Weather News 2018

This information is mostly for the tourist or future expats that checks in on this site.
There is a new system brewing, now being called 95s invest http://www.meteo-reunion.com/cyclone/index.php , .  Any system such as this that is located so far off near India, Sri Lanka or Malaysia is usually a system that will die out long before it reaches the half way mark to Madagascar or go south. Even Storms that develop some where in the middle of the Indian Ocean some 2,000km away only have a 10% chance of becoming a cyclone and a 5% or less chance of being a cyclone that reaches the shores of Madagascar.  Most storms travel south to die in the cool waters  of the south Indian Ocean.
We seasoned expats take more notice of tropical storms that flair up when they are close to Madagascar usually 500km North West of Diego or in the Mozambique Channel.

The tropical "noname storm" ,about 150 km from Tamatave  at this point is a blessing after a dry spell last year.  Though the Malagasy old timers who use their nose will consider the change in the air here on the  northern west coast of  Madagascar and even gossip that it is a cyclone with a name that no one knows of.  There is an excitement in the air for the rains, to grow the rice and corn.  I for one collect rain water that is clear drinking water and have about 200 liters so far. With the rains expected this Friday, Sat and Sun I look forward to this cooler weather as well here in Mahajanga.   

If you are interested in the Names of any cyclones that are projected in the future then go to https://www.mtotec.com/page-infos  They will also define the various levels of tropical depressions. 
If this storm does receive a name it will be called AVA---

Calm winds and off and on gentile rains here in Mahajanga throughout the night onto Friday morning Jan 5.

Cyclone AVA is showing....Infrared imagery showed that strong thunderstorms were over east central Madagascar and over the center of the storm's circulation, which is located off-shore from northeastern Madagascar. Cloud tops were as cold as minus 63 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 53 degrees Celsius). NASA research has shown that storms with cloud top temperatures that cold can generate heavy rainfall. 

Full story https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases … 010418.php

NASA finds a stronger Ava now tracking along Madagascar's coast   

Clink on link above to see a map of the yellow Alert

Mahajanga up date as of  one PM on Sat. the 6th 2018, January.
Rain all night , strong a few times.  I estimate 9 inches of rain from my collection pool on top of the roof for drinking water.  Winds around 10 to 15 mph and gusts up to 30 in my area.  Light rain now in the morning daylight.
Lost Electric last night starting at midnight- which means no internet since I have wifi with blueline.  Electric came back around 8am this morning.  I was up most of the night enjoying the black out, and thinking how it was hundred years ago without lights ...I figure some 60% to 70% of the people on the planet live like this most of the time..  I did have candles and flashlight when I was on the move.  The peace and the tranquility of those few hours were precious.

Monday update at 10 in the morning  Jan 8th 2018.  Mahajanga----report
Last couple of days mostly cloudy and light rains off and on and winds about 10 mph.
It is expected to be like this for the next week. Temps between 24C-28C or 75F to 84F
with off and on showers.  As you can imagine there is a damp smell in the air from all the rain the last several days but we are drying out with cool dry air now.

This is the last report for Ex Ava cyclone, now which is near Fort Dauphin and going south to its burial grounds like so many other cyclones. 
As all our wells are filling up and plenty of free water being caught and stored and saving money from the purchase of Jirama water, not to mention the cleansing  and blessing of the land, and giving a great harvest to rice and corn and making the fruits and veggies sweet......etc

Thanks for updating whether information.

Mahajanga-----
Finally we get to see some sun and dry out after almost a month of rain and clouds .  Clothes and towels damp and wet, as all houses here leak water from heavy rains.
Sunday was the first dry sunny day. Monday was part sunny with one heavy shower as well as Tuesday and Wednesday was hot and dry all day so plenty of laundry, and mosquito nets cleaned.   As I predicted the cyclone Berguitta  that started halfway between India and Madagascar will pass south. It is always the developments that are started a few hundred miles off of Diego that we need to be concerned about that will enter Madagascar and criss- cross  the country going back and forth from east to west coast to east coast and back again. Mozambique the same but usually not  more than a Cat one -low grade cyclone like AVA.  Not really sure how much it made it to a class one but a name is easier to remember than Nr-03.
Not sure why they are calling for heavy rains this Sat here in Mahajanga but very often it can just be the cool air mixing with the warm air and not much in the way of winds.
There is a 99 invest system in the Mozambique that started there and went ashore on the continent, but very often I have seen it bounce back towards Madagascar flowing, and with the air currents this time of year picking up strength from the warm waters of the Mozambique Channel.    Keeping an eye on this now as for hurricane Berguitta going over Mauritius and La Reunion, then a blow by south Madagascar well off about 300 miles.  No drama here just the facts..................

It has been sunny and dry for the last two weeks. Temps around 90 degrees 32 C.   Did have one ten minute heavy thunder storm shower from the high heat and the cool on shore breeze of the Ocean a couple of days ago.  The skies are clear out there and no rain or storms in sight, There is a cyclone out there called Cebile that has been around for the past ten days. It is located halfway between Madagascar and India and has I mentioned before storms and Hurricanes located way out there are born and die out there in the middle of the Indian Ocean as it goes south to the burial grounds of  which so many cyclones that have passed before them.
Following the links I put up at the beginning off this thread there is some rain coming this way next week, how much is yet to be determined. 
We do need some rain as many are counting on this year, rains and plenty of it early on , as corn is growing ( not so much last year)  and the hopes for a second planting of rice, easing the high prices of rice, at the moment is very high.  .   
Rainy season is officially over in April in the Mahajanga area.

