Remote working is being heralded as the dominant way of working in the future as it continues to gain ground around the world. Some economists even estimate that one in 3 workers will be remote workers, including digital nomads (their proportion is even set to rise). Others, however, insist that the "good old office" is not dead. Technological advances are entering the debate, ready to stir up trouble. When redundancies multiply and artificial intelligence (AI) enters the fray, certain professions seem to be at risk.
Lay-offs in the tech industry continue
One of the leading sectors for foreign talent is shedding its best recruits. Expatriates are bearing the brunt of this "belt policy". At the end of 2022 in the United States, many laid-off expatriates in the Tech sector feared for their H-1B visas. This year, the wave of layoffs continues in the USA as in other countries around the world. In spring, Meta (Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp) announced 10,000 job cuts. The group had already laid off 11,000 employees by the end of 2022 and frozen hiring until March 2023. According to Mark Zuckerberg, this is a necessary step, as he sees 2023 as "the year of efficiency".
The end of the golden age for foreign talent?
In the meantime, global headcount is also falling at other major groups. In January, Alphabet (Google, YouTube) announced 12,000 job cuts worldwide. It's -18,000 workers worldwide for Amazon and -10,000 for Microsoft. Spotify, Uber, Snapchat, Salesforces, Netflix. Tech giants are slashing their workforces, sometimes with a vengeance. We all remember Elon Musk's massive layoffs after his takeover of Twitter. The company currently has just 2,000 employees, down from 7,500 before the takeover. In February, Musk announced 200 more job cuts.
What's going on? Not so long ago, studying computer science opened the doors to all the giants in the field. International students dreamed of an internship at Meta, Apple, or Microsoft, the ticket to a dream expatriation. They even find an alternative by working remotely for these foreign giants. The redundancies of 2022 have put an end to these students' aspirations, forcing them to rethink their future. All these jobs that can be done remotely would also be possible with fewer and fewer employees, thanks to technological advances that have been made by the talents of the tech industry. Does this mean we should bury an entire sector? No, because, at the same time, the innovation sector remains a major recruiter worldwide. And remote work multiplies professional opportunities. Tech remains an essential link in the global economy. It's just dealing with new players, one of whom could well revolutionize the organization of work internationally.
Will AI replace expatriation?
What's the point of hiring an expatriate when artificial intelligence can do the job? For some employers, the answer is obvious. Countries may be multiplying measures to facilitate the hiring of foreign talent, but paperwork remains paperwork. At a time when time is more than ever money, some employers have opted for AI.
Does the world still need expatriates?
The idea isn't exactly new. Every economic crisis raises the question of professional mobility. Expats are usually perceived as competition with the local workforce. Should economies do without costly global mobility and capitalize on nationals (especially in times of unemployment)? The question gained momentum during the initial lockdowns as international mobility slowed down significantly. But this was without taking into account the vital flow of migrants. As soon as the borders reopened, travel resumed, and the world saw the emergence of a new category of expats, driven by a strong desire for freedom after months of being stuck in their homes. This led to another boom: international remote working (digital nomadism, international telecommuting). This is a good way for companies to benefit from the expertise of foreign talent while sparing themselves from the constraints of physical recruitment.
Technological development: which jobs are at risk?
With the accelerating development of AI, the question is predominant, especially in fields where AI is increasingly proving its worth. Do we still need expatriates? Tech professions are the first to be targeted. Web developers, software developers, computer programmers, software engineers, data scientists and data analysts are all at risk. OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT, is even considering training its AI to replace its developers. Yet, these are among the professions that recruit the most foreign talent.
Tech talent isn't the only one at risk. The future could be more precarious for media and content creation professions (journalist, web editor, advertising executive, freelancer). Optimists point out that AI does not (yet?) have a critical mind. Others point to the incredible faculties of artificial intelligence, capable, in their view, of catching up with or even surpassing those of the best international writers. The same concerns apply to certain professions in the legal field (legal assistant, paralegal), marketing (market analyst, community manager, etc.), finance, accounting, secretarial work, or graphic design.
All these professions have one thing in common: they can be carried out remotely. What's more, they use the same technological tools as AI. More surprisingly, the teaching and training professions are also likely to be in the sights of the technological revolution.
What does the future hold for remote working?
However, it's still too early to put visas and work permits on the back burner. International remote working continues to grow, especially among large corporations. However, it still faces a number of legal hurdles. This is not the case for digital nomadism. These workers (many of them sole proprietors) leave their home country to do business in another country with customers who are also from elsewhere. This working model is on the rise. To make it more attractive, more and more countries are offering digital nomad visas.
The question of which professions are at risk remains unanswered. Illustrators and photographers are already sounding the alarm, worried that their work would be stolen by the MidJourney hordes. All the professions targeted by AI's appetite are demanding greater protection. Creators themselves are becoming aware that innovation risks slipping through their fingers, unless this is already the case.
