Brexit and its implications for British, HU and any other citizens

fluffy2560 wrote:

DT must be happy too because he's managed to help out Vlad.  Not sure what the Chinese will get out of the Iran situation.  Maybe Vlad and the Chinese have an agreement not to tread on each others toes elsewhere - USA has been ignoring the Pacific for sometime and significant nations out that way are going China instead of US ally Taiwan.
.

The South China Morning Post is reporting China will support Iran - Given the oil relationship, that's no shock. Quite how far they'll go is debatable, but it's likely to be a minimum of political support and weapons.
Russia, China, and Iran have just been involved in joint war games so your other question is answered.

Cynic wrote:

fluffy2560 wrote:

.... I think this now going to fizzle out but the plane crash this morning in Tehran is somewhat strange.  Speculation on the radio is that someone shot it down because it was taking off in a particular direction (same as the missiles).

It is a bit weird that within a very short time the Iranian authorities have said that the cause of the crash was a mechanical problem and definitely not a result of anything else untoward.

Latest is that they won't share the black box with Boeing.  Could be as a result of sanctions or could be they don't want to anyone to know they accidentally shot it down.  If they give the bodies back, maybe they'll find shrapnel damage from exploding objects.  Locals will be buried in 24h as is the Islamic tradition (I believe) so there's only the foreigners - perhaps they'll be returned cremated.

Read on Twitter earlier that allegedly, original film from the crash scene on Iranian TV is claimed to show holes in the fuselage commensurate with shrapnel damage.  Government has now stopped all broadcasts from the area.

Ukraine has ruled out a missile strike

Fred wrote:

Ukraine has ruled out a missile strike

How'd they rule that out from 1000s of km away?   Might be they had the remote data monitoring system transmitting.

BTW, some commentator was saying Israeli government is rather keen on escalation and they are spoiling for a fight with Iran as they are becoming surrounded by Iranian proxies.

The good news is Trump has backed down, the bad news is (For Trump and the US), America looks stupid.

As a note, the Iranian strike looks a lot like a slap in he face job rather than a serious attack. I say this because the missiles, in my opinion, were fired without explosive warheads so the bases suffered impact damage only, nothing else.
Not seen that reported yet but it's a bit obvious - Did you hear that from SuperFred first?

It's been reported, there are impact assessment photos on Twitter; but Twitter is now swamped with Harry and Meghan stories and all the Trends are now on the Royal family.  If you're interested I'll try and find a link when I get a moment.

One other thing that interested me is how all the air traffic flying over the Middle East last night was diverted without any issues; seemed like everybody was flying with full tanks which is unusual.

Cynic wrote:

....

One other thing that interested me is how all the air traffic flying over the Middle East last night was diverted without any issues; seemed like everybody was flying with full tanks which is unusual.

I just looked at FlightRadar24 and indeed, there's a big "hole" over Iran and Iraq.  Traffic seems to be limited to Iranian airlines, Turkish airlines, Pakistan Airlines, Qatar and FlyDubai.   Perhaps neutrals and locals.

I don't know how you can tell they have full tanks?  But anyway I suppose fuel tanks being full allows for plenty of diversion options although vaguely I seem to remember (maybe wrongly), they need 45 minutes of fuel minimum for diversion to alternates overland and minimum 2h if over the sea.

Harry and Meghan Sparkle - yes, top news over and above Trump and Brexit.  Maybe it's H&M-exit.

Said on the radio more missiles are landing around the US embassy in Baghdad but no-one hurt. I'd be surprised there's anyone left in that building.

Fred wrote:

The good news is Trump has backed down, the bad news is (For Trump and the US), America looks stupid.

As a note, the Iranian strike looks a lot like a slap in he face job rather than a serious attack. I say this because the missiles, in my opinion, were fired without explosive warheads so the bases suffered impact damage only, nothing else.
Not seen that reported yet but it's a bit obvious - Did you hear that from SuperFred first?

It'll just be Iranian spin.  I noticed Trump in his press conference said they had hypersonic missiles. I guess that's a nudge to the Russians as well as the Iranians.  They could have put something in the warheads, like flowers or chocolates or cans of Miller Lite (it's not really beer) with notes saying "Go Home Imperialist Yankees".

My 'no explosives' assertion is based on the damage shown in satellite images. The rockets have created a crater and knocked down a couple of buildings, but buildings next to the totalled ones are intact.
If you compare them to the damage from WWII V2 attacks on London that took apart whole streets, there's almost no damage, that suggesting there were no warheads.

