COVID-19

The Gov in DR should follow:

Greece, probably poorest of EU members, has handled Covid with skill. Moved quickly into containment mode that worked. With 11m people, it has recorded only 2,534 cases, lost 136 lives. Now preparing  for 2nd wave later this year.

Ducketts

Laughable-far far too late it's as though they are passing the buck.

The country is in total disarray-all of this should have been done before these idiots took to the streets.

And as Planner said those who respected social distancing will now be penalised.

I would love to know of any Latin American country which has got this virus under control because according to WHO  there isn't one.

Ducketts

And I am told by people actually there, nothing has changed. A friend drove to Santiago this morning. Not even stopped and questioned!

My response was, I hope you can get  back home!

So what a damn joke. They announce this late, than do nothing about it.  Absolute joke.

Bulletin #40

Total Confirmed Cases:  6416   Increase: 123
Total Deaths:                      286   Increase:     4
Total Recovered:               1165  Increase:  172
Total Active Cases:            4965  Decrease: 53
Total PCR Tests:                 23979 Increase: 494     

In Detail:

DN                                       + 34
Barahona                           +1
Duarte                                +3
La Romana                         +10
La Vega                               +38
Peravia                                +4
San Cristobel                      +2
Santiago                              +4
Monsignor N                      +1
San Jose                              +1
SD                                        +25

https://www.elcaribe.com.do/2020/04/28/ … s-rapidas/

Minister says 145 thousand rapid tests have already been carried out

These tests should be free to.  If the US which has a dreadful Health service can do that I'm sure the DR Gov could as well.

Ducketts

I do not believe they have done 145,000 fast tests.  Not a chance.

By mid-July, there would be a 100% reduction in coronavirus cases in the DR, according to prediction

https://listindiario.com/la-republica/2 … prediccion

The COVID-19 Data-Based Innovation Laboratory indicates that the Dominican Republic new cases of coronavirus would be reduced by 100 percent by mid-July of this year.

According to predictions, by May 22 the coronavirus would have ended by 97 percent, on June 1 its disappearance would be 99 percent and it is estimated that by July 15 there would be no new cases of coronavirus in Dominican territory.

The study serves as continuous predictive monitoring of COVID-19 developments as a complement to monitor confirmed cases in the different territories.

The report on the Dominican Republic indicates that in mid-April there were daily increases of more than 300 cases, however at present there are just over 200 new infected daily.

Bulletin 40, corresponding to April 26, indicates that in the Dominican Republic there were at least 6,416 positive cases of coronavirus, of which 123 were new.

286 deaths have also been reported in the national territory due to the coronavirus.

The SIR model (susceptible-infected-recovered) is returned with data from different countries to estimate the pandemic life cycle curves and predict when the pandemic could end in the respective countries and the world, with Milan Batista codes and data from Our World in Data. Given rapidly changing situations, predictive monitors are updated daily with the latest data. Motivation, theory, method, and caution are found in this document.

Well isnt that just unbelievably optimistic.  I really cannot put any value on this.

Agreed, it's Dominican mambo jumbo


Ducketts

https://ddi.sutd.edu.sg/

Very little research shows this is an institute tracking the progress in all countries worldwide using actual data against a supposed model.

Perhaps you have a better analysis?

It's only as.good as the data it's fed!  And the assumptions made! 

Sorry I do not believe this.  I hope.its true.  Every part of me wants this to be true!

ANÁLISIS ESTADÍSTICO DE LA EVOLUCIÓN
DEL VIRUS EN LA REPÚBLICA DOMINICANA  INFORME #34

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1LiX9e9 … P9Z7B/view

Thanks for the analysis.

Can the numbers be trusted. I have heard from 2 different sources. At first I did not pay to much to it but when I heard it again perhaps it needs more attention. I heard from hospital staff complaining the death certificates are being changed to show cause of death, Covert-19 even if the patient died of some other cause.

StanR, the reporting in DR does not involve any politicians and is issued by way of a daily briefing transmitted live at about 10am by the Minister of Health and as part of his report he gives us the daily bulletin prepared by the Department of Epidemiology for the previous day up to 6pm.

It is detailed and I attach the web link so you can see all the 40 reports to date.

http://digepisalud.gob.do/documentos/?d … 20COVID-19

I personally believe DR is being far more transparent than many other countries and the reporting is not politically motivated or spun.

The testing levels are now much better and all medical facilities in the country have a legal responsibility to provide information on the virus to the MoH.

