How much downfall in the real estate market fall do you expect?

In Manila….. all main contractors and building development are local companies…..

you mentioned 35 % dropped per sqm price …. I don’t see it here NCR.

top locations are still selling…. Main issues are the low cost building suffering from lagging sales…. But not sure they are offering bargains as well

The market in China is totally collapsing
-@Lothar Scholz

https://tradingeconomics.com/china/housing-index

A downturn?

That doesn't mean a few big companies aren't in trouble, and them snuffing it would likely bring a little common sense to the housing market, but it isn't a collapse as such (yet).

Sensationalism from the press, especially rubbish press with an agenda, doen't mean a situation is as real or localised to a single country, as they claim/suggest.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/money-mentor … in%20June.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-14/ … /102028862

https://www.bankrate.com/real-estate/is … ash/#crash

In other words, it's all over the world.

Don't worry, there are plenty of utter cretins out there for the housing markey to exploit with supposed bargains that are actually way overpriced, but dropped a little so the unthinking see a great deal.

@Tdionnet You sound like many of the UK/USA guys in June 2007 before they started to cry and moving back to their home countries. 

Lothar Scholz said . . . .The market in China is totally collapsing

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Fred replied . . . .

https://tradingeconomics.com/china/housing-index
A downturn?

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I replied . . .

(1) China has 65 million empty homes.

(2) Millions of homes in foreclosure.

(3) Country's largest home construction company (Country Garden) near bankruptcy.

(4) Same for Evergreen, the second largest.

(5) The Chinese people invest in real estate, not the stock market. They pre invested in future construction when there was a boom. That boom is now an implosion.

Meanwhile . . .

(1) In the states many homeowners are caught in a Catch 22.

(2) Many homeowners have 3% mortgages.

(3) They would like to sell but do not want a 6% mortgage for a newer home.

(4) This artificially keeps a shortage of new homes on the market.

Sometimes its happening faster then you think. Once started an economic collapse is always rolling like an avalance.

Evergrande just declared bankruptcy today. This will serious effect at least a handful of developments in Manila and Davao that i personally know to be done by Evergrande.

I tried half an hour to google any information about projects of evergrand outside of china but as usual when you try to find specific information about chinese companies,  the results are minimal to non existant.

@Lothar Scholz

SOON TO RISE

Yeah and this premise even applies to Condo's, especially Philippine condo's that are heavily leveraged & loaded with 'transaction' costs :

"What goes up must come down"

@Lothar Scholz
SOON TO RISE


Yeah and this premise even applies to Condo's, especially Philippine condo's that are heavily leveraged & loaded with 'transaction' costs :

"What goes up must come down"
-@Lotus Eater

Lotus Eater - Does that mean I should consider planning ahead for my 2nd 21st birthday celebrations. I m 61 now.

@Lothar Scholz
SOON TO RISE


Yeah and this premise even applies to Condo's, especially Philippine condo's that are heavily leveraged & loaded with 'transaction' costs :

"What goes up must come down"
-@Lotus Eater
Lotus Eater - Does that mean I should consider planning ahead for my 2nd 21st birthday celebrations. I m 61 now.
-@Cherryann01

Dream on. But if you're celebrating with a pretty Filipina who knows her 'stuff' you'll probably, ahem, stay up all night.

Lothar Scholz said . . . .SOON TO RISE

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Lotus Eater replied . . . . "What goes up must come down"

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Cherryann01 then commented. . . . . Does that mean I should consider planning ahead for my 2nd 21st birthday celebrations. I m 61 now.

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A 61 year old gentleman went to his Doctor and explained his thing does not rise anymore. The Doctor said we have a cure for that and demonstrated the cure in his office to make sure it works.

The doctor said the the cure only works three times. When you want it to rise you say Toot Toot, when you want it to go back to normal, you go Toot Toot again.

So in the Doctors office the gentleman went Toot Toot and it was as hard like he was 21 again. He went Toot Toot and it returned to it's 61 year old condition.

On the way home he got stuck at train gate crossing, the train went Toot Toot and he was 21, then another train came in the opposite direction and went Toot Toot and it was 61 again.

He was worried now as he used up two chances.

When he got home when he was all set, he said to his lover Toot Toot and it was 21 again, she responded what's this Toot Toot stuff and he was 61 again.

The Condo market esp in Cebu and Manila  is way overbuilt.  I know several people stuck with luxury condos in both cities.  No thanks. We saw the same thing happen in the US during the last recession. I would not buy a condo at this time unless you got it at a cash fire sale price.  Property (land) esp in the province can be gotten at good prices.  I believe it is a good long term investment. My wife just bought two lots in Dumaat a good rate per sq meter. 

I'm no expert by any means. Nor am I really educated in the subject. However, the power of research and observance is strong. I called the mortgage housing crash in Las Vegas 6 months before the stock market crashed. Being in Las Vegas and watching my surroundings, listening to all the buyers (pre-crash, housing peak) made it obvious that big lenders like Washington Mutual would get broke hard. My uncle was managing my mothers life savings in the market and was heavy into Washington Mutual. I called him and told him to get out with a loss while prices were still @$50 odd dollars per share. The sob said I didn't know anything and bought more! By the time he handed the reigns to me the crash was in full force and WM was below $15, which I sole instantly. It eventually fell to less than $1. The largest mortgage lender in the country upside down.

I couldn't tell you the year, 10-15 years ago? before or after the crash, I don't even recall. But I was watching a documentary about a weird housing and economic befuddlement being run by the current Chinese leader and builders. They were creating entire cities on a whim. Basically China started master planning and building skyscraper condo's and communities with zero, yes zero demand. They propped up builders and workers to build these "towns or cities" in what we here would call the province. The documentary makers were able to through hidden camera (Communism doesn't offer freedom of speech/film) film these totally built out skyscraper condo buildings, some still in construction phases but with apartments finished, etc. They were also able to quietly speak to some of the very few residents. Like less than 10% occupancy, no work available etc.  So think about it. China built this mini economy on a massive scale speculative housing build. "look at all the building we're doing"! Eventually, an economy like that gets broke.

Larry said . . .I'm no expert by any means. Nor am I really educated in the subject. However, the power of research and observance is strong. I called the mortgage housing crash in Las Vegas 6 months before the stock market crashed. Being in Las Vegas and watching my surroundings, listening to all the buyers (pre-crash, housing peak)

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Just adding on to what Larry said. . . .The Las Vegas Real Estate bubble lasted for many years. Las Vegas was the largest growing city in the US for 10 years straight. Houses & Condo's were priced out of this world.

People bought on the bigger fool plan, "buy now and sell to a bigger fool". People were draining the equity out of their homes with second mortgages.

Another problem Californians were selling their homes and moving to Las Vegas, they drove the market higher with their pockets flush full of cash.

At the bottom of the housing bust $350K homes were selling for $150K.