COVID-19

International flights require boarder restrictions to be lifted on both ends so can't be part of this program!

WillieWeb wrote:

watch the numbers next week -
11-12 days after the POP debacle.....

That will Wednesday or so.... reports for Thursday/Friday

At least they are ready, testing, isolating the positives into controlled properties and tracing contacts. It should be a peak just like we saw in SFM with deaths and a gradual decline.

Take note Duarte numbers are dropping day by day and is shows the severe approach wo

How depressing

Ducketts

Yes it is depressing overall. The trends are not good in the major population areas and certainly a deterioration since last week.

The report in Diario Libre about a plan to open up the economy in stages is a week old and not official and was resurrected to day in a new article.

What is far more relevant is:

"The President will inform in due course the dismantling of the measures," says Minister of Health

https://www.diariolibre.com/actualidad/ … BF18592740

The President of the Republic, Danilo Medina, and the High Level Commission for the Prevention and Control of Coronavirus, will be in charge of informing the population of the opportune moment to dismantle the measures adopted in the country to stop the contagion by COVID. -19.

With that expression, the Minister of Public Health, Rafael Sánchez Cárdenas, answered the question about when an opening of the country could take place, taking into account that other nations, such as Spain, where the disease has caused more than 24,000 deaths, have already started to allow certain activities.

"Spain has a different situation than the Dominican Republic has," said the minister, while acknowledging the right of other countries to make decisions they understand.

Every day the number of vehicles moving through the streets of Santo Domingo and other cities in the country is more notary, despite the fact that the restrictions imposed on mobility are maintained, which were extended yesterday by decree until May 17 to to continue facing the health crisis and prevent the spread of the coronavirus, which has already infected 7,288 people and killed 313 nationwide.

The Health Minister, who on several occasions has been a fierce critic of violations of distancing, today limited himself to saying that the Ministry of Health carries out the health process together with all the institutions that participate in the High Level Commission and that, In a timely manner, the clearing to be carried out will be informed. "It is something that the president (Danilo Medina) will report in due course," he said.


Spain is 2 to 3 weeks ahead of DR and still has about 3,000 new cases daily and under 300 daily deaths.

The MoH has every reason to be annoyed at the circulation taking place and we will probably see more contagion over the coming days in SD.

I agree they should be annoyed.  And the question is why are the president's orders NOT being enforced?   

All these people out for no damn good reason extend this for the rest!  All the expats online enjoying pool parties,.walking around filming, the locals.in their barrios enjoying coffee with the neighbors, arranging a hair cut or manicure are ALL part of the problem!

Politics!

The ruling party is weak and hasnt had the balls to impose the controls in the urban centres where power is decided.

The heath management has been over ruled.

The prospects of no contagion for the deferred July elections is looking less likely.

Relax controls and the virus spreads again.

No one is learning the lesson.

It started in January worldwide and there is no end in sight.

Many people still think our lives will start to return to normality soon.

The facts don't back that up, in the absence of a vaccine and still so much unknown about covid19.

You all should read this article about how life has changed in South Korea which is one of a very few countries that has  almost managed to eliminate covid19:

Coronavirus and South Korea: How lives changed to beat the virus

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52482553

Apply that to DR, a developing country.

Surely the virus has to be beaten here and then kept out until a vaccine arrives?

That is what we read all day.....

now DOING it and making it work..... that's the key !!

WillieWeb wrote:

That is what we read all day.....

now DOING it and making it work..... that's the key !!

This is what you have to do AFTER you beat covid19.

Very very few countries have got to that point. I can only think of New Zealand and China (and now TCI after 5 weeks of 24 hour curfew).

Getting down to zero is not easy. Some countries don't ever plan to do that and will try and live alongside the virus. Just imagine as an older person or a person with poor health having to live in a country without vaccine and active cases knowing covid19 is 'the reaper'.

Without a vaccine life will not be as before and the article describes what countries who wish to be virus free will have to do in the meantime.

