Consequences of Trump as US President.

We have clues from his last try, but his words mean nothing as he lies so much.

I'm other words, we are but guessing

@FindlayMacD

Yes he is a classic isolationist Findlay. You don't have to be an economist to realise that as soon as you start putting up protectionist barriers to trade you end up shooting yourself in the foot or in Mr T's case his big mouth.

American consumers of electric vehicles (whether we like them or not are coming) for example will pay more due to less competition from China. The Americans showed the sclerotic protectionist economies of Europe that competition worked in the 70's. Competition allocates resources to the most efficient manufacturer which lowers prices in the long run. Oh big surprise that Elon Musk supported Trump. JP Morgan Chase, a respected American bank has forecast that if he implements his proposed tariffs that US GDP will suffer by point 5% over the next five years.

Moreover immigration (if controlled and yes it has to be tempered) is actually a good thing for any nations economy as immigrants tend to be more productive. Western nations are ageing fast. The US is an outlier because of immigration. The Maga's in years to come when they reach retirement will be grateful that the Mexican wetback is contributing to Uncle Sam's (their) state pension pot.

Mr T is an ignorant hothead on the loose of the most powerful nation in the world. If, and its a big if, he does break away from NATO it will not be in anyones interest in the long term. Yes you are right this election result could potentially be catastrophic for the world order.

@FindlayMacD

Funny how these things didn’t happen during his first term? Sorry I and 57 other million people don’t subscribe to your or Lotus Eaters alarmist views.  You sound just like Kamala.

LOL, yes to all of the above,,,,,, what some people can't see is simply why China is the second largest economy on our planet,,,,, perhaps soon the largest if heads aren't pulled in.

We purchased a Chinese car because it had European refinements like our Merc and Peugeot in Australia and at Chinese prices. Our stand alone solar system is From China and Taiwan,,,,, buy from Europe or the USA and the prices jump 40 to 50%. No brainer.

There are no automotive manufactures left in Australia,,,,, we couldn't compete.

The only way you can compete with cheaper prices is to sharpen your pencil with innovations and production costs. Tariffs on imported goods are paid for by the end consumer, further taxes, the people pay.

Competition and many countries can't man up.

OMO.

Cheers, Steve. 

China

I saw a really interesting documentary about their electronics industry.

They don't protect their intellectual property, seeing a cheaper copy as their fault because they didn't design and market their new products quickly enough, or made them significantly better.

In other words, pure capitalists with less need for lawyers.

That attitude promotes very rapid innovation.

The US has bugger all chance of beating that.

@Fred

Contrary to many Expat readers perceptions the US economy is performing well. The prediction that China will overtake America as the largest economy in the world by 2027 is in tatters. Never write the USA off. It has one of the most dynamic economies in the world and will continue to reinvent itself. It does not need populist politicians to interfere for their own grand, vain, narcissistic ego trip.

@Fred
Contrary to many Expat readers perceptions the US economy is performing well. The prediction that China will overtake America as the largest economy in the world by 2027 is in tatters. Never write the USA off. It has one of the most dynamic economies in the world and will continue to reinvent itself. It does not need populist politicians to interfere for their own grand, vain, narcissistic ego trip. - @Lotus Eater

That's looking at growth only, but the death of the petrodollar might well destroy the US economy, and it is slowly dying.

The GBP died a slow death, but a letter from Singapore  was weeks away from the UK at that time. A WA message is now less than a second away.

The US stealing Russia's money sent a lot of countries away from the Dollar, and that might well have been the beginning of the end.

Lotus Eater said . . .

Yes he is a classic isolationist Findlay. You don't have to be an economist to realise that as soon as you start putting up protectionist barriers to trade you end up shooting yourself in the foot or in Mr T's case his big mouth.

*****************************************

Hardly. . .

There is too much of your post to comment on. When it comes to the economy it takes a business man, not a life long politician and his financial contributors.

Tariffs are good

It's a way of keeping things equal. Our trading partners take advantage of us. We allow their products to run wild, but when we manufacture stuff for export, they put tariffs on our products.

Often they subsidize their exports below the actual cost and have killed some of our industries.

