Canada narrowly avoided a technical recession. The country's economic and demographic growth partly relies on immigration. However, the economic downturn, marked by the housing crisis, raises concerns among some of the population. Let's delve into the analysis.
"Anti-immigrant sentiment": The study sparking debate
On Wednesday, June 12, The Research Co. released a study that set Canadian media ablaze. According to the survey conducted from June 1 to June 3, which gathered opinions from 1001 adults, 44% of Canadians believe immigration has a negative impact on the country. This is a 6-point increase from October 2023, the date of the institute's last study on the subject. Furthermore, 46% of respondents call on the government to reduce the number of immigrants. These calls are more prevalent among respondents in Ontario and Atlantic Canada (53% in both regions).
Does this signal a shift in public opinion regarding immigration? Should expats fear further government measures aimed at reducing the number of immigrants? Canada surprised many by unveiling its new, more restrictive immigration plan. Immigration Minister Marc Miller justifies the tightening of measures while refraining from blaming expats for all of Canada's problems, starting with the housing crisis. The real root of the crisis lies in a labor shortage in the construction sector. Retirements are not being replaced, and there is a lack of workers, causing project delays. The crisis feeds into itself, with Canada potentially facing a shortfall of 500,000 construction workers by 2030.
Contextualizing the numbers
Many observers believe the term "anti-immigrant" is too strong, considering Canada's history as a land of immigration. The Research Co. survey also notes that 42% of Canadians view immigration as beneficial for the country. This figure is down 2 points but remains high. Additionally, 14% are undecided, a decrease of 3 points.
Young Canadians (18-34 years old) are the most ardent supporters of immigration (55%), followed by those aged 35-54 (32%) and those 55 and older (37%). While respondents from Ontario and Atlantic Canada call for a reduction in immigration, fewer people in other provinces, such as Quebec and British Columbia, share this sentiment. In fact, most Canadians surveyed (66%) believe that immigrants contribute to the country's prosperity.
Immigration to support Canada's demography and economy
Economic analysts often state that a financial crisis always stirs opposition against easily targeted populations, with foreigners traditionally being an obvious target. However, the survey results should be tempered by the reality experienced in different Canadian provinces.
Nova Scotia, a province in Atlantic Canada, continues to seek skilled foreign workers. The province attracts fewer expats than Ontario or Quebec (particularly their major cities). Nova Scotia's immigration department rolls out the red carpet for expats, offering study, work, and education financing opportunities to attract and retain foreign workers. The province anticipates needing at least 10,000 specialized foreign workers by 2030.
Attracting expats to less popular provinces
Saskatchewan faces a similar challenge. According to Statistics Canada, the province's growth mainly stems from immigration. However, it struggles to retain foreign talent. Of the foreigners who arrived in 2016, 42.1% left the province within five years. Immigrants prefer to live in Ontario, British Columbia, Alberta, and Quebec, especially in major cities like Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver. Other provinces, severely impacted by the demographic crisis, have been calling for years for a reorientation of Canadian policy to attract more foreigners.
The federal government has heeded these calls: Provincial Nominee Programs (PNP) are designed to make various Canadian provinces more appealing. The federal government aims to redirect more expats to lesser-known provinces and cities with economic potential (employers recruiting, universities, etc.). In 2023, Saskatchewan's population significantly increased by 93.5% thanks to international immigration. The province now plans to create new programs to retain expats. Like Ontario, which has legislated to prohibit the "Canadian experience" requirement that hindered expats' job searches, Saskatchewan aims to facilitate the employment of expats in their fields of expertise.
Canada's immigration outlook
Is Canada a mosaic or a melting pot? Respondents in The Research Co. study are divided on the question. Forty-four percent favor the mosaic, seeing it as Canada's most honest and faithful representation. They believe cultural differences are a wealth ingrained in the country's history. Meanwhile, 42% favor the melting pot, where immigrants should blend into Canadian culture. Additionally, 65% of respondents believe immigrants should only be allowed to stay in Canada if they accept the country's values.
What are Canada's values? The land of immigration itself has been enriched by successive waves of immigrants. Some researchers link the current immigration debate to Canadians' difficulty in understanding the country's history. They remind us that Canada's first inhabitants were Indigenous people, who were around 1.8 million in 2021 and are reclaiming more rights, especially regarding housing. The major real estate project Senakw in Vancouver exemplifies this shift, a change not always understood by some Canadians, who believe reconciliation with First Nations should follow a historical perspective that does not consider Indigenous rights. In contrast, Indigenous people seek a more significant role in the urban renewal of Canadian provinces.
Meanwhile, prospective candidates keep believing in the "Canadian dream." Despite becoming more restrictive, Canada's vision of immigration remains "positive" compared to other countries. The government still aims to enhance support for new immigrants to facilitate their settlement. The state seems to envision a mosaic where each culture is represented.
