Better to do business- Panama or Ecuador?

Hi bekerst,

A new topic has been created with your post on the Ecuador forum for a better visibility.

All the best,
Christine

bekerst wrote:

where  is better  to go...Panama or  Ecuador -- do you have any  information  on Panama  or anybody   up there?

Ecuador:  population 15.7 million
Panama:  population 3.8 million

Ecuador:  capital city Quito, 9,300 feet elevation, springlike temperatures all year round
Panama:  capital city Panama City, seven feet above sea level, hot and humid climate

Ecuador: above average economic growth for the region, 4.8 percent unemployment in 2012
Panama: economy "among the fastest growing and best managed in Latin America" (this citation and statistics in this post courtesy of Wikipedia);  2.7 percent unemployment in 2012

Ecuador:  legal tender is the U.S. dollar
Panama:  legal tender is the U.S. dollar

Spectacles:     
       Panama: famous canal, which officially opened 100 years ago in August 1914.
       Ecuador:  enormous turtles and blue-footed boobies ("Galapagos" means "giant tortoises.")

Geographical proximity:
       Panama:  closer to U.S.
       Ecuador:  closer to Buenos Aires, Argentina

Controversial leader:
       Panama:  Military dictator Manuel Noriega, accused of drug trafficking in 1988 by U.S. Federal Courts in Miami and Tampa;  eventually, U.S. intervention in Panama led to thousands of deaths in that era.
       Ecuador:  Gabriel Garcia Moreno, activist presidente martyred by revolutionaries outside the Presidential Palace in 1875.

National Sport:
      Panama:  baseball aka "beisbol."  MLB standouts have included Rod Carew and Mariano Rivera.
      Ecuador:  soccer aka "futbol."  Modern-day star:  Christian "Chucho" Benites Betancourt, b. 1986.

No major league baseball player has ever come from Ecuador, so it is obvious that Panama is culturally superior to Ecuador, with many others besides the two great ones mentioned .

mugtech wrote:

No major league baseball player has ever come from Ecuador, so it is obvious that Panama is culturally superior to Ecuador, with many others besides the two great ones mentioned .

Mugtech hits it out of the park again, introducing the statistic that Ecuador has yet to produce a Major League baseball player.

For other Latinophiles who believe that the cultural superiority of a nation depends on the number of MLB players produced, here are the totals of players born in Latino countries based on the annual list at mlb.com for the season just ended...

Number of major leaguers by Latino country* (Western Hemisphere)

Dominican Republic       83
Venesuela                      59
Cuba                              19
Puerto Rico                    11
Mexico                              9
Curacao                            5
Panama**, Colombia        4 each
Nicaragua                         3
Brasil, Aruba***                 1 each
Ecuador                            0

During the 2014 season, the Texas Rangers (who failed to make the playoffs) had the most non-USA-born players, 15.  Next in line were the world-champion San Francisco Giants, with 13.*

*Source:  mlb.com, annual list based on Opening Day rosters, including "restricted" Major League players.

** Panama has had scores of MLB players over the years dating back to the 1950s.

*** The official language of Aruba is Dutch.  However, Spanish is a required subject in the schools and is widely spoken in Aruba.  The official language of Curacao is also Dutch, with Spanish being widely spoken.

    Puerto Rico made mlb.com's "foreign" list despite being a territory of the United States.

    Brasil, where Portuguese is spoken, is considered a Latino country by some definitions despite its prior history as a colony of Portugal.

Of course I was just kidding, I would rather live in Ecuador than any of the other countries listed.  There is always Sat. tv.

Here is a list of business rankings for Latin America, and the Caribbean. Make of it what you will, how objective, or subjective this study is I have no idea, but Panama ranks far higher than Ecuador for ease of doing business.
If doesn't go to the Latin American rankings on this link just go into the rankings by region, and it will pop up.

http://www.doingbusiness.org/rankings

As of which is better to live, that's subjective as well. I choose Panama over Ecuador, because of it's geographical location, and my geographical location. Panama is just much cheaper, easier, and convenient for me to travel back and forth to. From a temperature, and cost of living perspective, personally think Ecuador probably tops Panama.

mugtech wrote:

Of course I was just kidding, I would rather live in Ecuador than any of the other countries listed.  There is always Sat. tv.

