Major Tax Reform to Facilitate Investment?

The November 2023 tax reform bill is supposed to reduce the number of taxes from 5 to 2.



https://finance.yahoo.com/news/brazil-a … 14565.html



According to the article, the benefit of reducing the number of taxes is to simplify the tax collection system - which is a good attempt at streamlining.



Questions:


a)  Will this not drive more businesses into the "hidden economy"?


b)  Can the RFB implement this bill?  In other words, is there enough existing transparency in the system (i.e. do we know and track all paid taxes at existing 5 levels) so that taxes consolidation can be successfully done at state and federal levels?


c) It's good that this harmonization will start taxing previously exempt goods such as luxury vehicles - but will this work?


d)  Will the effective net taxes be lower?  For investment to increase (and GDP to increase), net taxes should be lower.  From the article, it appears that this is the goal but will this distribution of taxes over a larger tax base even be possible given the various powerful special interest groups?



I don't know any of the assumptions of the article, but I know the people on the ground feel the effects of taxation.   What do you all think about this new tax reform bill?

12/17/23 @Pablo888  I don't have answers to everything, but I'll start.


a.)  No idea, but I would doubt it.  I don't think that there are any incentives for businesses that are now in the informal economy to formalize their operations in this change, but not many for currently legit businesses to try to go off-grid, either.  It sounds like it's more a reorganization and rationalization than anything else, as I understand it.


b.) They should be able to:  they collect enough data.  The big change, and the big positive from my point of view, is the promised end of double taxation, i.e., tax-on-tax.  I'm most familiar with this on the import side, from my consultant days.  The current breakdown is pretty awful:


  • Imposto de Importação -- II -- "normal" tariff -- assessed on the declared value of the item.
  • Imposto sobre Produtos Industrializados -- IPI -- assessed on declared value PLUS II
  • PIS -- a social security tax -- assessed on declared value
  • COFINS -- another social security tax -- assessed on declared value
  • ICMS -- the main source of state and local revenue -- assessed on declared value PLUS all the taxes above.


Knowing the formula is how, when you buy anything from Amazon US to ship here, they can estimate the taxes pretty well, and why the taxes easily reach and surpass 100% of the product price.


c.) It's a great idea, but everything will depend first on the implementing regulations, and then on zeal in enforcement.  TBD.


d.) A stated objective of the reform is to be revenue neutral, so it's hard to see how taxes can go down.  On the other hand, if double taxation is really going to be eliminated [see (b.) above], taxes HAVE to go down.  The state governments certainly realize this, which is why their resistance has been so brutal, and why the implementation period looks like it will be strung out so long.  They'll be the big losers, as the reform is structured now. 

@abthree


It looks like the bill will help the economy in general by decreasing the complexities and duplications.


In other words, this is a positive move forward for the country.  I like it.


Thank you for your insights.

Long overdue and pushed by international investors. A fodder for discussions, every average Brazilian feels being taxed to death. 


They blame car prices on taxes. Well, actually, you can't find affordable cars in North America anymore.  You still can get a 1.0 three or four banger for USD 15,000 here.   People here complain for no reason .  Maybe the low local buying power.