The obvious fix to the tourism problem (to me)

Disagree.

There is another choice. Open up and accept that you can not control this virus. It was a poorly conceived decision to lockdown and try for a zero infection rate. The original idea of a shutdown was a short period to "flatten the curve" in order to allow time for the medical facilities to come up to speed to handle increased case loads.  This was reasonable, but then the goal posts shifted to a zero infection policy.

This problem right now is entirely the result of political decisions that placed one set of values, those of the reasonably wealthy and elite who were mostly afraid of the effects of catching the virus, against the values of the poor who need to work every day to feed their families, many of whom depend on international tourism. 

Every option is on the table if we have the political will to implement it. This virus is a new feature of the landscape that simply must be accepted, the same we accept that accidents happen driving cars.  Living means accepting a risk of death. The problems with tourism today are a direct result of the refusal of a select group to accept the realities of the world we now inhabit.  People try and hide these value choices behind "science", but this was never a scientific decision. It has always been a value choice.

Long stay or short stay tourists are not the issue. The fundamental problem is the zero infection rate policy. That was never a realistic position to begin with. It requires too much sacrifice from too many people for too little value.  Concentrate on treatment, increasing medical facilities, and a solid prevention campaign and mitigation strategies. Then let's open up for everyone and get back to normal as quickly as possible.  This is the only long term, sensible option, and no more lockdowns need occur.

You can not save human lives by destroying that which makes us human.

Of course I disagree, in two different ways, on two different levels. 

To a limited degree it does work to trade lives for economic benefit, but I don't think a country or government can rush to set that trade-off point.  You can't crash the economy to save 100 or even 1000 lives, and at some point you need to work out an awkward calculation of what a life really is worth. 

People saying that road deaths cause a lot more impact are missing the point, I think.  If so, and that certainly is true, then those deaths need to be addressed separately.  It doesn't connect.  Thailand has implemented traffic laws, and checkpoint stops, and helmet laws.  It's a problem that traveling by motorcycle is a lot more dangerous, and that people drive inconsistently, both problems that aren't easy to resolve.

The calculation of how many would die, or should be allowed to, is problematic due to the natural exponential growth rate of the untreated virus spread.  The US has "flattened" their curve at averaging 1000 deaths a day only because some measures are still in place, people wearing masks (some), and many others still self-isolating.

All that misses a critical second point:  there is potential value in the status of being a country without a pandemic going on.  It only amounts to an economic value, beyond being a boon to peace of mind and such, if an open domestic economy is a positive factor, and it already is, and if there is a way to capitalize on it from a new form of financial benefit, which isn't happening.  The US is partially closed, and will remain so as long as it's a risk to citizens to mix freely with others.  That causes ongoing economic impact, which isn't occurring here.  It can be hard to appreciate  negative conditions like that, an impact that isn't happening.

That last point about "turning a profit" from the country being Covid-free is something else again.  It's an opportunity.  To put this in perspective, the AARP, American Association for Retired Persons (https://www.aarp.org/) has at least 38 million members now, all of whom are at elevated risk of dying this year, just related to doing things like visiting a grocery store in the US.  It wouldn't work to try to get those people to visit Thailand for 3 or 4 weeks, because the only safe way to have foreigners visit involves a two week quarantine.  Testing takes time to identify the virus; there is a period after someone has been infected prior to developing enough of the virus and antibodies in their body to be detectable, so it's not safe to test visitors and let them travel freely.  With both testing and quarantine it is.  Adding an extra few hundred thousand long-stay visitors, or a million, could add back in what Thailand lost in tourism revenue.

To be clear when people say that Thailand is not considering the economic impact of isolation they are referring to impact in tourism related areas.  I live and work in Bangkok and nothing looks out of the ordinary to me, besides people wearing masks.  If I go to a tourism-themed mall, and I have, that's completely not the case, and resort areas like Pattaya and Phuket are struggling, to say the least.  They need visitors back to maintain even a reduced level of a normal economy.  This would impact other places to; the degree of that would vary based on how much visitors typically contribute.  Even indirect effects would definitely occur.  For example, there was a lot of inexpensive fruit in the grocery stores back in March and April because losing tourists disrupted normal sales.  Some of that kind of thing could correct itself, based on shifting export patterns.