And there's hope you'll be seeing the first major leaguer born in Ecuador while watching DirecTV one of these days, Mugtech.

That's because, according to Steve Pinto at his "About Baseball' website, the number of foreign-born players in MLB has always followed U.S. immigration patterns.

j600rr wrote:

From a temperature, and cost of living perspective, I personally think Ecuador probably tops Panama.

Right, temperature.

Let's put aside baseball, ease of doing business, cost of living and proximity to the United States for the moment and talk about climate.

I spent a few days in Panama City a while back and got the personal feel of how hot and extremely humid it is.

OK, you say, I'll do my business up in the green mountains of Chiriqui
in the town of Boquete, Panama, highly touted in some online venues for its supposedly cooler temperatures at 3,900 feet elevation.  That is about half the altitude of Cuenca, EC, which in turn is about a thousand feet lower than here in Quito (9,350).

Well, I just visited some of the weather websites including weatherbug.com and accuweather.com

It turns out Boquete is not comfortably cool.

Take today, for instance, Nov. 12th, mid to late autumn in the Northern Hemisphere.  The temperature in Boquete this morning was 30 degrees Celsius, which is 86 Fahrenhheit (accuweather).  That's at 11 a.m.  The Accuweather RealFeel temperature, which takes into account humidity:  37 C, which is 98.6 F.  In November.  In the morning.

The city of David, Panama, whose airport serves Boquete, was just over 91 F at that hour.

According to weatherbug's monthly statistics, the average high in Boquete is in the 30s Celsius most months of the year.  That's high 80s and 90s F most of the year.

Any website that tells you the temps in Boquete are typically in the 70s (and some do) is probably averaging in the cooler overnight hours.

Today's 12 noon temperature here in the capital of Ecuador:  66 F.

Factor in the above before you start doing business in Panama.

cccmedia, Quito

cccmedia wrote:

]
And there's hope you'll be seeing the first major leaguer born in Ecuador while watching DirecTV one of these days, Mugtech.

That's because, according to Steve Pinto at his "About Baseball' website, the number of foreign-born players in MLB has always followed U.S. immigration patterns.

The Pittsburgh Pirates drafted a few pitchers from India, so anything is possible.

This is fun.

On the 2014 Index of Economic Freedom with strata:  FREE (1 - 6), MOSTLY FREE (7 - 34), MODERATELY FREE (35 - 90), MOSTLY UNFREE (91 - 151) and REPRESSED (152 - 178), Panama is MODERATELY FREE at #71 and Ecuador is REPRESSED at #159, beating out North Korea which is #178. 
http://www.heritage.org/index/ranking

Number of Ms. Universe winners:  Panama - 1, Ecuador - 0 (But, Russia was originally crowned Miss Universe 2002 but was dethroned 4 months into her reign. Panama was originally 1st Runner-Up and assumed the title.)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miss_Universe

In terms of the rating of its government bonds (a function of factors such as the amount of government debt and the ability and willingness of the government to repay), Panama debt is rated AAA by S&P (PRIME) and Ecuador debt is rated B+ (HIGHLY SPECULATIVE) 
http://www.standardandpoors.com/ratings … p;filter=E

On the Global Food Security Index, Panama is ranked GOOD at #45 Ecuador is ranked MODERATE at #56 (U.S. and Canada are ranked BEST at #1 and #8, respectively).
http://foodsecurityindex.eiu.com/Country

Mugtech wrote:

"The Pittsburgh Pirates drafted a few pitchers from India, so anything is possible."

Some of the great MLB infielders have been from Venesuela.

That includes three-time World Series champion (and current free agent) Pablo "Kung Fu Panda" Sandoval, a third baseman who hit three home runs in one World Series game and starred for the Giants again in last month's fall classic.

