How Long Will the Nationwide Strike Persist?

How Sr. Lasso can use the Death Cross strategy

to extend his time as president.

In a fascinating column published this weekend,

Expat David Morrill lays out a strategy by which

Presidente Lasso could conceivably extend his

presidency.  El Presidente's term currently has

about two years remaining.

Under this strategy, Sr. Lasso allows the

impeachment effort to play out over two to

three months, then short-circuits the impeachment

at the last minute by invoking the Death Cross.

This would buy additional time for the

Lasso Presidency of about seven months while

new elections of the Assembly and the Presidency

are organized.

During these months, the Assembly is dissolved and

the president remains in office while governing

by presidential decree.

Source... David Morrill column at Cuenca HighLife

Perils of the Death Cross strategy.

There are at least three potential problems

if El Presidente opts to invoke the Death Cross.

(1) Leonidas Iza has just vowed his

indigenas members will ¨take to the streets¨

as they did last June if Presidente Lasso

declares the Death Cross.

(2) There is potential confrontation between

Conaie-Fenocin indigenas protesters and the

military-government controlled forces that

may not exhibit the tolerance seen last year.

(3) Sr. Lasso's health has been deteriorating

since taking office in 2021.  Cuenca HighLife

reports that he has spinal problems

that cause him continual pain and require

anti-pain pills.  He broke his left fibula last week and

is recuperating with no public appearances for

three weeks.  At age 67, how much stress and

aggravation of his conditions can he tolerate?

cccmedia

Where does the truth lie?

A high official of the Ecuadorian government

is disputing the indigenas nations' claim that

the government has been lying and not fulfilling

its promises to the nations.

Henry Cucalón, who holds the title of government

minister for Ecuador, says, ¨We have reached

90 percent compliance¨ with the agreements

made with the indigenas organizations last year.

The government remains open to resuming

discussions, said the minister, whereas Conaie

leader Iza has been saying the time for talking

is over.

Source... www.cuencahighlife.com

I read recently in an article about Ecuador that the government is "unstable."  Is this true?

Retweeting a reasonable opinion.

The first commenter on the latest article at

Cuenca HighLife posted this today....

¨The real reason they are threatening and

not striking is because their people don't

want a strike.  They saw the damage it did

last time hurt the people, not the government.

¨In a democratic society, you use your vote

against somebody, not threats.¨

JustinTyme, commenting at Cuenca HighLife

For those wondering how stable or unstable

the Lasso Administration currently is, I suggest

you read the last dozen or so posts on this thread.

Having read such, you should be able to form

an opinion.  If it's still not clear, read or re-read

the entire thread and clarity should emerge.

cccmedia

Sr. Lasso responds.

El Presidente has made it known he has no intention

of resigning from his office.

He sent out his Government Minister, Henry Cucalón,

who told reporters that the pro-impeachment

recommendation made by a so-called

Justice Commission is ¨a fantasy and a fable.¨

The commission report has been forwarded

to the National Assembly.  Catalón called it

¨221 pages of pure trash.¨

If the Assembly votes to move ahead with impeachment

proceedings, most political experts expect Sr. Lasso will

let the process advance until it is clear whether there are

sufficient votes against him .. and then decide whether to

short-circuit the effort through the previously-discussed

Death Cross strategy.

Source... www.cuencahighlife.com

Flash!

Ecuador legislators vote in favor

of starting Lasso impeachment.

Meeting over the weekend, Ecuador's

National Assembly voted to open

impeachment proceedings against

Presidente Lasso and advance the

matter to the Ecuadorian Supreme Court

for review.

According to last week's report by the

so-called Justice Commission, positions

and contracts were exchanged for

bribes at government agencies during the

current Lasso Administration.

The administration has denied the allegations.

Source... Reuters

Lasso opponents' backup plans.

The indigenas group Conaie has been waiting

in the wings as the impeachment process unfolds.

Conaie is planning demonstrations for this

Wednesday, March 8.

Reuters quotes opposition politician Mireya Pazmino

as saying on Thursday, ¨Guillermo Lasso Mendoza is a

serious problem and there are many ways to

get rid of that problem.¨ Pazmino said that

political pressure could force Sr. Lasso to step down.

¨We also have the streets.¨

Source... Reuters

'Keeping the lid on' during a day

of protests.

Amid political turmoil and a Women's Day

march planned for Wednesday, Mar. 8

(yesterday), the government decided

to tone down any response to

public 'manifestaciones'.

The interior minister announced there would

be no enhanced police presence in the capital

or other major cities where large crowds

typically gather for special days during

turbulent times.  The idea was to reduce the

chance for people vs. police confrontations

in the streets.

Conaie's Leonidas Iza told his indígenas

members this was not a time for

a full-on mobilization against the government,

although he said that could still occur

months from now after the impeachment process

runs its course.

Source... www.cuencahighlife.com

March deemed peaceful.

The Women's March events were conducted

peacefully in Ecuador's major cities.

An event spokesperson said the organizers

appreciate that indigenous and labor groups

participated.  She blamed Presidente Lasso

for failure to correct problems women face

in Ecuador by cutting the budgets for

promoting women's rights and reducing

violence.

