A crucial year for democracy. 2024, an electoral year, promised to be a year of high tension. Elections are scheduled in 77 countries, including the European Union, Taiwan, South Africa, the United States, Indonesia, India, Venezuela, Pakistan, etc. Billions of people are being called to the polls in the context of a continuing economic crisis and the rise of the extreme right. What will global immigration look like in 2024?
DRC: Constitutional Court confirms the victory of Tshisekedi
Confirmed victory for outgoing President Félix Tshisekedi, who will therefore begin his second five-year term. On Tuesday, January 9, the Constitutional Court of the Democratic Republic of the Congo issued its ruling. Voters cast their ballots for the presidential elections on December 20, 2023. But malfunctions (closed polling stations, logistical problems, etc.) forced the votes to continue the next day. The opposition speaks of “chaos”. On December 31, the Independent National Electoral Commission (Ceni) declared Tshisekedi's victory with 73.34% of the vote (provisional results), far ahead of its primary opponents, Moïse Katumbi (18.08%) and Martin Fayulu (5.33%). Nobel Prize winner Denis Mukwege received less than 1% of the vote. Participation was low (43.23%). The opposition denounced the fraud and appealed to the Constitutional Court on January 3, for the annulation of results, but the Court rejected his application. Tshisekedi's victory was confirmed despite the irregularities found, which, in the Court's view, had not changed the order of the results.
The DRC wants to reassure foreign investors. In July 2023, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) highlighted in its report that foreign direct investment (FDI) dropped from 80 billion dollars in 2021 to 45 billion dollars in 2022. In November, Congolese Finance Minister Nicolas Kazadi took advantage of the Compact with Africa economic summit in Berlin to defend the country's record and its efforts to "clean up" its economy. The Minister spoke of the DRC's wealth and its attractiveness to foreign investors.
Bangladesh: 5th term for Sheikh Hasina
On January 7, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and her Awami League party won the parliamentary elections. The Prime Minister had promised "free and fair" elections. But the harsh repression of a demonstration for purchasing power on November 27 was a reminder of the tense climate. Human Rights Watch reports that 5,500 people were injured, and more than 10,000 were arrested during the demonstration. The main opposition party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), claims that more than 16,000 of its members have been arrested. It decided to boycott the elections, which it described as an "eyewash" and a "disgrace to democracy". Hasina has gone from being a "figure of democracy" in her early days in the 90s to an "authoritarian figure". Despite rebukes from the opposition, the Electoral Commission confirmed her victory on Monday, January 8. In power since 2009, she will begin her 5th year in office and her 4th consecutive term.
For Bangladesh, the economy comes first. In 2021, the country surpassed India in terms of GDP per capita, making it one of the most dynamic countries in South-East Asia. Bangladesh's ambition is to become the leader in industrial relocation, and it is emphasizing its tax incentives. In October 2023, the European Union (EU) announced an investment of 400 million euros in Bangladesh. The Prime Minister relied on her economic record to campaign for a "developed and prosperous" Bangladesh. The ambitious "Vision 2041" plan focuses on economic growth. In economic terms, Hasina's re-election is unlikely to affect foreign investors. Business is going on as usual. And so much for human rights. Indonesian expatriates are wary about Hasina remaining in power.
A new era for Taiwanese democracy and a reality check for Beijing
The central point of contention among the three candidates was the approach to relations with China, Taiwan's neighbor. Progressive Democrat Lai Ching-te's decisive win on Saturday, January 13, in the Taiwanese presidential election sends a robust message not only to Beijing but also to the global community.
Lai Ching-te, also known as William Lai, secured a significant victory with 40.2% of the vote in this single-round presidential election, surpassing his main rival, Hou Yu-ih, the mayor of New Taipei City and member of the right-wing nationalist Kuomintang (KMT), the primary opposition party, who received 33.4%. Beijing, which had escalated intimidation against Lai Ching-te, sees this outcome as a setback.
In his concession, Hou Yu-ih, who leans towards Beijing, acknowledged the "final decision of the Taiwanese people" and congratulated Lai Ching-te and his running mate Hsiao Bi-khim. He expressed the hope that they would not "disappoint the expectations of the Taiwanese people." The third candidate, Ko Wen-je, from the Taiwan People's Party (TPP), accepted defeat with 26.4% of the vote.
With overseas voting prohibited, thousands of Taiwanese returned home to cast their votes, marking a higher turnout than in the 2020 elections. Overall, 17 million voters participated, achieving a 70% turnout, slightly lower than the 2020 elections (75%).