The rotund Sandoval got his nickname after a regular-season win over L.A. in 2008 when the winning pitcher admired the Panda's acrobatic leap over the Dodgers' catcher to score a run.

As a kid, I rooted for the Panda's fellow countryman, shortstop Luis Aparicio.  My father, one of the original "Mad Men" of advertising, had enough connections with the Yankees to get me introduced to "Little Louie" at Yankee Stadium before a game with Baltimore.

Now in the Hall of Fame, Aparicio had great speed and was one of the great base stealers of the era.  I remember watching from the stands as he took advantage of Mickey Mantle's compromised legs.  Aparicio bounced a hard grounder up the middle and as Mantle efforted toward the ball in center field, Louie raced all the way to second with an easy double.

cccmedia wrote:

Some of the great MLB infielders have been from Venesuela.

That includes three-time World Series champion (and current free agent) Pablo "Panda" Sandoval, a third baseman who hit three home runs in one World Series game and starred for the Giants again in last month's fall classic.

    As a kid, I rooted for the Panda's fellow countryman, shortstop Luis Aparicio.  My father, one of the original "Mad Men" of advertising, had enough connections with the Yankees to get me introduced to "Little Louie" at Yankee Stadium before an Orioles-Yankees game.

   Aparicio, now in the Baseball Hall of Fame, had great speed and was one of the great base stealers of the era.  I remember watching from the stands as he took advantage of Mickey Mantle's compromised legs.  Aparicio bounced a hard grounder up the middle and as Mantle efforted toward the ball in center field, Louie raced all the way to second with an easy double.

I seem to remember Luis as the shortstop for the 1959 White Sox with Nellie Fox at second base, they lost the WC to the LA Dodgers that year.  Ven. does have a history of great ss and a great place to play winter ball.  And like Cuba, there is extra incentive to become an expat ballplayer.  It was plays like you described that had The Mick ending his career at first base.

mugtech wrote:

I seem to remember Luis as the shortstop for the 1959 White Sox with Nellie Fox at second base, they lost the WS to the LA Dodgers that year.  Ven. does have a history of great ss and a great place to play winter ball.

Correct on all counts.

Luis Aparicio got his revenge over the Dodgers in the '66 World Series playing for the Baltimore Orioles.

The Birds swept L.A. in four games with Jim Palmer and their pitchers allowing the Dodgers only TWO RUNS IN THE ENTIRE SERIES.  It is still the greatest performance ever by a WS pitching staff.  They shut out L.A. in Games 2, 3 and 4.  In Game 2, they beat Sandy Koufax, 6-0, in the last game ever pitched by the Hall of Fame lefty.

My "Mad Man" father got us tickets to Game 4 at Memorial Stadium in Baltimore, where we saw Frank Robinson beat the Dodgers, 1-0, with a solo shot to left field.  It was the only World Series game I've ever attended.

cccmedia wrote:

The Birds swept L.A. in four games with Jim Palmer and their pitchers allowing the Dodgers only TWO RUNS IN THE ENTIRE SERIES.  It is still the greatest performance ever by a WS pitching staff.  They shut out L.A. in Games 2, 3 and 4.  In Game 2, they beat Sandy Koufax, 6-0, in the last game ever pitched by the Hall of Fame lefty.

My "Mad Man" father got us tickets to Game 4 at Memorial Stadium in Baltimore, where we saw Frank Robinson beat the Dodgers, 1-0, with a solo shot to left field.  It was the only World Series game I've ever attended.

I think Don Drysdale lost that last game.  Two years later the fans in Forbes Field were still riding Willie Davis about his terrible outfield play in Sandy's last game.  Willie D:  "It's not my life, it's not my wife, so why worry?"

cccmedia wrote:

Now in the Hall of Fame, Aparicio had great speed and was one of the great base stealers of the era.  I remember watching from the stands as he took advantage of Mickey Mantle's compromised legs.  Aparicio bounced a hard grounder up the middle and as Mantle efforted toward the ball in center field, Louie raced all the way to second with an easy double.

