THe impact of the new president

According to many friends of mine in Brazil, it will complicate everything beyond reason. Expect far more difficult immigration processes, increased taxes, abandoned infrastructure improvement projects, an unstable stock market, and a mass exodus of investors from all Brazil.

There are a couple of things to consider:

Does the new president have any ill feeling towards foreigners of any type? If so, that group may have issues as time goes on.

Does the new president have any positions on international affairs that may cause others to impose sanctions on either him or the country? That sort of thing tends to make life hard for expats as the hate tends to spill down.

It usually starts with the countries concerned, but commonly ends with mistrust of all foreigners.

Guessing this was the same up until 2013?

I wonder if the Real will be even more devalued against the dollar?

Id expect next to no change honestly. This is not on the radar of any candidate or party for that matter. Lula won in an broad alliance with a bunch of the center right. It’s a broad coalition and the legislature is largely controlled by bolsonaristas. Pay no mind to the fear mongering.

10/30/22 Those that know the system here, will it become easier to migrate to here or harder under the new regime?
-@ltoby955

It's very early to tell. We can't be entirely sure at this point that the anti-democratic forces will accept their defeat. That should be pretty clear by the end of the week; meanwhile anyone in big cities should follow any guidance from their embassies, and avoid any large agglomerations of people for the next few days. Assuming that eventually they will accept it -- and I am cautiously optimistic at this point -- I wouldn't expect much change for most migrants, and what change there is, should be marginally for the better. Here are my reasons for thinking this.

Relations between the Executive and the Judiciary are about to return to normal, something that hasn't been seen in four years, and that will be very welcome. This will have little direct impact on foreigners, but it will lower the overall tension in the society, which has to be good for everybody.

The two agencies most concerned with immigration, the Foreign Ministry for visas, and the Justice Ministry/Federal Police for residency authorizations, are two of the three or four most respected and professional agencies in the Federal Government. For the past four years, they have at times had to struggle for funds to do their jobs, while resisting internal attempts to politicize them. I expect those attempts to cease: during his two previous administrations, Lula was very good about appointing respected professionals to both agencies, taking a pretty much hands-off stance, and providing adequate, if not generous funding. In addition, we seem to have passed the peak of the Venezuelan refugee crisis. The Federal Police did a really good job of addressing that and staffed up to do it; if the refugee numbers tail off, that will release some of those resources for other immigration activities. Processing times shouldn't get any longer, and will probably get shorter over time.

I expect that sometime next year, the US, Canada, Australia, and other countries whose citizens are now granted visa waivers, will be asked to make those programs reciprocal and to give visiting Brazilians waivers in return. If they don't, their citizens will again be required to obtain tourist visas before coming to Brazil. Brazil's policy has been strict reciprocity since the modern international passport system was adopted after World War I, and the current Administration's extending of visa waivers unilaterally to privileged countries without demanding reciprocity was not well received in many quarters.  I don't think that this will be a very high priority with Lula, but we'll have to see what his Foreign and Justice Ministers say about it. This change, if it happens, will not affect migrants from most countries, or anyone on a VITEM visa. Aside from this, I don't expect much change in immigration regulations, and no immediate change in immigration laws at all.

Forest burners, wildcat prospectors, traffickers in pirated hardwoods, plantation owners stealing Indian lands, and environmental criminals of all kinds are certainly in for a very bad time. I expect this to be a priority of the new Administration, because we've been seeing a serious uptick in illegal land clearance and fires here in Amazonia in the runup to the election, in the fear that the results would be what they have turned out to be. Aside from the general improvement in air quality, no effect on migrating foreigners.

I don't expect regulations to change very much in any direction. For one thing, the Congress will continue to be Center-Right, and in fact somewhat more Center-Right than the outgoing one, so I don't expect Lula to introduce much new landmark legislation, nor for much of it to pass if he does introduce it. For another, his main concern will be to get the economy moving again; he talked a lot during the campaign about an increase to the minimum salary, and I expect to see action on that, including something that will pass the Congress. He also had a lot to say about undoing the Pension Reform of a few years ago, and so will spend a lot of time on that. He'll probably lose that one: Everybody in the Congress and several of the most important ministries suffered and bled for months over that before they finally brought it very painfully to an agreement, and NOBODY will want to revisit it this soon.