By placing tariffs on autos has resulted in Honda, Toyota, Hyundai, Nissan and others to build their cars in America. Some of these plants in areas that had high employment.

Just the threat of a tariff is a good bargaining tool.

Isolationist

We are not the worlds policeman. We have to stop getting involved in foreign wars unless we are threatened.  Eisenhower warned us about the industrial military complex. The B2 cost $2 billion each all 19 of them, how much of that costs end up in some politicians re-election  fund?

Fred said. . . .

That's looking at growth only, but the death of the petrodollar might well destroy the US economy, and it is slowly dying.

******************************************

The whole world could join BRICS but to buy our products, they will have to pay in Dollars, in 2022 $1.95 Trillion.

World sales of oil last year was $4.3 petrodollars (USD). The US produces as much oil as Saudi Arabia and Russia combined. If we drill baby drill, the price of oil will drop causing chaos on the Russian economy and improve ours.

The high price of oil blew up our economy causing inflation.

@Enzyte Bob

Well said! You covered most of the same points I was going to make

The whole world could join BRICS but to buy our products, they will have to pay in Dollars,
- @Enzyte Bob

True for the moment, but tarrifs are a protectionist  measure used when foreign products are cheaper than your own.

That begs a question - Will people outside the US want to American products?

Countries tend to tarrif US products when they are targeted, so US products end up even more expensive.

What was it last time, Whiskey? It became unsaleable when it was hit by retaliatory tarrifs.

Chaos?

https://flint-global.com/blog/trump-tar … rike-back/

During the election campaign, Trump has proposed a 20% universal tariff on all U.S. imports, a 60% tariff on Chinese imports and a 100% tariff on imports from countries shifting away from using the U.S. dollar. 

Apart from the obvious bullying in the last sentence, the rest is a massive trade war in the offing.

No country can win. but some will lose less than others.

Long term, given US products are generally expensive, the US might well lose out badly.

The midnight oil will be burning for the next four + years.

Welcome to the forum Tumbleweed 2, enjoy the forum.

Regardless the winner is the winner,,,,,,,, unlike last time but in saying that the people spoke and guess what not only they but the rest of the world will suffer. The writing is on the wall and we should revise this in a few years,,,, the aftermath. In the mean time the choice is made and bickering here won't achieve a thing and I simply hope he leads the country in the right direction.

OMO.

Cheers, Steve.

@Tumbleweed 2

I woke up this morning Tumbleweed to a glorious day in HCMC sitting on my hotel balcony overlooking the delightful tree lined avenues of this beautiful city bestowed with some classical French architecture. The complete opposite of Manila.

Then the realisation hit me. Your above salient comments  reinforces the mess that America and the world finds itself in. No, you could not make it up if you tried. Bob is currently wearing his rose tinted glasses with his side kick echo chamber (Morgacj) along for the ride. Bless him.

Oh just checked my Vanguard private pension app. Up $18k. I should be smiling but I’m not.

@Enzyte Bob

I love tariffs as described by Trump. The left really has no position on tariffs except to oppose Trump for the sake of opposing. Libertarians on the right are the big problem. They say to never impose tariffs because it interferes with free trade...we should set an example. Well, China and Europe are aware of this idiot philosophy and take full advantage of us as anybody would do in their position. Clue: Idealistic values such as unconditional free trade (or pure socialism on the other end) always fail because they fail to take into account people's greed. For me and people like me, the functional term is "reciprocation". Do unto them exactly what they do unto you. If they tax our cars at 25%, we respond with exactly the same tariffs. Do you want free trade? Charge me no tariff and I charge you none. In fact, reciprocation is so correct, so just and such a common sense way to trade..there us no other way to be fair. And "fair" is important.

@Fred

True for the moment, but tarrifs are a protectionist  measure used when foreign products are cheaper than your own.

It works 2 ways, of course. There are many protectionist countries charging high tariffs on US products. You can hardly find s USA car in Europe to purchase. That is protectionist. In fact protectionism is so common globally that no one country can vksim ownership; and this of course waters down your accusation of US "protectionist" behavior. As for BRICS, do you really think it can replace a major western currency? Before adopting a currency sponsored by a cadre of countries with gov controlled or otherwise unstable currencies, don't you think the world would first choose GBP,  Euros or any western currency? And if the Euro replaced the Dollar, yes there would be big changes in financial markets. Americans might live more with a European standard of living today. Not catastrophic. I think of BRICS as a political lever, a power play on the USA and yes, it does cause some financial people to worry (not all) but certainly not me.

