"Global Recession" if China Fails to Stop the Coronavirus Spread

You won't have to.
All the worry about something that's mostly still a news push because Prince Andy hasn't been arrested, Brexit hasn't quite happened yet, and global warming hasn't fried us all, will give you a heart attack - Dead people have no chance of catching the virus.

Thanks Fred;

I wish I had your confidence, but I personally was quite badly 'hit' during the 2007 recession & suffered the pain of lossing quite a bit financially speaking.

Anyways maybe you are right, but its no sin to prepared for the worst.

Cheers

So move your money to certificates of deposit in insured banks, get a good night's sleep.

manwonder wrote:

Gd day all;

The 'Wuhan' (China) coronavirus is accelerating its spread all around the globe, and in combination with other risk factors it may end up causing a global recession.

a) What is your take on the current status of the spread.

b) If a recession does unfold, how can we prepare/protect ourselves especially for expat retirees like myself.

Any feedback will be appreciated.

Thanks & Regards.

Worst flu epidemic ever in 1919 gave us the boom days of the roaring twenties.

Hi mugtech;

As per wikipedia info below : 

After the WW1 ended, the global economy began to decline. In the United States, 1918–1919 saw a modest economic retreat, but the second part of1919 saw a *mild recovery. A more severe depression hit the United States in 1920 and 1921, when the global economy fell very sharply...after which maybe we had the roaring 20's like you say.

Cheers

manwonder wrote:

Gd day all;

The 'Wuhan' (China) coronavirus is accelerating its spread all around the globe, and in combination with other risk factors it may end up causing a global recession.

a) What is your take on the current status of the spread.

b) If a recession does unfold, how can we prepare/protect ourselves especially for expat retirees like myself.

Any feedback will be appreciated.

Thanks & Regards.

I wouldn´t  sell my stocks. I hate buying gold or putting my money under the mattress unless there´s a foreseen global depression. I would buy the dip on the monthly yielding dividend stocks!

robal

Let me see...
The sugar, drugs, and tobacco industries are killing by the millions.
Hundred get snuffed out by idiots with guns in The States, thousands by drug gangs in South America, tens of thousands killed in wars (even unreported wars most of the world never hears about), and a hundred or so die of a virus.

The latter makes for great headlines.

Of course the virus is a problem, but the authorities are on it and it's pretty well contained so far.

a) What is your take on the current status of the spread.

Not sure.  In regards to the virus it self, t is the big unknown

b) If a recession does unfold, how can we prepare/protect ourselves especially for expat retirees like myself.

Depends where and how your money is invested:

Currency:  Short term: The PHP will drop, which will give a better exchange rate if you are bringing in money from the USD, UK or AUD

The markets:  Short term: Depends what sector you money is invested in, medical will hold its own (if not improve) as it always dose.  Transport sector will blink, (overall all) but it will hardly affect those countries not flying to china.  Commodities will drop a little, but will hold there own.

Fred wrote:

Let me see...
The sugar, drugs, and tobacco industries are killing by the millions.
Hundred get snuffed out by idiots with guns in The States, thousands by drug gangs in South America, tens of thousands killed in wars (even unreported wars most of the world never hears about), and a hundred or so die of a virus.

The latter makes for great headlines.

Of course the virus is a problem, but the authorities are on it and it's pretty well contained so far.

Experts are saying damage to the global economy only about 40B. They aren´t able to predict the peak period of the spread. Some experts are saying it should be about the same as SARS. No need to rush to the banks and do anything about your finances. Johnson and Johnson purports their vaccine should be available in a year.

robal

I was about to rush to the bank as soon as they open, but I'll go out shopping and pop to a coffee shop with my wife first as it seems there's no rush.

time to invest in healthcare stocks

manwonder wrote:

Hi mugtech;

As per wikipedia info below : 

After the WW1 ended, the global economy began to decline. In the United States, 1918–1919 saw a modest economic retreat, but the second part of1919 saw a *mild recovery. A more severe depression hit the United States in 1920 and 1921, when the global economy fell very sharply...after which maybe we had the roaring 20's like you say.

Cheers

20-21 was Harding

He sunk the Navy.

He and his handlers had not figured out the multiplier effect of building the military. Plus you can use the military to take other people's stuff.

