Expat interest in politics in Hungary

EU Citizens who are residents in Hungary can vote in local elections (but not national elections). They should of course do so if they can. As the local governments have a lot of impact on their daily life. I know a local town near were I live that has many DE and AT citizens and they certainly can affect local election results if they vote  -- and they do vote, and vote especially for those willing to translate (competently*) their election pamphlets to German.

Non-EU citizens may not be able to vote in local elections. It depends on bilateral agreements.

Otherwise, politics is a very, very nasty endeavor. I can not stress this enough. I know. From personal experience. My wife was the local mayor and ran for Parliament. What was said about her in campaigns and when she was mayor, was beyond belief disgusting. Some people get really mentally sick when it comes to politics.

* It is Hungary, so not all translators are competent.

I think we already discuss issues of recent and current times in these forums.

It is possible for EU citizens to hold political office in some countries.  Some UK citizens are sometimes mayors of Spanish towns.   We also have German born politicians in the UK parliament.   Not really so unusual.

(side note: BoJo is also a lapsed American and he's PM back there.  Even Churchill was an American).

The most frustrating thing for me is the level of ignorance about corruption stemming from Orban / Fidesz control of the media. Search for Orban + corruption in Hungarian and you get almost nothing except whimsical statements about how Orban is fighting corruption and dreaming about a Hungarian Renaissance. Google in English and the results overflow with corruption investigations and penalties.
Most recently, Hungary chose to pay a 10% flat penalty fee levied for misappropriation of EU funds rather than pursue corrective actions or allow a more thorough audit. That means that Hungarians pay twice -- once to the corrupt Friends of Orban who stole the money, and their own taxes will pay the 500 billion forint fine. (Yes, Hungary voluntarily chose to pay 500 BILLION forints rather than submit to an audit or showing proof of non-corruption).

When asked about politics, I find Hungarians are rather complacent with answers such as:
- Corruption is everywhere, there is nothing we can do about it
- All politicians steal
- We have no alternatives, the others are worse
- You can't believe what foreigners write about Hungarians, they are biased and always disliked us
- The EU is just penalizing us for not accepting migrants

https://hungarytoday.hu/govt-concedes-t … -eu-funds/

For this reason, I stay away from politics because I find them to be every bit as dense and unreasonable as Americans who refute climate change or many who vote for Trump. There are no facts that will sway them.  The only difference for Hungary is that most if not all dissenting articles are blocked or censored in some way so that the information never reaches the passive public's ears.

Vicces1 wrote:

The most frustrating thing for me is the level of ignorance about corruption stemming from Orban / Fidesz control of the media. Search for Orban + corruption in Hungarian and you get almost nothing except whimsical statements about how Orban is fighting corruption and dreaming about a Hungarian Renaissance. Google in English and the results overflow with corruption investigations and penalties.
Most recently, Hungary chose to pay a 10% flat penalty fee levied for misappropriation of EU funds rather than pursue corrective actions or allow a more thorough audit. That means that Hungarians pay twice -- once to the corrupt Friends of Orban who stole the money, and their own taxes will pay the 500 billion forint fine. (Yes, Hungary voluntarily chose to pay 500 BILLION forints rather than submit to an audit or showing proof of non-corruption).

When asked about politics, I find Hungarians are rather complacent with answers such as:
- Corruption is everywhere, there is nothing we can do about it
- All politicians steal
- We have no alternatives, the others are worse
- You can't believe what foreigners write about Hungarians, they are biased and always disliked us
- The EU is just penalizing us for not accepting migrants

https://hungarytoday.hu/govt-concedes-t … -eu-funds/

For this reason, I stay away from politics because I find them to be every bit as dense and unreasonable as Americans who refute climate change or many who vote for Trump. There are no facts that will sway them.  The only difference for Hungary is that most if not all dissenting articles are blocked or censored in some way so that the information never reaches the passive public's ears.

So much to agree with there.   What the EU has done is essentially to agree to a continuation of less transparency.   It's essentially endorsing and financing the OV illiberal state.  The EU should have insisted on transparency rather than go for the cash as there's nothing quite like sunlight as a disinfectant.  As for Google, Facebook etc.,  their search results are based upon who is paying.   

I'm wondering when Radio Free Hungary is going to start up.

