Markets Crash, Dollar Strengthens!

Brazil has an export economy and its number one customer is China.
https://oec.world/en/profile/country/bra/
In 2017, Brazil exported $219B and imported $140B, resulting in a positive trade balance of $78.3B. In 2017 the GDP of Brazil was $2.06T
The top exports of Brazil are Soybeans ($25.9B), Iron Ore ($20.1B), Crude Petroleum ($17.4B), Raw Sugar ($11.4B) and Cars ($6.78B)
The top export destinations of Brazil are China ($48B), the United States ($25.1B),

The temporary loss of sales to China is the primary parameter affecting the exchange rates right now.

The US dollar index has been rising erratically since 2008 but hit a near peak last Feb 20 at 100, and has since been falling precipitously, particularly against the yen, falling almost 1.0% today.

So its a reasonable expectation for the US dollar/BR real rate to stabilize and then go back a bit the other way, later on in the year.

(im not licensed as a professional financial advisor, I just spend way too much time with it )

no your right. its refreshing to a point but also concerning with all the coronavirus scares about, north american stock markets are hit where it hurts and its 100% bear trading at the moment!

chistletoe wrote:

Brazil has an export economy and its number one customer is China.
https://oec.world/en/profile/country/bra/
In 2017, Brazil exported $219B and imported $140B, resulting in a positive trade balance of $78.3B. In 2017 the GDP of Brazil was $2.06T
The top exports of Brazil are Soybeans ($25.9B), Iron Ore ($20.1B), Crude Petroleum ($17.4B), Raw Sugar ($11.4B) and Cars ($6.78B)
The top export destinations of Brazil are China ($48B), the United States ($25.1B),

The temporary loss of sales to China is the primary parameter affecting the exchange rates right now.

The US dollar index has been rising erratically since 2008 but hit a near peak last Feb 20 at 100, and has since been falling precipitously, particularly against the yen, falling almost 1.0% today.

So its a reasonable expectation for the US dollar/BR real rate to stabilize and then go back a bit the other way, later on in the year.

(im not licensed as a professional financial advisor, I just spend way too much time with it )

There are 3 factors that affects the dollar strength:

*Supply and demand factors - this actually encompasses the other 2 below with congruence on the
  eyes of a trader. The dollar is a safe haven and therefore fund managers whenever they see 
  worldwide economic problems seek US Treasuries. That drives the demand for dollars and raises its
  value.

*Sentiment and market psychology - If someone thinks the US economy is better, they can short the
  Euro and contributes to a higher dollar value.

*Technical factors - if you like graphs then this is the instrument THE big guys use: support and
  resistance level, technical indicators. Many believe they´re cyclical. Then there´s the payroll data, GDP
  and other economic influences.

I know it became boring. So I quit.

Mikeflanagan wrote:

no your right. its refreshing to a point but also concerning with all the coronavirus scares about, north american stock markets are hit where it hurts and its 100% bear trading at the moment!

Good. I´m buying the dips with caution as I´m anticipating big bank problems in China. The govt there
just intervened - no calling in of loans... aw aw aw awoooooooo!

robal

Dollar at this time: 1 is to R$4.98! Aw aw aw awooooooooo!

Having fun yet watching the DOW fall again? Was just a dead cat bounce. The principles
of economic decline is in place. It changed for the worse and would only get to global recession to a possible depression. It should be less than 1929 though because central banks can now interfere more forcefully. And stock exchanges can always suspend trading to avoid wealth evaporation into thin air.

robal

That is 11% in one day. Dang already did wire Friday.

Texanbrazil wrote:

That is 11% in one day. Dang already did wire Friday.

Believe me. It will fall further as the fear at Wall Street just increased to 75%!

At this time 1622, the dollar is now R$5.014! Got to buy the remaining supplies...

Dollar will probably go to R$5.10 easily at the end of the day.

Bitcoin is now $4,922.Down 38.8% in 7 days. If it continues, it´s zero at the end of the month!

Don't forget oil is always based on US dollar!
I too buying, called dollar cost avg. You only loose money if you sell

Texanbrazil wrote:

Don't forget oil is always based on US dollar!
I too buying, called dollar cost avg. You only loose money if you sell

If you´re betting a fixed dollar amount every month on the two major oil companies Exxon (XOM) and
Chevron (CVX) you´re already making money as your initial cost if you buy today is much lower. Exxon lost 46% of its value and Chevron 31%. You gain more shares of any stock in the market.

