Good grief another lock down coming?

Enzyte Bob wrote:

Put all their wisdom & ideas in one hand and a pile of dung in the other had, clap your hands and see what you get.

May I suggest you consider a career in the diplomatic corps?

Who counts 2 million corpses as "small incidence of death"?

Well, the problem is that the politicians are afraid of lawsuits against them if they don't act like that ! In France the government is already attacked in court by groups saying the government did not do enough in terms of lockdown etc. !

Many are blaming politicians for the mess, but many have done what they can in an impossible situation (others have sat on their fat arses and done nothing).
Before anyone has a pop at politicians, consider the issues they face, then try to see how you would have done better with the information available at the time - AND the pressure from .. errr. pressure groups.
Some have shown up as wimps of the worst sort, whilst others have been exposed as useless gits, but some have done best they could in a crap situation.
I won't offer any names as political arguments only serve to mess the forum up, but it's a good little project as far as a bit of critical thinking goes, and tests your political beliefs.

Jeffrey-Martin wrote:

Who counts 2 million corpses as "small incidence of death"?

Well considering there are 7.8 Billion people in the world today and pre covid in 2017, 150,000 people died each day in the world (55 Million per year), so it's a small incidence.

Enzyte Bob wrote:

Jeffrey-Martin wrote:

Who counts 2 million corpses as "small incidence of death"?

Well considering there are 7.8 Billion people in the world today and pre covid in 2017, 150,000 people died each day in the world (55 Million per year), so it's a small incidence.

If you look at deaths from all causes, in all countries, the COVID cases don't even show as a statistical blip. I'm not an expert but in my opinion, the restrictions are too severe. We ought to be looking to controls that protect the health services from becoming overwhelmed while allowing the economies to stay afloat. Priorities for vaccinations should be for front line workers and those most at risk. I realise that many will not agree with my view.

I also like throw sticks at the politicians especially if their decisions are not to my liking but....... whatever decisions they make, someone will always say they made bad decisions. Sometimes I think I can do a better job than these politicians, but nahhh, I don't think I can do what they do.
On vaccinations in the US, the politicians got inoculated prior to a whole lot of people. I think this is a good idea. Why? Someone needs to test the side effects of the vaccine before giving to our frontliners. 😂
My better half is a frontliner, there are definitely more patients with Covid lately.

I think you have to compare comparable things : in France 10 000 people die every year of flue. But this year nobody died of flue but more than 60 000 died of Covid-19. Six times more and with 2 lockdowns !
If you start to add all the deaths all over  the world it is like adding apples and oranges !

All i see is how fragile so many things really are, under the veneer of control that we like to believe we have but actually don't.

So best not to plan too many future deals/trips & end up getting disappointed/depressed once again...like its been for the last 9months & counting.
Just try and enjoy the time and space we have currently.
Omo

And if the vaccines  are the solution, then the poor countries in the warmer climates are last in line.  Herd immunity in the Philippines is far away, hopefully the medical people will be protected sometime soon.  Lockdown could be the only answer.  Good thing about being an expat  is you can leave whenever you like as long as you jump through all the hoops.  We don't expect to return for at least another two years.

mugtech wrote:

Lockdown could be the only answer.  Good thing about being an expat  is you can leave whenever you like as long as you jump through all the hoops.  We don't expect to return for at least another two years.

Leaving for many Expats is not an option, some like me leave to where? The past is gone.

Lockdown for most part has been a failure, not only a failure but the aftermath it created, millions of businesses lost forever and their jobs. If and when Covid is in the rear view mirror the wrecked lives & economy is still in front of us.

If lockdown was successful why nine months later the second wave is bigger than the first wave? Having the Military or Police at checkpoints and intersections? No one yet knows for sure how the virus spreads, if they did we would not need a second lockdown. I'm not in favor of repeating the same mistake again. After its failure what then a third lockdown?

Enzyte Bob wrote:

No one yet knows for sure how the virus spreads, if they did we would not need a second lockdown.

That isn't true. We know how it spreads. The virus is present in droplets and aerosols that are emitted from an infected person (who may be asymptomatic) and when we breathe it in, the spike protein attaches to our cells and replicates. Obviously worse indoors without good ventilation.  This is well known.

The problem is that people fail to protect themselves - either deliberately, carelessly or involuntarily, and the virus spreads. Once the virus begins to replicate exponentially within a population,  hospitals and healthcare workers become overwhelmed if it is not controlled.  This is what lockdowns are trying to prevent.

