Ukraine Crisis

JONRB wrote:

Good afternoon,

As a result of the potential crisis in Ukraine with the impending invasion from Russia, I am being left with a personal crisis.

I have an opportunity and have been offered a job in a favourable industry over in the Ukraine, to begin February 15th. With everything going on over there at the moment, I'm torn as to whether moving there is a sensible option right now. If I decide against the option to move, the job offer goes along with the decision to stay in the UK, there will not be an option to work remotely.

Any advice anyone can offer on the current situation in Ukraine would be greatly appreciated. Obviously I am following the news but they are not renown for always reporting the truth!

Thanks!

Just  note to add that the position is in Kyiv. The outskirts, not in the centre.

JONRB wrote:

Obviously I am following the news but they are not renown for always reporting the truth!

You got that right. I spent a while looking at what's going on in the region and most of it, IMHO, has nothing to do with what's in the news about Russian troop movements.
I have no clue if Russia will take areas of the country, but quotes from the US suggest they're only interested in some areas. I formed the opinion that's the places where ethnic Russians live.
Quotes out of Moscow say they're concerned at NATO military build ups surrounding Ukraine.

If you have a family, why don't you arrive alone first?  Bring your family after everything has calmed down.  If Russia does invade, I believe you would still have enough time to hop in a taxi and go west!  Your taxi can easily outrun a tank on the freeway.  Haha.  In any case, I cannot imagine Russia would try to take Lviv, a region with a strong anti-Russia sentiment.  Defeating the Ukrainian military is one thing.  Occupying the territory would be really hairy!

In case you want to exit Ukraine altogether at that time, do research first on which neighboring country would take you beforehand.  I attended a virtual town hall meeting by the U.S. embassy the other day.  We were warned Poland wouldn't let us in due to Covid-19.

There are 195 countries in the world.  The fact that there are only 2 embassies evacuating their diplomats or families, ie. the US and UK, I treat it as hot air, unless someone can convince me that the other 193 governments don't care about their diplomats.

I also reason that if Russia were to attack, they would have done so by now.  All of these talks, on subjects that have NOTHING to do with the sovereignty of Ukraine, would not give Ukraine to Russia!  Why even waste time talking?  Not to mention when the snow starts to melt in 1+ months, tanks would be stuck in the mud!
 
If the objective is to keep NATO at a distance, then taking Ukraine is actually counterproductive because to the west of Ukraine is Poland, a country of 38 million Russian haters!

Since these talks so far are producing nothing, I'd imagine Russia to up the ante by staging missiles in Cuba.  That would make the U.S. really serious about cutting deals.  Many of us were taught with only 1/2 of the story, ie. the USSR withdrew missiles from Cuba after Kennedy showed unwavering determination.  The untaught half is Kennedy had to remove the missiles he deployed to Turkey too!  Said differently, the Soviet deployment in Cuba was in response to Kennedy's deployment in Turkey first!

There are "ethnic russians" all over the country but agree more so to the east and far less to the west of Kyiv. My in-laws probably don't count but like many, many familes there is a russian great grandfather and all of the family speaks Russian first out of choice even though they are also native Ukranian speakers.

I personally don't think there will be a full on invasion and if there is there will be a surrender immediately. Ukranians (and Russians) are not fanatical. They will not die for one oligarch over another. Currently the Ukranian troops are happy enough to take US and UK cash and spend it on vodka. At least thats what my mother-in-law says....

Nevertheless, since we do have a choice and we have young children we don't want to take any risks for them whatsoever and so we are currently evacuating right now. If/when things stabilise we'll be straight back.

Once it turns to sh1t (and that could "just" be no food in the shops and no money in the bank due to panic buying) it will be too late. As for "heading west in a taxi" - I would imagine the roads to be completely blocked with others doing the same thing.

Michael1123 wrote:

no food in the shops and no money in the bank due to panic buying) it will be too late. As for "heading west in a taxi" - I would imagine the roads to be completely blocked with others doing the same thing.

If the fan does get dirty, history gives you a good idea what to expect. Fiction also has its uses.
Mass civilian movements are a great weapon of war. They clog the roads and, just as a bonus, blind stupidity really helps the invading forces.

https://warfarehistorynetwork.com/2019/ … d-caravan/

Want out? Great, we'll pack the kitchen sink so we can be really sure we'll mess things up.

Propaganda is wonderful, especially when it's in the mainstream press because people assume it's news.
Soviet missile in Cuba were a direst reply to Jupiter missiles in Italy and Turkey, and the messed up Bay of Pigs thing in 1961.