What followed after him was a huge bubble. They were buying up stocks with credit. There was never a real recovery. That did not happen until WW2.

Just got back from a very pleasant coffee with my wife but totally forgot to go to the bank.
Hope there isn't a run on the banks before I remember to panic.

Philippine Destiny wrote:

time to invest in healthcare stocks

...and tin foil hats

Fred wrote:

Philippine Destiny wrote:

time to invest in healthcare stocks

...and tin foil hats

and duct tape

mugtech wrote:

So move your money to certificates of deposit in insured banks, get a good night's sleep.

I did that ages ago. I wanted to park money with low risk and interest above inflation.
I don't make much but it's pretty safe and I don't have to mess around or worry.

Unless all the bank staff die of a nasty virus so I can't get to my safety deposit box, I'm fine.

Philippine Destiny wrote:

Fred wrote:

Philippine Destiny wrote:

time to invest in healthcare stocks

...and tin foil hats

and duct tape

Thanks for that - You averted a disaster.
Imagine being stuck in the middle of a virus outbreak without duct tape and a Swiss army knife.

I would like to offer my apologies to those who take the possibility of a global meltdown because of this illness seriously, but I believe the probability is zero and it's mostly newspaper hype, so I won't.

Fred wrote:

Philippine Destiny wrote:

Fred wrote:

...and tin foil hats

and duct tape

Thanks for that - You averted a disaster.
Imagine being stuck in the middle of a virus outbreak without duct tape and a Swiss army knife.

I would like to offer my apologies to those who take the possibility of a global meltdown because of this illness seriously, but I believe the probability is zero and it's mostly newspaper hype, so I won't.

there are so many more serious issues than this virus

still it's a good idea to have a bucket P38s on hand
https://www.lazada.com.ph/products/p-38 … gLGt_D_BwE

Recession is not meltdown.

Recession is a regrouping and realignment.

They happen and it's past time for one.

My Swiss army knife has a tin opener ... and a tool for getting scouts out of horses' hoofs.

Fred wrote:

My Swiss army knife has a tin opener ... and a tool for getting scouts out of horses' hoofs.

I had a Swiss Army knife and several other very nice knives. On the move over I cannot be sure where it happened, but at some point they were all stolen from checked baggage.

Philippine Destiny wrote:

I had a Swiss Army knife and several other very nice knives. On the move over I cannot be sure where it happened, but at some point they were all stolen from checked baggage.

I have two, one a bought here a couple of years ago, and another I stole from some mug's luggage.

We're overdue for a recession anyway.  Fiscal restraint has gone out the window, at least in the US, with excessive tax cuts and pressure on the Fed to keep monetary policy loose. Hence the markets are overvalued and we are at $1T deficits for the foreseeable future.

As a hedge against the inevitable correction, I follow the bucket approach and rebalance annually. I trim from funds that have experienced significant gains, putting that into a cash bucket (money market fund) so as not to have to sell when everything is down. Cash bucket has 3 years of anticipated expenses.

The party won't last forever.

pnwcyclist wrote:

We're overdue for a recession anyway.  Fiscal restraint has gone out the window, at least in the US, with excessive tax cuts and pressure on the Fed to keep monetary policy loose. Hence the markets are overvalued and we are at $1T deficits for the foreseeable future.

As a hedge against the inevitable correction, I follow the bucket approach and rebalance annually. I trim from funds that have experienced significant gains, putting that into a cash bucket (money market fund) so as not to have to sell when everything is down. Cash bucket has 3 years of anticipated expenses.

The party won't last forever.

Stocks down already in UK and Europe so I need you guys to invest in health care like Johnson and Johnson so that I can sell some shares and buy the dip on my monthly dividend stocks. Yeah, a big correction is overdue... You´re not supposed to sell when everything is down like year 2008. A lot of people lost their retirement funds on panic and haste in selling. Hold on and buy the dip!

robal

Retirement funds 70% into annuities, cds for my  nonretirement  holdings, too old to try to go through another cycle.

robal wrote:

A lot of people lost their retirement funds on panic and haste in selling.

robal

almost like it was planned that way

Philippine Destiny wrote:

robal wrote:

A lot of people lost their retirement funds on panic and haste in selling.