The basic advice for migrants is what it has always been, and now even moreso:

• identify the visa you need to meet your objectives for Brazil, and apply to your local Consulate for it in a timely manner;
• make sure that you qualify for the visa you're seeking;
• have all the required documentation, including apostilles (or legalization, for countries not parties to the Apostille Convention) and don't try to cut corners;
• report to the Federal Police as soon as possible on your arrival in Brazil to request your authorization for residency, if you're on a VITEM visa.

Do those things, and I don't think that you'll have much trouble, certainly not because of the change of administration. As always, we'll do our best to answer you questions, and to steer you to authoritative sources if we can't find the answers. And if there ARE changes to the regulations, we'll keep a sharp eye out for them and post them here.

@thunderloader

no, definitely no change is foreseen....

your statement is obviously dictated by your political opinions....

Brazil was open the most during the Lula years, I do not see any reason for changes....

I am glad personally that a stop was made to obscurantism in Brazil, even for just 4 more years....

@Michel Duce  "Obscurantism" is the most elegant description of the last four years that I've seen.  I intend to steal it, even if it is more charitable than the characterizations I usually use.  Two thumbs up!  👍🏻👍🏻

I am putting my plans on hold to move to Brazil.

Too many questions and uncertainty now.

If they all pass, I will not be able to afford the huge tax increases, the new tax on dividends, and the new regulations which will cancel manufacturing projects I had planned. I am also greatly concerned that Brazil will follow some of the examples of political parties in the US, which led to this global financial earthquake. I will keep an eye on Brazil for a few years, but will begin searching for another country.

I will now leave this thread.

yep, maybe it is a good decision..... thank you!

Too many questions and uncertainty now.
-@thunderloader

Political stability, or at least a reasonable degree of it, is good for business.

Once question marks get put into an equasion, it's time to consider options.

Other countries, notably Indonesia, are pushing their efforts to get foreign investment and making life easy for people in a variety of sectors. Anything to do with green energy is especially welcome, but other investment is being encouraged.

I wonder if the Real will be even more devalued against the dollar?
-@jasonlovesdogs

This is actually pretty complicated. Projections have consistently set the Real to further decline this year, but it actually hasn’t panned out exactly essentially because the demand for exports from the war in Ukraine. Demand is projected to slow globally which tends to hurt Brazil but it’s way too complex to really predict (wars, political instability, pandemics etc). With the government split and probably a bit hamstrung between the ruling coalition and the opposition big changes are unlikely on many fronts.

that said for better or worse Lula and PTs model was growth via consumption and if exports increase or maintain coupled with an increase of internal consumption (depressed due to immiseration of the populace under Bolsonaro, things like 30% of the public lacking sufficient food, homelessness wave, record informal employment) then you could actually see the Real strengthen. Bolsonaro tanked (in some instances actually attacked it) manufacturing along with Temer, whereas PT tended to follow Brazils historic protectionist policies that started with Vargas essentially. Since Bolsonaro actively sabotaged Petrobras in an attempt to auction it off and the present oil boom, it’s possible Brazil could see in flows should that turn around. It’s also likely that the dollar will come down eventually since it’s at a historic high and that will hurt the US and world as time rolls on (fed will take steps to reign it in). Definitely in the mid term the Real will rise but how much and when who knows.

First I have been here with 3 different presidents. i have no dog in this fight since I am not a citizen yet. I would do it again. if you try to guess what the future will bring odds are not in your favor.

it was the people that I made the decision to live here.

i suggest visiting and seeing first hand if your ideas fit you, For those with Brazilian spouses have discussions with them,

yes I do scratch my head often, but again the culture needs to be accepted Expat cannot change this

First I have been here with 3 different presidents. i have no dog in this fight since I am not a citizen yet. I would do it again. if you try to guess what the future will bring odds are not in your favor.
it was the people that I made the decision to live here.
i suggest visiting and seeing first hand if your ideas fit you, For those with Brazilian spouses have discussions with them,
yes I do scratch my head often, but again the culture needs to be accepted Expat cannot change this
-@Texanbrazil

Yes, yes, and yes. 😄

I wonder if the Real will be even more devalued against the dollar?
-@jasonlovesdogs

My question is will the dollar be even more devalued against the dollar? 😀😀😀

@ltoby955

Good morning.