Vicces1 wrote:

Most recently, Hungary chose to pay a 10% flat penalty fee levied for misappropriation of EU funds rather than pursue corrective actions or allow a more thorough audit. That means that Hungarians pay twice -- once to the corrupt Friends of Orban who stole the money, and their own taxes will pay the 500 billion forint fine. (Yes, Hungary voluntarily chose to pay 500 BILLION forints rather than submit to an audit or showing proof of non-corruption).

https://hvg.hu/gazdasag/20191112_Tobb_s … z_EUpenzek

Left wing economic portal: The "fine" is a simply the withdrawal of the funds for the questionable projects. The funds are available for other projects though.

Vicces1 wrote:

For this reason, I stay away from politics because I find them to be every bit as dense and unreasonable as Americans who refute climate change or many who vote for Trump.

The problem with people believing unconditionally in climate change is the FACT that they dont understand what they believe in, much like religion.

Humanity-induced global warming is an existing, and artificial phenomenon, which should be combated and minimized. Climate change however is natural, and is used as fearmongering.



We are currently in an ice age, historically speaking. The warming of the climate is part of a natural, multi-million year long cycle. And humanity can do nothing about it, the climate will get warmer.

Rawlee wrote:

....

We are currently in an ice age, historically speaking. The warming of the climate is part of a natural, multi-million year long cycle. And humanity can do nothing about it, the climate will get warmer.

Hmmm....in which basket should we put our eggs?  Really it's very difficult......

On the one hand there's a naive OV apologist running an e-commerce site for handbags and on the other hand there's the UN climate specialists  who apparently know nothing at all.

It's a tough one!

fluffy2560 wrote:

Rawlee wrote:

....

We are currently in an ice age, historically speaking. The warming of the climate is part of a natural, multi-million year long cycle. And humanity can do nothing about it, the climate will get warmer.

Hmmm....in which basket should we put our eggs?  Really it's very difficult......

On the one hand there's a naive OV apologist running an e-commerce site for handbags and on the other hand there's the UN climate specialists  who apparently know nothing at all.

It's a tough one!

I just wrote that global warming in man-made, and then you mock me. You mock me, because I have different values and different worldview than you. And for you, it is a sin that is untolerable. Liberal tyranny is coming...and these are the people who value freedom of thought.

You do know that the "climate catastrope" is just fearmongering, and designed to radicalize simple minded people? Because the real problem is the extinction of bees. And not a single ecologist, left wing activist or politician care about it. But unlike climate change, the extinction of bees can kill off humanity.

Rawlee wrote:

....
I just wrote that global warming in man-made, and then you mock me. You mock me, because I have different values and different worldview than you. And for you, it is a sin that is untolerable. Liberal tyranny is coming...and these are the people who value freedom of thought.

Well, duh....and your point is?

If you believe in democracy (do you?) opposing view deserves to be  challenged.   Just because I don't share your views does not make me a tyrant.  And besides, liberal tyranny is an oxymoron.   With illiberal fascism, open debate would not take place.  Like I said naive. 

Apart from being TLDR, you actually said at the end it was part of a natural cycle and therefore that's not man-made.  So are you agreeing then or not?

Rawlee wrote:

....
You do know that the "climate catastrope" is just fearmongering, and designed to radicalize simple minded people? Because the real problem is the extinction of bees. And not a single ecologist, left wing activist or politician care about it. But unlike climate change, the extinction of bees can kill off humanity.

Ok, so this is a a straw man argument.  One cannot redirect or refute climate change by introducing or diverting using bees in the discussion.    To put together a reasoned discussion, you need to talk about if climate change is real or not and then it should move on to the effects of climate change as evidenced by changes in the bee population.  So, are you agreeing or not that climate change is real?

But while I'm here, I happen to know something about bees as my dear old Dad was apiarist (bee keeper).  Back when he was lending out his hives to farmers, the issue became verroa a tiny parasitic mite which introduced viruses into the bee.   The "medicine" for it is now I believe ineffective.  For sure bees do not like climate change but it depends where they come from.  Some bees are invasive species now in Europe - South American angry bees for example. Some bees are immune to the verroa pest.   You're probably talking about CCD (Colony Collapse Disorder) which is linked to types of pesticides.   That's nothing to do with climate change.

It seems Rawlee has provided direct evidence for my own statements.

Vicces1 wrote:

It seems Rawlee has provided direct evidence for my own statements.

Yup, that's entirely true. 

Usually younger people are left leaning over the injustices in the world, not right wing apologists.   

The descriptor  "illiberal" would not allow all views and contributions so the naive contributor would seek to stop all dissent and discussion so there would be no forum for putting forward an alternative.       There's also the  logical fallacies put forward.

"A young man who isn’t a socialist hasn’t got a heart; an old man who is a socialist hasn’t got a head".

Rawlee wrote:

Because the real problem is the extinction of bees. And not a single ecologist ... snip... care about it.

