Hurricane Planning

Blustery here in Dominicus but no rain

Blustery here in Dominicus but no rain

How is the weather now? We are about to start boarding our flight from Miami so I hope by the time we get there the weather is not too bad. 😬

Pretty much a non event in the capital, thank goodness. To the west they were not as lucky.

We had a good flight last night into SD. It moved a little bit at landing but that was it. 😍

Get isn't hear, thanks for the update

Tropical wave 94L which is approaching the Windward Islands does look to have some potential to develop and track over the Greater Antilles which includes DR during next week. NHC gives it a 60% chance of development in next 5 days, and 50% in next 48 hours. So high ratings for something to happen. The second wave in mid Atlantic seems less likely to develop due to shear and displacement of middle and low level circulations

Conditions are favourable except for dry air in front of it which will wrap around any circulation as it develops.

The extent of development for DR is uncertain at this time. So watch the NHC updates.

For those that like a good expanation please see attached video just posted by Levi Cowan of Tropical Tidbits:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hVC2StjzWBU

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Aug 9 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated this morning
in association with a low pressure system located about 150 miles
east of Barbados. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form later today or tonight while the low moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.  The disturbance is forecast to
reach portions of the Lesser Antilles tonight, then move near the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday, and be near Hispaniola
around the middle of this week.  Tropical storm watches or warnings
could be required today with shorter-than-normal lead times for
portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto
Rico.  In addition, heavy rains and flooding are likely for the
Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico.  Interests in
those areas should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

Just had a look at the weather forecast model latest runs and the Euro is the most aggressive along with HWRF in developing this wave, whilst the GFS and CMC also develop it but weaker. The satellite imagery is showing what the NHC has written above and the dry air is being pushed ahead.

The National Hurricane Centre has issued it's first bulletin on Potentail Tropical Cyclone Six just now at 5pm.

The Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for all the coastline east of Punta Palenque all the way around the East Coast and along the whole North Coast.

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
500 PM AST Mon Aug 09 2021

...DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES FORECAST TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 59.2W
ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM ESE OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES

The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for the Dominican Republic from Punta Palenque eastward along
the southern coast of the island and the entire northern coast to
the Dominican Republic/Haiti border.

More discussion and track cone have been posted now on the NHC website showing the disturbance crossing DR with a projected windspeed of 45 knots - 50mph  at landfall. Ingestion of dry air is a potential constraint for further development before landfall in the Greater Antilles.

Keep checking the NHC bulletins.

But moving fast at 15mph

Those 7-8mph ones are the killers

I  remember the one  a number of years ago that came over and got  literally  hung up over top of  Hauto Major (not sure that is spelled right) and  dumped horrendous amounts of rain for  22 hours.  Wiped out  farms,  businesses and families.  It was "only" a tropical storm too!

That sounds similar to Isaias last year!

This tropical disturbance looks good from satellite images and conditions are good but there is no good surface ciculation yet due to entrainment at low level of dry air.

The NHC has not found conditions to call this disturbance Tropical Storm Fred yet.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062021
500 PM AST Tue Aug 10 2021

Satellite imagery this afternoon continues to show that the
disturbance has an organized convective pattern, with satellite
intensity estimates of tropical-storm strength from SAB and TAFB.
However, the circulation still appears to not be well defined, with
the San Juan WSR-88D Doppler radar showing multiple mid-level
centers and several convective cells with small-scale rotation.
Based on this, the system will not be upgraded to a tropical cyclone
at this time.  The initial intensity remains 30 kt based on mainly
on continuity from earlier data.  It should be noted that squalls
with short-lived winds to tropical-storm force have been reported in
bands over the northern Leeward Islands.

https://youtu.be/LQzmCrZ6BUw

As usual Levi explains in the above video how this disturbance is developing or rather not developing with low level dry air infusion.

NHC expects this disturbance to become a TS prior to landfall in DR with 40mph sustained winds and track south east to north west so keep checking their bulletins because this disturbance is still in its formative phase. And expect rain and squalls and tropical storm force winds starting later tonight and tomorrow depending where you live in the country.

