COVID-19

Bulletin #33

Total Confirmed Cases:  5044   Increase:  80
Total Deaths:                      245   Increase: 10
Total Recovered:                463   Increase:  47
Active Cases:                      4336  Increase:  23
Total PCR Tests:                 16973
Total ICU:                             126

In Detail:

DN                                                   +14
SD                                                    +9
Santiago                                         +3
Puerto Plata                                   +9
La Vega                                           +10
Maria TS                                          +1
Hermanas M                                  +4
Monsignor N                                  +11
Sanchez Ramirez                           +5
San Cristobel                                  +2
Barahona                                        +8
Valverde                                          +4

Don't read too much into today's figures due to limited testing included in this report period. But deaths and ICU cases remain low and there is always a correlation range with actual cases circulating.

The only thing to note is the advance in the Cibao and North Coast plus Barahona

Flattening?

PAHO recommendations adopted by DR from March were to contain the spread and keep infections and consequently deaths and ICUs to a level that could be handled by the medical community. The confirmed infection transmission rates regionally are low and the so called curve is modest but will extend until mid to late May before receding depending if you listen to PAHO or MoH. The MoH will issue projections and curves next week. The statistics give a decent picture even with the now 0.5% population test level achieved.

The danger imo will be if the controls such as curfew, non essential business operation and travel restrictions are not extended and the non compliance in some sectors are not addressed.

Considering all things, imo DR is doing a good job managing this crisis so far and the many additional test kits due will help manage a difficult situation to a conclusion.

I hope travel from the exterior is limited for the remainder of 2020 to avoid a new wave from imported infections. This is already being touted in Europe with external borders proposed as being kept closed for lengthy periods.

So again, this begs the question, if we are making an effort to expatriate to the DR and have made a sizable down payment on a townhouse in the DR already. Are we to expect it will be the end of 2020 or maybe the beginning of 2021 before we can return? Not knowing exactly, makes getting ready very difficult. We have a fully paid off house in the US that will sell as soon as we list it. But then where do we go? And we need 45 days (give or take) in the DR to establish a company there. Really makes it difficult for us to know how to move forward on this. So of course we can cancel the transaction (Under Act of God clause). And, Belize is one of several options. But we did choose the DR. Anyone have any suggestions?

Travel from the exterior to most countries will be restrictive for many months to come and especially throughout the Caribbean. Travel into the USA will be restricted too. Already happening. Several European countries have suggested closing borders until next year. Everyday one sees this virus spread and not be controlled, makes one wonder when and if travel will resume as before. My opinion was that DR travel could return in autumn cautiously with citizen, resident and some business beforehand with controls. But everyday makes us reassess seeing what others plan

If you are a citizen or resident of any country it will be possible but with controls. People wanting to repatriate will be allowed. Which country in their right mind would want to go through this a second time by allowing open borders and importing cases? DR like the other countries of the Caribbean just couldn't afford it again with a cost far greater than losing tourism income for a season or two.

So if you are a DR resident why worry?

We are US Citizen who have Sheltered in Place from the beginning. We are fully virus free. And have begun the process in the DR. But we wanted to know what to do at this point.  And the entry date for the DR keeps being pushed back and pushed back. From maybe August, to maybe September, to maybe October, to now... Maybe next year. A permanent move of the size of ours is not something you can do with 2 carry on suitcases. Ours will require Two - 20x8x8 shipping containers. So it is not a simple, "just go for it" situation. I am not in a panic. But we can't do anything about packing up, selling our house and starting the move until we know we will be able to move into our home there when we get there.

Unfortunately this virus has no timeline.....anywhere..... and doesn't listen to politicians or model makers.

How do you think we all feel locked up here in DR?

Nobody knows the future but it looks like mid to late May for us to be on the mend. Then the down slope. But it can still go haywire.

For sure we from DR won't be able to travel to other countries without control for some time so why should others expect to be treated differently coming here?

We just have to follow protocol and hope we beat the virus so a modest level of normality can return in the coming months.

As the other thread, you can ask questions on the effect of the virus on your residency with Lishali. DR will be as good if not better than ever when this is all over.