Same here - Countries bordering Ukraine have joined NATO and all have US troops stationed there. The US sent a load of aid ($5 million worth of weapons) to Moldova and are trying to get troops in there as well.



We could always have a chat about WMD in Iraq, but I prefer to discuss gas sales to Europe.



If you want to sell expensive shale gas to someone, you can't if there's a cheaper alternative that's easier to get. If you lose Nordstream and Nordsteam 2, then spike the proposed Israel/Turkey pipeline, you get access to a market and a lot of political advantages.

Not that I support Russia because they would do exactly the same if it suited them, but I would urge people to read the news in order to get a fuller understanding of what may happen - thus help you to make  informed choices about your expatriation adventure.
It seems watching the weather forecast has advantages as well - just as Hitler didn't for Operation Barbarossa.

The upshot is, don't decide what to do based what you read in the press because a lot of the story is missing and there are obvious lies in there.

As for politics, Aristotle's scribbles, Politika, affairs of the cities, has turned into affairs of how much politicians and the companies that buy them can make out of being utter swine.

Personally, I won't wait till invasion has taken place to leave.
My exit signal is when the German and French are also evacuating their diplomats.  The US and UK alone aren't enough for me because these 2 are hardly impartial to this crisis.  If there is an advantage for hot air at the negotiation table, these 2 will be pumping it!

BeHealthyNPositive wrote:

Personally, I won't wait till invasion has taken place to leave.
My exit signal is when the German and French are also evacuating their diplomats.  The US and UK alone aren't enough for me because these 2 are hardly impartial to this crisis.  If there is an advantage for hot air at the negotiation table, these 2 will be pumping it!

Sounds like a plan. You can't trust information from people who have a dog in the race.

Though not presented in writing during the earlier days of the current crisis, the U.S. has offered all along that it is willing to discuss missile deployments and military maneuvers while rejecting Russia’s core demands.
Russia used to reject any compromise at all unless the core demands are agreed upon first. Now for Russia to respond to these known offers and call them “rational elements” suggests Russia wants a way out too.
Putin needs to show to his people after being ignored by the west for years, he is finally reversing the tide.
Biden needs to tell our fellow Americans that he’s stood firm under the Russian pressure to defend freedom, etc.
Both sides go home waving a victory flag!
p.s. keep in mind that Ukraine can’t officially join NATO as long as it has a separatist region. Russia’s gripe is over NATO and Ukraine’s *unofficial* cooperation. They see it as a “backdoor membership”. I don’t know the details of these rational elements. If it excludes military cooperation in Ukraine, Russia essentially gets everything it wanted
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Russia Sees ‘Rational Elements’ in U.S. Proposal (Bloomberg 10:05 a.m.)

Lavrov said on Friday that Moscow sees some “rational elements on secondary issues” in the proposals the U.S. provided this week on Moscow’s security demands, even though key points were ignored. He dismissed a NATO proposal as highly “ideological.”
“It’s at least something,” he said of offers to discuss restricting missile deployments and military maneuvers near Russia’s borders. The U.S. and its allies rejected Russian demands that NATO close its door to Ukraine’s potential future membership and roll back forces from former Soviet states.
While he said Russia isn’t satisfied that the U.S. and its allies rejected Moscow’s central demands, Lavrov said the fact that the West has now agreed to discuss the other issues after ignoring Russia’s appeals for years shows that Moscow’s approach is working. The U.S. has said it expects Lavrov to speak with Secretary of State Antony Blinken in the next few days.

Now, it gets better.  The Ukrainian president has gone on record to criticize the U.S. for sowing fear and hurting Ukraine’s economy!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles … ium-europe

Seems like its behind a paywall - at least in the UK

BeHealthyNPositive wrote:

Now, it gets better.  The Ukrainian president has gone on record to criticize the U.S. for sowing fear and hurting Ukraine’s economy!

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles … ium-europe

from the link above wrote:

Zelenskiy said Friday that satellite images alone were insufficient to assess the extent of the military buildup and the situation hasn’t escalated.

I took some note of the public evidence the US used to justify their position. There's absolutely nothing that shows anything and one set of photos from 'the border', once you google maps the stated located, is roughly the same distance from Moscow as it is Ukraine.

Not to say Russia isn't up to something, just to say the 'evidence' shows nothing and those producing the evidence are known to have both lied and neglected to tell the whole truth.
The dates run parallel with US shale gas production starting , political problems with Nordstream, construction of Nordsteam 2, and the proposed Israeli gas pipeline getting spiked, I'll leave you to decided if that is a coincidence or not.