Aparicio's predecessor at SS for the Sox (and the guy who arranged for the Sox to sign him) was Chico Carrasquel. I just checked Wikipedia and Chico's father was the first Venezuelan to play in the bigs (in the late '30s).

Carrasquel was the first Latin American player to start in an All-Star game.

I'll throw in Omar Vizquel as a slick fielding Venezuelan shortstop. Suppose if we go from a generational viewpoint, he was the best fielder I've seen during my generation (39 now).

As there has been mention of the Baltimore Orioles, wish I would of been fortunate enough to see them in their pitching hey days. 1971 four  20 game winners in one season won't be beat anytime soon. On a quick side note, did used to see Brooks Robinson sometimes playing tennis at the middle school I went to on the weekends when I was a kid.

Hi everybody,

I am afraid that we are drifting off topic here. 

Do note that this topic's title is : Better to do business- Panama or Ecuador?

Thanks

Priscilla 

Yes, we digressed.

Now back to the news.

Panama neighbors:  Costa Rica and Colombia.
Ecuador neighbors:  Colombia and Peru.

Panama presidente: Juan Carlos Varela, entrepreneur, b. 1963.  U.S. educated:  B.S., Industrial Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology,
1985.  Took office in 2014.

Ecuador presidente:  Rafael Correa, economist, b. 1963.  U.S. educated:  M.S., Economics, University of Illinois (1999), Ph.D., Economics, University of Illinois (2001).  Took office 2007.

Panama name origin:  In the 16th century when the Spanish Empire was establishing itself in Panama, it was named after a certain fishing village and its beach, both named Panama.
Ecuador name origin:  Named for the hemispheric dividing line or Equator.

Panama in the news:  The current expansion of the Panama Canal, started in 2007, is doubling the canal's capacity.
Ecuador in the news:  In 2012, Ecuador granted asylum to WikiLeaks founder and journalist Julian Assange at EC's Embassy in London.

(Source: Wikipedia)

Panama GDP per capita $7740.06
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/panama/gdp-per-capita

Ecuador GDP per capita $3653.00
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/ecuador/gdp-per-capita

Even if Panama's GDP (per capita) is higher, the tendency is to lose the advantage on the cost-of-living side of the equation if you are based in Panama City.

Almost half of Panama's population lives in the capital's metro area so a high percentage of that GDP is generated there.

Now consider the cost of living in the capital versus other places in Panama.

The cost of living in Panama City has appreciated steadily in the past decade and it no longer qualifies as a cheap place to live.   A realistic budget for a couple is $2,000 a month.  The same couple could live on a budget of $1,000 in the mountain town of Santa Fe, Panama.

Rent in the capital on a comfortable apartment in an appealing neighborhood is likely $1,000 a month.  You could rent a similar apartment on the Asuero coast for $600 or in Santa Fe for $500 or less.

Also, Panama is not a banking "haven" as in the old days.  When Panama signed an exchange-of-information tax agreement with the U.S. several years ago, it ended the country's "haven" status. (However, there are still many banks so it still is considered an international banking center.)

Source:  U.S. News and World Report, posted online 8-20-2013

cccmedia wrote:

Even if Panama's GDP (per capita) is higher, the tendency is to lose the advantage on the cost-of-living side of the equation if you are based in Panama City.

As a place to live, yes. And as a place to live, I would also object to Panama's climate.

But as a place to do business (especially if it is a consumer-oriented business), the higher GDP per capita indicates the likelihood of a significantly larger middle-class.

Bob

Which brings us to "Fun Facts About Panama":

1. In Panama, the shortest distance between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans is 50 miles. (unmuseum.org)

2. The world's oldest continually operating railroad travels from Panama City to Colon and back.

3. Senator John McCain was born in  Panama.  The fact that the birth was in the Canal sector, at that time (1936) considered a U.S. territory, enabled him to meet the requirement of being born in the U.S.A. and thus run for President.

4, Panama City is the only capital city with a rainforest inside city limits.*

5.  "A man a plan a canal Panama" is a palindrome (reads the same backwards or forwards).