Análisis del crecimiento del COVID-19
en la República Dominicana   INFORME #28

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1bZrw4U … -kwLF/view

DR will be as good, or better if the expats return. Based on those decisions we as a family will see what we decide.  And, it isn't totally our decision. The seller may back out of the deal. Why? I have no idea. It's not like they have a long line of people waiting to buy their remaining units if no one can get into the country.  Or we may have to back out. Depends... But we do know that here, we will not be locked down as a country for more than 2 to 4 more weeks. And people here will go right back to their normal lives. Look what happened when Florida opened up the beaches. 10s of 1000s of people went right back the the beach within a few hours after the announcement.

Anyway, we are watching the news here and in the DR. And we will personally be impacted by decisions made by both countries. We just need to be welcomed there if we return.

Thank you for continuing to update these blogs.

Tiger

perhaps you will be allowed early entry to apply for residency
That is a Lishali question

When you have your paperwork in order,  your passport gets stamped for entry to apply

That may be sufficient to allow you entry

As to when - we all want to know that answer - every one of us
Either here or abroad
My wife (in PHL) asks your question regularly

Why two 20ft containers?
I used a 40ft.... car and furniture

I have a flight booked in middle of June to Punta Cana - see what happens. Fares are  cheap!

I find this quite an extraordinary series of events!

Ducketts

Extraordinary is certainly one way to describe it! Ludicrous is probably more accurate

Referring to what?

From the sound of it right now, they may not welcome you with open arms. Or at all in that time frame.  Hope you got one of the flights on an airline that is allowing for cancellations with no penalties.

Bulletin #34:

Total Confirmed Cases: 5300   Increase: 256
Total Deaths:                     260   Increase: 15
Total Recovered:               581   Increase: 118
Total Active Cases:           4459  Increase: 123
Total PCR Tests:               18261 Increase: 1288
Total ICU:                               135

In Detail:

DN                                                    +42
SD                                                     +42
Santiago                                          +32
Duarte                                             +33
Azua                                                 +1
Dajabon                                           +1
Espaillat                                           +24
La Altagracia                                   +7
La Romana                                      +3
La Vega                                            +26
Maria T S                                          +5
Monte Cristi                                     -1
Peravia                                             +1
Puerto Plata                                    +8
Hermanas Mirabel                        +9
Samana                                           +2
San Cristobel                                  +9
Sanchez Ramirez                            +6
Monsignor N                                   +6

Agreed

Ducketts

Análisis del crecimiento del COVID-19
en la República Dominicana  INFORME #29

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1X2chI- … VMbQN/view

They all can't be wrong.....and we are one small part of it until May or June when it could be over here.......long way to go and more of it in the future?

WHO Director-General's opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19 - 22 April 2020

Good morning, good afternoon and good evening.

Globally, almost 2.5 million cases of COVID-19 have now been reported to WHO, and more than 160,000 deaths.

We see different trends in different regions, and even within regions.

Most of the epidemics in Western Europe appear to be stable or declining.

Although numbers are low, we see worrying upward trends in Africa, Central and South America, and Eastern Europe.

Most countries are still in the early stages of their epidemics.

And some that were affected early in the pandemic are now starting to see a resurgence in cases.

Make no mistake: we have a long way to go. This virus will be with us for a long time.

There’s no question that stay-at-home orders and other physical distancing measures have successfully suppressed transmission in many countries.

But this virus remains extremely dangerous.

Early evidence suggests most of the world’s population remains susceptible. That means epidemics can easily re-ignite.

One of the greatest dangers we face now is complacency. People in countries with stay-at-home orders are understandably frustrated with being confined to their homes for weeks on end.

People understandably want to get on with their lives, because their lives and livelihoods are at stake.

That’s what WHO wants too. And that’s what we are working for, all day, every day.

But the world will not and cannot go back to the way things were.

There must be a “new normal” – a world that is healthier, safer and better prepared.

The same public health measures we have been advocating since the beginning of the pandemic must remain the backbone of the response in all countries.

Find every case;

Isolate every case;

Test every case;

Care for every case;

Trace and quarantine every contact;

And educate, engage and empower your people. The fight cannot be effective without empowering people and without the full participation of our people.

Countries that don’t do these six central things, and do them consistently, will see more cases, and more lives will be lost.

To be clear, WHO’s advice is to find and test every suspected case, not every person in a population.



