CSTO is falling to pieces.
Since the Russians did nothing to stop Azerbaijan prompted by Turkey invading the previously Armenian administered territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. It's not going to end well. I cannot see Armenia remaining in the CSTO. On the upside (for Russia), Kazakhstan's President does owe Russia for quelling the recent civil unrest. But that's about it.
Lukashenko thinks it means something to be in a Union with Russia but it just means being subjugated to Putin's will. If Luka turned against PU, he would fall out of a window and Belarus would be a Russian province. PU's plan to resurrect the Soviet Union means the countries in CSTO bend to PU's will. I don't think they want that - they've been independent for 30 years.
More locally, no-one cares if HU participates or not in a wider conflict (god forbid), nor in any plans thereafter. I doubt the HU military's abilities anyway. It's military is just too small to make any real difference. In any case, if there was a land based assistance by NATO into Ukraine, it would via Poland. I don't think any of the current borders would make any difference. I suspect if NATO was involved, it would be mainly air power. UKR has it pretty much sown up militarily on the ground.
An interesting aspect would be Sweden and Finland. Sweden are hotshots on military gear and Finland has a very extensive territorial army. They would need to be mobilised if Russia decided to make another mistake invading Finland (again). Kalingrad would be lost to Russia within days or at least, most of it's ability to mobilise for war would be destroyed. The Baltics would help to reinforce the Suwałki gap and their borders with Russia.
Moldova is quite in a pickle. Transnistria is held by about 1500 locally recruited Russian speaker soldiers. They seem to be completely cut off from Russia. Maybe it will force the separatists to the negotiating table. Speculating even further into the future, I could see a scenario where Ukraine invades Transnistria to remove any Russian threat from there. The place is full of Ukrainians so it could happen with local support. Maybe even Romania gets involved as peacekeepers, with the region returning to Moldova after a time. I suppose many Russians there would choose to leave for Russia.
My reasoning on generations to change Russia is based on knowledge of acceptance of societal change. Not media BS.
-@fluffy2560
The Caucasus is somewhat similar to the Balcans: a powder keg and with folks who can hate and wage war on an instant also VERY vengeancefull. Either cool/ friendly or "you will die" enemy style.
Lukashenko tried to maintain close relationship with Russia, and in the meantime wink to the western direction. Tried to upkeep a balance, and act as a mediator between opposing sides while upkeep rulership as the "strongman of Belarus".
Get an orange revulution/ insurgency attemp insted from the west side, so get out of option only Russia remained.
" PU's plan to resurrect the Soviet Union"
Certainly Russia have a major interest to have close relations and some level of cooperation with CIS countries. It is a natural sphere of influence. At the bare minimum: not to be sorrunded by enemies/ hostile proxies.
" I doubt the HU military's abilities anyway."
It has the ability to cc. delay an attack from Transcarpathia by a few hours before the troops reach the Balaton. If would witstand any attack for days that would be called miracle.
The army is not a force to note.
But after the army gets defeated certain movements and individuals would give a hell of for the occupation forces.
If NATO troops would be involved in Ukraine that most likely would lead ww3.
Except maybe the strange proposition from Poland, which probably occupy the western part of Ukraine which historically was Polish territory: officially put under it's protectorate as some sort of autonomus region with Lemberg as local administration centre.
Scandinavia is long since fallen: lost roots and society.
It is not the Viking Age, nor the folks of ww2, Mannerheim would cry if would seen the present.
For what should they fight for? More feminists/ quotas, more african gangs in Malmo, more antifa terrorist groups, more chemically castrated transgender kids, more returning ISIS members?
But this part:
"My reasoning on generations to change Russia is based on knowledge of acceptance of societal change. "
I don't understand what do you try to say.