Source (#2-5):  barefootpanama.com

*The Panama Canal requires a vast rainforest watershed to feed water to its locks system which uses millions of gallons a day.   (panamainfo.com)

If you ever visit Pearl Harbor I suggest a tour of the battleship Missouri, on whose deck the Japanese surrendered in September, 1945.  The guide will ask  "Why is the battleship only 123 feet wide?"  The answer is  "So it could use the Panama Canal"  Today only the older, smaller cruise ships can traverse the canal, but the widening of the canal could change that soon, but still the new WOW ships like Royal Caribbean's Oasis and Allure will still be too large.

PS  The 1971 Orioles lost the WS to Roberto Clemente and the Pittsburgh  Pirates.

mugtech wrote:

Today only the older, smaller cruise ships can traverse the canal, but the widening of the canal could change that soon, but still the new WOW ships like Royal Caribbean's Oasis and Allure will still be too large.

PS  The 1971 Orioles lost the WS to Roberto Clemente and the Pittsburgh  Pirates.

Well done and informative post, Mugtech.

China, which already has made big-time loans to Ecuador in exchange for major EC oil rights, has other plans in the works that could challenge the supremacy of the Panama Canal.

Chinese president Xi Jinping toured our region this summer, where he suggested that China, Peru and Brasil form a work group to lay plans for a railway link from Peru's Pacific Coast to the latter's Atlantic Coast, according to Chinese state media. (City Data Forum)

Several years ago, China promoted plans for an ocean-to-ocean railroad along a stretch of northwestern Colombia.

P.S. -- Yes, the Orioles lost to the Pirates in '71 and the '79 rematch.  In the O's only subsequent WS pairing against a Pennsylvania team, the Cal Ripken-Eddie Murray team of 1983 clobbered the Philadelphia Phillies in five games.  Jim Palmer, in his final WS appearance, won Game 3 in relief -- to this day the only pitcher to win a Series game in each of three different decades.

I have a hard time seeing how a transcontinental railroad would be equivalent to a canal. The US built the Panama Canal despite having had such a railroad for thirty-plus years prior.

However, Nicaragua is (once again) planning to build a canal that would compete with Panama's. There is considerable skepticism about it.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-2 … nding.html

Did not know that today's Ecuador, and Panama were once part of Colombia.

"After its independence from Spain on November 28, 1821, modern-day Panama became a part of the Republic of Gran Colombia which consisted of today's Colombia, Venezuela, Panama, and Ecuador." Source Wikipedia

Yes, unfortunately Baltimore also lost in 69 to the Mets, but we did have the entertaining Earl Weaver.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sqds9XCoQz8
Heads up to any youngsters, or those offended by foul language. Probably best not to listen. For anyone else this is one of the funniest arguments. Watch the ump call Earl out at around 2 minute mark for losing so many World Series.

BobH wrote:

I have a hard time seeing how a transcontinental railroad would be equivalent to a canal. The US built the Panama Canal despite having had such a railroad for thirty-plus years prior.

You're 100 percent correct, Bob, my interpretation that the Panama Canal's supremacy would be challenged was way too strong, and I retract it. "...may get some competition" would be a better way to have expressed it.

j600 in Baltimore, that was a remarkable piece of video of Weaver.  I know cursing is part of team sports, but in following this sport for half a century I have never been privy to anything like this tirade at the MLB level. You may have noticed Earl approaching Scotty McGregor on the mound at the end.  I suspect the main motive for the extended outburst was to get someone warmed up in the 'pen.

j600rr wrote:

Did not know that today's Ecuador, and Panama were once part of Colombia.

.

Part of the Panama Canal story is the USA encouraging a revolt in Panama and then using the US Navy to block the Colombian Navy from attempting to put down the revolt, resulting in the Panama Canal Zone until Jimmy Carter gave it back.  This was the same time period in which the USA beat Spain and took over the Philippines, killing a few hundred thousand Filipinos who resisted USA rule.  Some in the Philippines resent the McKinley and Teddy Roosevelt today yet, and after finally getting independence in 1946, changed the names of roads in Manila accordingly.