Not much news about the weather over the last month. Hot and dry and rain showers that last about 20 to 30 minutes every few nights.  Just enough water to keep me from having to water the plants, and upping the water bill

As I mentioned earlier, the time to take notice of bad weather is when there is a system up around the Area of Diego.  About 10 days ago there was a gathering of wind and rain and ocean temperatures that were enough to take notice that started about 250 miles north east of Diego. This system developed into a NR06 and a couple of days ago was named Cyclone DUMAZILE though it is not officially a cyclone because it lacks the power and wind speeds but they always like to get the name out there.  It is at this point a strong tropical storm that is traveling down the east coast off of Madagascar, is is about 100 miles off  the coast and expected to go south and swing closer to Mauritius and La Reunion rather than land on the shores of Madagascar. 
How does this effect Mahajanga- not much at all- some high clouds and perhaps more rain though it will be light usually.   
It is expected to gain cyclone status on Monday?  It looks to be traveling south at a fast rate and will die off in the cooler waters.
That is the weather news from Mahajanga on Sunday march 4, 2018

I have been watching this storm activity for the past 8 or 9 days midway between India and Madagascar. Looks strong for a day then disappears for a couple of days and resumes activity for a day then disappears and now it is back again and close to Diego.   I always take notice when this storm comes close to a land mass. Madagascar is small when compared to a tropical storm or cyclone. I have seen a Tropical storm hit Diego and come out on the other side near Nosy be and become a low level cyclone in the Mozambique Channel to head to Mainland Africa to curl around and come back to Mahajanga, cross the island and almost die out to just come back to life in the Indian Ocean again and curl around to head back over the Island to Tulear and head again and gain strength toward Mainland Africa.
Here is a report I found and we should all know what will happen in 48 hours.


Indian Ocean Tropical Storm Risk
Indian Ocean Tropical Weather Outlook from the JTWC
North Indian Ocean
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 1.7N 81.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.2N 78.6E, APPROXIMATELY 180
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION REVOLVING OVER AN
ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE UPPER LEVEL (UL)
ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITH STRONG UL DIVERGENCE DUE TO WESTWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE WARM (27-29 CELSIUS) AND WILL SUPPORT FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL DYNAMIC MODELS AGREE ON TRACK AS 90B TRACKS
NORTHWEST INTO THE ARABIAN SEA. HOWEVER THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT
AS TO WHEN 90B REACHES WARNING STRENGTH, WITH GFS THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE IN THE 24-36HR TIME FRAME. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

At this point the system appears very weak , I wonder how much rain this system is holding- will know more in 48 to 72 hours.  Also at this point Mahajanga will not be affected.

Cyclone advisory
WARNING NR    NR05/07 15/03/2018 0100 UTC
SYSTEM    TROPICAL DEPRESSION
NAME    --
POSITION    NEAR 14° 1 S - 54° 7 E 15/03/2018 0000 UTC
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE    994 HPA
MAXIMUM AVERAGE WIND (10 mn) NEAR THE CENTRE    30 KT (55 KM/H)
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND (1 mn) NEAR THE CENTRE    35 KT (65 KM/H)
GUST MAXI    45 KT (85 KM/H)
CI NUMBER (DVORAK SCALE)    CI 2.5
MOVEMENT OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS    WSW 05 KT (11 KM/H)
OTHER INFORMATION    INCREASING

In case you are following this tropical depression, it now has a name
Tempête Tropicale Modérée ELIAKIM-------"Eliakim"

At 4 o'clock (Mascarene time) Tropical Depression No. 7 was located 705 km north of Reunion and about 460 km east of Antalaha. The system, which has a broad structure, moves towards the southwest west and is expected to impact Madagascar on Friday on the Masoala Peninsula.

http://www.cycloneoi.com/archives-blog/ … ascar.html

The system has since yesterday presented a broad structure type Monsoon Depression. This configuration is characterized by weak heart and strong winds away from the center. In fact, the criteria for baptism were not yet fully met.


or you can check out the links at the top of this post.

In Mahajanga there were only High clouds which made it seem cooler.  Winds did not amount to anything more than 10 to 15 mph ---> these were gusts mostly and nothing much in rain.  A few sprinkles a couple of times and one heavy rain for 20 minutes three days ago.  All is calm again and normal for this time of year with cooler temps in the morning hours. 
This storm was not a cyclone but it did bring important rains to Madagascar for all to benefit from except for some who had roofs damaged and flooding.  Homes are built cheaply and are expected to have damages when even a small storm passes.  Luckily it was not a cyclone. 
In the USA people also build in flood plains and every few years they need to rebuild again and usually back in the flood plain, same for people who build homes in Hawaii on the side of the volcano and then they are surprised when they have lava in their living room. 
The news covers these tragedies and it is sad when suffering enters our lives but the news also should reflect the need for these rains in general - Madagascar is in somewhat of a drought condition that will effect all the population.   Water wars are not pretty and I have witnessed this problem come August/ September/Oct- when the wells will run dry if we don't get a bit more rain this year before the official rainy/monsoon season ends in April.

This is the official post from the weather bureau here-----  CYCLONIC ACTIVITY  :  At the end of the season, there is no risk of cyclone activity on Madagascar for the next two weeks, despite the evolution of the Flamboyan cyclone in the Indian Ocean, according to the weather forecast.

It is the beginning of dry season here in Mahajanga.  Morning temps in the 70s and windy and cool with temps reaching in the day around 90 but the air is dry so it seems cooler.  The winds have changed which is the biggest clue to the change of climate, so we will post again in Oct when the season changes again.