Be careful with doing charity

I, for one, would like to know more details about what you experienced.

Selling off donated toys by orphanages in the Hoi An region has been going on for years. And not onr orphanage, either.

One donor got smart, all the goods they donated were stamped with permanent ink stating they are not to be sold are were gifts from Australians.

Money is even worse - there is little tracking of, or accountability for, it.

But the VNese are not alone, there is a New Zealand 'volunteer' group that charges volunteers for everything including food and accommodation. They operate in the Da Nang area.

In the MeKong there are a couple of American groups who advertise as 'gap' year experiences and they again charge for everything - including for living in their shacks constructed from cheap materials.

I only volunteer my time (given the cost for some of travelling to VietNam they have already given generously). My volunteer work is in the plumbing and electrical fields where I teach Ede and H'Mong groups how to install the materials donated under national government plans.

Unfortunately the red tape involved is considerable as it means entering restricted tribal lands where, frequently, not even VNese can enter freely. I can understand why because the term 'abject poverty' does nearly sufficiently describe some of the conditions.

Many have never left their tribal lands, some have made it 60 kilometres to Buon Ma Thuot and a handful even made it to TP HCM!

In the south there are construction projects both ion and around TP HCM where Foreign charities are 'given' land, usually in fill sites, where they can recruit VNese teenagers to construct houses with materials purchased by the charities. There are both volunteer Foreign, together with local paid, skilled trades and supervisors.

The houses are awarded to deserving families, selected by the charity, at public draws. Not special treatment for connected people.

There is a Roman Catholic orphanage in Cu Chi which is home to children who have, or their parents have had, HIV/AIDS. All the nuns ask is that people visit to give human contact to the children. The risk is low - even the late Princess Diana mixed with HIV/AIDS victims.

Again: NEVER pay to volunteer; only give money to charities where there is accountability. (Example: there is a charity is HCM which is run by monks. You can even visit and see their children living in basic accommodation and receiving education. Unfortunately, the monks - and their novices - live in air-conditioned luxury with cable TV and all mod cons in an adjacent building.) There are thousands of orphans within HCM - and a British woman has spent her life dedicated to improving their lot.

Jaich, did you mean M'Nong instead of H'Mong? Or are you also doing such work up on the northwest border as well as in Dak Lak. Good posts, by the way.(yours and Dejavu's)  Especially admire the way yours pointed out areas to look for rather than naming specific charities. Those who get taken in by questionable charities are often quite militant in their defense, perhaps feeling any criticism reflects upon their judgment.

As for our household, we limit charitable activities to extended family members and a single Catholic orphanage whose director we have known for many years.

@ Dan: The information is about Bo De Pagoda which locates in Ha Noi. It is famous because that is a place for orphans and old poor people to live. It has received billions from oversea and Vietnam people. Someone told me that her boss usually donates at least 20 000$/year.

But this is the place for children which hasn't been built while the other places of this pagoda have been built from 2010 until now because those buildings are too big and luxury. children still sleep on the floor and there are a lot of bruises on their body because of mosquito & nannies which are paid 2m/month by pagodas but the real salary is more than that because there are many donors give them money per month. It is said that those orphans are brought to abroad for expats or adopted by Vietnamese family at the price from 50m/child while another children are legally brought up in the pagoda ("Legal" mean cant be adopted-pagoda policy while a child can receive many financial sources from their fathers and mothers in law)





This pagoda has had bad rumors for years but is ignored by government. The abbot's family also do the same business with some big pagodas in the north and have bad rumors as well. They have many houses, lands and go to bar everyday. (If you are curious, I will tell you the biography of Bo De pagoda abbot). Many donors was replied that it is better to give them money when they contact this pagoda for doing charity.

One girl intended to give cakes to nannies to deliver for those 100 orphans but those children cried and told her not to do that because the nannies won't give them while those products will be sold to the market if they are delivered to pagoda's storage....I cried when know many things about this place.

I don't mean all charities are bad.. Instead of that, I feel grateful for those kind heart but pagodas have changed a lot. Now it is a business and monk become a job.

Jaitch wrote:

Selling off donated toys by orphanages in the Hoi An region has been going on for years. And not onr orphanage, either.

One donor got smart, all the goods they donated were stamped with permanent ink stating they are not to be sold are were gifts from Australians.

