Electric Cars

You have to read about "Aliquota de Importacao  de Automoveis Eletricos " in the local press.

It is a given the Brazilian Tax Authority, or Receita Federal, will always levy taxes on any import passenger vehicle.  It's been done since the late 50's.

Beyond what the levies might be, it is an asinine idea to buy any kind of EV in Brazil. Here are some reasons...

1.There are aproximate 3200 charging stations in Brazil.  In California alone, there are 240,000 charging stations.

2.Every new manufacturer , and even some established manufacturers , that sets foot in Brazil  has had issues with availability of spares to service your newly minted purchased lemon. Talk about a 5-6 month sitting on the garage idle.

3.This is not the first time the Chinese dumped their product on us. The first time around three burned Brazilian consumers ( Lifan, Chery, Jac ). Chery escaped only because it was paired up with a Brazilian distributor who undertook Chery's manufacture in Country ( Grupo CAOA , who by the way handles most of Hyundai sales and manufacturing in Brazil.

4.Tesla is a non factor in Brazil. Not many people will pony up half a million reals to have a car they can't get serviced in country.

5.Your BYD and Great Wall are dumping their excess capacity. Just look at the complaint reports on lack of spares for warranty service. There are quite a few out there.  And the fact they have plants means squat. They won't be cranking out production any soon.   No local production equates to poorly stocked parts inventory.

In fact, even after Chery setup plant in jacarei-SP, they never made past 25% of the plant capacity.

6.PHEVs are a dog once you reach the 100 kilometer threshold.  You then have an overweight vehicle with and underwhelming engine.  They are ok on the city, but atrocious for your outing trips.

7.BEVs are a thing for Rich Countries.  The higher is a country's median per capita income, the higher is the addresseable market.  We are a USD 10,000, while your Scandinavian Countries range from USD 60-90k per year.

8.We have a thing called ethanol. Most newly made vehicles, and plenty used ones, run both on Gasoline and Ethanol.  They call them Flex Vehicles.

9.You want electric, buy a Toyota Hybird. A Prius, a Corolla, a RAV.  And call it a day.

@alan279, I am afraid that @sprealestatebroker is correct that the EV dream in Brazil is in the distant future past today's fog. 

Brazil has the blessing and curse of having large amount of petroleum resources and even Lula had to make tough tradeoffs between exploration and exploitation of this natural resource and environmental concerns.

Here is an example - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ex-regul … 34430.html

My hope is that the government of Brazil provide technical training in EV tech so that all the supply chain, construction, and delivery of EVs can come from Brazil to Brazilians.

Perhaps electric cars are not the solution?

05/25/24    Perhaps electric cars are not the solution?
   

    -@alan279

That's my thought.  I'm still very much in the minority on this, but while I think that there may always be a market for electric roadsters for bopping around town in urban settings, I think that hydrogen will eventually have to carry the main weight of vehicular transportation, particularly in countries like Brazil, the United States, Canada, Argentina, and Australia.  The economic reason is the same one that widespread high-speed rail will remain a dream in those countries:  the expanses of sparsely populated territory between the urban centers can't generate sufficient revenue to justify building out the infrastructure, either rail or charging.  On the other hand, the current fueling infrastructure can be more cheaply  and easily converted to hydrogen than it can be to battery charging, the fueling process will be less time-consuming than battery charging, and, while a hydrogen-based transportation network will certainly benefit from any technological breakthroughs that may come along, it's less dependent on them and more dependent on existing technologies than EVs have to be to replace gasoline and diesel powered vehicles across the board.

@alan279 Do you have an Electric Car?

I was never pro or con for electric cars except on my legendary return trip to the USA. when I arrived at Logan Airport and tried to get a same day rental. They were completely sold out EXCEPT for Electric Cars. At the last minute I was lucky enough to rent a car that did not have to be plugged in.

Roddie in Retirement

05/25/24 We had an Uber driver the other day who drives a Chinese EV, and naturally we were curious about the car. 

