 300 cubic meters for each additional child. However, there is no such discount for electricity.
They did not address how the reduced utility price matters to those who do not pay a flat rate, but report their consumption with a monthly dictation, or what happens to those who heat with electricity rather than gas. In the case of gas-heated apartment buildings, the settlement of discounted and overconsumption is not clear either."
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1BTW - In case you didn't know, we are in a state of emergency:
The coal-fired Matra power plant -- not operating since June 2021 -- will be restarted as soon as possible, and the government will launch the procedure to extend the operating license of the Paks nuclear power plant until 2042-2047 (different dates apply to the four Paks blocks). A sore point to citizens, those who consume energy above the national average will have to pay the market price for the excess consumption.
Gulyas said the average annual consumption had been 2,523 kilowatt hours for electricity and 1,729 cubic meters for gas.
As for inflation:
Hungarian inflation hits 24-year high and shows no sign of slowing
Both headline and core inflation readings were higher than expected in June. The latter was more significant and suggests more entrenched price pressures in Hungary. We are still months away from seeing the peak
Hungary's central bank announced Tuesday its latest large interest rate hike as the country faces soaring inflation and a plunging local currency amid talks with Brussels over held-up EU funding.
Hungarian headline inflation (HUCPIY=ECI) rose to 11.7% year-on-year in June, exceeding analyst forecasts for a 11.5% increase, while core inflation surged from the previous month, data showed on Friday.
Core inflation (HUCPIC=ECI), calculated with a revised methodology, accelerated to 13.8% from 12.2% in May, above analysts' 13% forecast in a Reuters survey.
The KSH said annual price increases were driven by higher food and consumer durables prices.
Analysts said Tuesday's move was also aimed to steady the local currency, the forint, which has been plunging against the euro for weeks due to uncertainties over the holding-up of European Union funds to Hungary.
Orban's government is in long-running talks with Brussels over the release of bloc funding that has been frozen by concerns about corruption and rule-of-law in Hungary.
In a separate development, hundreds of protesters on Tuesday blocked traffic in downtown Budapest in a rally against the government scrapping a preferential tax for small business owners. (KATA)
Inflation in Hungary is expected to strengthen further in the coming months. First of all, we expect the tax changes to impact both core and headline inflation from July. The government has raised the excise duty (alcohol and tobacco) and the public health product tax (certain sugary and salty products), while we also expect corporates to pass on some of the burden coming from “windfall” taxes.
On top of that, EUR/HUF reached a new record level versus major currencies (417 vs EUR in early July), which might trigger further price changes. In addition, there is no relief in sight for global commodity prices, and the labour shortage is also driving up labour costs.
In light of today’s upside surprises and taking into consideration the pipeline price pressures, we move our inflation forecast higher. The extent and timing of the peak in price pressure highly depends on price caps, which are in place until 1 October, but we see another delay in the phase-out. All in all, we expect headline inflation to peak in the 13-14% YoY range in September or October. On average, we forecast an 11.5% headline reading in 2022, with 7-8% inflation in 2023 with risks clearly tilted to the upside.
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BTW - In case you didn't know, we are in a state of emergency:The coal-fired Matra power plant -- not operating since June 2021 -- will be restarted as soon as possible, and the government will launch the procedure to extend the operating license of the Paks nuclear power plant until 2042-2047 (different dates apply to the four Paks blocks). A sore point to citizens, those who consume energy above the national average will have to pay the market price for the excess consumption.Gulyas said the average annual consumption had been 2,523 kilowatt hours for electricity and 1,729 cubic meters for gas.As for inflation:Hungarian inflation hits 24-year high and shows no sign of slowingBoth headline and core inflation readings were higher than expected in June. The latter was more significant and suggests more entrenched price pressures in Hungary. We are still months away from seeing the peakHungary's central bank announced Tuesday its latest large interest rate hike as the country faces soaring inflation and a plunging local currency amid talks with Brussels over held-up EU funding.Hungarian headline inflation (HUCPIY=ECI) rose to 11.7% year-on-year in June, exceeding analyst forecasts for a 11.5% increase, while core inflation surged from the previous month, data showed on Friday.Core inflation (HUCPIC=ECI), calculated with a revised methodology, accelerated to 13.8% from 12.2% in May, above analysts' 13% forecast in a Reuters survey.The KSH said annual price increases were driven by higher food and consumer durables prices.Analysts said Tuesday's move was also aimed to steady the local currency, the forint, which has been plunging against the euro for weeks due to uncertainties over the holding-up of European Union funds to Hungary.Orban's government is in long-running talks with Brussels over the release of bloc funding that has been frozen by concerns about corruption and rule-of-law in Hungary.In a separate development, hundreds of protesters on Tuesday blocked traffic in downtown Budapest in a rally against the government scrapping a preferential tax for small business owners. (KATA)Inflation in Hungary is expected to strengthen further in the coming months. First of all, we expect the tax changes to impact both core and headline inflation from July. The government has raised the excise duty (alcohol and tobacco) and the public health product tax (certain sugary and salty products), while we also expect corporates to pass on some of the burden coming from “windfall” taxes.On top of that, EUR/HUF reached a new record level versus major currencies (417 vs EUR in early July), which might trigger further price changes. In addition, there is no relief in sight for global commodity prices, and the labour shortage is also driving up labour costs.In light of today’s upside surprises and taking into consideration the pipeline price pressures, we move our inflation forecast higher. The extent and timing of the peak in price pressure highly depends on price caps, which are in place until 1 October, but we see another delay in the phase-out. All in all, we expect headline inflation to peak in the 13-14% YoY range in September or October. On average, we forecast an 11.5% headline reading in 2022, with 7-8% inflation in 2023 with risks clearly tilted to the upside.- @Vicces1
Good round up but didn't mention the return of COVID - new variants are expected to become widespread this winter.
