Lasso Invokes Muerte Cruzada, Dissolves Congress, Orders New Elections

Armed forces support Muerte Cruzada.

The head of the joint armed forces command,

Nelson Proaño, says the Muerte Cruzada is based

in the Constitution of Ecuador and the military

will uphold it.

This may mean that Leonidas Iza and his confederation

of indigenous peoples may meet more resistance than

they did last June during the 18-day Paro and roadblocks

should they resort to such tactics again.

Iza had threatened to call his people to take to the streets

if El Presidente decided to invoke the Muerte Cruzada.

Iza supported the impeachment attempt and is a fierce

opponent of Sr. Lasso.

News source... Cuenca Highlife

Presidente Lasso's rationale for

invoking the Muerte Cruzada.

"This is a democratic action, because it gives back

to Ecuadorians the power to decide their future,"

Sr. Lasso said in the televised announcement

that he has invoked the Muerte Cruzada and

is calling new national elections.

"Under current conditions it is not possible

to move forward or to solve the problem

of Ecuadorian families, the challenges that

insecurity and terrorism present.  In the midst

of this, there is an Assembly that has as a

political project the destabilization of democracy

and the government."

The president then decreed that the

National Assembly was dissolved as of 6:30 a.m.

on Wednesday, May 17.

Credit... www.cuencahighlife.com

Elections will proceed, high court rules.

Just a day and a half after Presidente Lasso

declared the Muerte Cruzada, Ecuador's

Constitutional Court last night (May 18, 2023)

gave the green light for new elections to proceed.

Meanwhile, Sr. Lasso remains in office, the

National Assembly remains dissolved and the way

is clear for elections to be organized for voting

later this year.

The Court stated it did not have the jurisdiction

to evaluate the grounds stated in six lawsuits

claiming that Ecuador is not in a crisis.  The Court

denied all the lawsuits and stated that

El Presidente acted Constitutionally.

Source... www.cuencahighlife.com

Ecuadorian voters may get their say

and a new National Assembly seated

before year's end.

Upon the high court ruling, the nation's

National Election Council immediately

announced that is on the job preparing for

the elections mandated by

the president's action.

The Council is efforting a schedule that

may include a first round of voting in

August and a final round in October.

However, that is a tentative agenda .. and

firmer plans could be announced next week.

One might say this is new territory for

the Election Council .. as this is the first time

an Ecuadorian president has invoked the

Muerte Cruzada, immediately dissolving the

National Assembly.

Source... Cuenca HighLife

El Presidente will not seek office this year.

While Ecuador will have an election for president

later this year, timing to be determined,

Guillermo Lasso's name will not be on the ballot.

The medically-beset, first-term president has had

it with dealing with opposition legislators. They

are gone for the next few months .. and he is not

planning to stick around to deal with their tactics

after late 2023 elections.

Sr. Lasso has stated he will not seek re-election.

He is 67 years old.

Source... The Washington Post,

re-printed at www.cuencahighlife.com

How long will new legislators serve?

The replacement Assembly members voted into

office around August 2023 will serve for a year and a half,

until regularly-scheduled elections are held

in early 2025 and the members elected in '25 are seated

soon after.

Source... Reuters

@cccmedia … I dare say The constitution is functioning as it was meant to, as much as everyone with a stake in the elections will be using this as an opportunity to make their voices the loudest ones to be heard. An interesting analysis from Amelia & JP and I’ve added comments of my own:

“On Wednesday, President Lasso invoked the Crusada Muerte (Death Cross or Mutual Death) article of the Ecuadorian Constitution, which dissolved the National Assembly (Congress).

What the Death Cross Means

Article 148 of the Ecuadorian Constitution allows the president to dissolve the National Assembly in extreme cases of "serious political crisis or commotion." The literal translation of Crusada Muerte is Death Cross, but a better translation that is often used is "Mutual Death" because invoking Article 148 forces both the National Assembly AND the President to run for re-election within 6 months.”