He was happy with it.  He gets about 300 km to a charge, and he has the perfect setup because he installed a high-speed charger in his house.  He still has to structure his day around the car:  he works in the morning, takes a long break for lunch at home in the middle of the day and to charge the car, then works in the afternoon and evening until it's time to recharge.  As long as we don't have a power failure during the day, anyway, he's ok.

Manaus is a good city to be in with an EV, because there's pretty much nowhere else to go:  there are no roads to the rest of Brazil except to Boa Vista and beyond to the Venezuelan and Guyanese borders, and there are a few nearby interior towns connected by secondary roads.  In a place like Belo Horizonte with a good road network to the rest of the state, every trip would be an expedition that would require planning charging stops in advance:  300 km wouldn't get you from BH to Governador Valadares and back, and I'm not sure that I'd even trust it back and forth to Ouro Preto, because of the mountains.

@abthree Ah the memories of a long life lived.

As long as we don't have a power failure during the day, anyway, he's ok.

Couldn't help but remember during my adventurous youth when I drove for UBER, but was pretty poor.  AT&T Wireless shut off my phone in the middle of an UBER ride. I had to remember the directions to the destination and fake it when we got there since I could not complete the ride on the phone.

Roddie in Retirement

@abthree Where does the hydrogen come from?

    @alan279 Do you have an Electric Car?

I haven’t owned a car in ten years.

Alan

  05/25/24  @abthree Where does the hydrogen come from?
   

    -@alan279

The two principal production methods at the moment are steam-methane reforming and electrolysis.  With its abundant natural gas reserves and extensive use of hydropower, Brazil is in a good position to exploit either:

https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/hyd … drogen.php

    Perhaps electric cars are not the solution?
   

    -@alan279

They are not economically viable as of now. Not saying they are not  the solution. 

Out of those 3,200 charging stations, 80% are in Sao Paulo.  Again, Brazil is 3,200 against California alone, at 240,000. And let's not forget, available and out of services are in this count.

And within the most densets areas of the city of Sao Paulo, we do not have large fuel stations with a footprint large enough  can avail a few recharging stations.  Every square meter of land and building counts towards inventory turnover. Fuel is a loss leader, but it is a quick in and out, including time spent inside a C-Store.  Fuel brings in about 75% of a retail fuel station sales, but its gross margins barely make past 5%. 

Electrical recharge stations will probably pay rent or do revenue sharing towards operators.  And if you count wholesale utility power rates, maintenance, and rental cost, the recharge pod might just not bring in enough money to make it worthwhile having it.  Not lucrative for the operator, nor the network operator.

And our commercial strips are nowhere near your Average Anytown USA suburban stroad. You can count on our suburban sprawls.   Those Power Center with or strip malls, we only have a handful out there.

High rise parking garages, then you need to have enough of those to make it attractive. 

The only viable way is to make a multi floor car parking garage, and you need to make it worthwhile in terms of rates and turnover for the operator, as rewiring and refitting the place is a very costly  undertaking.

The typical US Free Stand Single Family home has enough sunlight line of sight and rooftop footage too warrant a solar panel that brings in enough power, if only coupled with inverters and a lithium based power pack.  That is just as expensive as the difference you will pay in a BEV, in a place the majority of the roof footprint per household does not make it efficient enough to generate the proper stored wattage.

The Chinese can dump all the BEVs they want to. Only they will have to bankroll the charging network at a loss and in their own dime.

The profile of EV buyer in Brazil is amongst the top income earners in this country. 

The rest who can afford a R$ 200,000 car is content enough  with an hybrid model. That's Toyota.

It would be more of an impact if only we could import or make those Japanese Kai Cars.   

    @abthree Where does the hydrogen come from?
   

    -@alan279

About 95% of it comes as a byproduct from  processing coal, crude, natural gas. Petrochemical companies do a lot of it.

It can also by separated from water through hydrolisis.

Problem with hydrogen is not production.  It is storage and transportation.  To get it on a liquid form, it needs to be maintained at very low temperatures. 