In reality once would expect DR deaths to be greater due to the health provision available but to date there has been little reported stress to a weak system and the ICU care patients have been low as have the use of ventilators. Nor has there been any mass graves or pressure on undertakers and here people get buried. Deaths are recorded and that will include cause of death.

There was a recent publicized incidence of a number of pneumonia deaths in Pimental in Duarte province and the MoH was asked to go and investigate the confirm actual cause of deaths through testing and at the same time they carried out mass rapid testing in the town.

When the Medical union makes a complaint, there is a response always and news reporting.

Have a look at University of Singapore link I posted yesterday showing reporting in all countries against reporting and modelling to understand that decent reporting even with lower testing shows how the virus is spreading. The DR report publicized in the press yesterday (post #651) was without the last two days and they were under the graph line.

Thanks Lennox for your continued updating and clarification.

TO CLARIFY -  I CLOSED THE OTHER GENERAL  COVID 19 THREAD.

AGAIN ALL POSTS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH ONE THREAD.

THE LEGAL  COVID 19 THREAD IS JUST FOR LEGAL ISSUES.  THIS ONE IS FOR EVERYTHING ELSE. KEEP IT ON TRACK, IF IT DOES NOT DIRECTLY RELATE TO THIS COUNTRY IT WILL BE REMOVED.

The Canadian Embassy in Santo Domingo has contacted me regarding the last repatriation flight to Canada for "the foreseeable future" . If it happens, it will fly out of Las Americas next week with Westjet being the carrier. Tickets are selling for $870.00 one way to Toronto. There are luggage restrictions and masks must be worn on the flight. No pets allowed. Any exhibiting temperature or flu like symptoms will not be allowed to board.

Buelletin #41

Total Confirmed Cases: 6652    Increase: 236
Total Deaths:                     293    Increase:     7
Total Recovered:              1228   Increase:    63
Total Active Cases:          5131    Increase:   166
Total ICU:                            144
Total on Ventilators:           59  (included en ICU total)
Total PCR Tests:             25368    Increase:  1389

In Detail:

DN                                                  +25
Barahona                                       +1
Duarte                                            +20
Espaillat                                          +18
La Altagracia                                   +2
La Romana                                     +14
La Vega                                           +15
Peravia                                            +2
Puerto Plata                                   +15
Hermanas M                                  +1
Samana                                           +1
San Cristobel                                  +18
San Juan                                          +13
Santiago                                           +27
Monsignor N                                   +6
Monte Plata                                     +1
SD                                                     +53

Thanks for the updates!

https://www.policianacional.gob.do/noti … plicacion/

Police add section to their app to report violations of measures by COVID-19

https://noticiassin.com/policia-agrega- … -covid-19/

SANTO DOMINGO.- The National Police reported that it added to its mobile application (link above to download)  a section to report violations of the state of emergency provisions during the COVID-19 crisis.

The app allows you to provide photos and videos that illustrate the violation of emergency provisions, whether by individuals, groups, or businesses.

The Minister of the Presidency, Gustavo Montalvo, who offered the information, said that the objective is not to saturate 9-1-1, which is intended solely for emergency care and that these days he is receiving calls denouncing non-compliance with the measures against pandemic.

The application will be active 24 hours a day and reports the complaints to the units closest to the events described. The anonymity of the users is, of course, guaranteed at all times.

Good news for some  I don't understand why people are being charged to get home.  I know in the UK there are no charges.  Surely this a Gov responsibility.

Good luck to those getting back home.  Europe we await you.


Ducketts

Looks like Puerta Plata is paying the price for these idiots

Ducketts

ducketts wrote:

Looks like Puerta Plata is paying the price for these idiots

Ducketts

No it's too early for the expected spike from the so called prophet. Those numbers would start to kick in next week.

Okay, let's watch this space!

Ducketts

Duckets -. In many cases flights were offered to those who already had return flights booked.  Any who chose to not take those flights are responsible for themselves! 

Those who had no return flights booked really are responsible for paying their own way.  I know airlines and some government's are making interest free loans available.

I had a return flights/tickets and at no time was I approached by  Tui Fly  for any repatriation flights.  I am aware they had one repatriation flight for Belgium nationals.  Air France had their last repatriation flight on the 21 April.  It was full and oversubscribed.  I registered with both the French and British embassies but apart from receiving polite messages by email we are however still stuck here.

I been to DR for over 6 years and I have never been here without a return ticket.