robal

almost like it was planned that way

I felt extreme fear myself in 2008 as I watched my stocks fell like a rock. And I thought that hell I already lost a lot of money anyway so it can go to zero but I´m not selling. I´ll buy more that now it´s pennies to the dollar on some stocks I´ve been waiting for a good entry point. I was lucky that in a short time they all recovered and I gained a lot on new stocks on my portfolio. There were stocks that fell up to 35% but never failed to pay the dividend. One company even increased them. Bedrock stocks (large cap): 80%. Biotechnology (very aggressive): 20%.

robal

Philippine Destiny wrote:

robal wrote:

A lot of people lost their retirement funds on panic and haste in selling.

robal

almost like it was planned that way

If someone lost, you can bet someone else won - Better than average chance the second someone was well placed to know what was going to happen.

Philippine Destiny wrote:

robal wrote:

A lot of people lost their retirement funds on panic and haste in selling.

robal

almost like it was planned that way

Image you need a T shirt really quickly so you can nip to the gate to get the parcel that just arrived, but all you can find is one that stretched in the wash, never ironed, and used to wipe up spills.
Any, Wilbur Ross, a man with a T shirt face ....



... says US companies should consider not ordering goods from China because of the virus. It's unlikely he had anything to do with the virus, but he seems to enjoy trying to spread fear.

Just taken a quick peek at social media, some virus related posts being stupid to the point of dangerous. One useless loony advocated drinking Dettol.

robal wrote:

Philippine Destiny wrote:

robal wrote:

A lot of people lost their retirement funds on panic and haste in selling.

robal

almost like it was planned that way

I felt extreme fear myself in 2008 as I watched my stocks fell like a rock. And I thought that hell I already lost a lot of money anyway so it can go to zero but I´m not selling. I´ll buy more that now it´s pennies to the dollar on some stocks I´ve been waiting for a good entry point. I was lucky that in a short time they all recovered and I gained a lot on new stocks on my portfolio. There were stocks that fell up to 35% but never failed to pay the dividend. One company even increased them. Bedrock stocks (large cap): 80%. Biotechnology (very aggressive): 20%.

robal

Maxed out retirement contributions in 2001, 2002, 2003, 2008, 2009, 2010, made a lot of money on those investments, too old and no current earned income to do the same now or in the future.  Good news is RMD's have been moved back to age 72 starting in 2020.

Thanks guys for feedback

I'm writing it down...;

a) Swiss army knife (wif tin opener)
b) Duct tape
c) Bucket (38p)
d) Thought i'd stock up on some sardine tins jus in case.

Btw :
The Hang Seng is down 5% in two days and the yuan is slumping as the coronavirus spreads

Cheers.

Yuan slumping means exports rising.
Maybe the US ultra right reports of the virus being manufactured by China were correct.

Still, this means Chinese made tin foil hats will be available at very low prices.

Fred wrote:

Just taken a quick peek at social media, some virus related posts being stupid to the point of dangerous. One useless loony advocated drinking Dettol.

For me, there just too much junk and noise on social media, which was why I deactivated my facebook account, which was my one and only social media account.

Good move. I never used it, think it’s inane.

I have FB but it's business rather than pleasure ... well, maybe business.

Fred wrote:

Yuan slumping means exports rising.
Maybe the US ultra right reports of the virus being manufactured by China were correct.

Still, this means Chinese made tin foil hats will be available at very low prices.

Chinese exports are likely to slump on fears. Whether reasonable or not, the stories and rumors are already circulating.

There are also rumors that it escaped from one of the bio labs there in Wuhan (there are a few and they are quite interesting).

Dany Shoham is a former Israel Intelligence Officer who specialized in bioweapons. Regarding the Wuhan Institute of Virology he states, “Certain laboratories in the institute have probably been engaged, in terms of research and development, in Chinese [biological weapons], at least collaterally, yet not as a principal facility of the Chinese BW alignment...”

Russian Scientists and politicians are the source of the stories that the US made it.

pnwcyclist wrote:

Good move. I never used it, think it’s inane.

Never used it either. I thought I was the only one. I see a lot of people glued to their smartphones with Facebook while on the streets or even while visiting me.

Fred wrote:

I have FB but it's business rather than pleasure ... well, maybe business.

For me, it´s pure business! I don´t use it or ever will, but with my shares since IPO I´m good.

robal