I did know it was a state of emergency. But as with these things, I always wonder if it is an O1G convenience to ram something or other unrelated through. Something which could be widely opposed and he can force on everyone by decree.
The Matra power station I also knew about. That is or was owned by one of O1G's cronies and is a pollution factory. There's always a suspicion that this kind of involvement is cover for HU oligarch enrichment.
However, the local lignite (brown coal) extraction means no fuel imports. There will no doubt be an upswing in health issues due to the noxious output from burning lignite and the EU might have something to say on environmental grounds.
I cannot see O1G caving into Brussels to get the funding, they will end up caving into him as they did on Russian pipeline oil.
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1Yes, another COVID round coming. I wonder if they understand that those most at risk are their own supporters -- not only in HU but other countries as well. In the US, with over a million deaths now due to COVID, and the vast majority of those deaths among the unvaccinated, who are overwhelmingly Republican, I do wonder if it will have an effect in the midterm elections in November in simple mathematical terms of the number of voters. I have my 2 original shots and 2 boosters, so I hope that I have some degree of protection for any new variants.
I can't see O1G caving to Brussels either -- it would mean opening up the books and he certainly doesn't want to do that. In fact, he hasn't even started on the required reporting basics:
(Link at the top to change to English)
And what does he really care? O1G, his cronies, Meszaros, stb have raped this country and sent their ill-gotten gains abroad, they are insulated from the financials. And I could even imagine a scenario where Fidesz blames Brussels for all the pain, if they didn't stand-up to Putin the way they did. Personally, I am amazed that a country still bent on Trianon and the 1956 revolution should develop amnesia and a lack of sympathy for Ukraine. It's been said to be a huge thorn in the side of Poland, who may reconsider some of their mutual admiration vetoes with Hungary.
The question is really timing. Will Europe be able to source enough energy to overcome the shortfall from boycotting Russian energy? And in order to compensate, countries are delaying or restarting coal plants and other higher polluting energy sources. I do wonder how the German Greens have squared their circle of wanting to close down nuclear but now see a coal power resurgence in Germany.
Then also, boycotting Russian props up harsh regimes elsewhere. The Rouble has never seen such strength in its own value in the past decade, while the forint plunges. Will food production recover from the major effects on grain exports from both Russia and Ukraine?
So many issues...
But the issue for me is that all could be solved relatively easily (or have been prevented) except for the egos of pathetic men in power, such as Putin and O1G. Just a slight change, a different path and the world would be a better place. Instead, we see the world destroying itself. It's so frustrating.
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We already live very frugal.
Our average electric per month is usually under 5-6 thousand forints per month.
We shut off the water heater after a daily shower/bath so it doesn't reheat again until the next morning.
We shut off the water heater after a daily shower/bath so it doesn't reheat again until the next morning.
If we didn't do that we would be heating the entire water tank without using it and that's just a waste of energy and money. ( A couple of times however, we forgot to turn it on and I had a chilly bath)
My husband grew up this way and he rules the roost here( or so he thinks!)
I grew up in a very large family and learned to shut off lights when leaving a room even if I was returning a bit later.
Never keep the fridge door open for long all sorts of frugal ways of doing things.
In the winters even now, I dislike the dry heat being on all night long so we shut the heat off at night and use an extra blanket if needed.
I swear we do things like we are living in the depression of the 1930's.
Don't run the washing machine but once a week, air dry everything.
When we have access to the dishwasher, I forget it's even there and hand wash everything.