I pray DR goes the full course for zero cases and plans to eliminate the possibility of imported reinfections.

It can be done as New Zealand, and has to follow medical advice as Greece also did and not politicians.

Will be interesting to watch how this all rolls out, as always. I  am limiting my expectations!  And unlimiting my alcohol.....LOL

Now, its almost  5pm on a Friday afternoon here, who wants to join me for an adult beverage???

I'd love to but you are in SD and we are in Sosua.  Enjoy


Ducketts

Here is some better news about DR short term development of cases and deaths based upon updated regular reporting by London Imperial College:

Study predicts COVID-19 transmission will decrease in DR

Research also indicates, with future projections, that the number of deaths will be less every week.
https://www.diariolibre.com/usa/actuali … MF18592718

Here is Imperial College article link:

https://mrc-ide.github.io/covid19-short-term-forecasts/index.html

ANÁLISIS ESTADÍSTICO DE LA EVOLUCIÓN
DEL VIRUS  EN LA REPÚBLICA DOMINICANA COVID-19 INFORME #37

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1f24LHK … CYm2I/view

Better news for the weekend.  Thanks

Ducketts

https://m.diariolibre.com/economia/el-g … olacha.net

Google translation of the above:

The president is expected to speak to the country soon.

The Ministry of Economy, Planning and Development has been meeting with various productive sectors to socialize their plans for the gradual opening of economic activities disrupted by COVID-19. In its edition of last Monday Diario Libre published the details of this opening plan that includes five phases.

According to sources, the plan would be officially announced next week. The first stage would begin on May 11 with the opening of vehicle dealers, mechanical workshops and small businesses.

The second stage would be scheduled to start on June 1, and includes the opening of beauty salons, barber shops, commerce and advertising. However, the business sectors have requested that this opening be brought forward one week so that families can acquire the gifts for Mother's Day to be celebrated on Sunday, May 31, that is, before the proposed date for the opening of the markets.

The third stage is scheduled for June 22 and in this period the incremental reactivation of the economy would be contemplated. Also, during this phase the holding of the presidential and congressional elections, scheduled for July 5, is planned.

The fourth stage would open travel agencies, hotels and restaurants, starting on August 10, and the fifth stage would include shopping malls, bars, discos and gyms, among others.

This week in an interview for Diario Libre, the economy minister, Juan Ariel Jiménez, confirmed that the plan was being worked on, and clarified that the Dominican economy was not completely closed. "In evaluating what the Government has done, the Dominican economy is not completely closed.

We allow activity, agriculture, industrial activity, those of the free zones, essential commerce such as supermarkets, pharmacies, mining, "said Jiménez. “So, let's say there is a percentage of economic activity that has never been closed. What has been done is limited. In other words, no more than fifty percent of the workers have been told at the same time. They have to establish hygiene and safety protocols, ”said the official.

----------------
Awaiting the President of the DR to confirm the above plan.

This a week old story (as the article says) that was debunked as a leak on an initial idea on how to reopen the country and the MoH was questioned on this yesterday in his daily briefing, and stated the President and his committee would decide on the timing when matters are right as posted in the main covid19 thread. Clearly things have changed since the date of the proposal when the trend looked positive but the situation has been getting worse over recent days with very disturbing trends as more people circulate.

The time is not right as was explained by the head of PAHO/WHO in DR to Noticias Sin yesterday:

WHO / PAHO Representative in the DR assures the hasty opening of trade would be an error

https://noticiassin.com/representante-o … -comercio/

SANTO DOMINGO.- Dr. Alma Morales, PAHO / WHO representative in the country, assured that these two weeks are not to open any trade, highlighting that the country must remain as it has been, referring to the measures taken by the government.

Morales said that a solid, strong, firm aptitude must be maintained and not yield to pressure.

"Even the same commerce and industries do not want a hasty opening, because the negative consequences will be worse than those that have arisen up to the lie," added the doctor while she was interviewed in the Stellar Emission of SIN News.