So, it really does not matter which political party is in power. It has always been difficult for Americans to get a RNE or citizenship here and it always will be It is the reverse treatment of how the US has always treated Brazilians. The US makes it extremely difficult for them to get citizenship in the US, so they make it difficult for us. End of story.

I came here in 2011. I was illegal for over 6 years, that is how hard it was to get legalized. I have a Master´s degree, all of my documents in order, no criminal background... clean record...  And this was under the PT (Lula´s)  government. Once again it is not about who is in power. Folks from Haiti and some other countries do not even need documents to get an RNE and they get it in record time ( I have seen this with my own eyes at the Federal Police) but Americans need to jump through hoops.

Your best bet is to marry a Brazilian or have a baby.

You could always try living in Peru. Great folks, Great country, a lot less violent and much easier to get your RNE. My friend got a 2 year residency in less than 3 months... no hassle, no marriage, no babies, not much financial investment.

Good luck.

10/31/22  It's true that it doesn't seem to matter much which party is in power.

As for being hard for Americans (or anybody else) to obtain residency or citizenship here, that's purely a matter of following the rules:  you do it, and it's not that hard, you don't do it and it's close to impossible, especially after a visitor starts actively breaking the rules by doing things like overstaying or working for pay under the table.  Brazil is very clear about the people that it wants to admit and the people that it doesn't.  That's its right as a sovereign nation, it's not a judgement on individual worth, and like it or not, or agree with their choices or not, that's still the way that its going to be. 

I married my Brazilian husband in the US in July 2017; we registered our marriage at the Consulate and got my VIPER (predecessor of VITEM XI) visa in August.  I moved to Brazil in November, and had my CIE (predecessor of CRNM) in December.  I was naturalized in December 2019.  Smooth as glass.  The biggest holdup came from the fact that the CelpeBras exam for proving proficiency in Portuguese is only offered twice a year.

Brazil has a different, more lenient set of rules for refugees.  That's why there are so many Haitians, Venezuelans, and in some areas, Syrians here.  I doubt that many people would choose to go through the experiences that got them their "special" treatment.

10/31/22 I wonder if the Real will be even more devalued against the dollar?
-@jasonlovesdogs

So far today (12:17 PM, AMT/EDT), the Real has been strengthening against the Dollar, the Euro, and Sterling, according to Wise's tracking.  The currency markets don't seem too bothered by the election results.

I am putting my plans on hold to move to Brazil.
Too many questions and uncertainty now.

If they all pass, I will not be able to afford the huge tax increases, the new tax on dividends, and the new regulations which will cancel manufacturing projects I had planned. I am also greatly concerned that Brazil will follow some of the examples of political parties in the US, which led to this global financial earthquake. I will keep an eye on Brazil for a few years, but will begin searching for another country.

I will now leave this thread.
-@thunderloader

I thank you for that decision

@rnbtg thank you for posting what is (in my opinion) an honest and rational response to the situation. Brazil has survived far worse than this.

@abthree I like your comment and agree with you, except for one detail.

.....for being hard for Americans (or anybody else) to obtain residency or citizenship here, that's purely a matter of following the rules: you do it, and it's not that hard, you don't do it and it's close to impossible

I played by the rules but it was almost impossible for me to get my RNE. Brazil is a country that has rules but they change all the time, which they should not. It is very corrupt here and following the rules does not always guarantee success. I was here for roughly 6 years fighting with the Federal Police (I speak fluent Portuguese, read it and write it too) about my documents. I had to send all my documents back and forth to the the Brazilian consulate in Boston and then back again, always having to pay tremendous amounts of money to someone in the US (as I do not have family there) who would quickly mail the documents back to me via FedEx. Sometimes the person in the US became frustrated from being hassled and took their good ol' time just to irk me (even though I paid him/her).