Well worth checking out the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar which is showing most of the precipitation to the south and no real clear circulation. But their is a moist atmosphere associated with this wave and with the mountains there will be rainfall and that is always the problem for DR.

Maybe attention should now shift to the wave they are highlighting  just off the African Coast?

This could bring significant rainfall to us.  Looks to have shifted track a bit south so be aware! 

And yes tracking the next ones rolling off Africa.

You cant determine the track properly without a low level centre of circulation fix and one hasnt been found so far.

A hurricane hunter is entering the storm now to try to do that.

If it finds one the NHC will be able to narrow the potential entry over DR which is currently between Santo Domingo and Miches.

As a novice I believe I am seeing from San Juan radar what appears to be a consolidated low level centre of circulation now south east of Ponce just offshore and convection is firing up there on satellite. Now that would put the track on the north edge if the cone.

But I best leave it to the experts at NHC to confirm and they will have sircraft data shortly to give us factual information.

Now Fred yet from NHC on the 8pm bulletin but they have juggled the cone and do show the centre I mention above. Added to which they increased the sustained wind spped to 40mph.

The hurricane hunter confirmed the centre 30 miles south of Puerto Rico south east of Ponce. It current tracking is west but it will revert to WNW later.

It is expected to be designated as a tropical storm tonight with some strengthening.

Tropical storm force winds extend out 40miles generally to the north east. A sustained 38mph wind with gusting to 58mph was recorded in St Croix to the north east.

So folks on northside of the forecast NHC track be aware there could be some wind to add to rain. NHC have been advising 40 to 45mph sustained winds in bulletins to date but it wont be everywhere and will arrive after the centre has passed.

Topical Storm Fred exists as the centre approaches the south eastern tip of DR with a WNW track expected by NHC across the country. A small windfield is reported with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph to the north east quadrant extending out 40 miles from the centre which is currently just off/or coming ashore south of Punta Cana where convection is beginning to fire up. The forward motion is 16mph which should put it on the NHC track over me in northern Monte Plata at about 2pm with any ts wind to my north and slightly behind as it travels.

In Puerto Rico they experienced tropical storm winds gusting to the north of centre as it passed so they are in that zone but little elsewhere apparently.

From the San Juan radar it does look as though most of the convection is in the tail well to the south east of the reported centre so this may not affect the souther and western parts of DR until much later in the day. That doesn't mean we will not get impacted as the weather hits the higher elevations. Wet for sure in many parts.

Still not turning WNW fully. La Romana recently reported sustained 35mph winds according to NHC.

Fred contiunes to keep heading west despite the NHC having been expecting a turn WNW for several hours.

It is about 25kms offshore and south of SD right now.

NHC still show it turning WNW and over Bani and towards Dajabon.

IN SD we have  some rains, at times heavy. No real winds or wind gusts!   Lets see what Fred does!

Of interest of course is the one behind him.....

The coordinates given by NHC at 11am put it close to SD, but just looking at the last hurricane hunter mission it shows Fred more to south east with a lower pressure of 1006mb and barreling along the coast. Right now the COC is probably 30km south of Boca Chica still moving west. When will it turn? Still being over water is going to help it. It is probably looking the most organized it has been knowing know now there is a COC at sea level, but thankfully it is not going to be over water for much longer. And as soon as it crosses onto land it will hit the high mountains in the south and that will disrupt it seriously but could lead to lots of rainfall.

The recent hurricane hunter mission also found decent winds well to the east and north in the north west quadrant at flight level so dont drop the guard too soon.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

So the government just put the warning out for 8 p.m. tonight on the North Coast it looks like.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin … mp;fdays=5

Perhaps a similar situation to Fred will evolve for the end of the weekend?

Fred is split between two centres: the low level surface circulation which has run westwards just off the south coasts of Puerto Rico and DR and should be about to cross onto land near Bani or beyond when it turns and may skip northwards re-emerging north of Hispaniola. And the mid level circulation which is further south. How and if these two realign will determine the future regeneration of Fred if any after DR.