And an explosion can be quite damaging. 

Toyota Motors has been toying around with hydrogen powered vehicles.

The country producing capacity is encouraging, only transport and storage are not quite up to par, just yet.

Great analysis of EV and Hydrogen powered vehicles esp. from a Brazil perspective.  I really like to see your perspective from people who are on the ground.

From a technology standpoint, although I love the idea of hydrogen car - worked with fuel cells since the mid 90´s - the issue here is that it is no easy way to generate and store hydrogen at scale.  There is no easy way to buy a machine at home to generate your own hydrogen even if it is for your own use.

The technology behind the Hydrogen Toyota Mirai is decent and would work in most cases.  However, without an ability for individuals and companies to be able to invest into generating hydrogen at scale and distributed where needed (like @sprealestatebroker says), adoption will be quite slow.

Storage of hydrogen in vehicles is also a problem as hydrogen can only be compressed at room temperature.  It will be hard to justify a large size tank on every vehicle.

Looks like the only current viable large scale development of hydrogen is as a replacement or addition to a battery storage farm.  Rather than storing electricity in a battery farm, it may be beneficial to convert the energy into hydrogen and oxygen (which could have other applications) and stored for future use.

WRT danger of hydrogen storage - although it is generally thought that an explosion would be dangerous, a hydrogen storage tank explosion will typically be less dangerous than its equivalent in hydrocarbons.  The reason is that hydrogen is lighter than air and all the heat will be directed upwards (like an exploding rocket).  The damage caused by the container explosion bits will be similar in both cases but in hydrocarbon case, the heat tends to expand around the container rather than straight up.

Hence, if you store your hydrogen high enough and have a net or meshing to catch debris, it would actually be safer than an equivalent hydrocarbon storage explosion.

Is there an opportunity for hydrogen here in Brazil? 

I think that there is an opportunity to drop a hydrogen storage / generation facility next to a hydro electricity station or a solar farm that has easy access to clean water (solar electricity during the day and fuel cell at night).

The technology is available - just need the country and people to invest.  If Brazil decides, it can be done.  But it is sure to upset someone somewhere....

05/26/24 Is there an opportunity for hydrogen here in Brazil? 

I think that there is an opportunity to drop a hydrogen storage / generation facility next to a hydro electricity station or a solar farm that has easy access to clean water (solar electricity during the day and fuel cell at night).

The technology is available - just need the country and people to invest.  If Brazil decides, it can be done.  But it is sure to upset someone somewhere....
 
    -@Pablo888

It's as if you were reading my mind.  As I was writing the above, I was thinking about Industrial-scale hydrogen generation facilities sited near every major hydro plant. 👍🏻

It's as if you were reading my mind.  As I was writing the above, I was thinking about Industrial-scale hydrogen generation facilities sited near every major hydro plant. 👍🏻
   

    -@abthree

Use hydro power to produce hydrogen? What is the hydrogen used for?

05/27/24   It's as if you were reading my mind.  As I was writing the above, I was thinking about Industrial-scale hydrogen generation facilities sited near every major hydro plant. 👍🏻        -@abthree

Use hydro power to produce hydrogen? What is the hydrogen used for?
   

    -@alan279

Fuel, with no carbon emissions.  The combustion product of burning hydrogen is water vapor.  If the energy to produce the hydrogen is hydroelectric, that's a carbon-free fuel cycle.

Fuel, with no carbon emissions.  The combustion product of burning hydrogen is water vapor.  If the energy to produce the hydrogen is hydroelectric, that's a carbon-free fuel cycle.
   

    -@abthree

Convert electricity to hydrogen, store and transport the hydrogen, then burn it?

Convert electricity to hydrogen, store and transport the hydrogen, then burn it?
        -@alan279

The conversion from hydrogen to H2O is not exactly burning but it tends to be exothermic... That's why the conversion rate is around 70%. 

That brings up a very interesting issue - that in addition to having to have very precise sensors to measure the H2 and O2 concentration precisely (or there may be a big boom), recombination typically needs a catalyst and when I read a long time ago - something expensive like platinum.