BobH wrote:

I have a hard time seeing how a transcontinental railroad would be equivalent to a canal. The US built the Panama Canal despite having had such a railroad for thirty-plus years prior.

However, Nicaragua is (once again) planning to build a canal that would compete with Panama's. There is considerable skepticism about it.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-2 … nding.html

It does appear that there is a great amount of doubt about the success and who will pay for the huge project.
The Chinaman in charge won't even say where he went to school, claims he is just an average Chinese person.  Average Chinese are not holders of stock worth billions.  So we are not at all transparent from the start.  The canal would be 178 miles long, and the locks in Panama allow the ships to move at about 5 miles per hour.  At that rate it would take a ship 35 hours to get through the canal.  At what cost?  Right now a 77,000 ton cruise ship pays about $4 million to get through the Panama Canal?  Why would anyone pay more to go through a longer canal?  The real question here is, if this canal ever gets off the ground,  who will ultimately be burdened with the debt?

mugtech wrote:

j600rr wrote:

Did not know that today's Ecuador, and Panama were once part of Colombia.

.

Part of the Panama Canal story is the USA encouraging a revolt in Panama and then using the US Navy to block the Colombian Navy from attempting to put down the revolt, resulting in the Panama Canal Zone until Jimmy Carter gave it back.  This was the same time period in which the USA beat Spain and took over the Philippines, killing a few hundred thousand Filipinos who resisted USA rule.  Some in the Philippines resent the McKinley and Teddy Roosevelt today yet, and after finally getting independence in 1946, changed the names of roads in Manila accordingly.

Quick read on a bit of the Panama Canal history.
http://www.cotf.edu/earthinfo/camerica/ … opic2.html

Probably should have said in earlier post that did not realize Ecuador used to be part of Colombia, or a Colombian territory. I knew Panama was.

@ccmedia. That was actually Mike Flanagan pitching, but McGregor was of similar size, and build, so an easy mistake to make. Anyway as the late Mike Flanagan was retelling the story years later, the call came on a balk. Weaver ran past Flanagan, asked if he "balked"? Flanagan replied "yes" and Earl just kept on going. Suppose Weaver was just in an argumentative mood that day.

Mugs: I agree with you that this seems unlikely to happen. Just as an aside, though, the speed limit imposed on the Panama Canal may be because of it's narrowness. This canal (if ever built) is supposed to be 520 meters wide -- almost 15x the width in Panama.

Can you imagine the excavation costs?

I dunno Bob. The Nicaragua canal is a signed deal with a Chinese billionaire backing the development. Could very well happen.

It seems that the Chinese have spent the last 20 years sucking everybody else's money out of the global economy, and now they're on a spending spree.

gardener1 wrote:

It seems that the Chinese have spent the last 20 years sucking everybody else's money out of the global economy, and now they're on a spending spree.

The Chinese press has been following closely Ecuador's program to introduce a new currency next month (December 2014) that is supposed to supplement the dollar.

The South China Morning News published an article a few weeks ago that began: "Ecuador is planning to create the world's first government-issued digital currency, with some analysts saying it may be a first step towards abandoning the country's existing currency, the US dollar -- which the government cannot control."

Presidente Rafael Correa has denied this "replacement" speculation.

EC banking officials quoted by the Chinese newspaper said the new currency would be "geared toward the 2.8 million Ecuadorians  -- 40 percent of participants in the economy -- who are too poor" to have bank accounts. At the outset, these folks would be able to use cellphones to make and receive payments.

Use of the currency will be voluntary and it will not be used to pay contractors or public employees, according to the July 2014 law authorising it.  Ecuador is in debt $11-billion, mostly to China.
(South China Morning News)

The sharp drop in oil prices has to have the current administration in Ecuador concerned. The November 27th Opec meeting should be interesting. If prices drop much lower, or remain around these levels, would almost think Ecuador would have no choice but to introduce their own currency. Be it digital, or the reintroduction of the Sucre.

j600rr wrote:

The sharp drop in oil prices...(if prices) remain around these levels, would almost think Ecuador would have no choice but to introduce their own currency. Be it digital, or the reintroduction of the Sucre.