As someone who has two degrees in Ecology, this has got to be one of the most ignorant comments I have ever seen. Concerns about declining bees has been a topic of concern for a long time among Ecologists. As this decade old article shows:

https://www.researchgate.net/publicatio … ommunities

My full reply moved to Absolutely Anything Else. Topic #4743

This TV report from ZDF covers how EU funds are (mis-)spent. 

Hungary runs from about time 07.20 to 17.10.   It's in German.   

ZDF Report on EU funds

Nothing really we haven't heard before but it made the news - see Hungarian Times.

I wonder how the EU will combat this obvious corruption.
We mentioned elsewhere that Hungary just paid a fine of 500 billion forints rather than open its books to the EU auditors.  For me, that's like passing GO in Monopoly and landing on Property Tax, then just handing over the $200. No need to look into finances, we already know this is the less expensive option!
With Brexit, British contributory funds are out, and then with the addition of some poorer countries, and finally the potential exit of Fidesz from the EPP.... There is no doubt in my mind that the average Hungarian will suffer and Fidesz will scapegoat the EU....

Vicces1 wrote:

...
With Brexit, British contributory funds are out, and then with the addition of some poorer countries, and finally the potential exit of Fidesz from the EPP.... There is no doubt in my mind that the average Hungarian will suffer and Fidesz will scapegoat the EU....

According to Mrs Fluffy, OV is working on the gypsies as the next target.  These are plays to the domestic older voter who fears everything and wants to timewarp to some place where nothing will change whatsoever.   

There's some sort of petition going around on FB (possibly fake) to have gypsies from one particular village deported somewhere.  Doesn't say where but this is the kind of behaviour history has seen before and that apparently no-one in "educated" Hungary has any vague knowledge of or chooses to ignore.  Well, at the risk of Godwin (and others), "Befehl ist befehl".

Interesting test one might find worth experimenting.  Ask anyone say, over 50, if they know Stalin was in league with Hitler in the early WW2 period (Molotov-von Ribbentrop pact).  Hardly anyone I know, educated in HU during the communist period seems to know that.

O1G
(Always learning new things here!)

Vicces1 wrote:

O1G
(Always learning new things here!)

Yup, I know that one!

Political News...

Hungary no longer a democracy: report NGO describes ‘a stunning democratic breakdown.’

fluffy2560 wrote:

Hungary no longer a democracy

What a surprise. Not.

Color me purple..... Because that was my opinion years ago... The government just tried to keep it hidden in their rhetoric. But all the signals were there. To anyone paying attention..... As in declaring the desire for an illiberal (i.e. not free) state (so cryptic.... who would have thought what the government was heading toward...)

Interesting the government's official statement quoted in the above article did not actually deny it. They just played the old redirection gambit....  And in Hungary that gambit is: blame Soros.... Signs......  That  over warn excuse is so old it has arthritis.... Don't they know.... Have they not been paying attention? That the new excuse is to blame the Chinese? 

klsallee wrote:

fluffy2560 wrote:

Hungary no longer a democracy

What a surprise. Not.

Color me purple..... Because that was my opinion years ago... The government just tried to keep it hidden in their rhetoric. But all the signals were there. To anyone paying attention..... As in declaring the desire for an illiberal (i.e. not free) state (so cryptic.... who would have thought what the government was heading toward...)

Interesting the government's official statement quoted in the above article did not actually deny it. They just played the old redirection gambit....  And in Hungary that gambit is: blame Soros.... Signs......  That  over warn excuse is so old it has arthritis.... Don't they know.... Have they not been paying attention? That the new excuse is to blame the Chinese? 

I agree with all that.  The NGO's report is a snapshot of the situation and the rate of change.  No news there but I expect it has nothing about COVID19 - a crisis to exploit.

Regarding Soros, some people here believe it because it's rammed down their throats by the state media and they have no access to foreign media or capabilities to  analyse.   A bag of potatoes is enough to sway their opinion.

I don't think the Chinese will be the next target - the government wants their money and allies for when they break away from the EU and become re-satellited to Russia.   The EU has already proved itself incapable of taking on states ignoring the  EU norms of democracies.   

On the ground, it could be just foreigners or gypsies or which group? Everyone else has been used.  COVID19 is not enough as it is not readily identifiable for the long term.  I cannot think who might be cast in role of the villain next.  I don't want to say Jews as there are hardly any left.  And no Muslims.  Atheists? Agnostics?