For those wanting an easy graphical explanation, check Levis video below and at the end he offers advice on development of the next mid atlantic system which is heading the same way as Fred.

https://youtu.be/Cz-YKyCmJBg

Goodbye Fred from DR!

Fred has been downgraded to a depression and is leaving the country near to Dajabon and into northern Haiti. The North Coast between Cabrera and the Haiti border remains under a tropical storm warning but any effects of Fred should be gone before morning.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1 shtml/234805.shtml?cone#contents

I suspect we will be seeing more reports of wind and rain damage tomorrow from outside the capital. Quite a few fences, trees and signs have being blown over blocking roads in the capital from posting in the press and there are reports of high winds being recorded which closed both Las Americas and La Isabella airports for a spell. There are still power outages too.

There is a tropical wave mid Atlantic with shear but conditions are expected to improve in the coming days to allow development as it tracks on a similar course as Fred towards us.

The NHC have posted this in the 8pm Bulletin:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Aug 11 2021

1. A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic about
1600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to produce
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions
are expected to gradually become more conducive for development,
and a tropical depression could form by early next week while the
system moves generally westward at about 20 mph across the tropical
Atlantic.  This system could reach portions of the Leeward Islands
by late Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

The Euro model develops this disturbance by the time it gets to us but the GFS doesn't. Reminds one of Fred! We should know more by late Saturday when it gets to the Lesser Antilles. Nothing to lose sleep over at present but one to watch and check in on the NHC 2am, 8am, 2pm and 8pm bulletins.

Here in the capital still raining this morning at 5:30.  Most of the areas around me have no power.  Downed trees and or tree limbs are a huge part of the issue in many areas.   I agree we will see many reports coming in.

Main roads in the capital were a mess yesterday.  As usual no one here follows instructions and stays home. Once the rains hit flooding started, electricity went, traffic lights were out and traffic was hell.

Weak tropical storms impacting DR, such as Fred and Isaias last year and causing chaos, show us how fragile is the infrastructure of the country.

Power outages happen quickly and the water supply in aqueducts ceases due to turbidity of water at source in rivers. Bridges get damaged and roads closed as walls, trees, fences and posts collapse. Roads get flooded and traffic is disrupted.

You have to prepare for any tropical disturbance heading to DR whatever the strength is the important lesson because one day a major one will hit and normal life will be seriously affected for a long time.

For me, having lived through and after major hurricanes and having worked with loss adjusters in the US Virgin Islands after Maria and Irma, water is the service you will most want along with communications. And for water you may well need power to a pump to draw from a cistern and/or to pressurize the internal supply.

My back up plan to do just that in DR is a petrol generator which I can plug in and maintain the basic needs of the property and keep the refrigerated food frozen.

From various threads I read that we have regular posters here that have solar power sources and that would seem the best solution to maintain your propert services assuming sufficient battery storage and sun. However I do caution, from my experiences in St Croix after Maria, that there were many and costly claims for damaged solar systems. The obvious damage was panels getting detached and broken by wind, but water was also is a big problem finding its way and damaging battery storage and electrical panels. You need to have a plan to protect your solar systems and be ready to get a specialist report for any damage to claim losses with your insurer. And be mindful that if your solar goes down, finding a generator after a major storm hits will be like finding a needle in a haystack.

Living in the tropics is typically perfect, but from June to November we have to be ready for what nature can throw at us and take each and every threat seriously by being prepared.

Hope you all be protected from Hurricane

Thanks for sharing your experiences!  Some of us are very naive when it comes to these things!

Update on Invest 95L in mid atlantic and which is being mentioned in the Dominican Press(Noticias Sin) today as a potential hurricane here by a local weather expert.

The NHC 8.00am bulletin states as below:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Fred, located near the north-central coast of Cuba.

1. Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized
since yesterday near an area of low pressure located about 850
miles east of the Lesser Antilles.  Environmental conditions are
becoming more conducive for additional development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form over the next day or two while moving
toward the west or west-northwest at about 20 mph.  This system is
expected to reach portions of the Leeward Islands Saturday night
and then the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Sunday and Sunday night.
Tropical storm watches or warnings could be required later today or
tonight for portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico, since strong winds and heavy rainfall are likely to
spread across those areas over the weekend, regardless of the
system's development.  Interests in these areas should continue to
monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

It (potentailly Grace in the future) may of may not be a threat to DR for Monday/Tuesday according to the latest weather model runs, but Puerto Rico and the northern Leeward Islands including the Virgins are likely to be in the way of this disturbance first as it develops. The NHC is not predicting it's track beyond the Leewards accordingly. The 8am GFS run shows it heading north of PR and into the Atlantic.

Another weakish and wet Fred if it impacts DR but this time it would be Grace?

The NHC has started issuing bulletins at 11am today for Potential Tropical Cyclone 7.

The wave is showing some firing up of convection where there was a small area of low pressure which hadn't close off last night. You can read the discussion on the NHC website as below.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2 shtml/131502.shtml?

The track they are showing as below, is based upon the weak Euro latest weather model run at 2am today with the more recent GFS being a more stronger northern outlier.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2 shtml/145644.shtml?cone#contents

All will begin to unfold in the coming days as this disturbance progresses and weather models adapt along with NHC forecasting to changing atmospheric circumstances elsewhere. After 8pm tonight will give us a better idea after the next Euro run and 2 GFS runs.

For those who like a video explanation of Potential Tropical Cyclone 7 see second half of this video from Levi posted recently.

https://youtu.be/bkyUv5ih_r0

Tropical Storm Grace is born and the NHC centretrack is through DR with currently predicted maximum sustained winds here of 45/50mph.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2 shtml/113711.shtml?cone#contents

There is a wide cone for DR because models do not yet agree on tracking so we wait until later for better concensus. It is now in the short window with better environmental conditions to organize more. Be prepared in any case.

Moving fast at 22mph and should be gone from DR by Tuesday.

According to NHC in the 5pm Bulletin, TS Grace is poorly orgainized with barely a circulation being found by the aircraft recon recently and south from the main convection. But for some reason they didn't investigate into the area of convection where the maybe mid level circulation.

The latest NHC track shows it moving south.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2 shtml/204412.shtml?cone#contents

There is still uncertainty and the centre could relocate to the area of convection but the track is adjusted to where the COC has been found.

How may times do we see this with early tropical storms? Expect more changes over the next couple of days.

The NHC discussion explains it all:

Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072021
500 PM AST Sat Aug 14 2021

Grace is a poorly organized tropical storm this afternoon.  The
NOAA Hurricane Hunters were unable to close off a circulation, at
least at their flight level of 5000 feet, but dropsonde observations
and reports from some of the islands in the Lesser Antilles suggest
that there's at least a broad cyclonic circulation at the surface.
The various data also indicate that the center has sped up, or
re-formed, and is located farther southwest than previously
estimated.  Based on the aircraft data and earlier ASCAT data, the
initial intensity is set at 35 kt.

Both the future track and intensity of Grace have a high level of
uncertainty.  For the track, the forecast is likely to be
complicated by the fact that the system doesn't currently have a
tight low-level circulation, and the center could always re-form at
any time, especially with convection ongoing farther to the north.
In addition, the storm has not yet slowed down, and in fact, the
initial motion is estimated to be toward the west (275 degrees) at
23 kt.  The guidance envelope has made a notable southward shift due
to the adjustment of the initial position, and the models insist
that Grace will primarily have a west-northwestward heading for much
of the forecast period with the speed gradually decreasing during
the next 48 hours or so.  The NHC track forecast has been shifted
southward accordingly, although any re-formations of the center
could cause this track to shift again in future advisory cycles.

If Grace slows down as forecast--which is obviously not a sure
thing--environmental conditions should be conducive to allow for
some strengthening before the system reaches the Greater Antilles.
The southward adjustment in the official forecast now takes Grace
over the Greater Antilles for a longer period of time, and the
official intensity forecast is therefore lowered beyond 48 hours.
This is a middle-of-the-road solution, and actually lower than most
of the intensity guidance.  If the forecast track shifts north or
south, the system could strengthen further over water.
Alternatively, Grace could go the way of Fred and dissipate before
the end of the 5-day period.