Source... www.cuencahighlife.com

Workers Plan ¨Permanent Mobilization.¨

FUT, the United Workers Front, participated in

the Women's Day events.

FUT on Monday announced it will initiate

a ¨permanent mobilization¨against the

Lasso government starting on March 14.

A list of FUT grievances can be found in an

article dated March 9, 2023, at

Cuenca HighLife's website.

@cccmedia  I was wondering why the prez didn't show up to show his support.  But having read your post, I can see why he wouldn't show up!

Indigenous organizations fully

back away from talk of

resuming the strike or

blocking roadways!

In radio and newspaper interviews, the head of the main

indigenous federation, Conaie, has put out the word that

there is no consensus favoring resumption of the Paro

by Ecuador's indigenous and low-income populations.

Last week, Conaie backed off pugnacious comments by

its president, Leonidas Iza, and said the Conaie membership

will await the outcome of the potentially months-long

impeachment process now underway versus El Presidente.

Sr. Iza's latest interview comments make it clear that

there is no consensus across the indigenous communities

for resuming the national strike, even if Sr. Lasso invokes

the Death Cross strategy explained earlier in this thread.

¨That is a decision that will be arrived at through

consultation with our members, not one that I will

make alone,¨ Sr. Iza said.

The president of Fenocin, another organization

representing black, peasant and indigenous persons

often generally aligned with Iza's group, was fired from

his position by the Fenocin board after he threatened

to 'paralyze' Ecuador by resuming the Paro.

Sr. Iza is not backing off his pronouncements that

Presidente Lasso should be removed from office, but

says the Death Cross strategy Sr. Lasso could invoke

would give him unlimited powers for months.

Source... www.cuencahighlife.com

Evangelical group seeks less confrontational

solutions to government-related issues.

The president of Feine, which represents

indigenous Evangelicals, gave a radio interview

last Wednesday from which excerpts were

published today at the Cuenca Highlife website.

Feine council head Eustaquio Tuala criticized those

calling for a resumed Paro while stating that he

supports the impeachment efforts against

El Presidente.

Tuala said a strike would create ¨unnecessary chaos¨

at a time when officials in government should be

restoring order.

Tuala said that the June 2022 strike and roadblocks

hurt his people more than there was harm to

the government.  ¨What did we achieve in that

mobilization (besides) hardship for our families?

Even Conaie leadership admits that,¨ said Tuala.

Snafu temporarily derails the Lasso

impeachment process.

Although the impeachment document was

green-lighted in the National Assembly on Monday,

the document has since been withdrawn for

needed corrections in order to pass muster

at the next stop, the Constitutional Court of Ecuador.

Ecuador's Legislative Administrative Council has

blocked the impeachment procedure from

proceeding for a week or more while corrections

are made in the document.

Even if the high court rules the revised document

is valid, a long impeachment process including a

trial of El Presidente could play out through most

of 2023.

If the president is ultimately impeached, it would

require a super-majority vote of two-thirds of

the Assembly in order to remove him from office.

A previous,  June '22 impeachment of Sr. Lasso failed to

garner the super-majority that was required.  In that

same month, indigenous blockades were withdrawn

and the start of negotiations between protest groups

and the government was agreed to.   Further progress

is on hold during the current impeachment proceedings.

Source... www.cuencahighlife.com

Indigenous protests said to impede oil production.

Ecuador's oil minister says oil production is down

eight percent at state-run Petroecuador .. as

indigenous protesters are allegedly impeding

production at a number of locations in

Orellanas province.

The. government says it is open to negotiations

with the indigenous.  Petroecuador is relying on

assistance from the Ecuadorian military to safeguard

its facilities.

Source... www.cuencahighlife.com

Court green-lights impeachment process

versus El Presidente.

Ecuador's Constitutional Court has affirmed the

National Assembly's right to impeach Sr. Lasso

and seek a super majority vote to remove him

from office.

The court ruled that allegations of embezzlement

in the public-oil industry are justification to

move ahead in the impeachment process.

However, the court may have weakened the case

against Sr. Lasso by ruling that evidence was not

sufficient to proceed against the president

with regard to allegations of extortion.

The court also noted that it found

procedural errors in the impeachment petition.

Source... www.cuencahighlife.com

El Presidente leans into the

Death Cross Strategy.

Sr. Lasso has told Financial Times that

he will invoke the Death Cross and call

for new elections if impeachment appears

imminent in the National Assembly.

The president and the entire assembly

would be on the voting ballots if the

Death Cross is invoked.

Impeachment would require a two-thirds

supermajority in the assembly.

A committee of the assembly is expected

to begin impeachment hearings this week.

Source... www.cuencahighlife.com

Hospital stay extended.

Presidente Guillermo Lasso is having to prolong

his stay at a millitary hospital in Quito where he

is recovering from a urinary tract infection.

The 67-year-old president of Ecuador will remain

hospitalized until at least Friday.  His doctors say

Sr. Lasso is receiving intravenous treatments and

supplemental oxygen.  Early this week he was

running a high fever, the doctors said.

Source... www.cuencahighlife.com