Many expats are leaving their overseas dreams and returning home for COVID-19 pandemic-driven reasons, including job cuts, affordability, and to be with loved ones. An exodus of migrant workers may have negative impacts on economies already affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, returning expats may need to adjust to a new lifestyle in their home countries all over again, especially after lengthy overseas stays.
Many expats are returning home amid the COVID-19 pandemic due to reasons such as job losses and visa expirations, expat destinations no longer being affordable, health and safety, the general uncertainty, and to be with their families. Even short-term expats like digital nomads are affected by the ongoing mobility and lifestyle restrictions.
Where are expats leaving from?
While expats are leaving from many countries around the world, here are a few examples:
BBC reported that “1.3 million foreign-born people” might have left the UK “between 2019 and 2020”, citing a study by the Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCOE). The report also noted that a study by the University of Oxford “suggested” that around 400,000 – 600,000 people have left. BBC also stated that the exact numbers are not known. The ESCOE mentioned different groups of migrants for whom staying in the UK without employment would mean a high cost of rent vs returning home to their families, where costs are lower, with most probably a lower risk of contracting the virus.
Singapore, a popular expat destination, has also seen people leaving following the pandemic. CAN (Channel News Asia) reported that Singapore's total employment experienced the largest drop in over 20 years, declining by 166,600 in 2020, “excluding foreign domestic workers”, citing a report by the Ministry of Manpower on 16 March 2021. The non-resident employee number had declined by 181,500 in 2020. The government of Singapore is also pushing organizations to hire locals with its Jobs Growth Incentive that provides “salary support” to employers who hire citizens and permanent residents from September 2020 to and including September 2021.
Another widely discussed expat-exodus is from the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. S&P Global Ratings reported in February 2021 that they forecasted the GCC population to fall by around 4% in 2020 from the expat exodus after the COVID-19 pandemic and the oil price fall. These countries are also focusing on giving employment to nationals and reducing the number of expats.
The expat exodus may negatively impact economies already affected by the pandemic, but whether such a scenario occurs and any quantifiable effects are to be seen. For example, S&P didn't expect the demographic changes in the GCC to have any significant impact on the short-term economic growth of the region.
The expat movement, however, is not only between countries. Workers who moved to cities for greener pastures are also returning to their homes in regional areas. Al Jazeera noted in April 2021, the migrant-worker exodus from the Indian cities was badly affected by COVID-19. There are similar trends in other countries.
Additionally, the ongoing pandemic has reduced migration globally, affecting population growth in some countries. For example, Australia, a popular migrant destination, had a population growth of just 0.5% in 2020 compared to a 1.5% growth in 2019, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Life after returning home
The expat exodus also means some countries are suddenly faced with more citizens returning home. Expats may find new opportunities in their home countries, and returning expats may also contribute positively to such economies.
Many New Zealand citizens, for instance, are returning home. The University of Auckland reported in May 2021 about the country's “brain gain” due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The report cited Statistics New Zealand as saying that the country is experiencing its first net gain of citizens since the late 1970s when collecting data started. The report also noted that most of the “returnees are highly skilled”, citing an expat organization called Kea New Zealand.
However, some expats returning home may face challenges, starting with travel restrictions affecting their return journey. The challenges upon return may include finding jobs in the current economic environment, making new friends, and adjusting to a new location again, especially after a long stay overseas. The home countries may also have daily life-related restrictions due to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.
Times are challenging for many expats worldwide, and we hope things turn out for the best – soon!