Tariffs

Here is what President Trump said about Tariffs.

(1) 10% on all imported products.

(2) 60% on imports from Chine

(3) Eliminate Personal Income Taxes

Tariffs
Here is what President Trump said about Tariffs.
(1) 10% on all imported products.
(2) 60% on imports from Chine
(3) Eliminate Personal Income Taxes - @Enzyte Bob

Now EVERYONE needs to ask themselves what the results of above does 6 months after implementation? Think real hard about it. I await your answers.

Larry

The USA military has been expanding it's military presence here in the Philippines during the last four years (the years of the Biden presidency) and for very good reason....... the very real threat of Chinese expansionism in the region. I expect that Trump will roll that expansion back and let the Chinese do whatever the hell they want here in the region.

When I started this thread I was hoping to make ex-pats who are settled here long term in the Philippines think about the possibilities of a Trump presidency for them here in the Philippines regardless of their normal political leanings or how they would normally vote if they lived in the U.S.

FindlayMacD said “When I started this thread I was hoping to make ex-pats who are settled here long term in the Philippines think about the possibilities of a Trump presidency for them here in the Philippines regardless of their normal political leanings or how they would normally vote if they lived in the U.S.”

I believe you and the other progressive lefties have made up your mind long ago in regards to Trump. The never Trumpers continue to spout out the same  main stream (DNC ) sponsored propaganda over and over again somehow hoping some of it will stick.  Funny how when Trump was president for four years none of your dire predictions came to be true. The economy was better we weren’t engaged in any wars inflation was under control and the immigration policies were actually starting to work.

@Lotus Eater, Tumbleweed and the other Libs simply don’t and probably never will get it.  I live and work in the US half the year and the other half spent in the PI. I have seen with my own two eyes the struggles that the everyday American worker is having.  Difficulty in paying their mortgage, high gas prices, rampant inflation, rising crime in the cities, unfettered illegal immigration and so on.  Many of you expats obviously are out of touch with what is really happening back home instead relying on your daily dose of CNN.  I feel bad for you. Meanwhile I will enjoy all of the doom and gloom predictions from the wailing lefties who simply can't grasp reality. My stock portfolio made 4k+ in two days, my Bitcoin portfolio 2k in two days.  Let the good times roll !

PS: By the way had it ever occurred to any of you why President Trump never had any criminal convictions for 60+ years and all of this only appeared when he dared run afoul of the DNC machine?

FindlayMacD said “When I started this thread I was hoping to make ex-pats who are settled here long term in the Philippines think about the possibilities of a Trump presidency for them here in the Philippines regardless of their normal political leanings or how they would normally vote if they lived in the U.S.”I believe you and the other progressive lefties have made up your mind long ago in regards to Trump. The never Trumpers continue to spout out the same main stream (DNC ) sponsored propaganda over and over again somehow hoping some of it will stick. Funny how when Trump was president for four years none of your dire predictions came to be true. The economy was better we weren’t engaged in any wars inflation was under control and the immigration policies were actually starting to work. - @Morgacj200424

Here's some facts for you sir.

The statistics for the entirety of Donald Trump’s time in office are nearly all compiled. As we did for his predecessor four years ago, we present a final look at the numbers.

The economy lost 2.7 million jobs. The unemployment rate increased by 1.7 percentage points to 6.4%.

Paychecks grew faster than inflation. Average weekly earnings for all workers were up 8.4% after inflation.

After-tax corporate profits went up, and the stock market set new records. The S&P 500 index rose 67.8%.

The international trade deficit Trump promised to reduce went up. The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services in 2020 was the highest since 2008 and increased 36.3% from 2016.

The number of people lacking health insurance rose by 3 million.

The federal debt held by the public went up, from $14.4 trillion to $21.6 trillion.

Home prices rose 27.5%, and the homeownership rate increased 2.1 percentage points to 65.8%.