There is no "getting back to normal" through re-introducing a pandemic to Thailand.  It's not just that a few thousand people would die; the impact of the resolution measures would have a much greater effect.  It wouldn't be possible to convince individuals and government leaders to just let nature take its course, to naturally cull some minor percentage of the population, while people move freely and resume their normal lives.  Thais won't do that. 

Thailand needs to take advantage of an opportunity they have developed, at best before a vaccine reduces the risk in other places sometime next year (maybe).  Visitors staying for 3 months to one year could re-introduce a lot of foreign spending into the Thai economy.  It would be possible to offset risk and steer that visitor traffic in different ways.  The government just needs to take a broader view of where things stand and get on with working on the details.

Rather than contrasting the US experience, which now involves 6 million known cases, and around 190,000 known deaths, it might work better to consider another country closer to Thailand in context.  Malaysia has nearly 10,000 confirmed cases, and 128 attributed deaths.  Determining real mortality rates are problematic, because both the number of real total cases and the number of properly attributed deaths are typically not regarded as accurate, but it works as a start.  Their stats:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps … 7b48e9ecf6

Malaysia has recently opened up the country to encouraging free domestic tourism (per input from a friend there; it's not as if I follow Malaysian media).  Thailand took this step 3 months ago.  Daily official cases averaged just over 10 there per day throughout August, a very contained virus spread.  Officially they've only had 3 deaths from corona in August, but again that stat can be adjusted in different ways, depending on government policy and how medical conventions go.  My friend is not traveling freely, and hasn't resumed normal social contact.  He is no longer working from home, as of over a month ago.

It should be clear enough where this is headed; Thais will not resume normal domestic travel if it involves a slight chance of the elderly family members losing their lives.  The counter-response is obvious enough:  using the roads already poses a real risk.  We've faced down that risk and have traveled by car on outings at least 20 times, an have yet to experience any sort of accident. 

But it's about perception anyway, not about the kind of risk read off an actuarial table, when someone is setting an insurance policy rate.  If there were only 10 new corona cases per day in Thailand, as Malaysia experiences, that would have an impact, and it's very difficult to maintain that stable, low level of spread.  My friend avoiding social contact (still) is one reason why that level stays so low.

The Thai government announced the latest plan, which essentially is what I was saying they should do, a long-stay visitor plan with a mandatory test prior to flight and a two week quarantine period.  This shows some early planning:

https://mobile.twitter.com/RichardBarro … 7509899264

It's not ideal, but a good working start.  They plan to allow for 1200 visas a month initially, not very many.  They require health insurance covering at least $100,000 (US), and require proof of residence arrangement.  The biggest glitch so far is plans to offer this only to the most risk-free countries related to corona virus / pandemic exposure.  Interpreted in a conventional way that would eliminate most of the countries that people would usually visit from, including the US and almost all of Europe.  It's an early draft plan though; it will keep changing.

the same story, from a different source:  https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30394581

The solution that was offered by the government appears to be 100% directed at visitors with big bank accounts. Sounds great but the reality is they will be spending all their money at high end resorts and very little of that $$ will reach the pockets of the average Thai. I understand that this is a starting point but the reality is the mom and pop store, tour business or the avert person will not benefit from this decision.

There is no right or wrong answer here.  This is new to all of us, but I am a firm believer in “balance”.  Every country has to find it as it relates to this virus.  Simply put it’s not a zero case tolerance and it’s not back to normal either for now.  This extended stay is a move in the right direction and have no doubt a vaccine is coming in the near future.

Other countries such as Indonesia, particularly Bali, are facing exactly the same problems. The country was going to be opened up to foreign tourists in September but now this has been extended at least until the end of this year and who know, it could be extended further. We just need to wait and see.

In Bali, the local tourism industry had started to pick up with lots of people traveling to Bali and many attractions already opened. However, with this came a surge in covid cases so that now Bali is struggling to deal with it. 

Clearly thousands of local business have suffered or gone out of business. The problem here is that so many people are very lax about wearing masks and washing hands etc. People are eating in restaurants naturally without mask. People in my own city go cycling on weekends without masks and gather at restaurants or coffee shops so it's no wonder that covid is not getting better.

Personally I think a lot of the fault rests with local tourists who are perhaps less stringent with their precautions. Businesses should be opened up in my opinion, but people just need to be more careful.