The technology is available and is not cheap - but with the proper business case, this is definitely more possible than going to Mars.

WRT, what is probably the best case for industrial deployment may be actually solar farm rather than hydro electric.  Solar has the unfortunate issue with being unable to provide power at night.  The hydrogen to electric generation can compensate at night. 

Although solar farms tend to be located in dry, flat, and sunny areas, there will also be a need for water to be easily available - which could mean that water would need to be brought to that area. 

O2 is also produced when generating hydrogen - which would be a waste to release in the air.  Generating electricity using fuel cells produces pure water that can be used for human consumption.

Don't get me wrong, I like industrial hydrogen but the more I think about it, the picture of a complex large oil refinery comes to mind. 

That's why the case for wind farms is so compelling when compared to hydrogen.

Or may be we should just convince Elon to build such a hydrogen generating machine and place one near to each of his starship launch sites.  Those starships will need to be fueled anyways - right?

@Pablo888 Wouldn't Megachargers be a simpler energy storage solution than hydrogen?

Went to the PF by my local mall, in Santo Andre-SP, and low and behold.  A couple BYD's were showcased on the mall's floor. 

On a hunch, I Just went quickly over the BYD complaint list, posted on Reclameaqui dot com dot br

Types of complaints seen.....

Expensive spares

Lack of available spares-  long wait fro spares

Portable charging cables not delivered with vehicle on a Dolphin @ BR R$ R$ 149.800,00. No reply from the Dealership

Recharging cable won't work

Lack of standardizing pricing

Systems malfunctions on newly delivered units

Free charges not being honored @ Shell Stations

The list is quite extensive, it shows about 177 complaints, so far.   They started selling vehicles here in 2023.

This is the same song and dance I learned customers are experiencing, over buying Made in China passenger cars.

Need I remind you that the only saving grace for Chery was being picked up by a Brazilian Distribuitor and Manufacturer, the same who runs the Hyundai brand in Brazil .  Weren't for that, Chery would be gone for good  by now.

There's a reason why 95% of the licensed vehicles you see are always the same ones. Gas/Ethanol powered, subpcompacts to crossovers, and within a few nameplates. 

A few past examples of manufacturers who vanished....

Chrysler, first coming....   They made excelent muscle cars then ( Dodge Dart, Charger, Charger RT ). And then they had a small subcompact, a copy from some British made model, here baptized as the Dodge Polara, with a four banger 1800cc engine.   Did not make it due to rust problems

Fiat had its share of lemons. The company was spared because it made its fair share of reliable econoboxes.

Alfa Romeo. The first Sedan model dates to the 60's under the FNM badge. Subsequent models were unreliable, due to faulty electrical systems ( the ever so finicky Italian Jobs ). 

Russain made Ladas made here in the 90's.  Lack of spares did them in

Gurgel.  National brand. Expensive, underpowered, ugly. No issues with engines ( mostly VW powertrains ).

Ford Galaxie/Ltd/Maverick.  They had a following, yet they  were gas guzzlers. 

Out here, pricing needs to be commensurate with size, having an entry level model is a big plus, and they need to be reliable. 

    @Pablo888 Wouldn't Megachargers be a simpler energy storage solution than hydrogen?
   

    -@alan279

Yes.  Battery storage are currently deployed at utility scale today because they are cheap to build - but they do not address how to recycle the batteries when they will die... And they will die at some point.

@sprealestatebroker, great update.  If someone needs to buy a car quick, what would be the best cheap car that he / she can get and at what price?

Thank you.

        @Pablo888 Wouldn't Megachargers be a simpler energy storage solution than hydrogen?        -@alan279

Yes.  Battery storage are currently deployed at utility scale today because they are cheap to build - but they do not address how to recycle the batteries when they will die... And they will die at some point.
   
    -@Pablo888

Do you have lifecycle costs?

