Early elections are a cause of surprise and worry in France
A storm is brewing in France. Since President Macron's shocking announcement, daily political drama has become the norm. Candidates are fiercely competing, and voters are mobilizing. The dates for the early legislative elections (June 29/30 and July 6/7) have pushed thousands of French citizens to the police stations to validate their proxies. French citizens abroad had until Sunday, June 16, to update their details to vote online. If they missed this, they can still vote in person at an embassy or consulate. These early legislative elections follow the historic victory of the far-right Rassemblement National (RN) in the European elections, where the party won 31.37% of the votes, far ahead of the presidential party (14.6%).
Two weeks before the first round, the world still struggles to understand the president's decision, as he was not compelled to take such drastic measures given his relative majority. Heavily criticized domestically and internationally, the French president stands by his decision, aiming to force political parties to clearly define their programs rather than undermine his. The president is betting on a “proof by example” strategy: he believes the RN's incompetence in leading France would push voters to choose a more moderate option in 2027. This is a risky tactic. He also wants to "give a voice to the French," confident they will choose moderation once again. In 2017 and 2022, French expatriates predominantly voted for Emmanuel Macron. France still struggles to reduce unemployment (+7.6%). Growth is expected to be 0.8% this year.
United Kingdom: Rishi Sunak's attempt to revive the Conservatives
Rishi Sunak is making a bold move to save his party as the Conservatives struggle to convince and rally support. On Wednesday, May 22, Rishi Sunak announced general elections for July 4, surprising everyone. These were originally scheduled for January 2025. While the Prime Minister hinted at the possibility of early elections this year, many thought these were only rumors. The Prime Minister's decision has even surprised his own party. Will voters turn out in the summer? Can the Conservatives catch up to the Labour Party?
Rishi Sunak is relying on the recent economic upturn. He promised stability, and the country's GDP grew by 0.6% in the first quarter of 2024, which is better than France (+0.2%), Germany (+0.2%), and the United States (+0.4%). Inflation has dropped to 3.2%, a far cry from its peak of over 10%. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) confirms that the UK is out of the recession it entered at the end of 2023, compelling the OECD, which previously saw the UK as the weakest G7 member, to review its outlook. The country will likely experience higher-than-expected annual growth. These are the points the Conservatives are banking on to outperform Labour. Labour, on the other hand, mocks this “illusory economic rebound,” claiming it hides the still difficult daily lives of millions of Britons.
The Brexit taboo and the Far-Right threat
One issue is missing from the campaign: Brexit. The European elections did not garner much attention in the UK, which is more focused on the upcoming general elections. However, parties are deliberately avoiding Brexit, which remains a sensitive and taboo topic. Will Labour backtrack on Brexit? “Bregrets" —Britons who regret Brexit or never wanted it in the first place, remain hopeful. As of January 2024, 60% of Britons said they regretted Brexit. Among them are those who see that immigration hasn't slowed down, the economy is sluggish, and it's harder to move and travel within the EU. Besides, sectors like fishing, transport, and agriculture are impacted by Brexit.
However, neither the Conservatives nor Labour want to revisit the Brexit issue or discuss a new referendum. The government prefers to make discreet agreements to mitigate the effects of leaving the EU. The results of Sunak's strategy in the upcoming general elections remain to be seen. For now, polls predict a Labour victory. But the far-right could disrupt things. According to a YouGov poll published in the Times, the far-right Reform UK party could receive 18% of the vote—one point more than the Tories. This is a significant shift, although the polling institute reminds us it's just a poll and there's a margin of error to consider. The Liberal Democrats are close behind both parties with 15% of the vote. Labour still leads with 37% of voting intentions.
Would a Labour government be favorable to expatriates?
Those looking to move abroad hope for a relaxation of the immigration policies made more restrictive by Sunak's government. However, their wish might not come true. In early June, Labour leader Keir Starmer promised to “reduce immigration” if his party wins the general elections. He also announced that job priority would be given to Britons. Companies not complying with the law would be prohibited from hiring expatriates.
Algeria: Early presidential elections to reignite power
On March 21, the government announced early presidential elections, surprising observers. Originally set for December, these elections will occur three months earlier, on September 7, 2024. The March 21 statement provided no reason for this advancement. Some see it as a maneuver by President Abdelmadjid Tebboune, although he has not yet announced if he will seek a second term. The original December date coincided with the end of Tebboune's current term. He was elected on December 12, 2019, with 58% of the vote, and his term was supposed to end in December.
Both local and expatriate Algerians are questioning this decision. The opposition insists on the people's right to know the reasons behind the early elections. Eventually, the government mentioned a return to "normalcy" after the tense 2019 elections, marked by record abstention, massive rejection of the Hirak (popular protest movement), and external crises. However, people are not convinced by these arguments.