The latest update to planning reported by the Bangkok Post is really unclear; it either says that people could do the quarantine in their home country instead (which doesn't work), or that they need to do two quarantine steps, in both countries, which makes even less sense.  I think Thailand is going to be sorting this out for awhile. 

The initial plan sounded good for getting things started, even though a focus on only admitting the wealthiest visitors isn't going to help in a few different ways.  Thailand really needs to get a first set of 1200 visitors processed through in order to see which parts work and which don't, then make adjustments.  It would be easy to keep rolling out revised planning every two weeks for the rest of the year, and that definitely won't help.

Like anything in business , your selling a product or service.

At the moment that product really stinks.   I wouldn’t know of any “tourist” that would be looking forward to a holiday under these conditions.    The only noise we read on forums & the media is from those stuck outside the country that want to repatriate with families, girlfriends or non-essential employment opportunities (English “teachers”).

The recent YouTube footage of Bali & Phuket / Pattaya is depressingto watch.   These places look like rundown, deserted slums .  Nothings open & unlikely to unless the Crowds come back.   Who will open for a trickle of tourists that are limited in what they can do.

These places above would be mainly Low budget travellers, flying LCCs looking for cheap beer & hedonistic escapism from the daily grind of their jobs in the west.

But....a lot of them don’t have those jobs.  They’ve spent what available cash they have on bills, mortgages etc.    Staycations is now the popular Buzzword.    People are spending the cash put aside for their annual holiday on home improvements, boats, dirt bikes etc.     That is what’s worrying the tourism  industry.    They are scared shitless that the disposable cash put aside for that holiday ( especially the European & US ) higher end destinations, is being spent elsewhere & those people are losing the travel bug.

You couldn’t pay me to go anywhere now. ( I’m already in SE Asia) .  It’s simply a stressful experience.   

You’ve got pre flight testing ( Test +, your stuffed)
Insurance ... COVID Insurance is expensive
A shitty flight experience , masks, goggles ,  basic i flight services
No certainty the plane will even take -off .....delays & cancellations
Applying for Job leave ( If you still have a job)& your not even sure their will be flights
Testing & quarantine on arrival
Get out of quarantine & nothings open.....😳
Rinse & repeat for the return journey
AND , currently for an Australian , you can add @ $6000 to the experience for the testing & quarantine in both directions.   
Also.....since  Planes will be half empty because not many will be keen on doing the above hoops & hurdles shuffle.....airfares will be a lot higher.

Good luck attracting anyone.   Who wants to be first into Phuket the way it looks now.  Hotels & restaurants won’t open up & hire staff for a handful of arrivals.

You’d be surrounded by tuk tuk drivers & Street  beggars the minute you walk out of quarantine.

Try selling that.

Well put, well said...

Unfortunately that's mostly right.  The problem is that this is only looking at tourism from that earlier paradigm, of a vacationer coming for two weeks, or maybe three, maybe with a family.  Thailand can promote long stays that are based on a different paradigm, which is more or less what they are trying to do.  Badly, unfortunately.

There's no getting around those problems, horrific travel conditions, visiting a deserted area, at least initially, quarantine, economic disruption everywhere.  They need to build up what works better, instead of just promoting the typical beach vacation.  The virus isn't really here; that's big.  Cost of living really should be so cheap that someone could move from somewhere else and stay as a tourist-type guest for the same or lower cost than living where they are (maybe not deleting out all the quarantine cost, so it just depends, but I've seen two weeks room and board listed at 45,000, or $1500 US, not $3000).  Some people routinely split their time between Thailand and elsewhere, due to having a condo here, or girlfriend or family; they can get on with welcoming them back, just with extra hoops to jump through.

Or the related government agencies could keep changing plans, and adding fees and other details, reacting to every concern with an extra limitation.  An example:  they want to include both a test requirement before flying and a quarantine step after, with use of a chartered flight in the middle.  And they also want to limit visitors to being from the lowest risk countries, with the less incidence of pandemic.  But why?  To do a staged program makes sense, to have less people who are really infected testing the controls in the initial rounds, but then they can just say that.  They can promote this to a broad audience and try to accept the people most likely to spend most, initially, without alienating potential visitors by slighting them, framing them as unwanted.  They need to push through a pilot program that doesn't have too many holes in it and get on with it.