Money is even worse - there is little tracking of, or accountability for, it.

But the VNese are not alone, there is a New Zealand 'volunteer' group that charges volunteers for everything including food and accommodation. They operate in the Da Nang area.

In the MeKong there are a couple of American groups who advertise as 'gap' year experiences and they again charge for everything - including for living in their shacks constructed from cheap materials.

I only volunteer my time (given the cost for some of travelling to VietNam they have already given generously). My volunteer work is in the plumbing and electrical fields where I teach Ede and H'Mong groups how to install the materials donated under national government plans.

Unfortunately the red tape involved is considerable as it means entering restricted tribal lands where, frequently, not even VNese can enter freely. I can understand why because the term 'abject poverty' does nearly sufficiently describe some of the conditions.

Many have never left their tribal lands, some have made it 60 kilometres to Buon Ma Thuot and a handful even made it to TP HCM!

In the south there are construction projects both ion and around TP HCM where Foreign charities are 'given' land, usually in fill sites, where they can recruit VNese teenagers to construct houses with materials purchased by the charities. There are both volunteer Foreign, together with local paid, skilled trades and supervisors.

The houses are awarded to deserving families, selected by the charity, at public draws. Not special treatment for connected people.

There is a Roman Catholic orphanage in Cu Chi which is home to children who have, or their parents have had, HIV/AIDS. All the nuns ask is that people visit to give human contact to the children. The risk is low - even the late Princess Diana mixed with HIV/AIDS victims.

Again: NEVER pay to volunteer; only give money to charities where there is accountability. (Example: there is a charity is HCM which is run by monks. You can even visit and see their children living in basic accommodation and receiving education. Unfortunately, the monks - and their novices - live in air-conditioned luxury with cable TV and all mod cons in an adjacent building.) There are thousands of orphans within HCM - and a British woman has spent her life dedicated to improving their lot.

Thanks Jaitch. I value any information you supplied above.

Stamping donating things is also a good idea but Vietnam people donates many things such as rice, noodles,.. Some of clubs gather tons of things to deliver. How about stamping on donating clothes? I'd like to hear more from you.

I think I know the organizations which charge volunteers. It is a good business as well when the owners accept being punished by God.

I support the idea about going to utmost places to do charities. I was told a nice story about a H'Mong family. One young H'mong boy had to make an operation and the hospital asked for 80 millions but this family was not rich so one newspaper helped them by posting an donating advertising. But after 2 days the boy's situation become worse so they had to make operation urgently. A charity organization knew this and flied to Ha Noi to give the young boy money but the father denied. He said " I have enough 80m. I sold everything from houses, lands, buffalo,.. ". I have also told about some other stories to believe that those people are really very honest and beautiful souls are still existing. Pouring money to a place that really value each coins of yours is better than to places which receive a lot from many sources then consider it as a normal thing.

I have also known the HIV orphanage of cu chi but I haven't visited it. Seems there are many orphanages in cu chi. I feel sad for this land.

I have sometimes seen charity ads that needs English teacher but I don't think it is a practical activity.

lirelou wrote:

Jaich, did you mean M'Nong instead of H'Mong? .

Ede (or Rhade) and H'Mong - there are still a few groups around on their 'own' land. All these areas have Cong An at the entrances to stop non-tribal people from entering. I worked in the Bahnar and Jarai in Gia Lai and Kon Tom. The Mnong are the elephant experts.

lirelou wrote:

Or are you also doing such work up on the northwest border

I was on sabbatical last year and spent four months up in Lau Chau where the LaHu hand their hats. The province is turning into a mass of lakes and dams for electricity generation. Great place to live outdoors with all the mountain vistas. And the air is great.

lirelou wrote:

pointed out areas to look for rather than naming specific charities. Those who get taken in by questionable charities are often quite militant in their defence, perhaps feeling any criticism reflects upon their judgment.

Better to let people to see for themselves with their own eyes. Money disappears too quickly whereas sweat labour stays where it's needed. My emphasis is on teaching the people to do the work themselves, so they have a trade afterwards. The national government under Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung have really boosted support for them often supplying material.