Lockdown should be a last resort, due to the economic damage and suffering it causes, and there are usually several steps between a controlled situation and lockdown. Mandatory masks, closing of indoor activities, limiting travel, etc. But if those don't work, lockdown is the last resort. Here in the US many areas are going back into restrictions due to ICU's at 100% capacity, and exhausted healthcare workers.

BassMan_720 wrote:

Enzyte Bob wrote:

Jeffrey-Martin wrote:

Who counts 2 million corpses as "small incidence of death"?

Well considering there are 7.8 Billion people in the world today and pre covid in 2017, 150,000 people died each day in the world (55 Million per year), so it's a small incidence.

If you look at deaths from all causes, in all countries, the COVID cases don't even show as a statistical blip. I'm not an expert but in my opinion, the restrictions are too severe. We ought to be looking to controls that protect the health services from becoming overwhelmed while allowing the economies to stay afloat. Priorities for vaccinations should be for front line workers and those most at risk. I realise that many will not agree with my view.

Just looking at death rates  is misleading. Obviously those numbers would have been far higher if not for the steps that WERE taken, and death rates are a fraction of the number of people who have suffered long-term or debilitating effects of their infection. This thing has been found in almost every organ. It's a nasty little bugger. Let's hope we contain it before the mutations get worse.

I will be in line for the vaccine as soon as it is my turn.

What isn't made in China anyway?
Maglite for one I know.
Are bamboo backscratchers made in the Philippines?

i just hope the tic-tac ufos were made in usa

pnwcyclist wrote:

Enzyte Bob wrote:

No one yet knows for sure how the virus spreads, if they did we would not need a second lockdown.

That isn't true. We know how it spreads. The virus is present in droplets and aerosols that are emitted from an infected person (who may be asymptomatic) and when we breathe it in, the spike protein attaches to our cells and replicates. Obviously worse indoors without good ventilation.  This is well known.

We had face masks, face shields, social distancing , disinfecting, hand washing, bottles of alcohol, closing of indoor activities & limited travel.

Obviously it didn't work the first time as the second wave is larger than the first wave. We have had a head start on the second wave and done everything suggested per the first wave but sooner.

So Infection is more than droplets, aerosols, and careless people and their expelled air that we may breath in.

What's the next step? Go back to square one and repeat it, expecting different results?

Well of course not everyone is doing those things. You really think the average Filipino is wearing their face mask everywhere? Sure, they wear it at the store, the bank and the mall, but not in all parts of the province, around the neighborhood/village and probably not in the squatter areas of the cities. And they're still probably gathering indoors.

There seems to be a very high asymptomatic number of cases in the Philippines, based on what we saw before, so you're going to eventually have community spread again. Even though it got better for awhile, I see it as inevitable because people naturally relax their behaviors when they don't feel the threat.. same thing as keeps happening here.

Unfortunately this new 50% more contagious variant isn't going to make it any better.

The main method of transmission is from the droplets you speak of ending up on plaves like door knobs and other things we may touch, hence, the alcohol they spray on your hands

pnwcyclist wrote:

Well of course not everyone is doing those things. You really think the average Filipino is wearing their face mask everywhere? Sure, they wear it at the store, the bank and the mall, but not in all parts of the province, around the neighborhood/village and probably not in the squatter areas of the cities. And they're still probably gathering indoors.

There seems to be a very high asymptomatic number of cases in the Philippines, based on what we saw before, so you're going to eventually have community spread again. Even though it got better for awhile, I see it as inevitable because people naturally relax their behaviors when they don't feel the threat.. same thing as keeps happening here.

Unfortunately this new 50% more contagious variant isn't going to make it any better.

PNWCYCLIST,

I guess the question is what environment  you are living in. Myself the only time I've been out of the house is trips to S&R or Pioneer Center, maybe 7 or 8 times. In both places they take my temperature an disinfect the shopping cart handles. Everyone there is using face masks and shields. But no social distancing. We take Grab and the driver is insulated from us passengers.

My Stepson  & Daughter-in-Law work at the Mall. So it is possible for Covid to sneak in.

On a recent trip to immigration, people were wearing masks, but their shields were on the top of their heads, not covering their face. Also no social distancing whatsoever and quite crowded.

But the second wave is world wide including educated countries, even so Manila has one of the highest densities in the world conducive to the spread of Covid.

Now what concerns me, for example an aircraft carrier, with  5,000 crew members in close proximity, what protocols do they use? Also nursing homes, specially full of Medicaid seniors. (Welfare for the poor). Those places are staffed with minimum wage workers, if given a background check they would not be hired. I've been inside one and before Covid the living conditions were deplorable.

In my crystal ball, I don't see a bright future, if covid don't get you, the economy will.

