Brexit and its implications for British, HU and any other citizens

Cynic wrote:

Daily Express website

I meant to the actual article on the subject rather than just the general web site. 

As you said about variations on paperwork at borders, references (preferably multiple ones) are important.   I'm quite used to working with government types and some of them will blatantly make stuff up in order to get rid of you!  It's often what they think it should be like than the reality.

In Hungary we all wonder what is going on at the queue front end (for whatever it might be) that takes so long.  It's because the person serving may be telling you something that is totally wrong and by asking the same question in different ways, it's possible to try and find out more and check for gaps in the answer.  Even I do it to try and confirm and reconfirm.   Even better, try and triangulate from multiple sources to try and even out all the waffle and opinion from the facts.

And if there's a definitive answer, get a paper with a rubber stamp saying it's so, even if it's not really required!

fluffy2560 wrote:

Cynic wrote:

Daily Express website

I meant to the actual article on the subject rather than just the general web site. 

....

It was the lead article on the front page; here is the link to the article.

Cynic wrote:

fluffy2560 wrote:

Cynic wrote:

Daily Express website

I meant to the actual article on the subject rather than just the general web site. 

....

It was the lead article on the front page; here is the link to the article.

Doesn't really give any information just waffles on.  What they should have done is published a list!

I just listened to the fake bongs from a Big Ben recording on LBC.

We're out.

I'm quite sad about it even though I'm quite keen to stick the boot in on the EU - err....sorry...hold them to account. 

Still don't know for sure what's what as far as on the ground, in your face, Brexit reality will be like.

Brexit has happened and, whatever your take on the situation, it's very clear there are going to be massive repercussions over time, and not just in Europe.
The Spanish are already moving to take Gib and the French are desperate to keep fishing in UK waters - Just the start of a lot of messing around to come.

Fred wrote:

Brexit has happened and, whatever your take on the situation, it's very clear there are going to be massive repercussions over time, and not just in Europe.
The Spanish are already moving to take Gib and the French are desperate to keep fishing in UK waters - Just the start of a lot of messing around to come.

The Spanish won't dare to try and take Gib by force.  They'd be pulverised and the UK will send their aircraft carrier down there.  But I do expect the Spanish to hassle people.  The Spanish are already in the poo for trying to jail the former Catalan government for sedition.  That's not a normal state of affairs for an EU country.   Spain and Gib is a broken record.  We can chuck Ceuta and Melilla back at them.  It's like Sturgeon with her blah-blah referendums - a one trick pony.  She's been told already to STFU.

I do expect the Spanish to put up the border though and inconvenience a lot of people.  Shame as I like Spain.

As far as I understand it. the French can continue to fish in UK waters until the end of this year.  It's all bit daft as the role of fishing in the UK economy is just about zero.  If the French really want to fish somewhere, they could just go out in the middle of the Atlantic and help themselves.

BTW, I'm old enough to remember the Cod Wars with Iceland!

Still not found out if I can use the e-gates coming into the EU.  Blinking useless f**kwits.

fluffy2560 wrote:

Cynic wrote:

fluffy2560 wrote:

I meant to the actual article on the subject rather than just the general web site. 

....

It was the lead article on the front page; here is the link to the article.

Doesn't really give any information just waffles on.  What they should have done is published a list!

The Express also edits its stuff, one of the reasons why I don't like linking to them.

fluffy2560 wrote:

Fred wrote:

Brexit has happened and, whatever your take on the situation, it's very clear there are going to be massive repercussions over time, and not just in Europe.
The Spanish are already moving to take Gib and the French are desperate to keep fishing in UK waters - Just the start of a lot of messing around to come.

BTW, I'm old enough to remember the Cod Wars with Iceland!

Still not found out if I can use the e-gates coming into the EU.  Blinking useless f**kwits.

I'm old enough (and stupid enough) to have been serving during the Cod War; the guy on Sky News just said you can still use the gates; apparently they are not EU dependant, they are biometric passport dependent, they just showed us a US passport holder going through one.  Perhaps they are country dependant?

I have said before NOTHING changes until the end of the year!!

SimCityAT wrote:

I have said before NOTHING changes until the end of the year!!

I disagree.
The remainers are moaning a lot more, and the escapers are way more smug.

Cynic wrote:

fluffy2560 wrote:

Fred wrote:

Brexit has happened and, whatever your take on the situation, it's very clear there are going to be massive repercussions over time, and not just in Europe.
The Spanish are already moving to take Gib and the French are desperate to keep fishing in UK waters - Just the start of a lot of messing around to come.