Everything had a deadline and sometimes when the documents came back from FedEX due to a strike in Brazil or something crazy, the deadline expired and I had to do it all over again. Man, what a hassle. I spend thousands doing this and everytime I returned to the Federal Police in Lapa I argued with the guy again because he added another step to the checklist. I was like ´´ Woah man, hold on here. The checklist you gave me has these specific steps. Why are you adding more?´´ And he just sadistically smiled at me and told me that was the way it is in Brazil. And welcomed me here. I wanted to hurt him, but of course I couldn´t and just gritted my teeth and said thank you, have a nice day. When I returned again with everything done, he again added MORE things to the checklist that I had to do. It went on like this for years. I should note that I did a stable union and not a marriage for personal reasons.

When I finally went back the last time the SAME public worker ( I swear my experience was like an endless hell at the DMV dealing with these people) asked me if I really wanted to go through the process because they were not accepting any more applications in Brasilia. I knew he was lying and said YES I wanted to continue the process. My paperwork never even went to Brasilia. Do you know why I know? His boss came out of the backroom like 10 minutes later, looked at my paperwork and said.. okay, approved.

There is a lot of discrimination at the Federal Police. They are public workers ( at least the ones that work in immigrations), they do not care about us at all and actually make things really difficult on purpose. So, following the rules here makes me wonder.. whose rules? They create them as they go along. Today I am married to another person which was so much easier than the stable union and everything is okay. But it was hell and I would never go through it again. I prefer to go back to the US.

About refugees-

I agree with you that refugees went through hell to get over here and seek refuge, but at the Federal Police, they do not need to do a criminal background check. We must consider that some of these refugees could be war criminals or drug lords or even worse. We need to have a criminal background check. They should too. Did you know that refugees can save all their info on their Cloud via internet even in war torn countries, and if they enter a country without documents they can ask to access a computer and pull everything up. They can prove who they are. Even in poor countries like India most people can access a public computer and save documents on their cloud (which is free to a certain extent).

Have a great week,

Devorah Michaela

Languages4Brazilians

@devorahmichaela By the way.... lots of Americans come here and make money in cash so they stay under the radar, but can still survive.

11/01/22 @devorahmichaela.  I'm glad that things worked out for you.  No personal criticism intended:  I don't know how I would have dealt with the situation in which you found yourself, so I'm in no position to judge.  I've heard some good stories coming out of Lapa, but I've heard some bad ones, too, more than anywhere else.  Not surprising, since it's the main PF office in Brazil's  biggest city.  It sounds like you may have run into a really abusive, xenophobic officer; they're rare, but they certainly exist.  If so, I hope that he's been caught and had to look for another occupation.

The PF can't expect criminal background checks out of places like Afghanistan, Haiti, or Venezuela.  What good is a criminal background check from a criminal government, or a from a failed state?  Many refugees who make it to Brazil have been cleared by the UNHCR, but for others that's impossible.  My standard description of every time I went to the PF, and later when I got my driver's license, was "me and a roomful of Venezuelans".  Most of those people were the poorest of the poor, the ones who had to walk to Brazil. something possible to do if your destination is Manaus, but still very difficult and very dangerous.  They couldn't afford the transport and the bribes to get to a Spanish-speaking country, so they came here.  For people like that, a cloud is strictly something that rain comes from.  Only the lucky ones arrive with cellphones.

I imagine that in SP it may feel like "lots" of Americans are staying illegally and working under the table, but on a percentage basis, it gets lost in the rounds, and outside that one huge city, is probably negligible.  As Brazil continues to tighten its controls, more and more of them will probably find that "surviving" isn't fun or relaxing, and they'll go home.  Good riddance.

@abthree I like your comment and agree with you, except for one detail.
.....for being hard for Americans (or anybody else) to obtain residency or citizenship here, that's purely a matter of following the rules: you do it, and it's not that hard, you don't do it and it's close to impossible

I played by the rules but it was almost impossible for me to get my RNE. Brazil is a country that has rules but they change all the time, which they should not. It is very corrupt here and following the rules does not always guarantee success. I was here for roughly 6 years fighting with the Federal Police (I speak fluent Portuguese, read it and write it too) about my documents. I had to send all my documents back and forth to the the Brazilian consulate in Boston and then back again, always having to pay tremendous amounts of money to someone in the US (as I do not have family there) who would quickly mail the documents back to me via FedEx. Sometimes the person in the US became frustrated from being hassled and took their good ol' time just to irk me (even though I paid him/her).