Take a look at the images - The holes are impact craters, not explosions.

Fred wrote:

Take a look at the images - The holes are impact craters, not explosions.

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpspr … 640-nc.png

I  did look at those BBC reported pictures. I wondered if it was just because they were hardened buildings or they failed to explode.   I'm assuming they were actually aiming to hit those specific buildings accurately. Reports said that the missiles were launched from Iranian territory so they must be being delivered to coordinates via GPS.  Two missiles failed to go bang and landed inaccurately.

fluffy2560 wrote:

Cynic wrote:

....

One other thing that interested me is how all the air traffic flying over the Middle East last night was diverted without any issues; seemed like everybody was flying with full tanks which is unusual.

I just looked at FlightRadar24 and indeed, there's a big "hole" over Iran and Iraq.  Traffic seems to be limited to Iranian airlines, Turkish airlines, Pakistan Airlines, Qatar and FlyDubai.   Perhaps neutrals and locals.

I don't know how you can tell they have full tanks?  But anyway I suppose fuel tanks being full allows for plenty of diversion options although vaguely I seem to remember (maybe wrongly), they need 45 minutes of fuel minimum for diversion to alternates overland and minimum 2h if over the sea.

Harry and Meghan Sparkle - yes, top news over and above Trump and Brexit.  Maybe it's H&M-exit.

Said on the radio more missiles are landing around the US embassy in Baghdad but no-one hurt. I'd be surprised there's anyone left in that building.

That region of the mIddle-East is a major highway for international air-traffic; my comment is also based on the FlightRadar24 data at the time, that within minutes Kuwaiti air traffic had re-routed everything out of the region, there were no diversions or PAN calls because of fuel.  The only flight that seems to have been caught overhead was BA134, which did a quick 360 and diverted west into Kuwaiti airspace.  From that, I'm assuming that they had more than diversionary fuel on board, which is not common practice and so interested me.  Maybe indicative of changes to airline operating procedures.

Anyway, all seems relatively back to normal, although the FAA has issued 3 permanent NOTAM's banning US operations (US carriers, registered and licensed airmen over Iran, Iraq, the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman).

Cynic wrote:

....
That region of the mIddle-East is a major highway for international air-traffic; my comment is also based on the FlightRadar24 data at the time, that within minutes Kuwaiti air traffic had re-routed everything out of the region, there were no diversions or PAN calls because of fuel.  The only flight that seems to have been caught overhead was BA134, which did a quick 360 and diverted west into Kuwaiti airspace.  From that, I'm assuming that they had more than diversionary fuel on board, which is not common practice and so interested me.  Maybe indicative of changes to airline operating procedures.

Anyway, all seems relatively back to normal, although the FAA has issued 3 permanent NOTAM's banning US operations (US carriers, registered and licensed airmen over Iran, Iraq, the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman).

That's good info.

I looked at BA134 (Mumbai-London) from yesterday (8 Jan) and it landed at Athens, presumably due to being short of fuel after circling over Kuwait.   There's mention of it on The Independent (install Reader View extension if using an AdBlocker).   They could always route further North over Afghanistan or Tajikistan etc or skim the bottom of Iran and go around over Oman.  Actual NOTAMs here. 

It all seems reasonable to divert around, no-one wants another MH17

In Brexit news:

Brexit: Full UK-EU trade deal 'impossible' by deadline - von der Leyen

I cannot see BoJo being able to pull it off in the time available.

fluffy2560 wrote:

Cynic wrote:

....
That region of the mIddle-East is a major highway for international air-traffic; my comment is also based on the FlightRadar24 data at the time, that within minutes Kuwaiti air traffic had re-routed everything out of the region, there were no diversions or PAN calls because of fuel.  The only flight that seems to have been caught overhead was BA134, which did a quick 360 and diverted west into Kuwaiti airspace.  From that, I'm assuming that they had more than diversionary fuel on board, which is not common practice and so interested me.  Maybe indicative of changes to airline operating procedures.

Anyway, all seems relatively back to normal, although the FAA has issued 3 permanent NOTAM's banning US operations (US carriers, registered and licensed airmen over Iran, Iraq, the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman).

That's good info.

I looked at BA134 (Mumbai-London) from yesterday (8 Jan) and it landed at Athens, presumably due to being short of fuel after circling over Kuwait.   There's mention of it on The Independent (install Reader View extension if using an AdBlocker).   They could always route further North over Afghanistan or Tajikistan etc or skim the bottom of Iran and go around over Oman.  Actual NOTAMs here. 