"Charity" is a good business in Vietnam 
I agree that someone/ some organizations doing real charity here. But most of them doing it as business to earn money for them and their family or their luxurious life!
Because of government policies these kinds of 'institutions' grow in a fast mode with the help of 'ignorant' foreigners and foreign organizations. We can see this if you get the long list of charity here.
Your donation never reach in real hands who need a pitiful support.
Think before you donate anything that will reach to the real hand. If you wish to travel then take a trip to village areas in Vietnam and you can find out so many poor lives and give it directly. Communication problem? That's not a reason. Many Vietnamese students are willing to take you to that kind of areas.
You cannot say that you are doing 'charity' until you help the real beneficiaries by your own hand!
Children are the top 'models' of charity business all over the world. There are so many orphanages!
If you want to do something for them, just visit them first. Then you will understand what they need. If you provide that directly, that we can say 'charity'.
You can see so many 'old people' (I want to address then 'senior citizens') on street. Why don't you buy one packet of food and give to them? Oh, there is no register to mark your donation?
Senior citizens should get preference more than children. Why should we ignore them? Many of them are ignored and ousted by their children and society. They did as much as they can for their children, family and society. After that what they have left? No shelter... no food..! In many cases their children take away everything from them and oust them from home or they are forced to go out from their home which they made by their long term sweat and blood! Don't they deserve something from us?
Just one time food will do! You can see and satisfy in front of you and get their blessing!
Do we need publicity for our donation? 

Take a look at this weeks Travelfish.com item on Burma, see how the Generals and the other arseholes who made the place the way it is now , are rolling in the Aid $'s, absolutely criminal.
   The short story is, that the Generals, etc, are now renting out building's, ( up to $1mil a year ), for luxury offices , etc, for NGO's, and Foreign Aid agencies.

Exactly !

One of the reasons I prefer to roll up my sleeves and do the work myself.
When I cruise the streets on Sundays I look for the elderly and call out to them I have "Com Chay"
I use two hands to place the meal in their hands and say,
"Nam Mo A di da Phat"
The grin I get is worth it to me everytime.

DirtyPierre wrote:

One of the reasons I prefer to roll up my sleeves and do the work myself.
When I cruise the streets on Sundays I look for the elderly and call out to them I have "Com Chay"
I use two hands to place the meal in their hands and say,
"Nam Mo A di da Phat"
The grin I get is worth it to me everytime.

I also like to feed the street sweepers and rubbish collectors including those that recycle plastic bottles and cardboard boxes.
OK they're not homeless nor unemployed but I personally find they work very hard under shocking conditions to try and keep the streets clean of rubbish. They only get 30,000d per day to live on and at the end of the month they get a months worth of 30,000d to pay their larger bills such as rent, water electricity etc.
Its a thankless job and so I wish to show my appreciation for the work they do.
I have regular rubbish collection spots that I deliver to and they always thank me for the food I provide.

Giving food is great charity!

3 years ago, the salary of a street sweeper is 8m/month. It is not easy to apply for this job.

My Kim told me they got a huge increase a few yrs back but I didn't realise just how much.
I have been doing it for so long now and it doesn't change my attitude to those workers, its still a dirty stinking job and I certainly wouldn't want to be doing it, so I am happy to continue giving them a free feed.

This job has a high salary bc this is a dirty job.. Not many people feel proud to mention about their job. However it is, I believe you have done a different thing cos I don't think there are many people willing to give them a hand or anything. Nice job anyway.

charmavietnam wrote:

Giving food is great charity!

Giving food promotes dependence.
A social construct of denigration and dependence.

The giver feels good and walks away with feelings of comfort,
the receiver has a full belly .........until the next generous donor gives food.

So you feel I should discontinue distributing free meals?

DirtyPierre wrote:

So you feel I should discontinue distributing free meals?

Hey Pierre.
Great to hear from you.
You should do what you feel is right for you to do.

What's the old saying about "giving a man a fish and he eats for a day"         ?

And then there's another saying like "familiarity breeds contempt".

I play a very small part in the distribution. We have hundreds of Viet students who benefitted from free meals during their exams and now they volunteer their time every Sunday to produce on average 2000 meals but at peak exam times 7000 meals for some of the students sitting their exams.
We then deliver those meals to hospitals, mental asylums, retirement villages (which I handle) and also homeless street people. The monk Minh Phu has taken on this responsibility and I am only one of many who assist him in this program.