…it cuts short the mandate of both the assembly and the president, the option to disband the congress and temporarily rule by decree was established in Ecuador's constitution in 2008 as a means of avoiding protracted periods of political paralysis…

“In the meantime, the President is allowed to rule by decree (executive order) on matters of "economic urgency." However, the Constitutional Court (Supreme Court) must review and approve the decrees prior to implementation, so it will act as the check and balance in lieu of the National Assembly.

Why Lasso Invoked the Death Cross; Earlier this week, President Lasso spoke to the National Assembly in response to the latest attempt to impeach him. The impeachment process was based on an accusation by the opposition party (El Correismos - the party of former President Correa) that Lasso engaged in an embezzlement scheme with his brother-in-law and a public oil company. However, the Oversight Commission of the National Assembly reviewed the evidence and concluded that it was not sufficient to implicate Lasso, and one of the incidents involved the administration of former President Moreno. The Oversight Commission recommended that the impeachment NOT go forward due to lack of evidence, but the opposition party decided to continue anyway. Since El Correismos had a supermajority in the National Assembly, they were still able to attain sufficient votes to continue with the impeachment process.

This is why Lasso invoked the “mutual death” clause in the constitution. There is a good chance he would have been impeached so this allows him to leave office on his own terms while forcing everyone else to run for re-election. Additionally, Lasso accused the National Assembly of obstructionism by not bringing any of his policy measures (and several campaign promises) to a vote. That forced him to rule primarily by decree since taking office in May 2021. (In any case) Lasso has already said he does NOT plan to run for re-election.

Yesterday, the election board announced that the first round of the special election will be held on August 20, 2023. If no presidential candidate receives at least 50% of the popular vote, a runoff election will be held on October 15, 2023 between the two candidates with the most votes from the first round.The newly elected President and National Assembly members will finish out the current term, which ends in May 2025, so regular elections will be held again during the Spring of 2025.

Will There Be Protests? people were expecting nationwide protests when Lasso dissolved the National Assembly, but that has not happened. There have been a few small protests, but nothing major. The indigenous leaders held a public meeting to discuss the issue, but did not call for protests. Due to the compressed special election timeline, they most likely concluded that a protest might do more harm than good for their election interests.”

…I would add that Citizens in Ecuador appear to have begun to realize that constant protest (shutting down business, roads, industry) or “paros” do more harm than good; Families already living in poverty, are forced to close shop in alliance with the protesters, losing incomes, they cannot afford to be without. Education in how economics, democratic politics, and positive social movements can benefit them is sorely needed, and slow to come. However, to say that Ecuadoreans don’t support any more actions like those that saw excessive violence in 2019, and hurt the post Covid recovery in 2022, may be an understatement… the normally reserved local indigenous groups have even go so far as to say the paros have been “controversial”.

Controversial enough that the Afro-Ecuadorian association fired their leader, who was attempting more extremist marxism / anti-market capitalism goals that the people have begun to realize would only hurt food security, incomes, and their families…

“Everyone is now focused on running express election campaigns, which will require a lot of time and attention, so running a nationwide protest is not likely to happen anytime soon. And finally, since Lasso announced he will not run for re-election, there isn't much incentive to protest unless he issues a decree that sparks outrage. That isn't likely to happen since the Constitutional Court must approve the decrees and the scope of the decrees he can implement is very limited.

The First Decree: Tax Reform

Lasso already sent his first decree to the Constitutional Court for review: The Law for Strengthening the Family Economy.

This will reduce taxes for the lower and middle classes, while making it more difficult for the wealthy to evade taxes by funneling their personal income through their companies.

The next decree is likely to be about labor reform to help boost formal employment and increase the number of people paying income taxes and contributing to other social programs like IESS.

This was a campaign promise and a major reason Lasso got elected in 2021, but the National Assembly refused to vote on it.”

Presidential decrees.

Presidente Lasso has decreed new taxes on sports betting --

15 percent on bettors' winning wagers, 15 percent

on operators and 15 percent on wagers placed on

non-Ecudorian platforms.