Everything had a deadline and sometimes when the documents came back from FedEX due to a strike in Brazil or something crazy, the deadline expired and I had to do it all over again. Man, what a hassle. I spend thousands doing this and everytime I returned to the Federal Police in Lapa I argued with the guy again because he added another step to the checklist. I was like ´´ Woah man, hold on here. The checklist you gave me has these specific steps. Why are you adding more?´´ And he just sadistically smiled at me and told me that was the way it is in Brazil. And welcomed me here. I wanted to hurt him, but of course I couldn´t and just gritted my teeth and said thank you, have a nice day. When I returned again with everything done, he again added MORE things to the checklist that I had to do. It went on like this for years. I should note that I did a stable union and not a marriage for personal reasons.

When I finally went back the last time the SAME public worker ( I swear my experience was like an endless hell at the DMV dealing with these people) asked me if I really wanted to go through the process because they were not accepting any more applications in Brasilia. I knew he was lying and said YES I wanted to continue the process. My paperwork never even went to Brasilia. Do you know why I know? His boss came out of the backroom like 10 minutes later, looked at my paperwork and said.. okay, approved.

There is a lot of discrimination at the Federal Police. They are public workers ( at least the ones that work in immigrations), they do not care about us at all and actually make things really difficult on purpose. So, following the rules here makes me wonder.. whose rules? They create them as they go along. Today I am married to another person which was so much easier than the stable union and everything is okay. But it was hell and I would never go through it again. I prefer to go back to the US.

About refugees-

I agree with you that refugees went through hell to get over here and seek refuge, but at the Federal Police, they do not need to do a criminal background check. We must consider that some of these refugees could be war criminals or drug lords or even worse. We need to have a criminal background check. They should too. Did you know that refugees can save all their info on their Cloud via internet even in war torn countries, and if they enter a country without documents they can ask to access a computer and pull everything up. They can prove who they are. Even in poor countries like India most people can access a public computer and save documents on their cloud (which is free to a certain extent).

Have a great week,

Devorah Michaela

Languages4Brazilians

i Take exception s to PFnpt caring from day1they helped m through the process I ALso Ihave 2 federal agents in my family.ifyoutreat them well IT works both ways you can follow your process online

i Tzk e

-@devorahmichaela

Americans tend to be hyper-critical of everyone and nasty, especially to the wiaters and waitresses, cashiers, bureaucrats, and corporate help desk phone operators that they deal with, and they tend to think that this is correct behavior and to have a high and mighty opinioin of themselves and the way they behave.  Many Americans take pride in their abilities to force support people to cower to them.

Its the number one reason why I want to leave the USA and emigrate to Brazil.  I do it too sometimes but I dont like it when I do it and Im gradually bringing myself to change and be more pleasant.

Devorah, just from your writing I can see that you fit my stereotype verywell.  Those attitudes do not do well in Brazil, in this culture people expect youi to be gentle, calm, helpful and nice and respectful with the people you do business with, and they will hurt you behind your back if you dont meet their expectations.

Id suggest you go home, you will be more successful with your own kind ....

I agree with Inubia, they are quite touchy with arrogant people, they use calmo in almost every situation and I take this as I have overstepped the market but more often than not its to pause and think about what comes next. I am Irish and we are very hospitable and its welcomed here.

@Inubia l am American and yet l

echo many of your sentiments about them. I think a great many have grown up in a “bubble”

and are a bit insulated from reality and understanding of the world. I have told my friends here in the USA that one of the more difficult things is to stop seeing the world with American eyes and perceptions. Stop measuring and comparing. With all that being said l also agree that Brazil can be maddening at times. But you just have to learn to go with the flow and figure things out. Being nice and respectful goes a LONG way in that regard.

@Inubia "...Those attitudes do not do well in Brazil, in this culture people expect you to be gentle, calm, helpful and nice and respectful with the people you do business with, and they will hurt you behind your back if you dont meet their expectations."

That was well said.