DirtyPierre wrote:

I play a very small part in the distribution. We have hundreds of Viet students who benefitted from free meals during their exams and now they volunteer their time every Sunday to produce on average 2000 meals but at peak exam times 7000 meals for some of the students sitting their exams.
We then deliver those meals to hospitals, mental asylums, retirement villages (which I handle) and also homeless street people. The monk Minh Phu has taken on this responsibility and I am only one of many who assist him in this program.

And there it is Pierre.
All in your own words,typed anonymously on the interwebs.

A community developed.Not merely by giving a man a fish,but by giving a community the inspiration to learn to fish for themselves.

In the end of it,you showed them how to fish without telling them how to fish.
Hundreds became many thousands!

DirtyPierre wrote:

I play a very small part in the distribution. We have hundreds of Viet students who benefitted from free meals during their exams and now they volunteer their time every Sunday to produce on average 2000 meals but at peak exam times 7000 meals for some of the students sitting their exams.
We then deliver those meals to hospitals, mental asylums, retirement villages (which I handle) and also homeless street people. The monk Minh Phu has taken on this responsibility and I am only one of many who assist him in this program.

How about the rice? is it donated from many sources or you have to buy rice by your money?

Dejavu.dot wrote:

DirtyPierre wrote:

I play a very small part in the distribution. We have hundreds of Viet students who benefitted from free meals during their exams and now they volunteer their time every Sunday to produce on average 2000 meals but at peak exam times 7000 meals for some of the students sitting their exams.
We then deliver those meals to hospitals, mental asylums, retirement villages (which I handle) and also homeless street people. The monk Minh Phu has taken on this responsibility and I am only one of many who assist him in this program.

How about the rice? is it donated from many sources or you have to buy rice by your money?

It's 5PM where I live and Mom is making dinner.
So what's you're excuse?
Seems it is after 10PM in Vietnam now.

charmavietnam wrote:

If you want to do something for them, just visit them first. Then you will understand what they need. If you provide that directly, that we can say 'charity'.
You can see so many 'old people' (I want to address then 'senior citizens') on street. Why don't you buy one packet of food and give to them? Oh, there is no register to mark your donation?
Senior citizens should get preference more than children. Why should we ignore them? Many of them are ignored and ousted by their children and society. They did as much as they can for their children, family and society. After that what they have left? No shelter... no food..! In many cases their children take away everything from them and oust them from home or they are forced to go out from their home which they made by their long term sweat and blood! Don't they deserve something from us?
Just one time food will do! You can see and satisfy in front of you and get their blessing!
Do we need publicity for our donation? 

You remind me about a Government policy that effects many people's life until now. The government forbid 3-4 wheel handmade vehicles. Since then, many lives have been changed and get worse because they weren't supplied in the right way from Government and  the procedure was rather complicated.

I met some people as you told above in district 5. They are old and ride bicycle(I don't know how to call this bike and the internet is too slow to check a pic). They are shorter than their bicycle. Because they are too old so they cant join in Ben Thanh group or any companies to take tourists around with their bike. If they are lucky, they will earn 30 000/day but mostly since expats follow their group so their customers are Vietnamese but not many Vietnamese go by bike nowadays so they usually don't earn anything. One of them told me that they usually go to some family near there to ask for rice when their children even ask them to pay for food and shelter.

Because I used to work for an national scientific project, I went to many places. Those people are rare in my research while most of people are poor because of themselves. Most of them do a kind of business by taking advantages in human compassion. I believe Vietnamese is not cold but many things happening makes them feel doubtful about humanity.

Dejavu.dot wrote:

charmavietnam wrote:

If you want to do something for them, just visit them first. Then you will understand what they need. If you provide that directly, that we can say 'charity'.
You can see so many 'old people' (I want to address then 'senior citizens') on street. Why don't you buy one packet of food and give to them? Oh, there is no register to mark your donation?
Senior citizens should get preference more than children. Why should we ignore them? Many of them are ignored and ousted by their children and society. They did as much as they can for their children, family and society. After that what they have left? No shelter... no food..! In many cases their children take away everything from them and oust them from home or they are forced to go out from their home which they made by their long term sweat and blood! Don't they deserve something from us?
Just one time food will do! You can see and satisfy in front of you and get their blessing!
Do we need publicity for our donation? 

You remind me about a Government policy that effects many people's life until now. The government forbid 3-4 wheel handmade vehicles. Since then, many lives have been changed and get worse because they weren't supplied in the right way from Government and  the procedure was rather complicated.