In the end, the exact track of the center and the intensity of the
system will likely not be as important as the heavy rainfall that
is forecast to fall across the Leeward Islands and the Greater
Antilles during the next few days.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South coast of the Dominican Republic from Punta Caucedo to Cabo
Engano
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo to
Cabo Engano

Tropical storm conditions are possible over eastern parts
of the Dominican Republic Sunday night and Monday.

Across Puerto Rico, the Dominican
Republic, and Haiti, heavy rainfall may lead to flash, urban and
small stream flooding, along with the potential for mudslide

There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts across the rest of
the Dominican Republic,

The COE  have now issued alerts and 9 provinces are in red alert.  This is earlier than normal.  The director of the COE is asking everyone to return home by 4 pm Sunday and stay home!   I assume they don't want a repeat of last time.

Latest NHC bulletin says Grace is still disorganized but they do see signs of some better shape:

Tropical Storm Grace Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072021
500 AM AST Sun Aug 15 2021

Radar data from the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico, as well as
satellite images, indicate that Grace is still not a well-organized
tropical cyclone, although over the past few hours banding features
have become more evident and the outflow has improved. An earlier
ASCAT-C overpass showed peak winds of 30 kt associated with Grace,

Centre track at 8am from NHC shows the storm tracking across DR from south east to north east Haiti with a very small windfield of estimated/forecast maximum 40/50mph sustained winds to the north side and travelling fast but due to slow down today. It should be impacting DR from midnight so be prepared for rain again and some wind and gusting in places particulary to just north of track.

Friends in the Leewards just north of the track said there was no wind associated with  Grace and the heaviest rain came early this morning.

San Juan radar appears to be  showing what is the centre of circulation where NHC are fixing the centre and rain well spread out around the disturbance.

Be prepared for all possibilities along south and east and north east coasts where there are tropical storm warnings in place now.

https://origin.www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2 shtml/114428.shtml?cone#contents

The most recent forecast for the path

Looks like Grace will cross the DR and then Haiti.

19 provinces are now under red alert!  While this is not a hurricane and winds are not likely to be a huge issue, rain and flooding is.  Take precautions now!

Dr. Levi Cowan
@TropicalTidbits
·
3m
#Grace is just a wave axis and has been for at least 24 hours. For that reason, it's hard to say "where" it is centered, exactly. So far, it seems most consolidated south of PR instead of north of PR, so a run-in with Hispaniola seems likely, preventing strengthening for now.

Still will come with lots of rain- based on what we are seeing in PR with this event it will be plentiful and continuous across north to south - and some gusts/winds reaching tropical storm force. You can check San Juan radar to see several hours of continuous rain there across whole country and stretching back to Virgin Isles. First rain bands in mid Mona Channel now but continuous rain starts mid PR.

Aircraft recon are investigating.

The path prediction

https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnew … ze=897,736

Grace has been downgraded to a tropical depression in the NHC 5pm bulletin and it has a 'track' further south and into DR near Barahona.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2 shtml/205228.shtml?cone#contents

Tropical Depression Grace Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072021
500 PM AST Sun Aug 15 2021

An earlier ASCAT pass over Grace suggested that the maximum winds
were 25-30 kt and this has been confirmed by observations from a
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft.  Aircraft and scatterometer data
also suggest that the circulation is elongated and disorganized.
Based on these data, the system is being downgraded to a 30-kt
depression at this time.  Since the system is below storm strength
and is passing by Puerto Rico, the Tropical Storm Warnings for
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands have been discontinued.  The
island of Hispaniola is kept under a Tropical Storm Watch given the
possibility that the system could restrengthen tonight or tomorrow
morning before moving over land.

As earlier post, it is really an elongated tropical wave now stretching from well south to well north of Puerto Rico with a continuous rain band seen on San Juan radar stretching starting near the west end of PR and extending for several hundred miles east to the Virgins, and if this translates to DR, we all can expect significant rain beginning later tonight and well into tomorrow.

Unfortunately rain causes havoc in DR.