Tracking Irma

Should I  Stay or Should I Go, great song. I agree with Peach and Gary, go, now. Solo, no kids, no pets, no brainer, button down the hatch and boogie. If it gets gloomier, you won't find a seat on an airplane.

Weigh the 2 regrets: regretted you spent the money, normal thought, and it turned out to be a nothing storm, or regret you stayed...........you fill in the blanks

NOAA fly boys and gals from the Hurricane Center, Dept of Commerce, will start doing their penetration into the eye when it gets close enough. Irma still a long long way out for their size/fuel range now about halfway between Africa and PR give or take a few hundred klicks.

Those are brave souls. They'll relay the data, takes awhile, 6 hs I was told once, for the folks with the grey matter to crunch.

Does anyone know if the airport will be closed tomorrow? If I get a flight out tomorrow?

Airlines will continue flying as long as the airport is open. I have a flight out tomorrow and had not heard anything different so far.

IMO if you have the option to get outa Dodge, best jump on it.

Make plans and be prepared!!!!

Wednesday night maybe iffy

last info forecast wind in PR to hit 75.

The current info available is all that will be available until 2300 EST at least from the NOAA National Hurricane Center. Hurricane Hunter Air Missions left Barbados several hours ago, maybe the next report will have that data.

Their model is showing the center will pass PR in 60-70 hours @

19.1N  63.5W.      130-140 MPH winds.

My rough estimate of that was 160 miles 

Irma's Hurricane 140-150 mph winds extending 35 mile from center, tropical winds 140 miles.

Euro model has it passing further south (meaning closer), no coordinates available, to me anyway.

I am concerned about possible storm surge on the north coast.   

USCG wrote:

The current info available is all that will be available until 2300 EST at least from the NOAA National Hurricane Center. Hurricane Hunter Air Missions left Barbados several hours ago, maybe the next report will have that data.

Their model is showing the center will pass PR in 60-70 hours @

19.1N  63.5W.      130-140 MPH winds.

My rough estimate of that was 160 miles 

Irma's Hurricane 140-150 mph winds extending 35 mile from center, tropical winds 140 miles.

Euro model has it passing further south (meaning closer), no coordinates available, to me anyway.

I am betting on the Euro model, to me it looks like it is still heading south so Euro model to me looks like it may be right on the money.
But I could be wrong.

ReyP wrote:

But I could be wrong.

I sure hope you are wrong. 

I personally go for the NHC forecast. The meteorologists there really know their trade and take next to several models other factors in account to base their forecast on.
Hopefully Irma's strongest winds will stay away from PR..

Me too, I hope I am wrong.

This time they have been on the money, so far.

Say a Little Prayer.

Dionne Warwick, 1967. Sold a million+.

Aretha's redux wasn't bad either.

If NOAA Irma model remains steady as she goes, she's not expected to begin turning north until 0800 Tuesday.

PS: NOAA 2300 hs update "no change"

I am with USCG, I think it is going to be a lot closer than they think. I am betting on just 25 miles from the north shore. It is still going south based on what I seen from the moving images.
But It may be my eyes.

Hey Sitka,
You are on the coast, are you going to be in PR during the storm?
How close are you to the water?
Any chance of a picture of the water edge and your place?

The forecast still keeps the center of the storm at something like 80 miles north of the coast when it passes PR. Also, for the last 7 hours it didn't move further south but it stays around 17 deg latitude. That could be good news for the islands and PR when the turn to the WNW and NW still starts when predicted. 20-40 miles more north is a lot of difference!

"I hear hurricanes a-blowing... I know the end is coming soon"

Bad Moon Rising
Creedence - Clearwater Revival, 1969

NOAA is saying noaa to that foot stomper for PR.  0800 Advisory "No change" and no change for her predicted coordinates when her eye passes PR. 130-70 miles out my rough measurement of their data.

The only info NOAA has released from last night's Air missions is that her winds are 10 mph stronger.

Next NOAA update 1100 EST/AST.

US Model has been on the moola. The critical test for it in my untrained brain is tomorrow morning when she is predicted to start her north tick. If she don't, she won't, hope you got your Cesna loant.

"Hit the Road Jack"

Ray Charles

#1 on the charts1961

USCG wrote:

...predicted coordinates when her eye passes PR. 130-70 miles out my rough measurement of their data.

That's good enough for me. Some tropical storm force winds which we can easily handle and a lot of rain which ain't too bad on 800' above sea level.

ReyP wrote:

Hey Sitka,
You are on the coast, are you going to be in PR during the storm?
How close are you to the water?
Any chance of a picture of the water edge and your place?

Hi Rey,
Yes our place is on the beach (for now )- it may get washed out to sea if we get a big surge.   
On the other hand, it is concrete and has weathered storms in past.