So you doubt the word of El Supremo, who was quoted by Bloomberg as calling the speculation about replacing the dollar "absurd"....

"I would never have entered into a dollarised regimen, but it's the national currency," El Presidente said in an August 13th interview with reporters broadcast on his own website.  He said the costs of abandoning the dollar would be "catastrophic."  (bloomberg.com)

It does say a lot about the 21st century if the digital currency really is designed to help the poor who cannot afford a bank account by allowing them to use their cell phone instead.  Does the purchase and monthly use of a cell phone cost less than a bank account?  Even if one is charged a $10/month fee for banking in the USA, a cell phone is much more expensive.  What about in EC?

cccmedia wrote:

So you doubt the word of El Supremo, who was quoted by Bloomberg as calling the speculation about replacing the dollar "absurd"....

"I would never have entered into a dollarised regimen, but it's the national currency," El Presidente said in an August 13th interview with reporters broadcast on his own website.  He said the costs of abandoning the dollar would be "catastrophic."  (bloomberg.com)

I  take the word of any politician with a grain of salt. Have never argued with the fact Correa has done a wonderful job of moving Ecuador in the right direction, but have always questioned what the eventual cost of being so highly dependent on high price of oil, and dependency on China will be in the long term? Currently low oil prices, and a rising dollar leaves Ecuador in a vulnerable position, and unenviable position. Let's not forget any business or hopes they had of dealing with Russia at this point is quite questionable given Russia's current economic state. Oil prices at this current level is probably nothing more than an inconvenience. Oil prices remaining at this price, or lower for several years may leave El Supremo with no choice in the matter of dropping the dollar, even if he doesn't want to. People love to make the equation of how much the U.S. spends, and the debt they are building, and compare Ecuador as being in much better shape. Difference is the U.S. has a huge economy, and there is no shortage of people, institutions, and countries still willing to spend a ton of money in U.S. investments, and also buying U.S. debt. Ecuador not so much, they are running low on options.

j600rr wrote:

cccmedia wrote:

So you doubt the word of El Supremo, who was quoted by Bloomberg as calling the speculation about replacing the dollar "absurd"....

"I would never have entered into a dollarised regimen, but it's the national currency," El Presidente said in an August 13th interview with reporters broadcast on his own website.  He said the costs of abandoning the dollar would be "catastrophic."  (bloomberg.com)

I  take the word of any politician with a grain of salt. Have never argued with the fact Correa has done a wonderful job of moving Ecuador in the right direction, but have always questioned what the eventual cost of being so highly dependent on high price of oil, and dependency on China will be in the long term? Currently low oil prices, and a rising dollar leaves Ecuador in a vulnerable position, and unenviable position. Let's not forget any business or hopes they had of dealing with Russia at this point is quite questionable given Russia's current economic state. Oil prices at this current level is probably nothing more than an inconvenience. Oil prices remaining at this price, or lower for several years may leave El Supremo with no choice in the matter of dropping the dollar, even if he doesn't want to. People love to make the equation of how much the U.S. spends, and the debt they are building, and compare Ecuador as being in much better shape. Difference is the U.S. has a huge economy, and there is no shortage of people, institutions, and countries still willing to spend a ton of money in U.S. investments, and also buying U.S. debt. Ecuador not so much, they are running low on options.

Well said, only time will tell. Gotta wonder if the Saudis will continue to glut the market and for what ultimate purpose.

mugtech wrote:

Well said, only time will tell. Gotta wonder if the Saudis will continue to glut the market and for what ultimate purpose.

Which is why the OPEC meeting later this month will be interesting. Saudi Arabia is in a much more beneficial position than other OPEC members, in the fact that they can still be profitable at much lower prices than other countries. U.S. is still largest consumer in the world by far, but is becoming much more energy independent, and is also starting to convert to natural gas (albeit slowly). Only speculation on my part, but may be beneficial for Saudi Arabia to have oil prices at attractive prices to keep their U.S. market share.