It all seems reasonable to divert around, no-one wants another MH17

Thanks for the links.  From the Independent article, the BA flight diverted west 20 minutes before the first missile went off.  I think that someone(thing?) had warned Kuwaiti ATC that something was about to happen, which gave them time to plan the diversions without the chaos you would normally associate with military hostilities.

fluffy2560 wrote:

In Brexit news:

Brexit: Full UK-EU trade deal 'impossible' by deadline - von der Leyen

I cannot see BoJo being able to pull it off in the time available.

Conflicting information.  If it's impossible, then no deal is the default, but Boris turned off the UK Government no-deal planning centre before Christmas; I know a couple of people who were working there, one of them has been told she probably won't be needed again and has been re-deployed.

Cynic wrote:

fluffy2560 wrote:

In Brexit news:

Brexit: Full UK-EU trade deal 'impossible' by deadline - von der Leyen

I cannot see BoJo being able to pull it off in the time available.

Conflicting information.  If it's impossible, then no deal is the default, but Boris turned off the UK Government no-deal planning centre before Christmas; I know a couple of people who were working there, one of them has been told she probably won't be needed again and has been re-deployed.

That sounds quite ridiculous.   We know the Department for Exiting the EU has been disbanded.  You'd think they'd just merge it into something else to retain the expertise. 

Boris hasn't merged DFID with the Foreign Office which was rumoured - UK will assert its own programmes outside of the EU aid structure which it will no longer participate in.  Not particularly interesting news as it usually channels aid through other agencies anyway.   DFID has limited capabilities and has lost a lot of internal knowledge to outsourcing.  Not too unusual - GiZ (German Aid) has the same kind of idea.

Cynic wrote:

....
Thanks for the links.  From the Independent article, the BA flight diverted west 20 minutes before the first missile went off.  I think that someone(thing?) had warned Kuwaiti ATC that something was about to happen, which gave them time to plan the diversions without the chaos you would normally associate with military hostilities.

Yes, sounds like they were warned but by whom?  You'd think people would be aware not to route their planes over Iraq anytime soon and definitely before they set off.

fluffy2560 wrote:

Cynic wrote:

....
Thanks for the links.  From the Independent article, the BA flight diverted west 20 minutes before the first missile went off.  I think that someone(thing?) had warned Kuwaiti ATC that something was about to happen, which gave them time to plan the diversions without the chaos you would normally associate with military hostilities.

Yes, sounds like they were warned but by whom?  You'd think people would be aware not to route their planes over Iraq anytime soon and definitely before they set off.

An ex-colleague tells me that the Iraqi and US military have shared the Joint Operations Centre in Baghdad since the fall of Sadam's regime; probably explains how everybody got warned of what was happening and where they were targetting.

Iran plane crash: Downing Street looking into reports Ukrainian jet was shot down by missile

Downing Street says it is looking into "very concerning" reports about the Tehran airliner crash.

It came after speculation in the media that the Ukrainian jet was shot down by a missile.

SimCityAT wrote:

Iran plane crash: Downing Street looking into reports Ukrainian jet was shot down by missile

Downing Street says it is looking into "very concerning" reports about the Tehran airliner crash.

It came after speculation in the media that the Ukrainian jet was shot down by a missile.

I've seen reports that an Iranian anti-aircraft battery took it down; nothing confirmed though.

Apparently the US is now acknowledging this - apparently a "mistake" was made by the Iranians; this whole thing is starting to stink.

Cynic wrote:

SimCityAT wrote:

Iran plane crash: Downing Street looking into reports Ukrainian jet was shot down by missile

Downing Street says it is looking into "very concerning" reports about the Tehran airliner crash.

It came after speculation in the media that the Ukrainian jet was shot down by a missile.

I've seen reports that an Iranian anti-aircraft battery took it down; nothing confirmed though.

Apparently the US is now acknowledging this - apparently a "mistake" was made by the Iranians; this whole thing is starting to stink.

I think we were all speculating first so maybe DT should get in touch so we can advise him. 

Radio says Western side is saying indeed that it was a mistake - presumably to avoid escalation.   I wonder if some incompetent from the Revolutionary Guard did it outside the control of the Iranian central government.  USA has done this itself to Iran some years ago.  Loose cannons, loose missiles, loose minds.

I am wondering if the Ukrainians, Canadians, Germans and British and others will be firing cruise missiles at Tehran now.   They'll get blown off the face of the Earth.

Well, it would seem that it was a tragic mistake by Iran.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has said he has intelligence that indicates a passenger plane that crashed in Iran was shot down.