The strengthen-the-family decree, mentioned above,

triples the limit on alllowed tax deductions for

purchasing foods and other essential products.

The signed decrees now go to the Constitutional Court

for review and approval.

www.cuencahighlife.com

A pot shot from a guy currently in Belgium.

The ink was barely dry on the two decrees signed

by Presidente Lasso when exiled ex-presidente

Rafael Correa called Lasso decrees "barbaric."

Correa said his party will repeal all Lasso decrees.

Correa has been living in Belgium, his wife's

home country, since he was convicted in absentia

of Ecuador corruption and sentenced to eight years

behind bars.

Correa also said it has not been decided who will

represent his party in the snap presidential election

later this year.

News source... Reuters

@cccmedia …wouldn’t it be nice if cowardly exiled criminals came home to face their comeuppance or shut it

I picture all the indicted, convicted, exiled ex-presidentes

of Latin America meeting for a weekly Sunday brunch

at one of the upper-class hotels in San Juan,

Costa Rica, or Miami.

cccmedia

When a visit to Ecuador is advisable.

A Redditor asked me today whether now is a

decent time to visit Ecuador.

---

We are in uncharted waters. No president

had ever invoked Muerte Cruzada and

thus governed by decree in the absence

of a National Assembly, now dissolved.

I have seen no signs that Sr. Lasso's

critics are about to stir up a new Paro

such as last year's .. nor take any extreme

action unprovoked.

It seems unlikely that El Presidente would

reinstate higher gasoline prices or take

other provocative action in the near term.

But the situation is unique .. and

no prediction can be called reliable

under the circumstances.

If there is to be more protesting, it is

likely to focus on the center of government,

Quito, and specifically El Centro Histórico

where the main government buildings are.

I would not make plans to visit Quito this year

beyond a connection point to a safer,

less potentially volatile area.

Of course, it's also not a great time to

visit the Pacific Coast of the country.

The violence there is well documented

including at the Trouble On the Coast thread

of this Ecuador forum.

This might be a good time to visit

Vilcabamba or Cotacachi if your

heart is set on an Ecuador trip

in the coming months.

cccmedia

@cccmedia …what a great Monty Python / Black Adder sketch that would be… in Spang-lish of course! I vote for Mom’s Kitchen & Bar, Bronx, New York.

Ecuador's President Guillermo Lasso on Tuesday signed a decree to attract private investment and create new jobs as the South American nation faces deepening political uncertainty.

The decree would create regions with special customs, tax and foreign trade regimes, as well as tax exemptions, the government said.

"We are going to positively transform local and international trade," Economy Minister Pablo Arosemena told reporters at the decree-signing event.

Source: Reuters via MSN News

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/compani … 48d9e4ef7b

¿Casinos también?

Which brings up the question .. will casino resorts

be developed in the special economic zones?

Under the Correa administration, a referendum was

held and the voters narrowly opposed casinos.

The whole industry was shut down a decade ago.

Sr. Lasso has previously proposed special

economic zones with casino resorts, but had

little to no support in the Assembly. With the

Assembly dissolved, will he revive the industry?

cccmedia

Snap-election calendar.

The National Election Council has set August 20

as the date of the snap elections for president

and legislative seats in the National Assembly.

If no candidate wins a majority of the presidential

vote and a second round is needed to decide

the new leader, that election day has been set

for October 15, 2023.

credit... Associated Press in español

Per Cuenca Highlife:

“Neither President Guillermo Lasso nor Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities (Conaie) President Leonidas Iza will be candidates for president in the cross death election.

Neither Lasso nor Iza appears to have sufficient support to advance to the October presidential runoff, both polling around 20%. Lasso called for “national unity to defeat authoritarianism in the elections.”

Iza has suffered a number of setbacks to his political support since he led the nationwide indigenous strike in June 2022. His efforts to organize new strikes have been rejected by the governing board of his Conaie. It appeared likely during the last week that Iza would be defeated by National Assembly leader Salvador Quisphe for the Pachakutik nomination.”