Coronavirus: UK to have 'socially disruptive measures' until at least the end of the year

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus- … s-11977217

Coronavirus: US health official warns of dangerous second wave

US infectious disease chief: 'We will have virus in fall'
Infectious diseases chief Dr Anthony Fauci says he is "convinced" the US "will have coronavirus in the fall" because of how transmissible the disease is.

But he says the nation will be "much, much better prepared" in the autumn "compared to what happened to us this winter".

Fauci notes that the programme to deal with Covid-19 "is not one that is going to be, ‘turn the lights on in America, we’re finished'."

"We have to proceed in a very careful and measured way," he says, adding that the guidelines by the administration are just that.

Fauci also says that if the US does not adopt such an approach, "there’s a likelihood that it will rebound and the one way not to reopen the economy is to have a rebound that we can’t take care of".

"If you leave the virus to its own devices it will take off," Fauci adds.

https://eldia.com.do/salud-publica-esta … -covid-19/

However, he reiterated that for the last two weeks of May or the beginning of June, the system will be better able to specify a date that would infer the end of the pandemic in the country and the decrease in the contagion curve.

He argued that the decrease in cases will also depend on the acceptance of curfew restrictions and respect for social distancing, which is vital to stop the spread.

Thank you again Lennox!

Bulletin #35:

Total Confirmed Cases:  5543    Increase: 243
Total Deaths:                      265    Increase:     5
Total Recovered:                674    Increase:   93
Total Active Cases:            4604   Increase:   145
Total ICU: 135
Total PCR Tests:              19280    Increase:  1019

In Detail:

DN                                               +64
SD                                                +89
Santiago                                     +24
Duarte                                        +28
La Altagracia                              +9
La Romana                                 +2
Puerto Plata                               +1
La Vega                                       +1
Maria T S                                     +5
Hermanas M                              +7
Monsignor N                              +1
San Juan                                      +1
Sanchez Ramirez                       +1
San Cristobel                              +6
Hato Mayor                                 +2
Peravia                                         +1
Dajabon                                       +1

Sorry this is nonsense

Ducketts

And which part are you referring to exactly????

That was my question. If someone comes and says a general "yes" or "I agree" or "I disagree" or "That's nonsense" and doesn't refer to any statement, how can we know what they are talking about or who to.

So, wondering how climate will impact the trajectory of this virus. Recently reporting suggests, or expects, the virus to wane in the warm weather months in N. America and Europe for instance, In the Fall these areas may experience a resurgence in C19 because we are entering "flu season". More folks are indoors and in close proximity, wet cold weather, etc. I guess my question is whether DR normally experiences such a "flu season", given the more constant climate. I realize there are many more variables to consider but with all the talk of a second wave of this it just got me thinking of climatic impact to the numbers.
Hope everyone is doing well wherever you are hunkered down  :0)

Appears that hotter weather has no direct effect of the virus spread.  I know they hope it would.  Nothing to suggest here or elsewhere that it does.

Planner....
there is truth to the heat theory

Not on a human host but on -say- a doorknob
The virus has a shorter life 'off host' in heat

With a human carrying it - no effect whatsoever

The DR is showing less spread than some other countries..
cooler ones

Did you ever see the graph of the disease - the swath across the world
It clearly showed - Seattle, Italy Iran - all the hotspots with the favorable temp/humidity for the virus

Lennox has it - I can't find it

WW, there is not enough evidence to confirm warmer weather is linked to less transmission. Look at Singapore and Florida right now. Virus likes the weather there and is multiplying.

I agree there may be other factors that may explain why Europe and North America have been hit exponentially hard, but nothing clear yet just thoughts. You know my thoughts that natural immunity in the poulation against all manner of infections in the tropics may be a factor in transmission in the warmer less developed world. People here dont necessarily get jabs for other infections and the upper and middle class in DR were the bulk of the intial victims. Good medical care in the western world may weaken the body's in built defences to new threats?

Darwinism. The fittest survive.

The only certain way to stop transmission is to avoid contact or proximity of anyone infected until there is a vaccine or your country is clear  it appears

We will have to adapt and places of congregation of people will have to change or disappear for the foreseeable future imo. Examples: sports events, airports, aircraft and flying, cruise ships, hotels, bars, metros, spas, church services, cock fights, shops, malls, cinemas and so on. The virus loves crowds. It can jump to new hosts.

