Black swans, grey rhinos and Xi Jinpings worst fears

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.inksto … le/3049852

Forward without the tripe and political innuendos.

OMO.

Cheers, Steve.

bigpearl wrote:

Forward without the tripe and political innuendos.

OMO.

Cheers, Steve.

Here is a famous historical example. When Henry II of England quarreled with Thomas Becket, the Archbishop of Canterbury, over a struggle between church and state, he reportedly said: “Will no one rid me of this meddlesome priest?”

Was that anything like the EDSA? Perhaps a topic for the English expat site for historians?
Sorry manwonder but I fail to see the relevance on this site and hope you can enlighten us. OMO.

Cheers, Steve.

"Religion"
OMO

A "black swan" is an unpredictable market event with extreme financial consequences, while a "grey rhino" is a large, visible threat that goes ignored....so what have we ignored?

Yep, all good as your'e the OP and I will pull my head in on political and religious trivialities that have little to do with the Philippines Expat forum. My bad for expressing my opinion.

I do take umbrage on post No.2 on this thread, failing to see the relevance for this site apart from pushing ones own barrow.

OMO.

Cheers, Steve.

manwonder wrote:

A "black swan" is an unpredictable market event with extreme financial consequences, while a "grey rhino" is a large, visible threat that goes ignored....so what have we ignored?

Groan.

Cheers, Steve.

bigpearl wrote:

manwonder wrote:

A "black swan" is an unpredictable market event with extreme financial consequences, while a "grey rhino" is a large, visible threat that goes ignored....so what have we ignored?

Groan.

Cheers, Steve.

Our Pension plans for one?


https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washin … utType=amp

Even the above post would still be classified as part of the 'black swan event'...I'm still baffled what the 'gray rhino' event will be like!

bigpearl wrote:

Was that anything like the EDSA? Perhaps a topic for the English expat site for historians?
Sorry manwonder but I fail to see the relevance on this site and hope you can enlighten us. OMO.

Cheers, Steve.

I would suggest the topic is reverent to expats as many will see their income influenced by the virus and measures against it. Many Americans are on here, so the stimulus cheques will be very much a positive, but a lot of others might well lose their income as a direct result. That's before we consider the stock market and what rapid changes to share prices does to the world.
As long as party politics don't enter the topic, I don't see much of a problem with the thread, but I would encourage caution as to the link in post #2 as I dislike trusting outlets with likely or known political bias. You might notice the whole story is pretty much innocuous in every way, but the mention of bats as fact, 15 words out of a whole page, could be a nice little slip of the propaganda pen in a story that, on the face of it, is even and well balanced.

Agreed Fred;
'Bats' you say...hmmm/slip...never realized that!

Thanks

"Political" blunders reflect the innate thinking and arrogant narrative of Certain China’s bureaucrats – which can be traced back to feudal dynasties – that the people should always feel grateful for whatever the government does or gives despite the propaganda that was supposed to be the servant of the people!"

This I can well relate to!!...as far as politics is concerned!...& I would presume a huge back-lash is going on around the world in many countries!

Still awaiting feedback on the 'gray rhino' event!

OMO

No rhinos in the Philippines.

A valid question :
Is there any scientific evidence supporting the claim that the severity of COVID-19 (or other viral respiratory diseases, i.e. MERS, SARS, flu, *rhinoviruses) may depend on the number of viral copies that entered host cells? If yes, does it mean that health care providers may be at higher risk at developing more severe COVID-19 due to prolonged exposure to patients with high viral load?

Rhinoviruses...Is that what was meant?

manwonder wrote:

Rhinoviruses...Is that what was meant?

A sad coincidence.

mugtech wrote:

No rhinos in the Philippines.

Thats what I thought....but :

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.rapple … ld-history

The "grey rhino" the large, visible threat that was ignored!....HAS finally been sited and its "charging" straight towards us!.
Watch out guys, be prepared for impact!

Whatever the medical trajectory of Covid 19, the fear and anxiety it has generated is unprecedented and will most likely mean the end of globalization as we know it. It will very likely also accelerate the isolationist trends in the USA and Europe...Asian countries will not be spared either!

OMO!

To many different causes of death for this to be just another mutation! Blood clotting is now one of the leading causes of death??

lasvegan wrote:

To many different causes of death for this to be just another mutation! Blood clotting is now one of the leading causes of death??