11/02/22 @Inubia "...Those attitudes do not do well in Brazil, in this culture people expect you to be gentle, calm, helpful and nice and respectful with the people you do business with, and they will hurt you behind your back if you dont meet their expectations."
That was well said.
-@duzzimenino

I agree.  One of the many things I love about Brazilian culture is the strong taboo against "punching down".

@Guest5511

the realigment |US-Latin America is long overdue.  The US has  been puling out of the Middle East ( notice the Troops  and base Withdraw from Saudi Arabia ) .

It is not a Lula x Bolsonaro thing. 

It's a realignment of US interests and priorities.  They want to retain LATAM and tighten the relations to Europe and the Anglo Countries, including Australia. 

USD 850 billion a year is a tad too much to carry in the budget.   And then there is pressure on Health, Transportation, Drought, Climate.

Read the DoD cables.   

Brazil is strategic to US interests.   It has always been so. 

@devorahmichaela

Bureaucrats and clerks here tend to be capricious.  It's nothing sort of new.   

Their sense of self entitlement is not simply a change of winds and politics. 

Just roll with the punches. 

For you all...

Saved from last night at my cell, from the "Liberal " Media ( Folha outlet )

https://noticias.uol.com.br/politica/ul … ao-sao.htm

In a nutshell, it says , from this retired highly ranked officer, that

1.Despite the raises conceded to the core,  and some promotions here and there, they do not see Bolsonaro as one of theirs.  ( It is a known fact Bolsonaro was expelled from the Armed Forces as a Colonel, so he never made to General ). He says the incumbent President committed a number of faux pas.

2.The High Ranking Officers ( Generals, Admirals, Brigadiers )  would rather be on the sidelines.  And follow the Constitution. They are ok with Lula. 

The 1964 Coup, when Jango was in power, stemmed from an interventionist US policy to contain communism. Both Jango (as Joao Goulart ) and latter Salvador Allende were clearly on the side of the upheaval with activists and Socialists.

In the case of Brazil, Congress was a chaos, and upheaval was noticeable across society. 

The only coincidence, now and then, was the middle class clamoring for a coup. 

Right now, the the coalition, these manifestations have short legs, and a dramatic change in policies, highly unlikely.  Both sides dial for the same dollar. 

Even liberal Fernando Henrique lent support to Lula.  Same guy who sanctioned the State Aparatchnik Sell Off. 

The PT types would rather to keep the Aparatchniks, thought.  That is how they miked the system too fund their campaigns war chest and got the taste for the graft.

Lula might not walk on water, but he is pragmatic.  Where he came from, he learned to last the long haul because they got along with the Captains of Industry, despite the rethoric.  He may not like the adjective, but a cop out Union Leader used to be called a "pelego".   

Lula attended the Escola Superior de Guerra in Rio.  He got indoctrinated on what the Military  Brass wants. 

@sprealestatebroker thanks. Interesting read.

11/04/22 For you all...
1.Despite the raises conceded to the core, and some promotions here and there, they do not see Bolsonaro as one of theirs. ( It is a known fact Bolsonaro was expelled from the Armed Forces as a Colonel, so he never made to General ). He says the incumbent President committed a number of faux pas.
-@sprealestatebroker

Bolsonaro was mustered out for insubordination as a Captain (hence his nickname, "Capitão" among his followers) and never got anywhere near Colonel, let alone General.  Aside from that, 👍🏻

@abthree

Good to know.  My mistake.  Thx

Captain.. 

There is another thing....

On and on, Bolsonare became inconvenient spouting his big mouth with his garden variety non sense.

Going all out with Trump to bash China, Iran, just because they were the US enemies did not sit too well with the folks who were bringing in the money on commodity exports. 

He was told to tone down and he did, but not after making a number of inconvenient public and broadcasted poh phos. 

On Iran, it turns out, they are one of our biggest beef importers.  China, not only food stuff ( beef, pork ), but Vale has one of the largest contracts for Ore Exports where the Chinese lease our supertanks, not to mention they outdo the US over in country direct investments.

The same class who gave him support, the Agribusiness, and gotten his all out right to clear the Amazon , also expected him not to ruffle feathers on our trading partners. 

And he managed to upset European Leaders ( who do no buy our Agricultural Surplus but were investors/ donors in a number of programs in Brazil).