I would like to think it's still too early to confirm anything yet, so we will wait to see what investigations have to say.

The initial photo's from the scene that was later removed by the Iranian Government are very clear that the fuselage and wing areas suffered shrapnel damage; further, the fact they have refused to give up the black box (which would indicate any mechanical issues with the engines) to the aircraft manufacturer is indicative that there is at least some obfuscation going on here.

I'm not suggesting it was deliberate, but it's typical of what happens with inexperienced militias when they are wound up to believe that Satan could be arriving on the next aircraft.

Just to add, they have now released photos of the missile wreckage found at the scene; it's a Russian made SAM.

Apparently they are bulldozing the site now.   There's apparently a video/audio track with two bangs on it.   US say satellites show launch of missiles.  One thing I didn't know is the plane was delayed 1h so clearly the missile operators didn't have the latest info. Shoot first, ask questions afterwards.

Trump is going to play it down as a mistake but it's very unfortunate for him that Trudeau's got a big role to play, given the number of Canadian victims. He basically blamed Trump for it all in the press conference.   Another nail in Canadian-US relations given the sniping that goes on between those leaders.

Brexit News (from alert system):

--------
United Kingdom: House of Commons passes Brexit agreement

On 9 January 2020 the House of Commons voted to pass a proposed agreement on withdrawing from the EU, a process commonly known as Brexit. Under legislation expected to be fully enacted in the next few weeks, the UK will exit the EU on 31 January and enter an interim period in which EU economic regulations will generally continue to apply until the end of 2020. During this time, the government is expected to negotiate a trade agreement with the bloc, although significant uncertainty exists regarding the potential provisions.

Although the parliamentary vote largely confirms that Brexit will take place on 31 January, the process remains highly controversial and will likely continue to be a recurring source of protest activity and political tensions in the coming months.
----
Bit useless. You'd have to have been living on the moon, you'd already know this.  However, it doesn't say which passport queue to use at the airport or if other things like the EHIC or your DL is still valid or if EU negotiated visa free travel continues to apply.

I wonder if it would be a different picture if there were a lot of US citizens on the plane?

Iran says it's invited Boeing. Wonder what US sanctions have to say on Us citizens travelling to Iran and assisting the Iranian government.

SimCityAT wrote:

I wonder if it would be a different picture if there were a lot of US citizens on the plane?

Oh for sure. 

I noticed that Pelosi  and Co passed a resolution or something limiting Trump's ability to start a war without permission from their Parliament. It's only a matter of time before there's another incident and more tit-for-tat.

Trump is unlikely to stick the boot in until after the next election. 

Chances are - so say commentators - that DT will be re-elected.   If he did it before, body bags coming home will remind voters of the Viet Nam war.  I'm old enough to remember the casualty numbers being read out on TV/radio for that.  100s or more per week.  I even remember the last helicopter taking off from the US embassy in Viet Nam. Vote loser.

The reality is that if Iran was attacked, it'd probably fall to bits in about 5 minutes.  Then there would be years of more Iraq/Syria type involvement and lack of stability across the entire region. 

I was looking at a map and there's a band of territories extending all the way from China across to the Med which is in chaos or involving the Americans.   It's like the creation of a belt.  This is what Russia did with Eastern Europe - created a buffer zone.  Made me wonder what the bigger plan was.


NYT has video of the missile attack.

Only one comment really - it's an election year (Tuesday, 3 November 2020) in the USA; everything that comes out of there needs to be viewed in that context.  Nobody (not even Trump) is going to say or do anything without first considering its impact on the election; the recent assassination was conducted with this in mind, of this, I have no doubt.  The only actions that will be taken between now and then will be those that the parties think will improve their chances of winning.  I would lump both of the political parties in this statement.

fluffy2560 wrote:

Locals will be buried in 24h as is the Islamic tradition (I believe) so there's only the foreigners - perhaps they'll be returned cremated.

An interesting point just raised on the news here in the UK; Iran does not recognise dual nationality, all those on board as far as they are concerned (except the crew) were Iranian citizens - not foreigners.  So, perhaps a case of "here you go Mr Ukraine, this box contains your remains, the rest is ours and will be buried within 24 hours as provided for by their faith" - queue crowds of millions burning the US, Brit, whoever's flags.