There's only one thing worse than politics - that's geopolitics. More lies and more deaths.
Please don't take this as supporting Russia, even though on balance I'm more inclined to believe them in this case, because I have every confidence they'd do the same given half a chance.

Michael1123 wrote:

Seems like its behind a paywall - at least in the UK

I created an HTML file and posted it on my Google Drive below.
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/ … sp=sharing

Panic and cash

https://m5dergi.com/one-cikan/abd-ukray … -acikladi/

Hi Michael,

Are you still in the UK?

I am still in Kyiv.  I received 3 junk mails from the US embassy yesterday urging me to leave.  The 4th one was a direct mail to me personally asking me of my plan to leave!  I simply replied that I'm not leaving.

Having been bombarded every few days with these emails, I can't help starting to question myself.

Leaving is actually the easy part.  The difficult part is deciding when to return after one leaves!  This crisis is not going to be over next week.  It can drag on for months or even years.  The Berlin Airlift lasted almost a year, for example! 

Are you moving away for good?  If not, what development would prompt you to decide it's safe to return?  I'm just comparing notes.  Thank you

OMG ! quick - get yer coat - Putin is going to invade on Wednesday

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl … esday.html

I didn't know Putin sent his secret military plans to the daily mail and I really wouldn't want to confuse that comic with a newspaper.

This total crap does have one bright side - It reminds us not to believe a word in the press. However, as a get out they quote THIS.
In turn, the idiotic German rag said they got it from the CIA, but Joe Biden's National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan backtracked.
He probably didn't want the secret out in case Putin found out.

However, I watched Mr. Silly-van on youtube stressing this was most urgent, and explained how he'd been telling people it was urgent for a good while.

I think Sullivan is trying to redeem himself.  He failed the Afghanistan evacuation so bad that he's declared he wouldn't let Afghanistan define his career.

Now he is doing the opposition to jump on every hint.    He needs some adult supervision.

Sex in the age of porn
Perv prince gets a naked massage
The art we fell in love to
Downing street Abba party
European hotels for a song
Harry changing his tune about Cammy baby
Oh, and Russia is about to invade Ukraine.

BeHealthyNPositive wrote:

Hi Michael,

Are you still in the UK?

I am still in Kyiv.  I received 3 junk mails from the US embassy yesterday urging me to leave.  The 4th one was a direct mail to me personally asking me of my plan to leave!  I simply replied that I'm not leaving.

Having been bombarded every few days with these emails, I can't help starting to question myself.

Leaving is actually the easy part.  The difficult part is deciding when to return after one leaves!  This crisis is not going to be over next week.  It can drag on for months or even years.  The Berlin Airlift lasted almost a year, for example! 

Are you moving away for good?  If not, what development would prompt you to decide it's safe to return?  I'm just comparing notes.  Thank you

Hi

We're back in the UK now. 4 bed duplex (thankfully just managed to cancel the rennovation) and brand new car left over there. I still think there will NOT be an invasion but with two four-year olds I don't want to take any risk however small on their behalf.

If I was younger without a family I'd probably ride it out. But I don't want to advise anyone to do that. At there end of the day there ARE these huge numbers of troops massing on the borders. What I think most people living there know and you probably know is that Russia invading would be about as crazy as the US invading Canada, the UK invading Ireland or Australia invading New Zealand.

I really can't see it but for one nagging doubt which is what if Putin believes he can get rid of Zelensky (who I utterly dislike by the way) and install his own undemocratic puppet without a shot being fired? Presumably that is one outcome that is attractive to Putin but he surely takes a risk that however unlikely, the Ukranians could put up a fight. The western press seems to be suggesting that latter scenario is likely but actually are the Ukranians really going to fight to the death for Zelensky and America/UK ? I don't see it at all but you never know.

I hope make the right choice for yourself and we all get out of this relatively unscathed.

Michael1123 wrote:

At there end of the day there ARE these huge numbers of troops massing on the borders

We know the US is engaged in a massive troop build up but I'm having trouble finding evidence for the same from Russia.
All I can find is a lot of words and warnings, but little actual evidence published to back up these claims.
The satellite images show tanks and so on, but these are overt and clumped together in an A10 cannon fodder sort of way, not spread out and hidden as you would expect from an invasion force.
Seriously, half a dozen air attacks would take the lot out - it's exactly what you wouldn't do if you were about to start an invasion.



I'll have a play when I switch my computer on later but the published evidence I've seen so far is a bit rubbish.
https://rochan-consulting.com/yelnya-ba … ars-image/

This is looking a lot like George wubbleU Bush and Georgia.
Sell a load of weapons, make a lot of speeches, then do a grand total of nothing once they've caused a load of trouble.