Presidential candidates debated various issues, including housing, purchasing power, and wealth disparities. Ko Wen-je emphasized closeness to the people and support for women's causes, while Hou Yu-ih opposed economic and diplomatic ties with China. Lai Ching-te, the new president, views Taiwan as already independent and promises to "protect Taiwan from Chinese threats and intimidation."
China, dismissing the democratic vote, insists on the "inevitability" of "reunification" with Taiwan, asserting that Taiwan is an integral part of China. Throughout the campaign, Beijing warned that Taiwanese independence is incompatible with peace, implying that any move towards independence would lead to war. Despite this, the DPP and other parties refrain from advocating independence, focusing on maintaining the status quo. Many voters share this sentiment, emphasizing that peacekeeping should not be contingent on allegiance to Beijing.
Relations between China and Taiwan strained under Tsai Ing-wen, but the new president anticipates support from "more than 50 countries," including the European Union (EU), Japan, and the United States. President Lai Ching-te optimistically describes this as "a new chapter for Taiwanese democracy" and calls on Beijing to "respect the election results."
Indonesia: Jokowi's plan to ensure his succession
On February 14, 2024, Indonesians will be called to elect a president and vice-president, as well as members of parliament, provincial councilors, and local representatives. President Joko Widodo, who has been at the helm of the country since 2014 and is completing his second term (the presidency is limited to two terms), was therefore unable to stand for re-election.
But "Jokowi" has covered his tracks by supporting the candidacy of his former rival Prabowo Subianto (current Defence Minister and candidate for the 3rd time), despite being suspected of human rights violations, and by appointing his son Gibran Rakabuming Raka as running mate and therefore Vice-President in the event of Prabowo Subianto's victory. Gibran Rakabuming Raka is currently Minister of Defence. Jokowi's strategy is well-honed: still very popular, he hopes to support Prabowo, who is still leading in the polls, despite his opponents' recent attacks on his defense choices.
By supporting his former rival and his son, Joko Widodo is ensuring the continuity of his policies, particularly with regard to attracting foreign investors and investing in high-tech industries (electric cars, etc.). Like Hasina, Jokowi is focusing above all on the economy. The Indonesian economy is growing at an average rate of 5% a year. The country is stepping up its efforts to attract foreign investors and workers. In May, the government revised its visa policy to attract digital nomads and wealthy foreigners and announced the launch of a Golden Visa. In October, the Directorate General of Immigration relaxed its regulations to attract more international students. But like Bangladesh, opponents denounced the rule of a dynasty over the country. They also highlight economic disparities and even a rise in poverty since the health crisis.
United States: The Biden-Trump showdown
On November 5, 2024, Americans will vote in the presidential elections. On the Democratic side, Biden is running for re-election. On the Republican side, the favorite, Donald Trump, will have to compete with other Republican candidates, including Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis. The countdown begins on January 15, with the first Republican primary in Iowa, and on January 23, with the first Democratic primary in New Hampshire. The final primaries will be held on June 4. But will Donald Trump even be able to take part? His request for immunity, which is essential to his candidacy, raises questions. Three judges on the Washington Court of Appeal have expressed their reservations; in their view, that Trump could be legally prosecuted. As a reminder, the ex-president remains embroiled in legal cases. In late December 2023, Maine and Colorado declared Trump ineligible. The former president predicts "chaos" if he is unable to stand for re-election.
In 2016, Trump's election shook the world. Expatriates in the United States and prospective expatriates expressed their amazement. Biden's arrival was seen as a relief before concerns returned. Hit by multiple crises, will the US remain the world's leading economic power in the years to come? The same concerns apply to Americans ready to emigrate if Trump returns to power. Conservatives prefer to joke at what they consider as "empty words", often repeated but rarely put into practice.
What will US immigration policy look like? In 2023, the US State Department announced an increase in the number of visas issued in one year (over 10 million). Faced with a labor shortage resulting in part from the previous policies of the Trump administration and exacerbated by COVID, the United States has launched several measures to attract international students and talent. A Biden victory would ensure the continuity of this policy.
European Union (EU): What does the future look like?
From 6 to June 9, Europeans will be called upon to vote in the European elections. These elections will elect the Members of the European Parliament. A Parliament that insists on the essential nature of these elections, "to shape the future of democracy in Europe". Democracy is increasingly under threat in a fragmented EU. The far right continues to gain ground in Finland, Sweden, the Netherlands, Slovakia, Hungary, Poland, Italy, Romania and France. Even Germany is being shaken by the rise of the far right. In December 2023, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) won its first municipal elections in Saxony, a medium-sized town with a population of 40,000. Since then, a report published on January 10 by the investigative website Correctiv has revealed the AfD's secret plan to expel Germans of foreign origin.