We are currently not on the island so can't give any details on storm conditions.  Our friend is staying at the beach house, doing what he can to prepare for the storm.

Any thoughts on how this will impact Aguadilla area? 
My house is in a neighborhood with other houses on hill with a view of the ocean. 
Its cement and I am in the process of doing some work.

If you are on high ground no worry of flooding.  Just heavy rain and tropical storm winds.

Since Aguadilla is on the west, the exp cted current trajectory is that the storm will pass further up north than the San Juan area and Fajardo area. So likely you will see a hair less effect. However things can change it is still too far

NOAA Advisory @ 1100 issued formal Hurricane Watch for PR. Not a Hurricane Warning.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

The Watch was a foregone conclusion once the conditions were within 48 hs of PR which everyone knew would happen so nothing unexpected. A Warning will probably follow late tonight.

Next Intermediate Advisory at 1400 AST, full at 1700.

So State-siders, an overwhelming majority of expat.com, go cut the grass.

What's I'm doing, been a long, long time since I hated doing that.

But, the smell of fresh cut grass should be bottled for aromatherapy.

That's about it for us, all I can do is mow the lawn and have a beer and watch the weather channel.     

Sitka wrote:

ReyP wrote:

Hey Sitka,
You are on the coast, are you going to be in PR during the storm?
How close are you to the water?
Any chance of a picture of the water edge and your place?

Hi Rey,
Yes our place is on the beach (for now )- it may get washed out to sea if we get a big surge.   
On the other hand, it is concrete and has weathered storms in past.

We are currently not on the island so can't give any details on storm conditions.  Our friend is staying at the beach house, doing what he can to prepare for the storm.

The joys of beach front property

Yup, for us it's a real nail biter.   Perhaps I am extra gun shy after going through several named storms and a direct hit by Ike.   When you live on the Gulf coast, it is not a question of will I get hit, but when.

If Irma tracks well off shore - 80+ miles, we may not get flooded.  But if it is close...well it is what it is.

We're in Fajardo within 2 min walking distance from an evacuation zone on the marina  but in a concrete condo that should be ok.  Here's hoping anyway!  Just returned from the madness of trying to find water (there is none) and a few other supplies.  Nothing to do now but wait.

MimiEv wrote:

We're in Fajardo within 2 min walking distance from an evacuation zone on the marina  but in a concrete condo that should be ok.  Here's hoping anyway!  Just returned from the madness of trying to find water (there is none) and a few other supplies.  Nothing to do now but wait.

You mostly need containers to hold water, fill them now and have them ready to go while you still have water. Yes it is not charcol filtered but it is water.
Buckets, empty bottles, tubs, whatever you can use.

What's so important about cutting grass?

Maryeb5762 wrote:

What's so important about cutting grass?

nothing...simply a diversion from obsessing over the storm.   

Maryeb5762 wrote:

What's so important about cutting grass?

They are not in PR.

Irma is now cat 4

I cut my grass yesterday when I got home from Arizona, and I'm still obsessing! First hurricane for me  and I just happen to live on the North Shore in Vega Baja, Man,  couldn't I have been eased into this? Maybe a couple of tropical storm's at first? But no, instead it looks like I'm going to get slammed right in the face with this.

Spencerazac wrote:

I cut my grass yesterday when I got home from Arizona, and I'm still obsessing! First hurricane for me  and I just happen to live on the North Shore in Vega Baja, Man,  couldn't I have been eased into this? Maybe a couple of tropical storm's at first? But no, instead it looks like I'm going to get slammed right in the face with this.

Fasten your seat belt, could be a bumpy ride.  When we got hit by Ike it slammed in at night ( I hated that), no power, dark, an a freight train roaring overhead at 90db for hours.   I thought the roof was going to fly off any second.   

Keep us posted as to your status.

AEE just gave a conference, they said that due to conditions of the electric system, some areas will likely receive electricity 1 week after the huracán while other areas may have to wait 3 to 4 months to get power.

Seems it is common for storms to reach the island in the early part of the morning (1-5 am).

Not good!

3 to 4 months???  wow, my new house will have generator / solar.   With out power, gas stations, stores, banks etc will be down.

Some business have generators, that may help.

Sitka wrote:

I am concerned about possible storm surge on the north coast.   

2-4' on the N coast if at high tide based on current forecast.

Some gas station are out of gas some have raised their price.
A fight broke out at a Sam's club over generators, police had to intervene.
It is getting a bit out of order and we still have 2 days before the storm.

Sitka wrote:

3 to 4 months???  wow, my new house will have generator / solar.   With out power, gas stations, stores, banks etc will be down.

Some business have generators, that may help.

Check out how well solar panels do in a strong storm of 140 miles an hour, not sure but they may leave your roof and go flying.