The real problem is there are not enough Europeans for any additional repatriation flights.  Of course the other ridiculous scenario is Trump and his mates don't understand what the word "Transit" means.
As a result most of us cannot fly via the US without a Visa.  C'est la vie so we will have to be patient.  Thanks

Ducketts

Yes you are in a more complicated situation than many!

ANÁLISIS ESTADÍSTICO DE LA EVOLUCIÓN
DEL VIRUS EN LA REPÚBLICA DOMINICANA  INFORME #35

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WzV5Mi … HCB5F/view

Bulletin #42:

Total Confirmed Cases: 6972      Increase: 320
Total Deaths:                     301      Increase:   8
Total Recovered:              1301     Increase:  73
Total Active Cases:           5370     Increase:  239
Total ICU:                             135
Total on Ventilators:          73
Total PCR Tests:             26981     Increase:  1613

In Detail:

DN                                            +94
Azua                                         +6
Duarte                                      +13
Espaillat                                   +4
La Altagracia                           +3
La Romana                              +9
La Vega                                    +13
Maria T S                                  +4
Peravia                                     +1
Puerto Plata                            +11
Hermanas M                           +3
Samana                                    +1
San Cristobel                           +21
SPM                                           +2
Sanchez Ramirez                     +1
Santaigo                                    +15
Santaigo Rodriguez                 +7
Monsignor N                             +4
Santo Domingo                        +108

Not good news.  I see the coefficient has gone up to 1.03

Ducketts

My advice is never to look at just one day figures but rather look at 3 day averages the 7 day averages to see trends.

Also look at the testing numbers.

ANÁLISIS ESTADÍSTICO DE LA EVOLUCIÓN
DEL VIRUS EN LA REPÚBLICA DOMINICANA INFORME #36

https://drive.google.com/file/d/14RXour … UU0Eq/view

Curfew and toque de queda  has been extended to May 17th!

Bulletin #43;

Total Confirmed Cases:  7288     Increase;  316
Total Deaths:                       313    Increase:     12
Total Recovered:              1387     Increase:    86
Total Active Cases:           5588     Increase:    218
Total ICU:                             108
Total Ventilators:                  54
Total PCR Tests:               28446   Increase: 1465

In Detail:

SD                                                +90
Azua                                             +7
Duarte                                         +2
Elias Pina                                     +2
Espaillat                                       +27
La Altagracia                               +5
La Romana                                  +15
La Vega                                        +12
Maria TS                                       +6
Peravia                                         +5
Puerto Plata                                 +5
Hermanas Mirabel                     +23
San Cristobel                               +9
San Juan                                        +2
SPM                                               +3
Santiago                                       +29
Monsignor N                                +6
Santo Domingo                           +68

Numbers are climbing and there is news all over about the plans to reopen slowly!  Good Grief.

Grim news.

This virus is spreading everywhere, coefficient up to 1.05  Not good

Ducketts

Released today apparently:

The first stage would begin on May 11 with the opening of vehicle dealers, mechanical workshops and small businesses.

The second stage would be scheduled to start on June 1, and includes the opening of beauty salons, barber shops, commerce and advertising.

However, the business sectors have requested that this opening be brought forward one week so that families can acquire the gifts for Mother's Day to be celebrated on Sunday, May 31, that is, before the proposed date for the opening of the markets.

The third stage is scheduled for June 22 and in this period the incremental reactivation of the economy would be contemplated.

Also, during this phase the holding of the presidential and congressional elections, scheduled for July 5, is planned.

The fourth stage would open travel agencies, hotels and restaurants, starting on August 10, and the fifth stage would include shopping malls, bars, discos and gyms, among others.

This week in an interview for Diario Libre, the economy minister, Juan Ariel Jiménez, confirmed that the plan was being worked on, and clarified that the Dominican economy was not completely closed.

"In evaluating what the Government has done, the Dominican economy is not completely closed. We allow activity, agriculture, industrial activity, those of the free zones, essential commerce such as supermarkets, pharmacies, mining, "said Jiménez.

“So, let's say there is a percentage of economic activity that has never been closed. What has been done is limited. In other words, no more than fifty percent of the workers have been told at the same time. They have to establish hygiene and safety protocols, ”said the official.

Thanks Planner

Where do international flights fit into all of this?

Ducketts

watch the numbers next week -
11-12 days after the POP debacle.....

That will Wednesday or so.... reports for Thursday/Friday