She assured that individual responsibility will play an important role in what has to do with the decrease in positive cases.

She added that from the organization he represents they understand about trade and economic pressure, but many international experts have already said this when referring to the key moments of the pandemic, "if the measures are not taken it will be worse because they never is going to enter the relaxation phase. ”

She pointed out that in 15 days the situation must be reassessed.

Bulletin #44:

Total Confirmed Cases:  7578    Increase: 290
Total Deaths:                      326    Increase:    13
Total Recovered:              1481    Increase:    94
Total Active Cases:           5771    Increase:   183
Total PCR Tests:               30102   Increase:  1656

In Detail:

DN                                                    +56
Azua                                                 +5
Barahona                                         +1
Duarte                                              +6
Espaillat                                           +4
La Altagracia                                   +3
La Romana                                      +11
La Vega                                            +15
Puerto Plata                                    +9
Hermanas M                                   +2
San Cristobel                                   +29
San Juan                                           +2
SPM                                                   +1
Sanchez Ramirez                            +17
Santiago                                           +23
Santiago Rodriguez                        +1
Valverde                                           +1
Monsignor N                                   +1
Hato Mayor                                      +1
Santo Domingo, E,W, N                +100

San Cristobel is trending worse daily. La Romana has a worsening problem and Cibao keeps adding.
Rapid testing yesterday in Monsignor N (Bonao, Piedra Blanca and Maimon) so look for spike in numbers in next day or so. PP should start showing any new infections from last weekend from tomorrow.

The only good news is the testing ratio of positive to negative keeps dropping with more testing.

As always, thanks!

This report is sobering reading:

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/sites/defaul … -part1.pdf

If they are correct, and all the modelling has indicated repeated waves but the politicians keep that quiet, life is going never going to recover to where it was for a few years at best,

This report which should be read in full gives 3 possible outcomes of what may occur:

¤ Scenario 1: The first wave of COVID-19 in spring 2020 is followed by a series of repetitive smaller waves that occur through the summer and then consistently over a 1- to 2-year period, gradually diminishing sometime in 2021. The occurrence of these waves may vary geographically and may depend on what mitigation measures are in place and how they are eased. Depending on the height of the wave peaks, this scenario could require periodic re-institution and subsequent relaxation of mitigation measures over the next 1 to 2 years.

¤ Scenario 2: The first wave of COVID-19 in spring 2020 is followed by a larger wave in the fall or winter of 2020 and one or more smaller subsequent waves in 2021. This pattern will require the re-institution of mitigation measures in the fall in an attempt to drive down spread of infection and prevent healthcare systems from being overwhelmed. This pattern is similar to what was seen with the 1918-19 pandemic
(CDC 2018). During that pandemic, a small wave began in March 1918 and subsided during the summer months. A much larger peak then occurred in the fall of 1918. A third peak occurred during the winter and spring of 1919; that wave subsided in the summer of 1919, signaling the end of the pandemic. The 1957-58 pandemic followed a similar pattern, with a smaller spring wave followed by a much larger fall wave
(Saunders-Hastings 2016). Successive smaller waves continued to occur for several years (Miller 2009). The 2009-10 pandemic also followed a pattern of a spring wave followed by a larger fall wave (Saunders-Hastings 2016).

¤ Scenario 3: The first wave of COVID-19 in spring 2020 is followed by a “slow burn” of ongoing transmission and case occurrence, but without a clear wave pattern. Again, this pattern may vary somewhat geographically and may be influenced by the degree of mitigation measures in place in various areas. While this third pattern was not seen with past influenza pandemics, it remains a possibility for COVID-19. This third scenario likely would not require the re-institution of mitigation measures, although cases and deaths will continue to occur.