I met some people as you told above in district 5. They are old and ride bicycle(I don't know how to call this bike and the internet is too slow to check a pic). They are shorter than their bicycle. Because they are too old so they cant join in Ben Thanh group or any companies to take tourists around with their bike. If they are lucky, they will earn 30 000/day but mostly since expats follow their group so their customers are Vietnamese but not many Vietnamese go by bike nowadays so they usually don't earn anything. One of them told me that they usually go to some family near there to ask for rice when their children even ask them to pay for food and shelter.

Because I used to work for an national scientific project, I went to many places. Those people are rare in my research while most of people are poor because of themselves. Most of them do a kind of business by taking advantages in human compassion. I believe Vietnamese is not cold but many things happening makes them feel doubtful about humanity.

Sock puppet much?

I tend to buy the salt. 1 ton of salt lasts about 5 months and costs about 4 million dong.
I know how could you go through a ton of salt in 5 months. Well you know the fish sauce that plays a big part of Vietnamese food. Most of it is wasted when people have dipped the spring rolls in it the left over is thrown away. Well the same happens when making vegetarian fish sauce, a major component is salt and it comes in a little bag of sauce  like all Vietnamese takeaway food. In the west we only sprinkle a few grains of salt on our meals so of course don't use as much.
But I did help procure an industrial rice cooker which made a big difference during exam time with 7000 meals per day for a week.

Yeah, many senior citizens still try to get some Dong for them or for their family, even though their children grown up and capable to take care parents, by riding motorbike taxi or cyclos. For them, it's not easy to get customers as you know most of travelers depend fast taxis or buses! You can see them each intersection corner of the street waiting for their customers in hot, rainy or cold times!

DirtyPierre wrote:

I play a very small part in the distribution. We have hundreds of Viet students who benefitted from free meals during their exams and now they volunteer their time every Sunday to produce on average 2000 meals but at peak exam times 7000 meals for some of the students sitting their exams.
We then deliver those meals to hospitals, mental asylums, retirement villages (which I handle) and also homeless street people. The monk Minh Phu has taken on this responsibility and I am only one of many who assist him in this program.

Examination time is lengthy and very stressful on students who have very limited resources. Many students travel a long distance in hopes of doing well on their exams to achieve some sense of upward mobility in a very competitive job market. These exams can last for weeks, not days. Feed the brain.....nourish the heart.....Good job man.

jimbream wrote:

Sock puppet much?

[img align=c]http://isafe.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/spn_names.png[/url]

I saw your post and found out what you meant before going to bed. I didnt exaggerate to say that they can ride a  cyclos which is taller than them. Money can be a motivation for them to do those things happily.

The good news is that one of nannies of the Bo De pagoda is going to be captured urgently because she sold children.

I know what youre talking about. I have tried to do charity a few places. Even setting up free english classes at the orphanages.  They always  ask me to pay. I found a better way for myself. My wife and I have an english center. We do very well at it. We find real poor kids that would normally have to quit school to work to help the family. We allow them to  study for free 7 days a week . To jump start their English.  . And the end of each month if they did well they get paid each month to attend classes. After high school if still with with us we will pay their university cost. I gave up on charities here.  We now sponsor a couple young girls we saved from working at the cafes. I could care less for grammar nazis. I teach speaking and listening.

crazy fuss wrote:

I know what youre talking about. I have tried to do charity a few places. Even setting up free english classes at the orphanages.  They always  ask me to pay. I found a better way for myself. My wife and I have an english center. We do very well at it. We find real poor kids that would normally have to quit school to work to help the family. We allow them to  study for free 7 days a week . To jump start their English.  . And the end of each month if they did well they get paid each month to attend classes. After high school if still with with us we will pay their university cost. I gave up on charities here.  We now sponsor a couple young girls we saved from working at the cafes. I could care less for grammar nazis. I teach speaking and listening.

Seems nice. Do you give them a chance to try their best for their life too? I think paying fee for university is a bad idea when they try to study and get a scholarship. It is not so difficult. At the same time, if they have good record for their university years, they will find a job easier.

I believe doing a good thing is not always helping someone from a to z but also helps them to develop. Sometimes, it is even as doing nothing and watch people fall down to stand up again.