The airliner, as with so much else, is being used as a political scoring point by way too many people.
We have people saying it was a missile, pictures of missile parts supposed to be close to the crash site (Yep, Iran is really going to release something like that to the low end of the British comics), and loads of experts that are really just computer warriors spouting.
The possibilities include:

Un-contained engine failure/other massive technical issue
A missile accidentally fired by Iran
A missile deliberately fired by Mossad/CIA/whoever

There's way too much fog and false news kicking around to know what's really what because way too many people have something to gain from making it someone else's fault.

As for Boeing, I'm unsure I'd trust them to butter my toast after the latest set of emails they were forced into releasing. That lot show a catalog of deception and pressure not to test the Max properly and, worse, warnings from their own people there was going to be an accident because it was a lump of crap.

However, I fully expect the US government to allow Boeing people anywhere near Iran - nothing to do with anything except it allows them to put blame on Iran regardless of the truth.

We also have a very handy video of nothing, but with a fast moving missile shooting down an airliner in the background.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/video … lane-video

I often take videos of nobody doing nothing on an empty street at night, and always seem to capture an airliner being shot down when I do it.

That isn't to say it wasn't a missile, but the only evidence is from the fat gobs of interested parties, so it's just a suggestion people take care what they believe.

EDIT - The latest is the US is now saying the aircraft was shot down by 2 Russian made missiles, but it appears on the video above the second one was invisible as it doesn't show up at all. Maybe it had a Romulan cloaking device or Harry Potter has broken sanctions and lent his invisibility cloak to Iran.

Of one thing I'm reasonably certain, the US will have had enough ELINT assets in the region and in orbit to know exactly what happened; they'll never release it because then everyone will know just how much they know about us.

Cynic wrote:

Of one thing I'm reasonably certain, the US will have had enough ELINT assets in the region and in orbit to know exactly what happened; they'll never release it because then everyone will know just how much they know about us.

It isn't the intel, more the less than likely video of nothing doing nothing that just happened to catch an airliner being shot down by two missiles, one of which was invisible.

The story smells like a fish that's been dead for five week and left out in the sun to mature.
However, no country will want their intel exposed so we'll never know the truth, only the story.

Fred wrote:

....

EDIT - The latest is the US is now saying the aircraft was shot down by 2 Russian made missiles, but it appears on the video above the second one was invisible as it doesn't show up at all. Maybe it had a Romulan cloaking device or Harry Potter has broken sanctions and lent his invisibility cloak to Iran.

Forget Harry Pothead. 

Having worked in the Middle East, they really do believe when it's useful in Djins/Jinns.   Maybe the Western (or further Eastern) equivalents would be bad karma.

I was in a low speed car collision out that way and the drivers excuse was Djins rather than not paying attention   

I am not sure what he put on his insurance claim (which might be akin to gambling and not allowed anyway). 

More seriously, there's more chance of it being the Romulans. The mythology is they were an offshoot of the Vulcans that had rejected logic.  For cloaking technology, you might be thinking of Klingons.  If you're suffering from Klingons, it's time to have a shower.

Cynic wrote:

Of one thing I'm reasonably certain, the US will have had enough ELINT assets in the region and in orbit to know exactly what happened; they'll never release it because then everyone will know just how much they know about us.

I dunno, I think it'll work in their favour to chuck some propaganda at Iran.  Just the usual war of words.  But I think Trump will come under pressure about it from Allies which he'll ignore.  Opinion seems to be saying it all leads back to Trump in the end after the killing of the General.   

I think give it a couple of weeks and it'll fade away.  UK media has Brexit to cover in 3 weeks and it'll get pushed off the news agenda.

The Chinese year of the rat is upon us  soon. I'm sure the press will find plenty of them to talk about.

However, the usual gutter press is doing a lot of talking about Hewitt's son and his wife doing a runner from the royal loony bin so I have to assume the maybe ex-royals are Iranian assets deflecting from the Iran stories.

Fred wrote:

The Chinese year of the rat is upon us  soon. I'm sure the press will find plenty of them to talk about.

However, the usual gutter press is doing a lot of talking about Hewitt's son and his wife doing a runner from the royal loony bin so I have to assume the maybe ex-royals are Iranian assets deflecting from the Iran stories.

That's a blast from the past - James Hewitt.   

Just looking at James vs Harry brings doubt to mind.  Harry looks nothing like Wills or Charlie.   The Windsors have quite exaggerated features - presumably from inbreeding.    If it was Hewitt that dipped his wick, I suppose what all that hidden intrigue illustrates is that they are just as dysfunctional as the rest of us. 

Being in the Royal Family is a tightrope that anyone with any sense will want to avoid walking on.  But I'd take the cash over the lifestyle.