It is going to be interesting to see what happens here in DR in the next few days. Will the President seek an extension to emergency powers by Saturday? What are the plans for slowly opening business if any soon?

Todays numbers show one worrying trend. Higher daily numbers in SD where the densely packed barrios are.

Vaccine please....

I don't think Florida will fit your supposition. It's HOT and HUMID there all year round. Much like the DR. So if the virus is multiply there then it's not being hampered by hot wet air. Now go to the other side of the country to Washington State. Oh yes. Wet, cooler, high humidity.  Perfect place for the virus to grow and be happy.  Up North on the East Coast of the US, New York City. Yep. Again similar weather conditions. But the Pacific North West is worse for cold dampness. I have actually lived on both sides of the country from Southern tips to northern tips on both.  And in the middle as well. .

S ience does not yet support the hotter weather theory.  Just speculation.

I too am worried about the growth in the capital.  Way too much ignorance of what needs to be happening.

Yet the police slap a fine for not wearing a face mask inside my own vehicle!  Me, all alone and I was pulled over for not wearing the mask. I of course put it on when I lowered my window!  Absolute BS!  Paid the fine.  Just another estafa!

Yet they don't stop the hundreds in line at the bank not social distancing.

I wasn't so much speaking to whether the virus likes cooler weather, but whether DR has a distinct "flu season", given the warmer climate, and whether that will have an impact in DR. The problem in N. America is the flu season generally occurs in the cooler months due to conditions of closer proximity of people, the weather driving people inside, and the wet cool weather has an effect on immune systems. C19 will just compound the problem. Lot of other variables I know. Just wondering out loud I guess.

I have the same concerns, Rocky. We left one very different DR in February from the one that exists there today, less than 2 months after we left there. My concern is: What kind of DR will there be once this thing passes?

If Florida is any indication of the US mentality, once we are free to go back to our usual activities, I suspect it will be like the Florida beaches being opened back up.   In Florida people poured out of involuntary confinement and onto the open beaches again.

Análisis del crecimiento del COVID-19
en la República Dominicana   INFORME #30

https://drive.google.com/file/d/12hmbhs … P6qHX/view

Dominicans do not do well when stuck at close quarters. We are seeing an escalation in domestic violence and other stupid fights in various neighborhoods.   Once restrictions are lifted you can expect some of the population to go a bit crazy.  Yup, that is reality. We will need to ease into lifting when ever that happens.

Some potentially disturbing news just now:

At least 7,740 rapid tests for COVID-19 have tested positive

https://noticiassin.com/salud-publica-a … positivos/

........According to Health Minister Rafael Sánchez Cárdenas, the 7,740 rapid tests that have yielded a positive result against COVID-19 have not been integrated into the statistics because they are not 100 percent effective........

Now the question is where were those 7,740 positive rapid tests? We know a lot were in the prisons and we know some were followed with PCR tests.

Let's hope for some transparency in the next few days with adjusted reporting.

This is very concerning!

Bulletin #36

Total Confirmed Cases:  5749     Increase: 206
Total Deaths:                      267     Increase:     2
Total Recovered:                763     Increase:  99
Total Active Cases:            4719   Increase:   115
Total ICU:                              136
Total PCR Tests:                20270  Increase: 990

In Detail:

DN                                                   +56
SD                                                    +44
Santiago                                         +25
Duarte                                             +10
Puerto Plata                                   +10
La Vega                                           +26
Hermanas M                                   +4
SPM                                                  +2
Monsignor N                                   +2
San Juan                                           +4
Sanchez Ramirez                            +4
San Cristobel                                   +6
Barahona                                         +2
Azua                                                  +1
Monte Plata                                      +2
Santiago Rodriguez                        +7
Elias Pina                                          +1

repeat

Planner-
what is more concerning is that about 50% of the positive will not/may never manifest the symptoms....
They and we are totally unaware that % is infectious/contagious

This is why the masks are important
To protect an unaware 'positive' from infecting others.

A mask won't stop you getting it... eyes etc
but it does a better job stopping oral vapor from the infected person

That's what I read........

Análisis del crecimiento del COVID-19
en la República Dominicana  INFORME #31

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1V65L-T … DIcjp/view