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What Ecuador's Finances Might Mean to Expats

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BobH

I posted on my blog some thoughts about some recent actions by the Ecuadorian government (increased borrowing from China, sending much of their gold to Goldman Sachs) and what it might mean to expats. I emphasize 'might' because this is sheer speculation, but it seems worth considering.

I'd appreciate other opinions, either here or at the blog (or, what the heck, both).
adventuresbob.blogspot.com/2014/07/a-few-thoughts-on-ecuador-as-retirement.html

gardener1

I'm more concerned about US finances. And increasingly insecure internet banking and financial transactions.

I think most of us here will be in in some large measure, dependent on US Social Security payments for our expat retirement funding. The US government can change the rules of the game any time they want, and they have done before. They can create a new regulation saying that anyone who collects SS must live in the US. I can see that on the horizon. Or they can begin means testing for SS, anyone who has other retirement income or savings will have that income deducted from their Social Security payment. So that retirees will be just too poor to get out.

Or Ecuador could do what Mexico did in 2012, raise the income requirement for a pensioners visa to a level many people cannot meet.

If the Ecuadoran economy goes bust, what would be the repercussions? A failed infrastructure likely, but you could say it doesn't have much of an infrastructure now, so that would be a fairly short fall. Plenty of places in Ecuador now with just about nothing in the way of services - water, roads, health care, transportation, electrical supply.

One thing Ecuador does have is a good food supply and a lot of it grown locally. A mild climate conducive to to food production. 1,400 miles of Pacific coastline with delicious fish nearby.

In such a mild climate with a fairly reliable food supply, how much do you really need to live?

I think economic hardship will be much harder to weather in the US than in Ecuador.

j600rr

Much would probably have to do with what type of position the expat is in. One who has bought house/condo, or who is renting, but is living well within their financial means, and has at least a little savings will probably not be very effected, if economically things were to go downhill.

Imagine the ones who will be hit the hardest will be the Ecuadorians, and also any expat who is speculating on rising real estate prices. Assuming things got bad.

Bear in mind Ecuador has had plenty of bad cycles, and during those times many expats still lived in the country quite comfortably. Would think blood, violence, and mayhem breaking out all over the place would be pretty unlikely.

OGA1

Hi, Bob.. U have made all good points...other flags... But where? Singapore... One gets residency with a business or a spare 8M.... Rents for a small apartment $4k + a month...Au? Well at least they have repealed the environment tax... uruguay? ... It seems no matter where one goes here will be issues... So investing to benefit from the downside..? Or get a place w a little land that grows everythhg one needs? What are your thoughhts on the Flags?  Hope issues in US are progressing well?

OGA1

Hello Bob H, frankly what you're addressing has several purposes being used by Pres.Correa who holds a PHD in finance & economics from Illinois. His motives are pretty obvious, he is using the American banking system to hold & guarantee his gold positions and at the same time playing China in borrowing funds against the USA whom would like better relations. Either way the game is played Ecuador's financial gains which are pretty good using this they against us approach have been solid as evidenced by the growing GDP figures.
His recent move to fund Ecuador's growing infrastructure using electronic funds is borderline brilliant.
It has no bearing on our ex pat positions, In fact if he does push this through the dollar will become somewhat scarcer in everyday business and probably increase it's value to us in buying power.
His electronic money usage is aimed at Ecuador's general contractors and other contracting agencies either doing business with or seeking to do business with Correa's people.
In other simple words he's using electronic funds like Monopoly money to pay for infrastructure work.
If they don't participate in this they won't participate at all.
This is at least if he is able to push it through his legislators which I don't think will be a problem. SO, hold your dollars and wait for the upside benefit.

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