Update:

The enemies are the neighbours:

Orban’s ‘Greater Hungary’ Map Creates Waves in Neighbourhood

Came across this piece about Turkmenistan:

Last Week Tonight with John Oliver

Skip to  2:55 and John Oliver includes O1G/OV in a list of dictators (bottom right picture) at 3:03 along with Putin and Kim Jong-Un.  The piece comes from about August 2019 and therefore the pre-COVID19 rule by decree.

Skip to  2:55 and John Oliver includes O1G/OV in a list of dictators (bottom right picture) at 3:03 along with Putin and Kim Jong-Un.  The piece comes from about August 2019 and therefore the pre-COVID19 rule by decree.

Personally I think this just feeds O1G's ego, he loves what he can get away with!

Vicces1 wrote:

fluffy2560 wrote:

Skip to  2:55 and John Oliver includes O1G/OV in a list of dictators (bottom right picture) at 3:03 along with Putin and Kim Jong-Un.  The piece comes from about August 2019 and therefore the pre-COVID19 rule by decree.

Personally I think this just feeds O1G's ego, he loves what he can get away with!

Oh sure, at best he'd love it and at worst he wouldn't care.

But it did make me wonder if John Oliver had some inside track on O1G.  I did notice the EU flag in the background.  The one that shows stars, not the toothless mouths of the EU to hold mutant EU states accountable.   Apparently Putin's popularity is slipping, Trump's going too and if they lose their elections (Putin, never of course),  then maybe we'll be back on track to "rational" world again.

Lots of action on Hungary today:

'Critics silenced' in social media arrests as EU debates Orban's powers

EU top court says Hungary transit zones amount to illegal detention

Lots of action...but predictable action.
We knew the purpose of these Machiavellian tactics when the "Emergency Powers" were passed.  And a neutered EU has yet to take any significant action.

Vicces1 wrote:

Lots of action...but predictable action.
We knew the purpose of these Machiavellian tactics when the "Emergency Powers" were passed.  And a neutered EU has yet to take any significant action.

Not the EU but the ECJ has taken action in the second case - against the treatment of the refugees in the transit zone.   They have to house them and pay for them on HU soil.   The article says the issue is bounced back to the Szeged court and that must order the government.  But what kind of support will be the outcome?

O1G says powers will be revoked:

Viktor Orban and Hungarian government poised to give up unrestrained powers

Hungary will reject ECJ ruling:

Hungary will reject ECJ ruling


Apparently over 104 pieces of legislation were passed during the rule by decree period.

Oops, I seem to have posted the political opinion in the wrong place... Hang on while I move it!

Let's try this... Orban said he will give up his emergency powers by the end of May. Many on the Fidesz side are using it as an example of how great their leader is, while those opposed note that Orban rammed through his Chinese deal and many other actions by decree and he still has his absolute majority in Parliament. He's hardly being magnanimous. It is simply a way of brushing off claims of illiberal democracy at a time when the European budgets are being drawn up and fiscal hawks in Germany and elsewhere do not want to see Hungary rewarded for defiant, illiberal behavior.  Now they can hold this up as a shining example of how "democratic" they are.

Dang, 100+ legislative items?!  You can't even keep up with the most corrupt ones at that rate.
It's like trying to fact check Trump's lies -- they happen faster than you can correct!

Vicces1 wrote:

Oops, I seem to have posted the political opinion in the wrong place... Hang on while I move it!

Let's try this... Orban said he will give up his emergency powers by the end of May. Many on the Fidesz side are using it as an example of how great their leader is, while those opposed note that Orban rammed through his Chinese deal and many other actions by decree and he still has his absolute majority in Parliament. He's hardly being magnanimous. It is simply a way of brushing off claims of illiberal democracy at a time when the European budgets are being drawn up and fiscal hawks in Germany and elsewhere do not want to see Hungary rewarded for defiant, illiberal behavior.  Now they can hold this up as a shining example of how "democratic" they are.

Dang, 100+ legislative items?!  You can't even keep up with the most corrupt ones at that rate.
It's like trying to fact check Trump's lies -- they happen faster than you can correct!

I posted at AAE thread but not to worry.

BTW, going off topic a bit, as of this morning, Trump now comes with a Twitter warning to fact check.  Interestingly he sees the risk there - he'll lose contact with his base.  He's even threatened Twitter (a private company) over what he sees as a violation of free speech.   

Interesting thing is that Trump is implying that  the Twitter "service" is like a utility that needs regulation so Trump can use it to spout his nonsense.  So he wants freedom in a regulated service.  Errr....what?

BTW, he pulled a classic one hijacking the intern's death at one of his media enemies former political office saying "he wants to get to the bottom of it" even ignoring the victim's parents plea to leave it alone.   