Illegal immigration increased. Apprehensions at the Southwest border rose 14.7% last year compared with 2016.

Coal production declined 26.5%, and coal-mining jobs dropped by 25%. Carbon emissions from energy consumption dropped 11.3%.

Handgun production rose 12.5% last year compared with 2016, setting a new record.

The murder rate last year rose to the highest level since 1997.

Trump filled one-third of the Supreme Court, nearly 30% of the appellate court seats and a quarter of District Court seats.

EDIT: The above was compiled and posted on Oct 21st 2021. Representing the duration of Trump's time in office. I always chuckle about the illegal immigration results.

FindlayMacvD said. . . . The USA military has been expanding it's military presence here in the Philippines during the last four years (the years of the Biden presidency) and for very good reason....... the very real threat of Chinese expansionism in the region. I expect that Trump will roll that expansion back and let the Chinese do whatever the hell they want here in the region.

***********************************

This poster must be a soothsayer, did he predict the winner of the election?

The real fight is about oil and the freedom of navigation. The following countries also have their claim besides China. Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam are all concerned. Most of all they are too weak to do anything about it without the US.

The US claims they will defend Taiwan from the Chinese and yet recognize Taiwan as a part of China. The US buildup in the Philippines is a convenient location for a deterrent  against China's expansion of the south seas.

Now the average Filipino doesn't give a hoot and is not concerned, but it sure helps the economy.

@Morgacj200424

I wonder what the average IQ is of a Trump supporter?

No need for you to answer that one Morgac

@Enzyte Bob

Here's an interesting China-Philippines related thing to think about.  While Pogos began their operation in the Philippines in 2003, they went vigorous starting in 2016 when the administration of then President Rodrigo Duterte relaxed the country’s internet gambling policies with consideration to revenue and creation of more jobs for Filipinos.

Now Marcos has put a stop to POGO's because of all the illegal Chinese workers, human trafficking etc including the accused Alice Guo Chinese Spy/Filipino impersonator. Arrests and closures seem to happen weekly lately. Fewer Filipino's are happy about Chinese involvement in anything Philippines on a daily basis. They're far more welcoming to USA. 

I find it very interesting that we have all these people talking about how great tariffs are. But not a single one of you has responded to my post #19. Economic geniuses abound. yes, I know I'm pissing some off. I really don't care. My goal is to make you really think. "what happens after"?

I find it very interesting that we have all these people talking about how great tariffs are. But not a single one of you has responded to my post #19. Economic geniuses abound. yes, I know I'm pissing some off. I really don't care. My goal is to make you really think. "what happens after"? - @Larry Fisher

I think libertarians have had their say for far too long regarding tariffs. That resulted in the USA being screwed beyond belief.  Now it's time for common sense to take hold.

I find it very interesting that we have all these people talking about how great tariffs are. But not a single one of you has responded to my post #19. Economic geniuses abound. yes, I know I'm pissing some off. I really don't care. My goal is to make you really think. "what happens after"?  - @Larry Fisher
I think libertarians have had their say for far too long regarding tariffs. That resulted in the USA being screwed beyond belief. Now it's time for common sense to take hold.
- @danfinn

Your lack of education is showing. Do you know what a libertarian is? What have they ever stated with any muster or power behind it about tariffs? You seem incapable of answering a direct question. Or at least your opinion and thought on the question.

Here, I'll try again. What happens as a result of those tariffs?

@Lotus Eater

Wow now we are down to insults! Pretty typical for Libs when they run out of substance! 

@Lotus Eater Wow now we are down to insults! Pretty typical for Libs when they run out of substance! - @Morgacj200424

where is the insult?

I actually have LOTS of substance to add to the conversation. But I chose to ask a question to which NOBODY has endeavored to answer...but they all support the move! say what?

Edit: BTW I voted for Reagan ... TWICE, I voted for Bush's, I did NOT vote for McCain because of his VP choice and instead did not vote. And I actually think Obama did a fine job. He got Bin Laden, when others didn't. And he didn't START any wars based on false b.s.

https://www.piie.com/publications/polic … -americans

https://news.gsu.edu/2024/10/15/are-tar … e-economy/

Trying to find politically neutral opinions from ACTUAL financial experts is hard work,

Most of the pro side are identifiable as right wing, as most of the anti are from the left.