BTW, I'm old enough to remember the Cod Wars with Iceland!

Still not found out if I can use the e-gates coming into the EU.  Blinking useless f**kwits.

I'm old enough (and stupid enough) to have been serving during the Cod War; the guy on Sky News just said you can still use the gates; apparently they are not EU dependant, they are biometric passport dependent, they just showed us a US passport holder going through one.  Perhaps they are country dependant?

The problem is that they are always talking about EU and other people coming into the UK whereas I don't care about that much.

I care about me going to Europe and not getting stuck in the queues at large airports such as Frankfurt.   UK allows other nationalities to come via that route but hardly anyone else does as it's a national and Schengen thing.   

That said, there are very large numbers of Chinese people usually coming through passports. I cannot see that happening for a few months. Must have dropped right off.

Apparently I don't know my Cod Wars mixed up - I didn't realise there was more than one. It was the 3rd Cod War I was referring to.

Fred wrote:

SimCityAT wrote:

I have said before NOTHING changes until the end of the year!!

I disagree.
The remainers are moaning a lot more, and the escapers are way more smug.

It's descended to name-calling now; someone just learned that making clever remarks doesn't make your nose resistant to getting punched.

The Rock

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 … tar-claims

The EU is backing the Spanish. No shock there.

Fred wrote:

The Rock

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 … tar-claims

The EU is backing the Spanish. No shock there.

I think it's a lot of scaremongering. Spain receives billions from British visitors for tourism.  Trying to push that agenda isn't going to fly.  I doubt Gib is anywhere the top of anyone else's agenda.  UK is (irritatingly) cosying up to HU and OV and by supporting them, they can use them as proxies perhaps.  UK isn't without its own muscle in ways other than being in the EU.  I'm surprised the Spanish even bother.  Better to just let it go  for now and fix their own problems without being aggressive - i.e. Catalonia.

The EU is making mischief

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-sc … s-51342714

Making noises about how Scotland would be welcome to break from the UK and join the EU.
Basically, tusk and the EU regime  is interfering in UK politics in order to gain advantage in future negotiations.

Fred wrote:

The EU is making mischief

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-sc … s-51342714

Making noises about how Scotland would be welcome to break from the UK and join the EU.
Basically, tusk and the EU regime  is interfering in UK politics in order to gain advantage in future negotiations.

Well, Boris has already said No to Sturgeon so saying No to Tusk is relatively easy.  Sounds like it's as you say positioning before negotiations.  Boris has been doing the same these past days.  But on the specific, if Brexit is a great success, then Sturgeon's idea is dead and buried no matter how much she plays that broken record.  Boris isn't going to be weak as he doesn't have to be - he's got a whopping majority and all the legal cards. Looks like a STFU Nicola.

Something interesting to read https://www.politico.eu/article/brits-i … e-documen/

SimCityAT wrote:

Something interesting to read https://www.politico.eu/article/brits-i … e-documen/

Hmmmm...dunno about that.   I don't like ID cards myself as that's all Big Brother stuff.  The authorities should mind their own business over what and where and when  and how I am.

I'm more concerned about free movement for everyone as it was before.

If there have to be such cards for skipping around the EU busybody and busywork ETAIS system,  I don't see why we cannot all have such cards automatically issued upon request.  And vice-versa for EU citizens to the UK. 

It shouldn't have to be about residence, simply assertion of rights.  It doesn't really need a card, a passport should be good enough!

BTW, in that article, I tried to find the "implementing decision" by clicking on the embedded link and it seems one has to request it.  So much for transparency in EU decision making.

Just another thought.  Mrs Fluffy prompted me that there was a crisis developing post-Brexit to do with how to fill in the gaps in the EU budget.  Apparently this has created more uncertainty over Hungary's membership of the EU.  OV has no ready enemies to fight for the election and  the EU was always likely to be a target when casting around for someone or something to weaponise and vilify.   

That said, the new wave of Syrians coming towards Hungary after conflict in Syria escalating and Turkey opening the border to the EU might just give a sufficient target (i.e. broken record) to get the typical HU Fidesz base voter even more on board. 

I cannot see HU leaving the EU any time soon - they get quite a wodge of cash from there.   I mean, it's like Harry and Meghan - don't expect too much support if you clear off and leave the club to go it alone.