Do you have lifecycle costs?
        -@alan279

Lifecycle costs for the batteries?  This will depend on cell chemistry and how frequently and deep the discharge but I am expecting a life of 10 years.  The cost also depends on battery technology, availability of raw materials to build, and the disposal costs.  Battery costs have been going down but if there are tariffs and trade wars, then prices will go up...  If you are looking for typical costs for utility grade battery storage, you can search for Tesla deployments in US and Australia.  This will probably give you an idea of the costs and business case for those.

    Do you have lifecycle costs?        -@alan279Lifecycle costs for the batteries?  This will depend on cell chemistry and how frequently and deep the discharge but I am expecting a life of 10 years.  The cost also depends on battery technology, availability of raw materials to build, and the disposal costs.  Battery costs have been going down but if there are tariffs and trade wars, then prices will go up...  If you are looking for typical costs for utility grade battery storage, you can search for Tesla deployments in US and Australia.  This will probably give you an idea of the costs and business case for those.        -@Pablo888

I think that Michael Barnard at Cleantechnica has researched this. He thinks that hydrogen is not economically feasible.

My question is: Why would you use hydroelectric power to generate hydrogen, transport and store the hydrogen, and then use it in a fuel cell rather than just electrify everything?

To my simple mind, electric wires and batteries and motors seem more efficient than the hydrogen lifecycle with lots of moving parts. What am I missing on hydrogen?

    @sprealestatebroker, great update.  If someone needs to buy a car quick, what would be the best cheap car that he / she can get and at what price?
Thank you.
   

    -@Pablo888

Well, in fairness, everyone has a specific desire or need. So no one size does fit it all..

I would stick with the following brand names...

1.Toyota

Everyone's favorite on reliability. Any model will do ).

For those who love pickups, the old Toyota Bandeirantes (the Brazilian rebadge of the  old Land Cruiser ) is a sure thing. Get the one with the Mercedes Benz engine if you can. Either the hardtop jeep or the pickup truck ( single or full cab ). They are made to last. 

2.Fiat

Since Stelantis, you have to pay attention to who makes the platform. It's not the badge anymore, it is the badge. All economy sized ones ( Uno, Verona, Chronos, Mobi, Argo, Strada Pickup  ) are fine.

3.VW

Avoid the full sized pickup truck ( Amarok ), as it has a lot of complaints against it.  The small size Saveiro is fine.

For most part, anything Diesel, stay far from it.  All other models are ok, including the Virtus ( until proven, chose the 4 Cyl over the 3 Cyl turbo ), T-Cross and other cross overs.

A prized engine is the old  boxy versions of Gol, Voyage, Saveiro, Parati, all built with the AP engine. This engine is much  sought after by tuners and street racers.   It's a rock solid carburated and aspired engine.

4.Chevrolet

Most models are fine. Chevrolet is not atop on terms of reliability, but spares are relatively affordable. 

If you can score a Corsa in good shape, that thing does not skip a beat, and will be a miser on gas.

For those who crave a room ride and a biffier engine, the Opalas and Caravans and it's sucessors ( Diplomata ), particularlky  those inline 6 cyl are a beast.   Avoid the 4 Cyl, 2.3 engines with the gear shifter in the column ( Caravan Sports Wagon ). Opala owners are known as Opaleiros, they are hard core aficionados.

The Opala's suspension does not score high points on stability, on hard corners it tends to throw its rear end.

All new subcompact and intermediate models are fine.   

Newer Chevrolet models tend to have poor reputation on  vinyl  upholstery and plastics. 

Old Monzas are worth restoring.  They are comfy and reliable.

Avoid the Mexican made Cruze.  They are severily underpowered for its size.

The S-10, the Montana, and the old C-10 pickups are fine.  Actually the old C-10s and C-14 are based on the 6 inline engines. 

5.Hyundai  . Any model, HB20s are very popular here due to its affordability. All SUVs are fine.

6.Renault. They used to have problems with spares availabilty, but that has since improved.  Some models are under powered, specially those 1.0 engines.  In all fairly reliable..  Avoid older Logans, old full sized sedans and wagons. The Sanderos and the KIWD are fine.

