The September 2024 report from the OECD highlights a stronger-than-anticipated economic recovery, evidenced by rising salaries, particularly in the service sector. This development poses the question: Is this an opportune time for moving abroad? Due to persistent labor shortages, key expat destinations increasingly rely on economic immigration, even amid stricter immigration regulations. What does this mean for prospective expats in terms of potential salary gains?
United Arab Emirates (UAE): Potential decline in expat salaries
The Robert Half Salary Guide 2025 suggests a potential decrease in expatriate salaries within key sectors such as finance, accounting, and human resources. The guide forecasts a 2.07% reduction in finance and accounting salaries, with entry-level chief accountants expecting to earn between $60,000 and $73,000 annually and financial managers between $66,000 and $82,000, with the higher salaries typically found at larger companies. In human resources and administration, salaries may drop by about 1.24%, and in technology, a modest decrease of 0.05% is anticipated.
This slight downturn is attributed to the increased influx of foreign talent, with immigrants constituting over 90% of the population. This not only fuels economic growth but also heightens competition both within the UAE and on a global scale, exacerbated by the globalization of trade and the rise of remote work, which expands the candidate pool. Additionally, the UAE's welcoming immigration policies, including the expansion of the Golden Visa to new groups such as high school and university students and teachers, contribute to this trend. It's also crucial to consider the effects of Emiratisation (job nationalization), although less pronounced than in Kuwait, and the looming presence of artificial intelligence (AI) in shaping employment trends. As companies adapt, the necessity to offer high initial salaries and benefits to secure qualified candidates diminishes.
Salaries 2025 in the UAE: An optimistic forecast
While Robert Half predicts a slight decrease in salaries within certain sectors in the UAE, Mercer's annual Total Remuneration Survey (TRS) presents a more positive outlook, forecasting a salary increase of approximately 4% across all sectors. This optimistic view is supported by several factors, including robust economic growth, active corporate recruitment projects, and the UAE's ongoing attractiveness as a business hub.
According to the latest report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), published on October 22, the UAE's economy is expected to grow by 5.1% in 2025, which marks a 1% increase from the previous year. The Mercer survey indicates that nearly 30% of companies are planning to expand their workforce. To attract and retain talent, these companies are prepared to offer higher salaries. This trend spans multiple sectors including real estate, finance, construction, energy, technology, and retail and wholesale. However, it is the industrial sector, particularly consumer goods (4.5%), life sciences (4.2%), technology (4.1%), finance, and energy (both at 4%), where the most significant salary increases are anticipated. The Mercer report further notes that these salary hikes are expected to benefit employees at all levels within companies, ensuring a broad-based rise in compensation.
Salaries 2025: Salary trends in major expat destinations
The case of the United Arab Emirates underscores the complexities of predicting salary trends nationally. Analysts point out that while seemingly contradictory, the reports by Robert Half and Mercer may both hold validity. Even as the UAE experiences robust economic growth, it also contends with escalating living costs, particularly in expat-heavy cities like Dubai and Abu Dhabi. Increased competition and rising housing expenses are prompting some expatriates to seek opportunities in other countries. What, then, are the salary expectations in other key expatriation destinations? This question remains crucial as global mobility trends evolve, influencing both individual career paths and broader economic landscapes.
Canada
Following a modest growth rate of 1.4% in 2024, Canada's economy is projected to strengthen, with an expected growth rate of 2.4% in 2025. According to insights from recruitment firm Robert Half, about 32% of Canadian companies are preparing to raise salaries in the coming year. Furthermore, to attract and retain skilled workers, 37% of employers are planning to offer "flexible work arrangements." The demand for flexibility is evident, as 41% of the workforce shows a preference for hybrid work models, and 32% seek greater flexibility in their work environments overall. Notably, 60% of companies anticipate implementing salary increases, indicating a positive trend towards enhancing employee compensation and work-life balance in response to evolving workforce expectations.
Australia
Mercer's analysis reveals that the patterns seen in 2024 are expected to persist into 2025. After increasing salaries in various sectors in 2023, with the exceptions of insurance and chemicals, companies experienced a downturn in 2024. This downturn led to a reevaluation of salary budgets in response to economic challenges. Specifically, Australia's economic growth decelerated to +1.2% in 2024, a drop of 0.8 percentage points from the previous year. However, the overall activity rate has improved, reaching 67.1%, largely driven by immigration. In terms of salary expectations, a financial manager in Australia can anticipate earning between AUD 140,000 at the entry-level and AUD 180,000 for more experienced profiles annually. This salary range reflects the economic conditions and the labor market's response to ongoing fiscal adjustments.
United Kingdom
According to the latest report from Robert Half, nearly half (46%) of British companies are preparing to raise salaries as a strategy to attract and retain talent. Additionally, 21% of employers are already implementing performance-based salary increases, responding to a clear demand from the workforce. Workers themselves are increasingly proactive about their compensation, with 30% indicating they would consider switching professions for a salary boost of 20%.
United States
In the United States, salary negotiations are becoming a central focus for job seekers and employers alike. According to Robert Half, 44% of job seekers are expected to be more assertive in negotiating their salaries in 2025. However, there is concern among 48% of managers that they may not be able to meet all candidates' expectations due to budget constraints. Despite these concerns, salary growth has been notable, with an increase of approximately 6% from September 2023 to September 2024. Projections for 2025 suggest a further salary rise of around 4%.
However, this salary growth is tempered by inflationary pressures. Inflation, which saw a resurgence in November to 2.3%, is diminishing the real impact of salary increases. Additionally, policy measures introduced under President Trump are causing apprehension about potential new inflationary spikes.
International career outlook for 2025
As we look towards 2025, it's important to understand that current projections of salary increases or decreases are just that—projections. They are subject to refinement as economic conditions evolve. These conditions can vary greatly by industry, company, and job position, impacting the accuracy of early predictions.
Salary continues to be a primary motivator for moving overseas, but the demand for hybrid work arrangements is quickly gaining traction. Across key expat destinations, there is a clear preference for flexible work schedules, typically comprising 1 to 2 days of remote work per week, with the remainder in-office. This shift is significant, as prospective expatriates are increasingly favoring job offers that include options for telework, allowing them to better manage their international careers.
However, expatriates must also navigate the growing influence of artificial intelligence (AI) in the workplace. The year 2025 is expected to bring further advancements in AI across various sectors, potentially reshaping job roles and skills requirements. To remain competitive, expatriates will need to engage with ongoing and, increasingly, online training opportunities. These programs are anticipated to see significant growth, providing the skills necessary to thrive in an evolving global job market.