Plame politicians if you like, some are to blame sure. But look closer to home. Its joe public that is streaming it they are the real ones to blame!!

In Pattaya in Thailand all non essential businesses were just ordered once again closed and the peoples movements once again restricted.  No doubt other areas will follow in their footsteps.

In California, one of the states with the strictest Covid rules has also the highest infection rates.  So much for bankrupting businesses, closing churches and cancelling Christmas get togethers.

New strains found in the UK and in Sulu in the RP, and on and on, etc.   etc.  etc.

Masks and face shields may help to some degree,  though the lockdowns, overall, have been a failure.  The ruling elite have done a great job worldwide of destroying lives, livelihood's, economies and futures.  Now they wish to do it all over again. 

I remember the movie "One flew over the Cuckoo's nest",  and here's Johnny!

Thank goodness for the integrity and truthfulness of our world leaders, the media, the WHO, the CDC and Xi Jinping.  It's reassuring to know that they haven't exploited the virus for political reasons.

The virus stay alive a while (5 days? they said early) at things. So even if someone else deliver from supermarket and never come close to the reciever, there can be virus alive at the delivered...

Duterte has been angry long time at many people becaause they don't follow the restrictions specialy in Manila.

All i see is fragility...loads and loads of fragility. All one can do now is try and stay +ve, healthy / follow safety protocols the best you can and leave the rest to the almighty.
This is a world war we are in with an unseen virus...people are stil dying/starving daily so best to hunker down...take nothing for granted & enjoy the time you have left....time for my tanduay rhum & karaoke singing.
Omo

coach53 wrote:

The virus stay alive a while (5 days? they said early) at things. So even if someone else deliver from supermarket and never come close to the reciever, there can be virus alive at the delivered...

Duterte has been angry long time at many people becaause they don't follow the restrictions specialy in Manila.

Recent reporting is saying that contact spreading is much less than originally thought.  They now believe that virus dies fairly quickly on surfaces.

I have been taught on scientific grounds that virus means dead! I am wondering if the media and others are now starting to confuse virus and bacteria. The original virus released in Wuhan if somehow finding its way into active human cell metabolism would be attracted into the call and replication could follow but the science still says the virus is dead. Covid-19 has never been isolated for accuracy in description and pathogenic properties so it is very confusing and has been for a long time.
Cheers from John

I'm by no way an expert on this. The linked article is written in simple terms and asks this question. (are viruses dead or alive)

It appears that the case is still out on whether a virus is dead or alive.

Steve

I think the confusion may partly be because of the older vaccines  which used the term "dead" or "no live".

Fred wrote:

Many are blaming politicians for the mess, but many have done what they can in an impossible situation (others have sat on their fat arses and done nothing).
Before anyone has a pop at politicians, consider the issues they face, then try to see how you would have done better with the information available at the time - AND the pressure from .. errr. pressure groups.
Some have shown up as wimps of the worst sort, whilst others have been exposed as useless gits, but some have done best they could in a crap situation.
I won't offer any names as political arguments only serve to mess the forum up, but it's a good little project as far as a bit of critical thinking goes, and tests your political beliefs.

Nearly a year later and what has changed?  They still call for lockdowns and a plethora of other restrictions.  Maybe the reason they still support what has obviously failed, is they have yet to achieve the desired result?  That too, is also a possibility.

Maybe they just have fallen in love with the CONTROL

TeeJay4103 wrote:

Fred wrote:

Many are blaming politicians for the mess, but many have done what they can in an impossible situation (others have sat on their fat arses and done nothing).
Before anyone has a pop at politicians, consider the issues they face, then try to see how you would have done better with the information available at the time - AND the pressure from .. errr. pressure groups.
Some have shown up as wimps of the worst sort, whilst others have been exposed as useless gits, but some have done best they could in a crap situation.
I won't offer any names as political arguments only serve to mess the forum up, but it's a good little project as far as a bit of critical thinking goes, and tests your political beliefs.

Nearly a year later and what has changed?  They still call for lockdowns and a plethora of other restrictions.  Maybe the reason they still support what has obviously failed, is they have yet to achieve the desired result?  That too, is also a possibility.

I appreciate particularly what you say Fred and I will add also TeeJay's addition, only my lowly opinion but the correct advice to restrict/control this pandemic has been with all countries for over 9/10 months, which/who will be the first sheep in line at the slaughter house? What fool will drive while drunk?