If anything happens, I can see Russia supporting the ethnic Russian separatist regions since the new US and Turkish arms sales destabilised the slow boiling conflict in those areas. Soviet Russian troops will get a welcome there, but the rest is way too much trouble to invade.
Invading is one thing, but holding it is a pain in the bottom if the local population doesn't want you there. The US and CCCP found that out in Afghanistan.

Seems the Guardian is after stories

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ … he-country

I can't see them paying because they're always pleading poverty, but you might get something to show your grand kids.
If you visit their site you might like to donate as they're very poor. Knowing they pulled 190 million quid in profitsmay help you decide how much you wish to give to this impoverished public servant.

Hi Michael,

Glad to know you are settling in comfortably.

I think I'm riding it out since I'm by myself.  Moving away is easy.  Deciding when to return is actually the harder part.  The standoff may not end for another year!

However, if Switzerland or China starts to evacuate its citizens, I'll leave too.
The 1st one is neutral and the 2nd one is on the Russian side.  They don't need to jostle for a position at the negotiation table.  If even these two feel unsafe, then I need to take it seriously.

So far the Swiss have said nothing, and the Chinese are warning their citizens to be vigilant but no mention of evacuation.

The biggest problem with a propaganda war is nobody knows what the truth is.
The various agencies fudge everything they don't want, make false claims and country claims, then leave the whole thing in such a mess it's impossible to find out what's really happening.
There are two things to note:
Way too many people believe utter crap; the worse the newspaper they get it from, the more stupid they are (Yes, I'm talking to you, Daily Mail readers)

I have yet to find any actual evidence the Russian will invade. There are lots of stories, a few satellite images that are known to be over two months old, and lots of amateur (maybe) videos of Russian troop movements, but all with absolutely no proof as to where they are.

One of the few things easy to confirm are US troops massing on the Ukraine border in response to the Russian build up - However, they did most of that before the Russians started so their intel must be bloody great.

Where are all these USA troops?  Accrooss the border from Russia?   When and how did they arrive?  What is your evidence?

Michael1123 wrote:

if Putin believes he can get rid of Zelensky (who I utterly dislike by the way) and install his own undemocratic puppet without a shot being fired?

This thought did come to my mind, but I can't figure out how Putin could prop up his puppet without a significant military presence in Ukraine.  So the penalty from the west would be the same.

Certainly, it's less investment to remove Zelensky in a coup than a full-on invasion on the battlefield.

The fact that Biden has indicated previously a minor incursion wouldn't incur a full package sanction, Putin may risk it.  Though Biden tries to walk back that statement later on, he's already shown his cards.

Thomson7254 wrote:

Where are all these USA troops?  Accrooss the border from Russia?   When and how did they arrive?  What is your evidence?

There were 160 National Guard soldiers over on the Ukraine/Polish border; they've now returned back across the border; the mass of the US reinforcements appear to be in Poland.

Cynic wrote:

Thomson7254 wrote:

Where are all these USA troops?  Accrooss the border from Russia?   When and how did they arrive?  What is your evidence?

There were 160 National Guard soldiers over on the Ukraine/Polish border; they've now returned back across the border; the mass of the US reinforcements appear to be in Poland.

and several other countries in the region. It's easy to find because they are advertising their troop build up and weapons sales.

Russian expansionism is terrible



No pro or anti anything as I can't stand the lot, but you can see why many countries are expanding their armed forces.

Fred wrote:

Cynic wrote:

Thomson7254 wrote:

Where are all these USA troops?  Accrooss the border from Russia?   When and how did they arrive?  What is your evidence?

There were 160 National Guard soldiers over on the Ukraine/Polish border; they've now returned back across the border; the mass of the US reinforcements appear to be in Poland.

and several other countries in the region. It's easy to find because they are advertising their troop build up and weapons sales.

In this case, it was published in Stars and Stripes (link)

From Cynic's link

On Friday, The Pentagon ordered an additional 3,000 troops from the 82nd Airborne Division at Fort Bragg, N.C. to Poland, where they could arrive as early as next week. That comes on top of the 1,700 soldiers from the 82nd that have already be dispatched to the southeastern part of Poland, not far from that country’s border with Ukraine.

The Pentagon also has sent 1,000 Germany-based soldiers to Romania to reinforce defenses there. The moves are aimed at reassuring allies worried about Russian aggression in the region. U.S. President Joe Biden has said there will be no role for U.S. troops inside Ukraine should Russia invade.