In the past Trump could be sued for libel in my own country - the fact that his spewing of misinformation can be seen in London means his targets could sue him in the UK.   But the law changed in the USA: Obama approves US 'libel tourist' laws.  That means Trump can continue unhindered.  Seemed like a good idea to pass that law at the time.

Maybe 01G needs a Twitter fact check as well.

Vicces1 wrote:

Oops, I seem to have posted the political opinion in the wrong place... Hang on while I move it!

Let's try this... Orban said he will give up his emergency powers by the end of May. Many on the Fidesz side are using it as an example of how great their leader is, while those opposed note that Orban rammed through his Chinese deal and many other actions by decree and he still has his absolute majority in Parliament. He's hardly being magnanimous. It is simply a way of brushing off claims of illiberal democracy at a time when the European budgets are being drawn up and fiscal hawks in Germany and elsewhere do not want to see Hungary rewarded for defiant, illiberal behavior.  Now they can hold this up as a shining example of how "democratic" they are.

Everything went out of sync.....here's what I said at AAE.....

EU is based upon shared values which HU signed up to as a member of the EU.   If HU doesn't agree with it, it can leave. Have a referendum and get out of the EU.   Of course O1G wants the EU money and leaving would be an unpopular move.   So he brings it to the brink with an unwasted crisis, passes legislation on his whim and he can afford to give it up to try and pre-empt any EU budget reduction.  It's very obvious what he and his cronies are up to.   Poland is in about the same kind position or even worse.   Some MEPs want to sanction the Poles.  Short step to sanctioning HU. 

HU signed up to the aims of the charter. You can see the check list here on the 6 areas European Charter of Fundamental Rights. For those that want it upfront - see if there's a comprehensive tick against everyone of these rights in HU (not superficial ticks or propaganda but real rights):

1. Respect for human dignity
Human dignity is inviolable. Nobody may be hurt physically or mentally.

Everyone has the right to life. Nobody may be condemned to death or executed. Torture and degrading punishment are forbidden. Slavery and forced labour are forbidden. Trafficking in human beings is forbidden.

2. Freedom
Everyone has the right to be free and secure. Home, family and personal communications must be respected. Everyone has the right to marry and found a family. Personal data may be protected and kept secret. Freedom of religion, freedom of thought, freedom of speech and freedom of assembly belong to all. Everyone has the right to education, work, to run a business and own property. Refugees have the right to apply for asylum and may not be deported to a dangerous country.

3. Equality
Everyone is equal before the law. All discrimination is forbidden. Different cultures, religions and languages are respected. Men and women must be equal in all areas and must receive the same pay for the same work. Children have the right to protection and the necessary care. They have the right to express their opinions. The child’s best interest must always be considered. Old people have the right to a life of dignity and independence. People with disabilities have the right to take part in activities that help them to integrate into society and live independently.

4. Solidarity
Workers have the right to receive information and be heard by employers. Workers, employers and the organisations representing them may negotiate and make agreements. If necessary, workers have the right to strike. Everyone has the right to free labour exchange services. Employees may not be dismissed without a just reason. Every employee has the right to healthy, safe and human working conditions and terms of employment.

Maximum working hours are limited:there must be enough time for rest every day and every week. Employees receive pay for holidays as well. Child labour may not be used. Young people must have safe working conditions. Family life is protected and nobody may be dismissed because of the birth of a baby. Everyone living in the Union legally has the right to social assistance. Everyone has the right to preventive health care and medical care. Social benefits and health services are always determined by national laws. Consumer protection is provided for consumers. Efforts must be made to protect the environment.

5. Citizens’ rights
The citizens have the right to vote in the elections to the European Parliament. Union citizens may vote in municipal elections in the country they live in and stand as a candidate in local elections. Every EU citizen has the right to good, impartial and fair administration and have their affairs handled within a reasonable period of time. Everyone has the right of access to the documents of all EU institutions and agencies. Every EU citizen and all people and organisations in the member states have the right to petition the European Parliament. Also, they have the right to refer to the Ombudsman. Every EU citizen has the right to live and move freely within the territory of the EU member states. Every EU citizen is entitled to protection by the diplomatic missions or consular authorities of any member state.

6. Justice
Every EU citizen has the right to effective legal remedies and the right to be heard before an impartial court of law. Every defendant must be held innocent unless legally proven guilty. Everyone charged with a crime has the right to legal defence. No punishment may be more severe than prescribed by law. No one may be tried and punished for the same crime twice.