Whichever scenario the pandemic follows (assuming at least some level of ongoing mitigation measures), we must be prepared for at least another 18 to 24 months of significant COVID-19 activity, with hot spots popping up periodically in diverse geographic areas. As the pandemic wanes, it is likely that SARS-CoV-2 will continue to
circulate in the human population and will synchronize to a seasonal pattern with diminished severity over time, as with other less pathogenic coronaviruses, such as the betacoronaviruses OC43 and HKU1, (Kissler 2020) and past pandemic influenza viruses have done.


It is very depressing reading especially for those of us of ascending years but we are not alone as the virus seems to be affecting younger people more and more too and people with differing health issues too. Worse it could impact on HIV, cancer, malaria and other medical treatments for many years to come according to articles in The Lancet.

Time to open a bottle........!

Agreed.

Interesting that restrictions in Europe are gradually being lifted.  Eurostar re-start their trains services from London to Paris & Brussels on Monday.
Ryanair and Easy jet are talking of restarting their European flights end of May and Iberia are planning to restart SDQ-MAD 1 July.

One can only hope matters move in the right direction.

Ducketts

I read that France had other plans and extended the state of emergency into July.

That said Europe has had this virus for 3 to 4 weeks longer than us. It will be interesting to see how this develops.

There is so much to understand about this virus .

There's another way to approach this. Here are 2 Doctors with decades in the field on Virus Study giving information about dealing with this virus.  https://youtu.be/vJprwe_rWeM

Those two have been discredited over and over!

A few articles today which perhaps indicate what is needed to start any gradual re-opening:

These two weeks are key to seeing the evolution of COVID-19 in the country

https://noticiassin.com/estas-dos-seman … n-el-pais/

SANTO DOMINGO.- Dr. Alma Morales, PAHO / WHO representative here in the country, assured that the Dominican Republic still cannot say that it is in a moment of flattening the curve because we would have to see more constants in the statistics.

Morales assured that these two weeks are key to seeing the evolution of the epidemic in the country and that to flatten the curve it is necessary to go down to minimum amounts of daily infections.

When questioned about the measures, she said that five provinces collect 75 of the cases in the country, so they must be decreased by phase.

In relation to rapid tests, she highlighted that the best test is PCR and the one recommended by PAHO / WHO.

PAHO / WHO: DR needs to carry out at least 5,000 tests per million inhabitants

https://noticiassin.com/ops-oms-rd-nece … abitantes/

SANTO DOMINGO.- To have indications of real figures on the coronavirus and its effect in the country, it is necessary to carry out at least 5,000 tests per million inhabitants, according to the PAHO / WHO representative in the country. she indicated that 2800 tests are currently being carried out, so the analytics must be duplicated.

She assured that we still need it and compared the country with Panama, which performs 6,000 tests per million inhabitants.

She said that "we need to see if really in the provinces that have low cases it is because there has not been access to the tests or because they are really containing the virus."

"If Panama with less than four million inhabitants is doing 6 thousand tests per million, the Dominican Republic could easily double the amount of PCR tests being done so far," Morales said.

The problem for DR is the testing machines and trained technicians. Apparently they now have the capacity for up to 2k tests per day so the 50k should be reached by about 17th of month.

Minister of Health: "To open shops you have to evaluate the expansion of a pandemic"

https://noticiassin.com/ministro-de-sal … -pandemia/

SANTO DOMINGO.- It is necessary to evaluate the degree of expansion of the pandemic for an eventual reopening of commercial activities in the country, said the health ministry on Saturday.

During a tour of various health centers in the Municipality of Jarabacoa, in La Vega, to determine whether additional measures need to be implemented against the spread of the virus, Rafael Sánchez Cárdenas reiterated his call for social distancing and to maintain hygiene measures.

According to the correspondent José Luis Rodríguez, during the visit, Sánchez Cárdenas supervised the areas of the Octavia Gautier Hospital, including the unit with which he is empowered to treat suspicious cases and the geriatric center Margarita Herrera.


I read between the lines of the above that any medical decision to open up will be after there is sufficient tests to evaluate the spread which is a couple of weeks away. DR has been following WHO/PAHO advice to date.