Very good points and insight...I find some irony in the program in the numbers they are talking about because the smart people will do the math and figure out it makes no sense to go.  The only people they will attract are the desperate people with money, which is the ones they say they do not want...and do not mean desperate as in low life per say, it could be those with family there, assets there, etc.

My concern is the numbers are down in SE Asia because they are not testing like a lot of countries so they really do not know the true numbers especially with a virus that shows no symptoms...but again at least the government is trying something to help out.  Just not sure this makes a lot of sense..

Again, great insight...

Stay safe all...

They need to get a pilot program running before they can really promote this, and once they do then they can attach more marketing spin to it.  I think it would be a mistake to leave people who visit Thailand often out, which is essentially what the early program looks to be designed to do.  It wouldn't take much to fix that though, to streamline a few steps, keep some fees in check, and express to people who aren't "high dollar" tourists that they are welcome and valued.  In the early versions it sounded like foreigners who own a condo here might not be likely to be selected for a visa, which is crazy.

I think a lot of people might like the sound of 3 to 6 months in a tropical country, that is low in cost, that doesn't have a pandemic going on.  Factoring in jet-lag giving up the first week isn't as bad as it sounds.  Of course someone can vacation well enough with severe jet-lag but if it's a 10-12 hour shift, as is the case for most of the US, that's rough for the first 4 or 5 days.  They say that it takes one day per hour of change to acclimate, and for the most part that's true, but for the purpose of vacationing a week of adjustment is plenty.  That second week would just be about waiting, but isolation should be a fairly familiar subject at this point.

With the 3 to 9 mth  Visa your mainly targeting retirees.    From what I’ve seen & do myself is we “bunker down” and look for reasonable long term accommodation & that usually includes a kitchen.

So that takes out a lot of restaurant meals & hotel rooms.   Long term Gym memberships as well also help fill in the days.    You won’t see them on a jet ski.   The daily spend on long term stays is way lower than the two week millionaires.

From my experience I’ve seen the 2 week millionaires ( FIFO Mine workers ) from Australia come here every month & throw money around like drunken sailors.   But Immigration knocked that on the head & limited the number of  Visits , unless they jumped thru some more hoops.     Bali was a convenient & closer alternative.

Anyway..who wants to mortgage their home , or put whatever cash they have into a tourist business, restaurant or whatever with the likely hood of a 2nd,3rd wave coming.   It’s the invisible monster, nobody knows what it even is....not really certain how it started & it’s mutating into other “strains”. 

Landlords with restaurants, gyms & cinemas as their tenants will soon be on life support themselves.   Those places are the first to close.  Commercial property values are now debatable,,,people are working from home, Tele-conferences ....the days of sending bloated buffoons on junkets flying Ist class & 5 star hotels will disappear.  Shareholders won’t be funding that anymore.

Most 5star hotels & Ist class airfares are paid for with “other people’s money”.....tax payers, shareholders, banks & private equity schmucks. Those days are numbered.

Even big shopping malls are in the cross hairs.   Most foot traffic is for the amusement , nice smells, Air Con & the cheap food courts.   When ever I walk into a shopping centre , the first thing I look for is ....Anybody Carrying anything.   Not many is there.   It’s just cheap entertainment...AC for the poor.   And usually the people carrying something is from the major grocery outlet in the mall.   Tourists buying chips, drinks & snacks to eat back at the hotel or apartment.

I can see Tourism will take on a whole new shape.

Very good points, thanks.  One day things will change...smile

Another problem will be the medical infrastructure in some SE Asian countries.  Bali in particular doesn’t have the scale of infrastructure to handle nearly 3 million visitors from Australia & China alone.

Basically what they’ve got is barely capable of looking after the locals & patching up drunk scooter riders.

So.....I can see “duty of care” by governments in not allowing their citizens to fly into destinations that are ill equipped to handle a sudden outbreak of another health pandemic.   They’d be sending them on a suicide mission.       Also,,,,Insurance issues.   Depending on the destination , you may get a shock what the premiums will be.