I always think of Trump as a narcissist petulant child. I have no idea why and credible organization is supporting or denying claims he has made, such as hydrochloroquine treatments, as he is not a scientist in any way, shape, or form. Do they really need to test if injecting disinfectant or shoving a light beam up someone's arse is an effective treatment or couldn't we simply stay with scientific means of exploring possible remedies?

In regards to Twitter, as it is a private company, it really is not in any danger from Trump, and I cannot imagine no matter how much they fact check him, that it will matter much -- his base supports him no matter what and his tweets are distributed by the media ten times more than any twitter following.
I"ve always thought the best way to handle Trump is simply to stop reporting on him, stop reporting anything he has to say, block his twitter, and simply ignore him otherwise. He'd go positively unhinged not to be the center of attention.

Vicces1 wrote:

I always think of Trump as a narcissist petulant child. I have no idea why and credible organization is supporting or denying claims he has made, such as hydrochloroquine treatments, as he is not a scientist in any way, shape, or form. Do they really need to test if injecting disinfectant or shoving a light beam up someone's arse is an effective treatment or couldn't we simply stay with scientific means of exploring possible remedies?

In regards to Twitter, as it is a private company, it really is not in any danger from Trump, and I cannot imagine no matter how much they fact check him, that it will matter much -- his base supports him no matter what and his tweets are distributed by the media ten times more than any twitter following.
I"ve always thought the best way to handle Trump is simply to stop reporting on him, stop reporting anything he has to say, block his twitter, and simply ignore him otherwise. He'd go positively unhinged not to be the center of attention.

Haha, great post!

Yes, you are right, he'll go more nuts if he cannot post on Twitter.  I can imagine the steam coming out of his ears cleaning him out of COVID19.  I think Trump is already in meltdown over The Washington Post (owned by Jeff Bezos).

I don't know about shining a light too hard up Donald Trump's backside.  We might find a small baby looking alien operating a DT outer body suit.  I've seen the documentary Men in Black. I know what happens.

BTW - Slightly different subject.... the Forint!
1 United States Dollar equals 318.37 Hungarian Forint
1 Euro equals 350.02 Hungarian Forint
1 Pound sterling equals 390.48 Hungarian Forint

Taken from Google today.....

I read an article that stated that Hungarian will try to keep the forint in a range from 320-350 Fts / dollar (or so) for the next 3 years.  A considerable drop in value from 2016 when it was approx 220 Fts/USD.

Of course this makes prices only slightly higher within Hungary for domestic consideration, makes manufacturing and labor pricing for international companies to exploit Hungarian resources, but also makes it more expensive for anything imported into Hungary...

Any thoughts on this new valuation range and its intentions? Viability?

Vicces1 wrote:

BTW - Slightly different subject.... the Forint!
1 United States Dollar equals 318.37 Hungarian Forint
1 Euro equals 350.02 Hungarian Forint
1 Pound sterling equals 390.48 Hungarian Forint

Taken from Google today.....

I read an article that stated that Hungarian will try to keep the forint in a range from 320-350 Fts / dollar (or so) for the next 3 years.  A considerable drop in value from 2016 when it was approx 220 Fts/USD.

Of course this makes prices only slightly higher within Hungary for domestic consideration, makes manufacturing and labor pricing for international companies to exploit Hungarian resources, but also makes it more expensive for anything imported into Hungary...

Any thoughts on this new valuation range and its intentions? Viability?

One of those things - essentially a devaluation.  But it's only a number.  They can issue a new HUF if they want to knock off some zeros.

There's no doubt it's going to be a mix of political and economic drivers as things gear up sometime for an election.  Difficult balance in trying times.

Economy could seem grow at the expense of inflation and more expensive imports (Hungary isn't North Korea - yet) apart from oil.   I could see unemployment increasing in import dependent businesses - vehicles, supermarkets etc.

Maybe the real issue is going to be the Euro stimulus package.  Hungary is going to be a net recipient but it'll be painful elsewhere for the net givers. As a net recipient,  it's still about loans rather than grants so there will be payback.   Hopefully details of how the stimulus package will be spent will become more public. 

Debt as a percentage of GDP is eventually going to mean cut backs in public services as part of a streamlining the public sector and possibly tax rises.

I might really speculate and say VAT could possibly go to 30% - mainly to control imports and therefore outflows but that debt is going to really increase pressure across the board.

Idle speculation from an amateur economist.

p.s. More fun is DT's idea overnight to issue an executive order against social media.  That's going to be interesting.  Wonder what he thinks he can get away with.  Very entertaining from a distance.