In other words, common sense and reality have been buried under the weight of political BS.

Now to the next problem - Whatever results we get from these taxes, those same political spin machines will put their version out so the vast majority of people will never know.

Here's the real mess - If Trump taxes do mess up the US economy, it's the people of America who suffer. Sadly for them, the majority will drop blame on whichever political party they dislike rather than actually listen to anyone who knows.

The level of stupidity is stunning.

Guys it matters little as the people have spoken,,,,, as we do no matter country. My only concern is who picks up the tab for all these tariffs? Yes the consumer, what was a hundred bucks will be 120 and the extra cost is not tax deductible and goes into treasuries pocket and the down side will be the retaliatory tariffs imposed by other countries and paid for by whom? Yes the average punter.

Trade wars and tariffs only hurt the people and mostly those that can least afford the higher prices.

Australia has suffered Chinas retribution when the then government called into question their role with Covid 19,

200% tariffs on our wines, major hits on the beef and crayfish industries, many others, it was costly but Australia fought back and found new markets/diversified and recently most of those tariffs were lifted and guess who still suffers? The Chinese people because we can't supply their needs as new markets opened up for producers from civilized countries, like always Australia has learnt to never put all the eggs in one basket.

Sadly for US citizens when the 100 buck microwave dies? Now it will be 120 bucks. Is Tesla going to build all its cars in the US to avoid tariffs and keep the price down? Employ more US workers?

Pigs might fly but in the end the proof of the pie will be in the eating and as the American people have overwhelmingly spoken let's see where we are in 4 years.

Sorry for the ramble and as always?

OMO.

Cheers, Steve.

@Fred

So what I suggest is we look at HISTORY rather then rhetoric. It also doesn't take a masters degree in economics to understand if one just keeps it simple to the math. We first need to understand however, that the main "theory" and the one "everyone" jumps on FOR tariffs is to "create an even playing field" for our US manufacturing. That means there has to actually be a like industry. This is massively important to remember.

Before the math, let me give a little TRUE story about a particular Tariff that actually was extremely beneficial. I will not have the years correct, as I'm not looking it up. I'm going by memory because I was so closely involved in the industry. And my numbers won't be exactly accurate, but they will in fact give you an idea of what happened and the results.

In the early 1970's Japanese motorcycle started arriving in the USA in large numbers. Initially not large displacement motors but that changed. They were making motorcycles in the above 700cc market that out performed and cost less than the last remaining US made motorcycle, Harley-Davidson. To keep it shorter, come about 1982 or 83, Reagan, at the request of HD imposed a 45% tariff on imported motorcycles in the 700cc and up (Heavy) range. HD had lost so much market share, from 100% just 10 years prior in the 1000cc class and up to 10% and the Japanese market had taken over. The tariffs were to taper downward each year. If I recall it was to be something like an 8 year or so tariff, with a bottom of 4-10%. But in 1987 HD went back to the administration, having revitalized the dying company and improving quality to create a new HD boom, and told the administration "we don't need the tariffs anymore".

And the rest is history.

GREAT you say! More reason for Trump to SLAM China with 60%, 100%! But think about that. China is exporting many goods that we flatly DO NOT MAKE in the USA anymore. Like Clothing! When was the last time you got a pair of Levi's that were made in the USA? Probably not since about 1978. But Levi-Strauss was a huge clothing manufacturer IN THE USA, until Congress with Nixon opened trade channels with China. The once famous NY Garment industry, GONE like a light switch flipped off. Plastics, Steel, Aluminum, pharmaceuticals, copper, rubber, fertilizer, FURNITURE, toys, electrical/electronics equipment. All things we don't even make in the USA anymore. At least not in any real amount.

USA imported $39BILLION worth of furniture in 2023. Whose going to take that up? The NC furniture hub is pretty limited today in manufacturing. Are you ready to pay $120 for your next pair of Levi work jeans? Because that's how much the Chines ones will cost with his proposed tariff.

China didn't do this TO the USA. The USA did it too itself. Along with the US consumer. The same one that shops at wal-mart every week.