The government is counting on overseas Algerians as its "ambassadors". They have until June 27 to register on the electoral lists. The incumbent president seeks to rally expatriates to his cause by implementing measures to facilitate their return, such as allowing entry to Algeria with a valid foreign passport and an expired Algerian identity card or passport. Expatriates are closely monitoring the situation. The third-largest economy in Africa has bounced back post-COVID, with growth rates of 3.8% in 2021 and 4.2% in 2023. However, unemployment remains high (11.6%), particularly among youth (26.9%).
The return of Conservatives in Iran
Following the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in May, Iran's presidential elections will take place on June 28. Eighty candidates submitted their applications, but only six were approved by the Guardian Council, which is dominated by conservatives and led by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Should we expect a major policy shift? Most candidates are conservatives, with only one reformist (Massoud Pezeshkian, former Minister of Health). Four women applied, but none were approved by the Council, which also rejected moderate candidates without providing reasons. Observers believe many of these decisions are subjective.
Despite ongoing U.S. sanctions affecting the Iranian economy, the country has learned to navigate these restrictions, making profits primarily through oil sales to China. According to the Iranian Statistical Center, 6.9% of men and 14.8% of women are unemployed. Women are notably underrepresented in the labor market, with only 18.1% active compared to 89.2% of men (2022 figures). Youth unemployment exceeds 20%. Local and expatriates hoped for significant changes with the end of conservative dominance, but the Council's stringent filtering process leaves little room for reformists. Freedom fighters remain vigilant. The international community is closely watching these elections due to Iran's role in the conflict between Israel and Hamas.
Political crises, early elections, and expat exodus
Several other early elections have taken place so far. In March, Catalonia, an autonomous Spanish region, announced early regional elections for May 12. This was another blow for the socialist government, already forced to hold early elections in July 2023 following a leftist defeat. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez managed to stay in office. The Catalan regional elections also saw a socialist victory, with former Health Minister Salvador Illa winning 28% of the vote. This result is historic, as socialists surpassed the separatists. However, forming a parliamentary majority remains a challenge.
On June 9, Bulgaria held its sixth early legislative elections in three years, organizing both European and legislative elections. Stuck in an extended political crisis, the government struggles to convince locals and expatriates. Bulgaria faces a population exodus, weakening the country. Politicians regularly call for the return of Bulgarian expatriates, but the ongoing political stalemate and deceptive economic growth make it challenging for them.
The latest legislative elections brought conservatives to the forefront with 23.7%, but only a third of voters participated, marking a historic abstention. Observers fear a seventh vote in the autumn. Former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov, leader of the conservatives, will face challenges in forming a majority. Despite being an EU member since 2007, Bulgaria is not yet part of the Schengen area or the Eurozone. Economic recovery (GDP at -4% in 2020, +1.8% in 2023) and low unemployment (4.3% in 2023) mask deep regional disparities. Bulgaria remains the poorest country in the EU.
Should we expect more early elections?
Netanyahu's increasing isolation
Part of the Israeli population continues to call for early elections. In April, over 100,000 protesters gathered in front of the Israeli Parliament, demanding Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation and early elections. This sentiment is echoed by Israeli expatriates, who often oppose Netanyahu. In May, Arnon Bar-David, head of the Histadrut, Israel's powerful labor union, called for early elections. Increasingly isolated, the Prime Minister faces defections. On June 9, Benny Gantz (Netanyahu's main opponent) announced his departure from the emergency government formed by Netanyahu following the Hamas attack. However, no new elections seem imminent.
Nova Scotia reiterates its need for foreign workers
Will we see early elections in Nova Scotia? With its recent measures to limit immigration, Canada worries potential expatriates and struggles to revive its economy. Some analysts even predict a recession this year, though they assure it will be brief and point out that labor shortages remain a reality. They forecast a 0.7% drop in real GDP (at constant prices) in 2024 if Canada further reduces the number of expatriates (international students and temporary workers).
Nova Scotia, in particular, needs “thousands of skilled foreign workers,” projecting the creation of 10,000 jobs by 2030. However, Nova Scotia is currently making headlines in politics. Tim Houston, Prime minister and leader of the Progressive Conservative Party, hinted at possible early elections before the official date of July 15, 2025, citing a need to hear the "voice" of the voters but without providing further details. His comments have caused confusion among politicians.
Scholz holds on
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will not follow the path taken by French President Emmanuel Macron. Despite a significant setback for his party in the European elections (13.9% of the vote, compared to 30% for the winning Christian Democratic Union (CDU) allied with Bavaria), Scholz remains steadfast. He quickly quashed rumors of early elections, asserting that the next elections will be held as scheduled in the fall of 2025, despite calls from some opponents. The Chancellor acknowledges his party's disastrous results but refuses to take the same risk as Macron.
Early elections: What changes for expatriates?
The impact of these early elections on immigration will depend on the results. In countries where the far-right makes unprecedented gains, immigration laws could be tightened. In France, for instance, there is a risk that the far-right eliminates expatriates' right to receive social benefits. On the other hand, the left-wing coalition, also seen as a potential governing body, promises to repeal the immigration reform. Predicting the effects of early elections remains challenging. Attention is also on other scheduled elections, particularly the U.S. presidential election.