The challenges remain significant for an EU that is still marked by the Russian invasion of Ukraine but also by the war between Israel and Hamas. There are also challenges concerning the EU's immigration policy and international position. Where does it stand between the United States and China? 2024 is also a national election year, with elections scheduled in Finland on January 28 (presidential elections), Portugal on March 10 (early legislative elections), Slovakia probably on March 17 (presidential elections), Malta in April (presidential elections), Lithuania in May (presidential elections), Belgium on June 9 (national House of Representatives, regional and EU parliaments), Croatia on July 22 (legislative elections), and Romania (municipal, legislative and presidential elections).
Also faced with labor shortages, the EU is reforming its visa policies while strengthening its borders, notably with the controversial use of AI. The European Council calls for "a common EU visa policy". According to the results, this election year will affect immigration, not only at the European level but also at the national level.
India: No major changes expected for the legislative elections
Many people are already predicting Narendra Modi's victory in the forthcoming legislative elections in the spring. The Prime Minister, who has been in power since 2014 and is running for a 3rd term, is defending his record and claims to have lifted the poorest citizens out of poverty. He recalls his actions: connection to the electricity network, installation of sanitary facilities, free distribution of bottled water, as well as social aid on which he capitalizes and which he intends to renew thanks to his good figures. India, the world's 5th largest economy (ahead of the UK), has a record growth of 7.2% in 2022-2023, which is impressive for a country that has become the most populous in the world. But India remains a young country that, unlike the aging powers, is counting on its young workers to boost growth. For Modi, 2047 will mark India's entry into the developed world.
Overall, India continues to offer incentives to attract foreign investors. The country wants to strengthen its position internationally. Will it use this opportunity to ease tensions with the Maldives? In 2023, India became one of the top 50 most popular destinations for foreign workers. Indian companies say they are looking for more foreign talent and Indian citizens with international experience. But some point out that India's power remains fragile and note that there are still huge disparities within the population.
The other major elections 2024
Senegal, South Africa and Ghana: the "democratic test
On February 25, the Senegalese will elect Macky Sall's successor. The Senegalese president had finally decided not to stand for a 3rd term. He has nominated his Prime Minister Amadou Ba as a candidate. The elections, like those held in the DRC, are under scrutiny from all sides. For the African continent, 2024 is the year of the great "democratic test". In South Africa, the general elections scheduled between May and August 2024 will also be a test for the African National Congress (ANC). Nelson Mandela's party is far from the popularity it enjoyed in 1994. That year, Mandela became president with 62% of the vote. Some fear new rifts, with the state still in crisis (energy, employment, etc.). Ghana is also preparing for its presidential election, scheduled for December, amid an economic and inflationary crisis.
Mexico: A new era
The situation is changing in Mexico, with two women politicians running for the presidency. Claudia Sheinbaum, the former mayor of Mexico City, is the candidate of Morena (Movement for National Regeneration), the left-wing party in power. Her opponent will be Xochitl Galvez, a right-wing senator and opposition candidate. This is a strong signal in a country marked by thousands of femicides a year and the oppression of drug cartels. The elections are scheduled for June.
Russia: The hocus-pocus of Putin
Russian voters are also being called upon to vote in the presidential elections between 15 and 17 March. A predictable election, according to observers. Faced with the limit imposed by the Constitution (a maximum of two terms in office), Putin has highlighted a text that he promulgated in 2021, allowing him to remain in power until 2036. If elected in 2024, Putin will serve his 5th term.
Pakistan: legislative elections under high tension
On February 8, Pakistani voters will be called to the polls. But the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan is worried about the elections. On December 31, 2023, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI, Pakistan Movement for Justice) announced that the candidacies of former Prime Minister Imran Khan and his supporters had been rejected. Imran Khan, who has been in prison since August 2023, sees this as a power grab to prevent him from standing again. The Human Rights Commission of Pakistan fears electoral fraud and high political tensions. The former Prime Minister still enjoys great popularity among the population. The Commission warns of the risk that the front-runner's absence poses to the elections' holding.
How will the elections around the world affect immigration policies?
Will we see a victory, even a hard-fought one, for democracy, or, on the contrary, an even more blatant breakthrough for the far-right and authoritarian parties? The new landscape that emerges from these elections will also set the tone for moving abroad plans. Tomorrow's immigration policies will be determined by the choices made by those in power. Observers are calling for the utmost caution, particularly in view of the high risk of misinformation, which has increased tenfold with AI. 2024 will, therefore, be a crucial year against a backdrop of global crisis and persistent labor shortages.