While in Campaign, Lula managed to keep his Economic Policies close to his chest, not being specific. As of now, his pick of Secretaries ( or Ministers ), will dictated the course of Economic and Foreign Policies.

Now, the changes in Labor Laws, and some regulations preceded Lula, and came into effect after the "Constituinte" or the re-write of the Brazilian Constitution.  Some of these changes were long in the coming, such as more pro-Labor legislation.  The winds of change came pretty much when , and this way  before Lula took office,  Almir Pazianotto was selected to become the Country's Labor Secretary. Almir Pazzianotto was a Union Representative Attorney who climbed through the ranks and eventually made to the highest post he could achieve. 

So, if you want to read tea leaves, then watch the appointees to each Secretary ( or "Pasta / Ministerio" ).

Also, then, in 1982,  once  PT became a registered Party, the strategy from the grass roots to the leadership, was to win Mayoral Races an d the Congress where they could self fund their campaign war chest.    Pretty much then, they perfected taxing Cities and collecting monies from granting contracts.  This became self evident in the City of Santo Andre-SP, when Celso Daniel, a progressive and well meaning Mayor, under the PT ticket, won the race. While not partaking the graft, he was well aware of it, and when he decided to end it, that got him assassinated.

So your Lava Jato scandall was just the culmination of something they've been done for years, on a smaller scale, and then at the National level. It was just a way to do business. 

Now, if Lula  has mend his ways or not, that is debatable.  If he is to make drastic policy changes leaning towards the left, it is yet to be seen. 

On and on, he has been known to be a pragmatic public persona, and I don't think him being at the helm really presents a threat to the business community.  Hopefully he reverses Bolsonaro's policies on the Amazon, and might slow down the State Owned Enterprises sell off. 

And just some juicy tidbits for you all.....

When the PT was in its formative stages, it attracted a number of groups, which in in way might've determined their core political beliefs, but quite not did so. 

The largest influential body was the Catholic Church through their more left leaning section,. They actually were the most influential in chartering the party through its early days. 

The second were trade unions. Yet , not all  aligned with the PT. Some already had their alliances with Liberal Democrats from the old MDB .  That was the old guard trade union leaders, at the time personified under "Joaquinzao" ( or Big Joaquin ), a charismatic old timey Union Leader more pronoe to conciliation with industrialists ( he controlled the unions on Sao Paulo's Capital, out of his Headquarters @ Liberdade )

The then newly formed version of  America's  AFC-CIO was named CUT ( Central Unica dos Trabalhadores ),  that developed close ties to the PT's leadership.   Many of their leaders gotten elected and won Congress seats on the account of their popularity . 

A third political group, ensconced within the PT file and rank party where the Jacobin Radicals, mostly Trotskyst, and the PT leadership did not see them with good eyes. They were accepted for their ability to run grass root campaigns, but all too inconvenient as far as their standing on issues. Persona non grata.

Lula, through losses at Presidential Races, learned that he needed coalitions to get elected ( just as he has done now ).  So over time, the party stance softened, albeit it retained some Working Class patina.  A greater emphasis was given to Campaign Marketing Expertise, Alliances, and the soft money from compulsory contributions ( call it graft ).

Some umbrella groups were left to run their agendas amok ( the Landless Groups, the homeless groups ), and being entirely overlooked.   This was left unchecked ,as it represented a source of voters who could be exploited through demagoguery and lots of soap box climbing.

One must understand the compulsory voting system in Brazil makes the vote from a disfranchised voter to count as much as a person from means. Contrary to how it goes in the US, where District based voting and voluntary voting means people tend to vote with their local interests and pocket at heart.

So, in closing, in order to understand where the country is going with a new Chief Executive, you need to see who are the powers behind the throne, and what the big money dictates. 

Lula will still throw crumbs to the disfranchised, but in earnest, I don' think he will rock the boat.  There are too many controlling interests to dictate his policies.  And at this time, he has no majority in both houses. 

Can we please keep politics on Facebook, not on here.

Reported to administration

Hello everyone,

Indeed politics should be left out of the forum.

Can we please close this topic now ?

All the best,

Bhavna