Just saying.....

fluffy2560 wrote:

Just another thought.  Mrs Fluffy prompted me that there was a crisis developing post-Brexit to do with how to fill in the gaps in the EU budget.  Apparently this has created more uncertainty over Hungary's membership of the EU.  .

The reports I read suggest it was a mud (read - poo with and S) storm, all trying not to pay more and doing as much as possible to find excuses to kick Poland out.

fluffy2560 wrote:

That said, the new wave of Syrians coming towards Hungary after conflict in Syria escalating and Turkey opening the border to the EU might just give a sufficient target (i.e. broken record) to get the typical HU Fidesz base voter even more on board. 
...

Every country that stuck its fat nose into Syria (US, UK, France, Russia, Iran, and a few more) helped to create the refugee crisis so have a responsibility to sort it out.
As I understand it (open to correction), Hungary has been a voice of reason thus has no direct responsibility.

Fred wrote:

fluffy2560 wrote:

That said, the new wave of Syrians coming towards Hungary after conflict in Syria escalating and Turkey opening the border to the EU might just give a sufficient target (i.e. broken record) to get the typical HU Fidesz base voter even more on board. 
...

Every country that stuck its fat nose into Syria (US, UK, France, Russia, Iran, and a few more) helped to create the refugee crisis so have a responsibility to sort it out.
As I understand it (open to correction), Hungary has been a voice of reason thus has no direct responsibility.

Depends how you want to look at it.   Sure, everyone has interfered in Syria.  They are all guilty.

EU looked for consensus across the members to try and share the burden of the places where refugees would be accommodated while the conflict raged.  But Hungary took the view that refugees were likely to cause social issues in  the country, and quite blatantly, be against Judeo-Christian, very right wing, illiberal thinking.   In doing so, the PM redirected the refugees up through Croatia into other countries, thereby shifting the problem into other member states.  Moreover, refugees continue to pile up in adverse conditions at the Hungarian-Serbian border.    The policies of the HU government are now, no longer in accordance with the norms of a Westernised democracy.  In particular, they are now imprisoning refugees seeking a place of safety and withholding food from the male members of families.  This amounts to collective punishment or even crimes against humanity.  It's not that unusual, Australia is particularly bad on its record of abuse of asylum seekers.

There are other things in the region like trying to dismantle the independence of judiciary - Poland in particular. It's already gone in Hungary as he controls all the media. It's elements of dictatorship.   

Orban's style and his advisers playbook is to always identify an enemy.  I think he's picked the wrong country (Turkey) to align to.  No-one in NATO is going to help Turkey - Erdogan shot himself in the foot invading North Syria and buying Russian military gear against NATO.  The USA has gone mental not supporting the Kurds.   Erdogan made his own bed.  But Hungary, as friends with Turkey, isn't in a position to do anything to help Erdogan. No-one is going there to prop up Erdogan.   

But  anyway, there's no voice of reason with any power in Hungary.   If I was really speculating Orban could declare some existential (and nonsensical) crisis over the refugee flood and decide to rule by decree.  Then it'll be the new normal of SNAFU for Hungary.

Update:  German courts say fair trials no longer possible in Poland - only a matter of time before Hungary is similarly classified.

Brexit e-gates update:

I got off an external (non-Schengen) plane yesterday in Germany but didn't use the e-gates.   I asked the border guard if I can use them and he said I could until the end of the year.   I don't know the situation at BUD but I expect it'll be possible to use them. I'll find out next week.

BTW, the airports and planes are half-empty long distance due - presumably - to Coronavirus. Looks to me like some places will be almost impossible to get to as airlines scale back.

This Virus is certainly messing up things, I heard of stories where the plane is totally empty. The whole of Italy is on lockdown now, meetings across Europe have cancelled. The hospitality industry is taking a hit for sure. Sad times indeed.

SimCityAT wrote:

This Virus is certainly messing up things, I heard of stories where the plane is totally empty. The whole of Italy is on lockdown now, meetings across Europe have cancelled. The hospitality industry is taking a hit for sure. Sad times indeed.

I am finding the output from the UK authorities kind of interesting.   They are at least acknowledging that it's in the wild now and people will get it.  They are really saying that nature will take its course and there will be casualties.  Pragmatic and rather fatalistic but also insurance against how it was handled in any political fallout.

There's a big sign yesterday at BUD airport saying no flights to/from Northern Italy will be allowed at the airport.   Obviously even that was out of date as of this morning.