Most of what you buy branded Renault in Brazil is a rebadged Dacia.

7.Nissan.  Anything with standard shift transmissions.  Avoid automatic transmission powertrains.

8.Peugeot and Citroen.   Citroens had a poorly engineered transmission, it either went bust under warranty, or just about past warranty. They are a comfortable ride, thought.  On Peugeot, stick with the Series 2 ( 208 )

9.Ford Motors

On terms of reliability, the Ranger Pickup, the Ka subcompact, the Fiesta, and that old little Courier pickup are fine.

On old models

All Escort line up is fine, if you can get one in good shape.

As of now,, they are gone. Older models are fine. You can save a boatload by getting a Del Rey or the Corcel II ( and Belina ), if you don't care much about Power. 

You will pay a ransom for the old Coupe and Sedan Mavericks, but they are just fine. Those are pony cars. Just avoid the 4 Cyl engine

Galaxy/ Ltd /Landau are fine. They are gas guzzlers, and you might not find an ethanol model. But they are ok.

They are great for those who do not depend on their cars for everyday driving. They are boulevard rides.

Ford Brasil  absorbed the Willys Overland, and with that it got the Jeep, and a pickup ( Ford F-75) 

https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Willys-Overland_do_Brasil

Most of them are just fine. 

. 10.Chery Motors . Only models are the CAOA joint venture. The older models are junk, and the jury is out on the Tiggo lineup.

11.Lada. Almost impossible to find any decent.  The small SUV is solid ( The NIVA ) you will find it hard to source spares from anything LADA, unless you have a Russian connection.  Ever since the War in Ukraine, they re-started the NIVA production, which is a blessing..

12.Chrysler.  I would be wary of low volume  Jeeps, Dodge, and Ram low volume models.

If you can score for repairs on an old Dart or Charger, go for it. They are offered on inline 6 and V-8 models.

Avoid at all costs, Range Rovers, BMWs, newer Mercedes Benz.

TL;DR

Uber 

06/27/24 @Pablo888  Interesting article on a possible intermediate step to a hydrogen-based energy economy.  I hope that it will open for people.  I saved the link as a "gift", and so it should be available outside the paywall:

https://wapo.st/3L3ZDkQ

You all have excellent points however I doubt any ev brand can remotely climb the hills of the area I live in where streets randomly turn into 90° angles and

@Mikeflanagan Electric cars set new records at the Pike's Peak Hillclimb race a few days ago.

@abthree Hydrogen is much less efficient than electric for transport.

    06/27/24 @Pablo888  Interesting article on a possible intermediate step to a hydrogen-based energy economy.  I hope that it will open for people.  I saved the link as a "gift", and so it should be available outside the paywall:
https://wapo.st/3L3ZDkQ-@abthree

Thank you @abthree.  Interesting.... What I am not sure is how to launch hydrogen based businesses.  Is this in the industrial (like a refinery?), commercial (like smaller scale solar panel coupled with hydrogen for a city block), or utility (hydro - H2 combo) sector?

Obviously H2 in cars is problematic and even after a decade of trying Toyota is still losing money on H2 cars.  Energy density of H2 is just too low compared to battery and gas in cars.

The business case is better for non-moving applications but which market segment would benefit more from hydrogen...

I just wish that we had hydrogen fusion rather than use fuel cells

Keeping fingers crossed.

06/28/24 @Pablo888

Yes, it looks to me like a pilot of an industrial installation that the investors are trying to put together in a way that will let it be scalable.

Yes, we're going to need a range of technologies, including transitional ones, to get to zero (and then negative) emissions while maintaining and improving living standards.  The more creativity, the greater the likelihood of success.  Exciting times!

NFL player Tyreek Hill's house was heavily damaged by fire last Wednesday.

It was originally attributed to a "Tesla charging station" issue.

That has since been scrubbed.

Now, they say it's an "ongoing investigation".