I give money to orphanages that are connected to Buddhist temples and the Catholic Church.  I have followed up and never been disappointed.   I also carry a pocketful of smallish bills-10 to 20 nghìn bills for beggars I meet. I don't give to beggars if there are a bunch of them around because then I just get mobbed. I give more to the very old. I am gratified that the amputees are being taken care of much more than 10 years ago.

Most of what I do to help is personal. I have supported a young lady since she was 14 and had quit school. I saw that she was very smart and math oriented. She will get her MBA at Đại Học Kính Tế  in HCM this year. I put a young fellow through trade school to be an auto mech. He is doing quite well now. Both these kids had come from families we would call sharecroppers back in the USA. I managed to connect a convent that takes in disabled kids with a funding source in the USA back in '07. Back then they were  throw-away kids, kids who could not add to the family support and families could not afford to feed them. A century ago they would have been left in the forest. 10 years ago they were left on city streets. I do stay out of the cities now and do not meet scams and fraud like I saw in HCM and Nha Trang.

There is a woman I know in HCM, a successful businesswoman now. I met her online when she was a student  and supporting herself teaching English to the rich kids. I finally met her in person in '07. She maintains an informal charity organization that picks places and people in need then raises money via online connections in The US and France. She is Buddhist but has helped rural clinics and schools that are Buddhist and Catholic. She and her friends do Christmas and Tết distributions in the poorest parts of HCM and lots more. I try to round up supporters in the US for her.

Thanks for helping Vietnam in a your own way cafengocmy and many foreigners who are doing this job secretly. I really appreciate that as I can see some stars lighting up in Vietnam future. Today I read a newspaper. A mother had to kill herself to get money for her 2 children to study because they cant manage their learning any longer while government didnt accept to give them poor family book as their children would have more rights for their learning as well as subsidy from government. Never knew that VN is too poor until now.

Việt Nam is getting rich. I am not an expat, just a wannabe, but I do go back there every couple of years for a few months. I have been doing that since '03  to a particular small town in Khánh Hòa. Each time I return the whole area is richer than before. My buddy who was a vegetable farmer on rented land in '03 had a 200 sq ft house. He is now a security guard at the beach resorts nearby and has a house bigger than mine back in the USA. In '03 everyone wanted to go to America where money grows on trees. A few years later many people wanted to go to America where they could work hard and send their kids to University. This year I heard more people talking about the future in VIệt Nam. They are not keen to leave. They also see that future prospects in America are not so bright now.

cafengocmy wrote:

Việt Nam is getting rich. I am not an expat, just a wannabe, but I do go back there every couple of years for a few months. I have been doing that since '03  to a particular small town in Khánh Hòa. Each time I return the whole area is richer than before. My buddy who was a vegetable farmer on rented land in '03 had a 200 sq ft house. He is now a security guard at the beach resorts nearby and has a house bigger than mine back in the USA. In '03 everyone wanted to go to America where money grows on trees. A few years later many people wanted to go to America where they could work hard and send their kids to University. This year I heard more people talking about the future in VIệt Nam. They are not keen to leave. They also see that future prospects in America are not so bright now.

America's economic had a long way to develop so development does not have clear  signs as Vietnam does. Your friend is lucky cos he had a good foundation to enrich while many families do not have anything. What they earn is just enough to spend for food. Like the family I told above. Their income is 500 000đ/month while there're 4 members in the family. The fact is that from Saigon to the North, people are given more opportunities to develop than the south. (That is why I feel when I've visited many places, pls correct me if I am wrong).  Khanh Hoa also has a lot of business investment.

The North has more big foreign companies than the south outside of HCM but the whole business mindset seems to be more alive in the south and there are fewer palms to be greased.  My town was a small place, a highway town built on and subsuming several traditional villages. It was  in extreme poverty 11 years ago. Now it is effectively a city of perhaps 60k people though it is administratively divided into several separate units. There are still poor people but everyone has work or does business. In '03 there were young men sitting around at tables getting and staying drunk in the middle of the day. There are not any of those any more. They all have jobs.  Some beggars I met back then are selling stuff and live in houses now.  There are still beggars but they are selling lottery tickets now rather than abasing themselves and crying for money. I am very optimistic. If the situation with China does not become war then VN will become a modern middle class country in a generation or two more. Perhaps it will pass the US going the other way.
My friend is not so much lucky as enterprising. He said something very American to me once- "A man makes his own luck."