Am I the only poor fool that listened to the warnings and advice from the medical fraternity and not the constantly postulated confusion from many countries leaders? No. I am still here locked now in my little nirvana and doing OK. Very sad the line at the slaughter house through ignorance and what is negligence/respect for the fellow sheep that tried to stay at the back of the line.

As said only my opinion.

Cheers, Steve.

geolefrench wrote:

Well, the problem is that the politicians are afraid of lawsuits against them if they don't act like that ! In France the government is already attacked in court by groups saying the government did not do enough in terms of lockdown etc. !

It's like with regards to politicians and lockdowns, you're damned if you do, and damned if you don't.

If one orders a lockdown, and businesses close, people will complain that it's damaging the economy.

If one does not issue a lockdown, and the number of cases, deaths and hospitalizations surge, people will complain why a lockdown was not issued.

If one wavers between ordering a lockdown or not, or taking a middle route, what ever happens, people will complain of the indecision and teetering or half-baked plans that didn't work.

Whatever politicians decide on, they would be caught between a rock and a hard place, as the course of this pandemic is unpredictable.

Being retired it is easy for us to just stay home, as our income has not changed, and with the healthy idea of going no where, we are actually saving money.  So we prefer to wear masks, go out for only essential items, and hope to be in good shape when it is our turn to get the vaccine.  We would prefer to stay safe, not get infected or infect anyone else, realizing 2022 is worth waiting for.  Not sure at what point we will get the vaccine, thinking we will get it sooner in the USA than if we were in the Philippines.

Fil-Am Mom wrote:

geolefrench wrote:

Well, the problem is that the politicians are afraid of lawsuits against them if they don't act like that ! In France the government is already attacked in court by groups saying the government did not do enough in terms of lockdown etc. !

It's like with regards to politicians and lockdowns, you're damned if you do, and damned if you don't.

If one orders a lockdown, and businesses close, people will complain that it's damaging the economy.

If one does not issue a lockdown, and the number of cases, deaths and hospitalizations surge, people will complain why a lockdown was not issued.

If one wavers between ordering a lockdown or not, or taking a middle route, what ever happens, people will complain of the indecision and teetering or half-baked plans that didn't work.

Whatever politicians decide on, they would be caught between a rock and a hard place, as the course of this pandemic is unpredictable.

For the first 6 months or so we, like the politicians, scientists, doctors, etc. , were not sure what would or would not work.  To this day, we wear our masks and shields as requested and they seem to offer some help. 
Now we are into the 2nd year and because we like many others have read research and listened to professionals and their recommendations.  It would seem that as you stated "this pandemic is unpredictable". Knowing that and knowing that the lockdowns have had little to no success, it would seem that returning to a failed solution is not only foolish, but also self defeating.

Like it or not, the worlds economies are what allows people to feed and clothe themselves, put a roof over their heads and care for the young and old.  Destroying those economies is already proven to cause depression, homelessness, health problems (aside from the virus), and a societal breakdown leading to desperation and crime.   
Many of the people I know that have worked in essential and now non essentials jobs in retail environments, are the same people that I saw before the virus.  They have not succumbed to it in spite of daily exposure to thousands of people.

When we go out and visit a retail establishment, a restaurant, a clinic, a hospital, the market, etc, where people mingle, touch railings, shelves, displays, doors, shopping carts and constantly adjust their masks and shields by touch, others then touch what they have touched.

Our leaders should know at this point that destroying their respective economies also destroys the country and its people. They, like many of us, have had ample time to learn from the mistakes and move forward.

For those who wish to lock themselves away and allow others to go out into the world to do their shopping, grow their food and deliver it, work in manufacturing, grocery outlets, utilities and other essential jobs, and take the risks for them,  seems a bit cowardly with the exception of those who are not physically capable of going out to take care of their own business.
Whatever that designated underpaid shopper brings back to the home has been touched and touched again by others who are out in the world bringing these goods to you. 

So if we are all locked away for our own good, then we should be thankful that we have no food, no income, no home, because at least we don't have the virus.

TeeJay4103 wrote:

For those who wish to lock themselves away and allow others to go out into the world to do their shopping, grow their food and deliver it, work in manufacturing, grocery outlets, utilities and other essential jobs, and take the risks for them,  seems a bit cowardly with the exception of those who are not physically capable of going out to take care of their own business.
Whatever that designated underpaid shopper brings back to the home has been touched and touched again by others who are out in the world bringing these goods to you.