The result of massive tariffs are simple. INFLATION! Nothing more, nothing less. PRICES GO UP with the tariffs. For the last few years all the world has cried about inflation since Covid. In the US they blame it on Biden. But the inflation in the US is actually down to normal and better than most countries around the world. So will the same people that have screamed bloody murder FJB and his libtard inflation just whistle in the dark when it's even higher than the last 4 years with Trump after tariffs? or will they want to hold him to account and string him up like Biden?

If the tariffs were specific to industries the US has working already and they can PRODUCE, then the tariffs become a "even playing field leveling". The problem is we shipped all those jobs overseas 40 years ago.

Sometimes you don't actually want what you're praying for.

@bigpearl You know Tesla solar panels are Chinese made ya?

@Fred
Before the math, let me give a little TRUE story about a particular Tariff that actually was extremely beneficial. I will not have the years correct, as I'm not looking it up. I'm going by memory because I was so closely involved in the industry. And my numbers won't be exactly accurate, but they will in fact give you an idea of what happened and the results.

In the early 1970's Japanese motorcycle started arriving in the USA in large numbers. Initially not large displacement motors but that changed. They were making motorcycles in the above 700cc market that out performed and cost less than the last remaining US made motorcycle, Harley-Davidson. To keep it shorter, come about 1982 or 83, Reagan, at the request of HD imposed a 45% tariff on imported motorcycles in the 700cc and up (Heavy) range. HD had lost so much market share, from 100% just 10 years prior in the 1000cc class and up to 10% and the Japanese market had taken over. Sometimes you don't actually want what you're praying for. - @Larry Fisher

True?

You forgot the mention the massive mis-management issues that caused many of the problems.

If I may ask a question - Why didn't HD design new bikes that 'out performed and cost less' than the Japanese machines?

That's just lazy, and the reason US manufacturing is falling off a cliff.

@Fred
So what I suggest is we look at HISTORY rather then rhetoric. - @Larry Fisher

OK

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-44567636

Yes Larry as is most crap we buy, point is to slap massive tariffs/embargoes on imported goods that the people want/need you need to have the infrastructure/manufacturing to supply at a competitive price from your own country.

All very well to slap tariffs on foreign manufacturers but at the end of the day if your local companies can't compete or simply don't supply the goods people want??????? The end user is the one that pays,,,,, more taxes out of their diminishing budgets.

I worry little as I am very comfortably retired and make more money now than when grafting. We help my kids from time to time and they are learning that dad is a hard ass ant the old saying God help those that help themselves. We help the better half's family but as the years go on its less and less and we see the lazy SOB's noy working and drinking all the time.

OMO but tariffs are not the answer, being competitive is and protectionism is not going to fix things to keep a country that is already wallowing from drowning.

Cheers, Steve.

The big problem the US has is easy to work out.

It has created a consumerist society, but it can't supply products to feed it - or at least it can't compete with better capitalist nations like China.

They can produce products that are better and cheaper than the US can manage, even after the cost of shipping their stuff around the world.

My personal income is nothing special - about average for an expat out here - but my personal spend is far lower than most.

I'm not a minimalist as such, but I don't much care about buying all the rubbish I'm told is essential to own if I want to be successful. My box of a car is 10 years old and looks messy, but it has a little over 70,000 km on the clock and is serviced regularly.

I'll buy a new one when it lets me down, but not until. Whatever I buy won't be US made. The things are just not competitive.

I haven't touched my salary for three months and my bank manager smiles when I walk in.

The above in mind, I'm a rubbish target for US, UK, and EU products, but I like my tech so Chinese industry still makes from me.

I'm writing this in a Chromebook made in China, and the thing has two Chinese made portable monitors on it.

All three units are several years old, are of good quality, and were very cheap.

People in western countries hardly know this stuff exists - it's their loss.

As for US manufacturers small portable monitors - Try to find one.

Innovation is a missing skill in most of the west, but they complain they can't compete so they try to block others rather than improve themselves.

It's very silly

@Fred

Interesting comment Fred. The irony is that many Chinese, like myself, are big purchasers of German and many other European & North American products yet they do not have, in the main, the disposable income of western consumers. Maybe they have cottoned on to something called 'value for money'