A lot of troops to do nothing. There's no way in hell Russia would invade Poland or Romania, and you don't need thousands of troops on top of the thousands you already have in the region to manage refugees.
But great for arms sales and a reason to stop Russian gas being sold to Europe.

I don't know which I disbelieve the most, Russian or western propaganda. Tough call there.

PS - Cynic - I need to borrow your username

The single greatest beauty about realising there is absolutely no point in taking sides is you can look at anything and everything without worrying if it's fits your point of view or not.

I think in weird ways - more brain farts than anything else. The above in mind, let me explore a possibility that might very well be utter rubbish, but maybe not.

Let's assume, for the sake of this theory, this whole thing is about Nordstream, Nordstream 2, and gas supplies into Europe (Cash, so there's a reasonable chance)
The US has been doing everything it can to spike them in order to sell its own expensive shale gas to Europe.

Let's say Putin's goal is to make the Americans look like a set of utter morons, not invade Ukraine.

If I was Putin and the above was my goal, I'd move a load of troops and equipment to the border, then fly a load of aircraft about, but deny I have any intention to invade.

Give that a few scare stories in the western press, then move all the troops to the border again, but concentrate them near disputed areas.
Let Biden bleat on about invasion for a while longer, then shift all the troops away.

Putin wrote:

Hi, world, these were just logistical exercises to see how quickly we could move troops if we ever needed to. I told you we never intended to invade

Biden looks like a bigger idiot than he is (No, I'm not a right winger - I think Trump was an arse as well), and nobody believes a word he says for the next few years.

Nordstream 2 back on track the the US can't do a thing because they look like twits.

I might well be totally wrong, but my brain insists on thinking around corners.

I'm shocked - NOT!

https://tass.com/politics/1403077

MOSCOW, February 14. /TASS/. Russian President Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will discuss de-escalation around Ukraine, security guarantees and the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline at a meeting, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Monday.

This is all about gas sales - Looks like Putin might well have scored a very nice propaganda victory and sorted out Nordsteam issues in one. As a bonus, assuming this is what I think it is (and if it's true), Putin has made Biden look like a senile old pillock.

Being a Russian propaganda site - there's always room to assume it's all a lie until it can be confirmed.

It looks like if Russia doesn't invade, by simply mobilizing its troops, it will have achieved at least these 3 goals.
1. NS 2 would be flowing
2. The US is offering to discuss where to deploy missiles
3. The US is offering to discuss military base inspection

All this for not getting a single soldier killed and after the west has ignored Russia's complaints for ~30(?) years!

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60386141

Russia starts to send troops back to base. Assuming this proves true, who the heck is going to believe Biden after this total cock up?

Looking like a Putin win in game of wits Biden went into unarmed.
I think Germany is getting Russian gas via Nordstream 1 and 2, but Biden will be buying soap to clean the egg off his face.

I should add - There's still time for Putin to pull a fast one and invade Russian majority areas, but he's on a far better horse if he makes Biden look like an idiot by not invading.

RT and TASS (Russian state controlled propaganda outlets I wouldn't trust to tell me the truth about if I was wearing odd socks or not) are gleefully mocking Biden and his supporting actors.

https://tass.com/world/1404247

MOSCOW, February 16. /TASS/. Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova has jokingly asked American and British media outlets to release a schedule of Russia’s "upcoming invasions" of Ukraine for the current year.

"I’d like to request US and British disinformation: Bloomberg, The New York Times and The Sun media outlets to publish the schedule for our upcoming invasions for the year. I’d like to plan my vacation," the Russian diplomat said on her Telegram channel Wednesday.

One out of a lot of stories they ran today.

Add quotes from China about how Biden is damaging Ukraine's economy with his scare stories, and it's possible I called this right.

If I did, Biden and Johnson are going to look like a pair of incompetent morons. Add the mess has caused issues between allies such as Germany and the US, and Putin has pulled an absolute flanker.

At the end of the day, if he ever intended to invade, the amazing position he's gained would be lost the moment a single Russian bullet was fired into Ukraine.
Putin might well be a lot of things, but an idiot isn't one of them, so I'm betting there isn't going to be so much as a drunken tourist crossing the border.

I'll bet Biden's team are running around like silly buggers trying to think of ways out of the massive lake of pig poop they ran themselves into. The midnight oil (or at least the midnight shale gas) will be burning in the white house for a good few weeks.

Again, assuming I'm right (Still time for me to be wrong), intel communities will be writing text books and training manuals about this for years to come.
We are at operation Mincemeat levels of brilliance here.