I agree that O1G will be looking to devalue to keep the Hungarian engine going, i.e. by keeping labor cheap. If he loses the economic argument, he will lose his base.  He'll be very willing to let average Hungarians suffer at home, while he uses his corrupt Euros and Swiss Francs elsewhere.

So I read about the DT tweets regarding social media.
Impeached Trump has never been someone who understands the consequences of his actions -- he's just been allowed to get away with a tremendous amount without liability.  But this is a case of "be careful what you wish for..." The presumption is that media companies such as Twitter are protected by the 1st Amendment to the Constitution.
From one article describing Impeached Trump's ramblings: The draft executive order that Mr. Trump may sign as soon as Thursday would seek to strip liability protection in certain cases for companies like Twitter, Google and Facebook for the content on their sites, meaning they could face legal jeopardy if they allowed false and defamatory posts. Without a liability shield, they presumably would have to be more aggressive about policing messages that press the boundaries — like the president’s.

Not only that, but.... Plenty of lawyers quickly said on Thursday that he was claiming power to do something he does not have by essentially revising the interpretation of Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act, the main law passed by Congress in 1996 to lay out the rules of the road for online media.

So far from giving the President a pass on his tweets, they would actually have to start regulating them much more.  And let's face it, Trump wants the exposure, he loves being the center of attention for good or bad.  The thing is, his base is not known for their love of facts or adherence to logic. The warnings have virtually zero impact. This is Trump simply being a bully when he doesn't get his own way and he'll back down when he realizes his proposed "cure" will take away from his narcissistic popularity hallucinations.

As certain as those paragraphs sound, let's remember that the Senate has yet to leash this mongrel, and the Supreme Court is in a 5-4 majority with Republican picks, several of which are highly political and...ahem...injudicious appointments.  Could some legal interpretation fall out that makes something of a Frankenstein's monster of this legislation? Of course!  But probably not before the next election...

Just found this:
BERLIN (Reuters) - If U.S. President Donald Trump goes ahead with his threat to close Twitter, the micro-blogging site can always relocate to Germany.

After Trump threatened to shut down Twitter for advising its users to fact-check his tweets, a senior German official suggested in a light-hearted tweet that the California-based company would be better off in Europe.

“This is an invitation to move to Germany!” Thomas Jarzombek, Berlin’s point person for the startup economy, tweeted on Thursday.

Vicces1 wrote:

....Not only that, but.... Plenty of lawyers quickly said on Thursday that he was claiming power to do something he does not have by essentially revising the interpretation of Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act, the main law passed by Congress in 1996 to lay out the rules of the road for online media.

So far from giving the President a pass on his tweets, they would actually have to start regulating them much more.  And let's face it, Trump wants the exposure, he loves being the center of attention for good or bad.  The thing is, his base is not known for their love of facts or adherence to logic. The warnings have virtually zero impact. This is Trump simply being a bully when he doesn't get his own way and he'll back down when he realizes his proposed "cure" will take away from his narcissistic popularity hallucinations.

As certain as those paragraphs sound, let's remember that the Senate has yet to leash this mongrel, and the Supreme Court is in a 5-4 majority with Republican picks, several of which are highly political and...ahem...injudicious appointments.  Could some legal interpretation fall out that makes something of a Frankenstein's monster of this legislation? Of course!  But probably not before the next election...

Overnight this has escalated with Trump actually signing an executive order.   It's a very interesting situation. He's actually attacking himself - his and Twitter's right to free speech.   This will also connects up with Bezos and the Washington Post.

There's a different take here of course in Hungary but some parallels - 01G has simply strong armed the media through his cronies and he's taken over the media regulators.  The COVID19 laws allowed him to jail journalists for spreading "misinformation". Only a short step for journalists to be jailed for providing any transparency.   

I guess taking down Twitter might play to the alt-right but I doubt even Trump has the capacity to take down the "free press" in the USA by buying them out via his friends.  He could of course just get his cronies to acquire a media outfit but he doesn't have the actual muscle to seriously impact it.

Not knowing their legal system, I'm speculating by expecting DT's executive order to be stopped by a federal judge within about 5 minutes of the working day starting on the East Coast.

fluffy2560 wrote:

Vicces1 wrote:

....Not only that, but.... Plenty of lawyers quickly said on Thursday that he was claiming power to do something he does not have by essentially revising the interpretation of Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act, the main law passed by Congress in 1996 to lay out the rules of the road for online media.