Had a HU friend visit our home in Ca. once and she wanted to wash the dishes for me. ( I had a dishwasher back then)
Of course I told her not to do it but she insisted.
I swear she was giving me a mild heart attack the way she cleaned up.
She had the faust running at full force the entire time she washed the dishes.
To this day I'm not sure she did that to drive me nuts on purpose or if she was that much of a water waster in her own life. Same lady made us lunch here in Hungary and used sme fresh brocolli. She tossed out the entire stem and only used the tops.I wnder again if she was messing with my head or if she bought it by the kilo and threw half in the trash because she didn't know she could use the whole bunch if she scrapped off the hard outside? Probably more vitamins in the stock then the tops.
My sister lived in London years back with a few roomates.
They took turns doing housework each week.
One UK lady used to just wash one side of a dish, now that's a bit too frugal and sloppy.
My sister never had the nerve to tell her she was doing a bad job so she just fibbed and said she liked washing dishes and would do them for her when it was her week to wash up. My sister actually hates washing dishes, I know she used to make me to them for her as a child, or else...
I think people have to recieve their first heart stopping utility bills before they learn to be frugal with energy.
We are not in frugal habits just to save money but over the years it has become a way of life.
I'm not afraid at all of using too much power this winter and being over charged,I still have an old fur coat around here some place...
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Yes, another COVID round coming. I wonder if they understand that those most at risk are their own supporters -- not only in HU but other countries as well. In the US, with over a million deaths now due to COVID, and the vast majority of those deaths among the unvaccinated, who are overwhelmingly Republican, I do wonder if it will have an effect in the midterm elections in November in simple mathematical terms of the number of voters. I have my 2 original shots and 2 boosters, so I hope that I have some degree of protection for any new variants.I can't see O1G caving to Brussels either -- it would mean opening up the books and he certainly doesn't want to do that. In fact, he hasn't even started on the required reporting basics:(Link at the top to change to English)And what does he really care? O1G, his cronies, Meszaros, stb have raped this country and sent their ill-gotten gains abroad, they are insulated from the financials. And I could even imagine a scenario where Fidesz blames Brussels for all the pain, if they didn't stand-up to Putin the way they did. Personally, I am amazed that a country still bent on Trianon and the 1956 revolution should develop amnesia and a lack of sympathy for Ukraine. It's been said to be a huge thorn in the side of Poland, who may reconsider some of their mutual admiration vetoes with Hungary.The question is really timing. Will Europe be able to source enough energy to overcome the shortfall from boycotting Russian energy? And in order to compensate, countries are delaying or restarting coal plants and other higher polluting energy sources. I do wonder how the German Greens have squared their circle of wanting to close down nuclear but now see a coal power resurgence in Germany.Then also, boycotting Russian props up harsh regimes elsewhere. The Rouble has never seen such strength in its own value in the past decade, while the forint plunges. Will food production recover from the major effects on grain exports from both Russia and Ukraine?So many issues...But the issue for me is that all could be solved relatively easily (or have been prevented) except for the egos of pathetic men in power, such as Putin and O1G. Just a slight change, a different path and the world would be a better place. Instead, we see the world destroying itself. It's so frustrating.- @Vicces1
Not being vaccinated is one of those living Darwin proofs. Out of all of us revolving around the plug hole, the unvaccinated are going a lot faster and will be self-limiting. Genetics vs beliefs or nature vs nuture. The usual arguments apply.
O1G wouldn't be bothered about beneficial ownership issues. They'll just ignore it or are being given opportunity to restructure just in case. There are lots of rumours about others around here like Lukashenko squirreling it away in Dubai. I can see that being a significant possibility for those here too.
It's interesting how nuclear is being "rehabilitated". I used to have a German language sticker on a suitcase that said "Atomkraft, nein Danke!". I suppose the German ones now say "Atomkraft, Ja bitte".
Anyway, Putin (or Putler as some refer to him as) is on the back foot. I'm following the situation there every day. The latest missile launchers from the US and other Howitzers potentially being offered from NATO aspirant Sweden etc are going to change the game - albeit slowly. As you say, what happens when Putler is defeated and O1G has to explain away his support for the autocrat? I cannot see any see any spin he could put on it given collective amnesia. Even the EU couldn't imagine being blamed for it. I am sure O1G and the rest are working on it. In the small scale of HU, who really cares, there will be more important work to do on Russia.
In the wider context, I think there could still be a wider war against Russia who will eventually be defeated. I can even see the Allies demanding Russia being broken up. in the aftermath, maybe even China will do a land grab across the Russian Far East. Maybe even Japan will muscle in when central authority fails in Moscow.
All of this means to me that there will be years of pain to come.
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