Well. Different people are different much in risk to die.  Younger relatives shop and deliver outside the door to around 85 yo mother and aunt.
Less risk for them anyway by the touches than if they would get both travel, meetings in shops and the touches.

coach53 wrote:

TeeJay4103 wrote:

For those who wish to lock themselves away and allow others to go out into the world to do their shopping, grow their food and deliver it, work in manufacturing, grocery outlets, utilities and other essential jobs, and take the risks for them,  seems a bit cowardly with the exception of those who are not physically capable of going out to take care of their own business.
Whatever that designated underpaid shopper brings back to the home has been touched and touched again by others who are out in the world bringing these goods to you.

Well. Different people are different much in risk to die.  Younger relatives shop and deliver outside the door to around 85 yo mother and aunt.
Less risk for them anyway by the touches than if they would get both travel, meetings in shops and the touches.

I believe I alluded to that where I stated "with the exception of those who are not physically capable of going out to take care of their business". 

To clarify further. This would include the infirm, those with pre-existing health concerns, underage children, the elderly, the handicapped etc.  These would be included in those who are not physically capable of going out to take care of business.

TeeJay4103 wrote:

I believe I alluded to that where I stated "with the exception of those who are not physically capable of going out to take care of their business.

To clarify further. This would include the infirm, those with pre-existing health concerns, underage children, the elderly, the handicapped etc.  These would be included in those who are not physically capable of going out to take care of business.

Yes.  My 86yo mother can do all herself, she walk in nature 2 km per day just for exersise, which shock Filipinos    haha         She want to travel with bus to make the shoping herself, but we try to make her stay away from people.

It's predominantly spread through aerosols..not touching things. And when it starts to spread it is exponential. The intention of a lockdown is last resort to prevent that exponential growth. From the very beginning the disease specialists predicted it would come in waves, as happened during the 1918 Flu pandemic. And so it has. Probably not helped by all the mass gatherings we have had here at least.

If it were allowed to spread freely as I hear some here implying should be done, the number of deaths would be catastrophic. You simply cannot let it loose and protect the vulnerable, just look at Sweden's failed experiment. Especially now with the new variants which are far more contagious. Here in the US we are losing control, hospitals are at 100%  and now turning away those who are unlikely to make it.

We are close to a solution now with vaccines coming online but rollout is slow.

pnwcyclist wrote:

It's predominantly spread through aerosols..not touching things. And when it starts to spread it is exponential. The intention of a lockdown is last resort to prevent that exponential growth. From the very beginning the disease specialists predicted it would come in waves, as happened during the 1918 Flu pandemic. And so it has. Probably not helped by all the mass gatherings we have had here at least.

If it were allowed to spread freely as I hear some here implying should be done, the number of deaths would be catastrophic. You simply cannot let it loose and protect the vulnerable, just look at Sweden's failed experiment. Especially now with the new variants which are far more contagious. Here in the US we are losing control, hospitals are at 100%  and now turning away those who are unlikely to make it.

We are close to a solution now with vaccines coming online but rollout is slow.

If you are for the lockdown and against those who are not, that is up to you to decide for yourself, not for others.
Some studies do show that the virus can be spread by those infected (with unwashed hands) that have touched something that another right behind them may then touch.
So the total collapse of the world economies and a shortage of food and other basic necessities is OK with you?

I for one imply nothing,  I just lay it bare. The lockdowns do not work and are destructive. We have family members in the states who are nurses and one doctor and they contradict what you say when you state that "Here in the US we are losing control, hospitals are at 100%" . Please provide more than one reputable source that confirms your comment.

Who is going to supply you with the necessities of life in the good ol US of A?  or are you ready to go back to nature? 

Who exactly is it that is implying it should be allowed to spread exponentially?   You know for a fact that the vaccines work on all the new "variants" you mention?   

Mass gatherings?  Like the riots around the country that were not controlled nor condemned by the so called leaders in charge of the parts of the country that were set ablaze. 

With all due respect, live as you see fit and so will I.  The virus is real, so is it's exploitation.  As Rahm Emmanuel put so succinctly "Never let a good crisis go to waste".

If you are scared stay inside.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/its-a-desp … amp;page=1https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2 … es-oxygen/https://apnews.com/article/arizona-coro … f64735db22

Your argument that one is FOR or AGAINST lockdowns is a false choice. There are many stages of restrictions to prevent the virus spread and as I have stated before, lockdowns should be a last resort to prevent total overload of the hospitals and health care workers who are braving their lives to save many fools who did not choose to protect themselves.

I am mainly for following protocols such as mask wearing and social distancing but many here do not agree, as packed holiday events and airports will show. Hence we have a worsening situation after the holidays. I live in Arizona where we are currently at 93% ICU capacity. Southern Calif is worse, Vegas is bad. I am sure some areas do not have a problem yet, but across the country most metro areas do.