So far from giving the President a pass on his tweets, they would actually have to start regulating them much more.  And let's face it, Trump wants the exposure, he loves being the center of attention for good or bad.  The thing is, his base is not known for their love of facts or adherence to logic. The warnings have virtually zero impact. This is Trump simply being a bully when he doesn't get his own way and he'll back down when he realizes his proposed "cure" will take away from his narcissistic popularity hallucinations.

As certain as those paragraphs sound, let's remember that the Senate has yet to leash this mongrel, and the Supreme Court is in a 5-4 majority with Republican picks, several of which are highly political and...ahem...injudicious appointments.  Could some legal interpretation fall out that makes something of a Frankenstein's monster of this legislation? Of course!  But probably not before the next election...

Overnight this has escalated with Trump actually signing an executive order.   It's a very interesting situation. He's actually attacking on himself - his and Twitter's right to free speech.   This will also connects up with Bezos and the Washington Post.

There's a different take here of course in Hungary but some parallels - 01G has simply strong armed the media through his cronies and he's taken over the media regulators.  The COVID19 laws allowed him to jail journalists for spreading "misinformation". Only a short step for journalists to be jailed for providing any transparency.   

I guess taking down Twitter might play to the alt-right but I doubt even Trump has the capacity to take down the "free press" in the USA by buying them out via his friends.  He could of course just get his cronies to acquire a media outfit but he doesn't have the actual muscle to seriously impact it.

Not knowing their legal system, I'm speculating by expecting DT's executive order to be stopped by a federal judge within about 5 minutes of the working day starting on the East Coast.

From.....Protests in Hungary

Marilyn Tassy wrote:

fluffy2560 wrote:

Hungary: Demonstration Alert for 7 June protest in Budapest

The US Embassy in the capital Budapest has issued a Demonstration Alert for an anti-racism protest expected in the city on 7 June 2020.

Participants will gather at Szabadsag Square in District V from 12:00 – 13:00 local time (10:00 – 11:00 GMT). Traffic disruptions, counter-protests and a heightened security presence are possible in the vicinity of the protest.

Yes, I get those alerts from the embassy.
I wonder if you could be deported if you attended any of these events?
Those rioters in the US are going to be in for a shock when the cops come a knockin'.
They are tracking people through their phones and with facial recognition.
Not my thing to protest, so far there are not many protests that interest me.
Maybe if they held one about unfair banking systems, chemtrail spraying or even 5 G, that may get my interest but probably not.
Old people have no business taking a chance of a mob gone wild on the sts.
Noticed something on the news about a senior aged man in the US getting knocked down by the police and his ear bleeding.
Well that's terrible but at his age he should know he isn't up to a fight or a riot.
Some people were bringing their children to protest then crying about tear gas in their eyes.
My SIL. the one married to my youngest sibling is very upset about this stuff in Ca. She is fighting online with her friends who are not taking it seriously.
2 of her 3 sons are half black from her first husband. She feels people do not fully understand how racist the world is.
Another Vegas friend posted photos of boarded up strip malls near their home in Vegas.
World gone crazy, I am glad to be in Hungary it is much more sane here right now no matter what the media is telling us about protests in the city.

Interesting perspective....what did you mean by "unfair banking systems"?   Chemtrails and 5G, meh, fake nooze.....

Saw that guy getting knocked over.  I think what did it for me is they pushed him, then said he stumbled, then the other guy moved the pusher on.  You could hear the crack of his head vs concrete. Then the inured guy was laying on the ground, clearly lost consciousness and dropped his phone.   

This wouldn't happen in other places and not in my country.  They would have moved him on politely.  That's because we have policing by consent.

You should see the one with the two guys getting tasered after getting stuck in traffic.   Utter overreaction. They weren't doing anything.

Mrs Fluffy and I were at one of the HU protests. I thought it was fair to middling in attendance numbers.  Mrs Fluffy wanted to go and we took one of the kids along.   I was quite bored. I think I'd wait for the TV highlights.  In no way was it threatening and felt quite civilised.

While I'm here, maybe  I should have a minor rant....

While we are here, I've been looking at something called the Overton window.  The USA is in that situation now. It's creating circumstances where bad behaviour by the authorities is tolerated.  This is how DT operates. He creates the new normal - it's like really terrible behaviour excuses fuzzy bad behaviour around the current norm and shifts it into acceptability.   

I'm not obviously an American but even us lot over here feel we have a dog in the race because the historic connections with the USA and stability there means stability elsewhere.  Yesterday DT went even more bonkers and claimed George Floyd was looking down happy at the employment statistics.  This is just insane - even for him - to hijack the guy's death. WTF? Anyone supporting him is  just buying into his lunacy.  Press Herald in Maine had quite an interesting and well written editorial.

Minor rant over!