Mrs Fluffy reports one of my kids' school friends was in Italy last night and the whole family has been quarantined there.  Stopped at the border from leaving.  Another one reports holidays abroad cancelled as one person in the party has a cold and is concerned they could get quarantined unnecessarily because of panic measures.    I had plans to go to Spain later in the year. 

There's going to have to be some adjustments to compensate.  Those empty planes are subject to an 80/20 rule on slots - the slot has to be used 80% of the time otherwise it's forfeit.   EU rules.

The entire situation is unsustainable as it is right now.

British Airways has now cancelled all flights to and from Italy. Austria has also closed its border between the 2 countries. I am guessing that means all flights as well as road?

SimCityAT wrote:

British Airways has now cancelled all flights to and from Italy. Austria has also closed its border between the 2 countries. I am guessing that means all flights as well as road?

That's very dynamic changes.  Not going to do much for me as I'm not very keen on Italy myself and tend to avoid it. 

Every time I've been there something has gone wrong.   Not to make light of it (ok, maybe a bit):

1) Mrs Fluffy and I were driving through Italy and the car broke down in Trieste.  This was during the period when the war was on in Yugoslavia.  So we couldn't drive through there. And it took ages to get the spare parts.  All weekend actually.  We ended up visiting a zoo for something to do and they had 3 sweaty penguins. 

2) I went to Rome on a day visit and ended up walking to this office in the middle of nowhere and I got a blister on my foot that was very painful.

3) We went there again with the kids and the pizza we ordered took over 1h to arrive and wasn't very good.  We then drove over that bridge that collapsed. We passed over it several years before it fell down.  Lucky!

So there you have it, I condemn the entire place (apart from a few things like the TV show, Gomorrah or Roman ruins and Venetian glass and maybe Sophia Loren, ok and a lot of other things).

I heard on the radio yesterday that only 5% in the UK think immigration is an important issue in today's world.  This is a massive change from the 2016 Brexit vote when it was over 50%.

I also came across this UK timetable:

1 December 2020 – Majority of new routes under the post-Brexit immigration system become law

31 December 2020 – Remaining elements of the new rules become law (largely relating to EU nationals)

1 January 2021 – New immigration system opens, Brexit happens (at time of writing) and EU nationals subject to new Immigration Rules

January - March 2021 – Licenced sponsors to submit their annual allocation requests

31st January 2021 – Hong Kong (British National Overseas) visa route officially opens

30 June 2021 – EU national deadline for obtaining status under the EU Settlement Scheme

Shame we cannot see something from the EU governments specifically on our rights post-Brexit setting out some sort of timetable.  EU incoherence as far as I can see.  So much for negotiations as a block. Looks like a race to the bottom on both sides.

Immigration will never stop in the UK, the fact is that if for no other reason than to replace a faltering domestic population, like many countries, the UK needs Immigration,

Rights?  I hope you all get the same rights as any other 3rd nation citizen in that country, which is pretty much like the rest of the world gets on.

Fluffy, you might want to get Mrs Fluffy to check Facebook. A few countries are doing Q & A events.

SimCityAT wrote:

Fluffy, you might want to get Mrs Fluffy to check Facebook. A few countries are doing Q & A events.

Thanks but been there, done that several times!   

It's just some suspect (according to Mrs Fluffy) HU dude bluffing with charm but saying nothing at all. 

And the UK ambassador sits there, letting him get on with it but providing no solid info because that's the line of the UK government.  As solid as fog.

Cynic wrote:

Immigration will never stop in the UK, the fact is that if for no other reason than to replace a faltering domestic population, like many countries, the UK needs Immigration,

Rights?  I hope you all get the same rights as any other 3rd nation citizen in that country, which is pretty much like the rest of the world gets on.

Not really.   We retain some rights - whatever they might be - as residents.  It's like the UK Settlement Scheme.  The UK has been fairly straight about it but the EU hasn't.  The EU folks in the UK get to stay, their DLs are valid, they have indefinite leave to remain, their kids and families too and so on.   

Over here, we have no idea really what it means in any detail as there are 27 different immigration systems.  The common EU rights were treaty rights but they are all gone completely for us come 31 December 2020. 

My residence card might expire! Doesn't say but there's no information what might happen. Will it be replaced with something?  What?  My new HU DL will expire for some categories in November 2022 where as it would have expired in 2029 before.  So it's not quite the same as it was before.

There's an interesting Wiki page on net migration.  Click here.   Interestingly Hungary's net migration is +3 per 1000 population. Between 207-2012, +30,000 people arrived in Hungary.   Compare that to the UK  with +14 and 900,000 people arriving.