There are “government” operated medical clinics in Cambodia that DO NOT require the “doctors” to have qualifications.   I live in Vietnam, there’s been cases where Men have been diagnosed as Pregnant,  the wrong leg amputated, etc etc.  It’s a circus.     An Aussie woman had a bike accident in Phuket last year.  Her legs had to be amputated on return to Australia due to the poor treatment in Phuket hospital.  Gangrene had set in.

We’ve all grown accustomed to the developing nations “issues” . Vietnam has had “fake” pilots from Pakistan flying for a local carrier. Nepotism, Cronyism & corruption is  rampant in these places & people buying Uni degrees & credentials to get cushy jobs is happening.

We’ve laughed & joked about it,,,,but the party could be over.   They will end up choking on their own bullshit & fuckery.
It will be either Lift your game , or , get out of the game.

After all,  a lot of SE Asian destinations are in the game purely on Price point.   If they weren’t virtually giving the beer away,,nobody would come.😆

My case in point.  Walk thru the departure lounges at an Aussie airport.  Take a look at the people waiting for flights for Japan, Europe & USA etc.    Then go take a look at the “mob” waiting for the Bali & Thai flights.     

Guess which mob have the most tattoos , dreadlocks, ukulele’s , missing teeth etc and look like they’ve slept outside the airport overnight.     Given the increased Airfares, Insurance , quarantine & testing costs ...that tourism target sector won’t be coming since they’ll simply be priced out of it.

Vietnam has announced a 5 day quarantine @ $5 a day.  Also C19 testing @ $63.    Cheapest of any Asian destination.  Even Cambodia want a $2000 bond to cover quarantine & testing.

How 5 day quarantine works & when it’s begins is anyone’s guess tho.
Foreign government Medics will be thinking that too.......

Also, it’s group quarantine in military dormitories.  Inmates can freely roam the facilities, play soccer,  basketball,yoga classes etc....communal eating rooms.   How the hell is that going to work.  It should be individual isolation.   And, the virus can remain undetected in your system for longer than 5 days.

I can’t see foreign governments letting their citizens enter countries where that’s going on.   Ridiculous system......but hey, it’s only $5 bucks a day including food & laundry.

The Phuket quarantine island idea was advertised starting from $5000 14 days & NOT including testing fees.

Looks like  Vietnam will get the Ukelele toting hippy’s & drunks......just like we always have. 😆😆

Thailand kept floating lots of really flawed "Phuket models," trying to get tourism restarted in an isolated fashion.  At first they were thinking that since Phuket is an island they could just let people go there, and a potential outbreak would be limited geographically.  Of course that's absurd; lots of other tourists and support staff would become sick, and all of them couldn't safely travel elsewhere, and there isn't sufficient medical support for them. 

Then they wanted to isolate people in their hotels for two weeks, thinking that at least infection cases would be contained, but visitors could still go to the beach, or to the hotel gym or restaurant.  It doesn't take much thought to see why that's unworkable, because an entire hotel and the staff working there would become infected quickly enough, spreading the disease throughout Phuket and back to the mainland.  Just testing before or during traveling has the same problem; it would lead to an outbreak. 

Related to cost lowest end 14 day isolations discussed in Thailand now cost between $1000 and $1500, for room and board, not so bad.   That model is about segregating visitors into a basic version of a hotel room though, with higher end options for upgrading that experience, but then you're still stuck in a hotel room.

I won't reject that a lot of visitors to Thailand are here for the low cost, and that a lot are either backpackers or sex tourists, and many would have a certain look.  There are families visiting Thailand too, and some wealthier tourists, the last just isn't the main theme.  There are places like Maldives out there for people seeking spectacular tropical settings, without the mix of interesting fellow travelers.

Vietnam is headed for trouble if they really are putting a 5 day quarantine into broad practice.  With effective testing steps prior to travel and before release from isolation most of the cases would be caught but eventually an outbreak would still result.  Even a 14 day quarantine alone wouldn't catch 100% of all cases, but with testing it really should be effective.

Ok.

I have been waiting and watching to see how this pans out. My "Big Plan" before Covid was to come to Thailand, spend 2 weeks looking around 3-4 places  have found of interest, return to Alaska for the remainder of the year and come back in late October 2021 for 4ish months of serious poking around..

The way this is going I don't think 2 weeks this winter will happen. Please keep posting the many changes to the Thai Government and the slow process of reopening...

Sitting Tight