Being retired from the O&G business, I do not have much exposure except utilities for dividends. Some Chevron and some Marathon down stream. It was great with stock options when blow'n and go'n. Not great holding many option when tanking. (still getting tax losses at tax season)
Any oil sold or bought is priced in US dollars around the world.

Well would this be a better market to buy my house in Brazil with the strong dollar exchange. Assuming right ?

Of course.

Mikeflanagan wrote:

Well would this be a better market to buy my house in Brazil with the strong dollar exchange. Assuming right ?

At this time 1531, 18 Mar 2020 the dollar is at R$5.192. Time to buy an apt in Buenos Aires or in your case Brazil!

robal

At 1647  18Mar2020, the dollar just went up to R$5.23 to the reais.

Be interesting if gasoline goes down here.

Prices of gasoline in Brazil going down? Are you dreaming Tex? Once it's up, it stays there. It's one of the major source of revenue in Brazil if
not the top -  on any commodity for that matter. Why? Because the govt levy taxes when and how much anytime  they so desire so establishments respond accordingly. Just look
at truckers' strikes complaining of high fuel prices. Yesterday a barrel of crude was around $22. So they should adjust now or anytime soon.Don't hold your breath for that though. Brazil has a microeconomy on gas prices so worldwide prices don't influence it at all even though they import and export the commodity.

Thanks. I was just wondering. Brazil only really has one refining operations. (Shell Sold).
I think you have a good point. I do not drive much, but wife has to do her job and puts on KM everyday.
One of our biggest expenditures.

Barrel of oil falls below $0 today! No place to put the excess oil!

https://edition.cnn.com/business/live-n … index.html

robal

Daughter in law called last night and gas was $2/g in LA...... I could not believe it. tax on gas in CA is higher than that.
Shelter in palace and now gas is cheap

Yeah was seeing in the news today that most American crude was in the negatives

Mike,

It´s now time to buy that house. At 1700 today (5pm for you civilians) the dollar against the real is 5.409. I´d like to buy now that apt in Buenos Aires but I can´t travel because of COVID-19!

robal

Yeah I'm eyeballing up in the nordeste up in Brazil here for a remote section of land. Faaar faaar away from everything lol

Dollar to R$5.528 as of 1700 today. Yippeee!

Dollar now R$5.668 against the real. Is it because of the firing of the Justice Minister Sergio Moro? Next might be Guedes. R$5.80 in a week. Anyone?

robal

Yeah I'm feeling that we are going to see a exuberant divide between rich and the poor in upcoming months. Moreso than we are currently used to!  Make sure to take care during these uncertain times.

robal wrote:

Dollar now R$5.668 against the real. Is it because of the firing of the Justice Minister Sergio Moro? Next might be Guedes. R$5.80 in a week. Anyone?

robal

This brings back disturbing memories of when I first lived in Brazil in the '70s, and the Cruzeiro was - 6 to the Dollar!  That was five currencies and six "reforms" ago.

I'm already hearing warning alarms in my brain.   If the government or the financial industry starts talking about "correção monetária" - indexing - the alarms will be screaming.

robal wrote:

Dollar now R$5.668 against the real. Is it because of the firing of the Justice Minister Sergio Moro? Next might be Guedes. R$5.80 in a week. Anyone?

robal

This is a concern. One person calling the shots bends checks and balance.
Not sure the effect of the DPF and new expats now.

I dont trust the US dollar any more than the Brazillian currency ....all the western nations have been participating in a race to the bottom, and it doesn`t really matter very much which one gets there first ....

a year ago an ounce of gold fetched $1250 US or R$4000, today the actual spot price for the actual metal, not paper derivatives, is $1800 US or R$10,000.  gold is not changing.

anyone know of any good gold dealers anywhere?

Unfortunately, I don´t know anyone here who deals gold. There are only 2 investments that you´re not required to report to the US government: physical gold and real estate.

robal

Dollar against the reais: R$5.84 today to the dollar. That´s it. I´m buying that expensive
iMac computer as a gift for my 9 year old god-daughter tomorrow!

robal

robal wrote:

Dollar against the reais: R$5.84 today to the dollar. That´s it. I´m buying that expensive
iMac computer as a gift for my 9 year old god-daughter tomorrow!

robal

i know right. just ended up getting the most expensive 60 inch ultra 4k tv i could find lmao

Yup. I´m now looking at my shopping list of postponed items...

I too want to get a few things, but do not think the idea of a large store is a good idea.

No i just ordered mine on magazine l site. Coming in 1 month time

Apple.com.br.....online. Other items at Amazon.com.br where you can even pay with boleto bancario...

robal