(OMO) Thats what I hear/read about... blood clots & damage to other vital organs too!

There is little doubt that the pandemic will result in a very large cut in international trade as a result of falling global demand, both for consumption as well for investments. Sectors such as travel, tourism and construction would be particularly hard hit!

Xi fears Japan-led manufacturing exodus from China!
The year of the metal rat returns every 60 years -- and brings calamity with it!

"It is also said that every time the year of the metal rat rolls around a big history-shaking incident takes place"

https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/ … ampaign=BA PH&utm_medium=referral&utm_content=M7-14&dicbo=v1-d2f04f4c3e469f82039a9f6a61c9dd59-00280e9c9208103b82992e13a5e43683ac-muzdmolegizdaljqgizggljumizdgllcmmydsljtgvrgmnbqgi4dgnjrg4

Well i guess you got your big history shaking today

Its not just shaking but more like collapsing news!!!
Just saying!

Singapore : The tiny country of 5.7 million people now has one of the
highest infection rates in Asia, according to official figures, due to outbreaks in cramped dormitories housing over 300,000 mainly South Asian low wage workers...this as well !!!

Business must go forward no matter how many low wage workers die! People are a renewable resource!

lasvegan wrote:

Business must go forward no matter how many low wage workers die! People are a renewable resource!

Agreed...and now we are paying for it!

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.dw.com … a-52942552

There are various ways to explain how certain political systems and their accomplices in the media have sunk into the dark waters of advocating the cull of our siblings, our parents, our grandparents, our children or our friends. But at this crucial hour of human history, those explanations are less important than asking a few key ethical questions: What are the moral intuitions that the past has taught us and on which we want to build our future politics? Do we truly want to allow our parents to die to secure a profit? Because ultimately, at stake is this: Who we are the day after the pandemic will largely depend on the choices we have made as a society during this crisis.

Yes, it is a Brave New World.

Well us that understand Newspeak can sound the alarm but so what if it falls on ears drowned in a Soma Sonata

UFO's sighted by US Navy aircraft!
Some say it appeared like a "grey rhino"!
Ohh no!!

TOKYO -- Japan's economy is expected to contract by an annualized 21.7% during the April-June quarter, its worst showing since the end of World War II, as the coronavirus crisis sends business and consumer activity into an unprecedented stall, a Nikkei survey shows

Many countries MAY enter the next wave of this virus infections “with the wealthy having gotten somehow wealthier off this pandemic by hedging, by shorting, by doing all the nasty things that they do, and we come out of our rabbit holes and realize, ‘Oh, my God, it’s not just that everyone I love is unemployed or underemployed and can’t make their maintenance or their mortgage payments or their rent payments, but now all of a sudden those jerks that were flying around in private helicopters are now flying on private personal jets, and they own an island that they go to, and they don’t care whether or not our streets are safe,’ then I think we could have massive political disruption.
“Just as we come out of our holes and see what 25% unemployment looks like,” we may also see what collective rage of the charging "Gray Rhino" looks like.”

More Shocking/Confusing Medical Info!

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/britain-coron … 34142.html

manwonder wrote:

More Shocking/Confusing Medical Info!

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/britain-coron … 34142.html

Not confusing, but it blows a lot of theories and the timeline right out of the water.
According to a piece I posted some days ago, epidemiologists are not even slightly surprised to find out it's been around significantly longer than first thought.
The patient in France had not been out of the country (according to reports) so he must have picked it up from someone in France, that meaning the other someone was in France as well - Kills the timeline big style.

The big issue here is the disease was clearly in France, and probably in at least one other country, Italy, in December (Before it was identified as a new disease). There's a better than average chance it was in a lot of other countries over Christmas when the shops were packed with people buying last minute pressies for their families - Oops.
Looking at the pieces about its mutations over the last two or three months, it's sounding like a less dangerous version of the virus was around for a while, then mutated into the various strains we have now.
Wonder what that (if my guess is roughly accurate) does to the bit about potential vaccines.

How do you Vaccine this?
Dr. Gregory Poland, director of the Mayo Clinic's Vaccine Research Group in Rochester, Minnesota, explained viral mutations using the analogy of an automobile.
"If the mutation takes out your carburetor, the car can no longer operate," Poland said. "On the other hand, if the mutation changes one spark plug, the car can still operate."
What's unclear is whether the D614G mutation slows or speeds the viral "car" or, in fact, does nothing.