Update on driving licences...

HMG has published updated info on gov.uk.  IDP (International Driving Permits) are NOT required by UK citizens in the EU nations.  Typically didn't make that immediately known. Click here to see the list.

As told to me -  if you go to the Kormányablak to change your driving license  from UK to HU, they will only copy it and send it to the Interior Ministry (Belügyminisztérium).  Apparently they verify it's a real DL as there are many fakes around. Only then can they authorise issuance of a new DL assuming no other issues.  The process takes up to 2 weeks and they inform by phone for another appointment.  Just a thought, considering where we are now and Xmas approaching, anyone who wants to swap needs to go within a few days to sort this out.   Note that the medical certificate runs out after 15 days so if they are particularly slow, one might need another medical certificate as it would have expired by the time they replied.

Latest:

British people without residence documents banned from EU travel post-1 Jan 2021 due to COVID19:

No Exemption for UK

Tourist industry will be seriously in danger in Spain and Greece for 2021.  No travel insurance available either due to FCDO statements on non-essential travel.

I am sure this ban is going to raise some serious concerns in the UK.  Might just be a revenge thing and maybe some tit for tat game will happen in the UK.

Summary pages of draft agreement post-Brexit:

Summary Brexit Agreement (34 pages approx)

Thanks for the upload.

Page 23, para 113 > 121 - Healthcare - very interesting

Cynic wrote:

Thanks for the upload.

Page 23, para 113 > 121 - Healthcare - very interesting

I am not sure how to interpret what it says or what the final outcome will be.    Devil in the detail as usual.

What would happen to a UK national is sent by the EU business to work for some time in say, Malaysia? 

Where is the SS paid in that case then?

The EHIC replacement is interesting - would a diabetic from the UK be entitled to obtain insulin on the same basis as a local?

Details...details...

TBH, when I first heard this yesterday, I thought it was too good to be true.  Having slept on it and now read the summary document you linked to, I'm leaning to the opinion that there's been so much negativity about Brexit these past 4 years that it's begun to affect my judgement and in fact, there's no reason why any of that could not be achieved.

I'm not saying how or when, just that it could and perhaps with a bit more positivity may help us all.

Cynic wrote:

TBH, when I first heard this yesterday, I thought it was too good to be true.  Having slept on it and now read the summary document you linked to, I'm leaning to the opinion that there's been so much negativity about Brexit these past 4 years that it's begun to affect my judgement and in fact, there's no reason why any of that could not be achieved.

I'm not saying how or when, just that it could and perhaps with a bit more positivity may help us all.

I dunno, I'm not sure what they've been working on for 4 years. 

Some weird statements in there. 

Take 104 for example, which reads:

104. The airworthiness Annex to the Agreement sets out the conditions for
the UK and EU to recognise each other’s aeronautical products and designs.
For example, minor changes and repairs to aeronautical products and designs
that are approved in the UK will be automatically accepted by the EU.

So far so good but then it continues:

In addition, the Annex foresees the possibility of the EU extending their scope of
automatic recognition of UK aeronautical products and designs once it gains
confidence in the UK’s capability for overseeing design certification.

So this means that the EU will deign to allow UK aero products be design certified when it feels like the UK has evolved to a sufficient level to be trusted.  WTF?  It was trusted before 1st Jan 2021.

What makes them think the UK doesn't know how to certify products seeing as they had a major hand in this process at an EU level and a long history of quality aero product development?

And while I'm here Professional Qualifications - 50 to 52 say nothing much that's useful.  52 is a fudge.

I think to have a truly solid understanding, I'm going to have to read all 1200+ pages.

iness Annex to the Agreement sets out the conditions for
the UK and EU to recognise each other’s aeronautical products and designs.
For example, minor changes and repairs to aeronautical products and designs
that are approved in the UK will be automatically accepted by the EU. [/i]

So far so good but then it continues:

In addition, the Annex foresees the possibility of the EU extending their scope of
automatic recognition of UK aeronautical products and designs once it gains
confidence in the UK’s capability for overseeing design certification.

So this means that the EU will deign to allow UK aero products be design certified when it feels like the UK has evolved to a sufficient level to be trusted.  WTF?  It was trusted before 1st Jan 2021.

MRCA, Eurofighter, Airbus?
It appear the UK was trusted  by its European 'friends' before, but no longer. Along with a lot more, that sort of idiocy pretty much confirms the exit was a good move.