Not sure where that information came from

France re opens schools, shops and cafes on the 11 May according to Macron.  Many areas of France have not been badly hit by the virus  We will see of course see.

Watching Spain today amazing how people were allowed to leave their dwellings and go for walks  the places were packed with people.

In Germany Lufthansa also restart their flights, however obligatory to wear face masks.

Now that Boris is back at the helm I expect an announcement on Thursday of the easing of the lock-down.  With well over 100,000 tests a day being carried out there should better information coming through.  The one country we should all be worried about is the US.  There seems no let up.

Ducketts

Health authorities concerned about an increase in COVID-19 cases in La Vega

https://www.diariolibre.com/actualidad/ … GO18613360

Public Health authorities are concerned about the increase in cases of COVID-19 in La Vega , a province in which they have been since last Friday, in order to determine whether the implementation of additional strategies to curb the spread of the virus is necessary. .

In this sense, the press conference is suspended in which every Sunday the Health Minister offers updates on the cases of the coronavirus in the country, according to a source told Diario Libre.

This week, in La Vega, 101 new cases were registered, for a cumulative of 528 and 9 deaths.

The epidemiological report of this Saturday reports 15 new cases in the last 24 hours, while on Friday there were 12, on Thursday 13, on Wednesday 15, on Tuesday 38 and on Monday 8 new positives.

The province of La Vega is the sixth in the list of those that accumulate the most cases of coronavirus, so far.

The Minister of Public Health, Rafael Sánchez Cárdenas, headed this Saturday a tour of the Jarabacoa municipality, in the La Vega province, where he visited the Octavia Gautier hospital and the geriatric center Margarita Herrera.

This was obvious a couple of weeks back from the daily trends and I suggested so here.

Discredited? By whom? Not here in the States. And they are correct. But each person has to make their own judgement. Actually they are highly regarded in their field.. I actually hesitated to post it here, but I hoped it would help. It's the field we are in and I would like to see the fact aspects shared along with the fear aspects. .

Planner.... You are correct it is "youtube" misinformstion.

ANÁLISIS ESTADÍSTICO DE LA EVOLUCIÓN
DEL VIRUS EN LA REPÚBLICA DOMINICANA COVID-19  INFORME #38

https://drive.google.com/file/d/15X8WOK … kaY30/view

Bulletin #45:

Total Confirmed Cases: 7954     Increase:  376
Total Deaths:                     333     Increase:      7
Total Recovered:              1606    Increase:   125
Total Active Cases:           6015    Increase:   244
Total ICU:                             125
Total PCR Tests:              32025   Increase:    1923

In Detail;

DN                                                 +62
Azua                                              +26
Barahona                                      +3
Dajabon                                        +1
Duarte                                           +5 going down gradually
Elias Pina                                       +1
El Seibo                                          +5
Espaillat                                         +9
La Altagracia                                 +2
La Romana                                    +16
La Vega                                          +10
Maria T S                                        +8
Monte Cristi                                  +1
Peravia                                           +1
Puerto Plata                                  +1    watch this space in next few days
Hermanas M                                 +15
Samana                                          +1
San Cristobel                                 +26
San Juan                                         +9
SPM                                                +10
Sanchez Ramirez                          +7
Santiago                                        +33 
Monsignor N                                 +6 watch this space over next few days
Monte Plata                                   +4
San Jose de Ocoa                          +3
Santo Domingo, N, E & W           +111

Opening up in a week - you have to be joking!

The trends are not good! But testing is increasing. PAHO is right. in about 2 weeks we will see picture better.

That may be an aberration

for the past few days MTSanchez has shown ZERO new cases

today = 8..... might be a 'catch up'

Hard to tell w/ erratic reporting

Potential good news and not so good news on covid19:

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-scientists-will-know-by-july-if-university-of-oxfords-covid-19-vaccine-works-11981027

Coronavirus: Scientists 'will know by July' if University of Oxford's COVID-19 vaccine works

AstraZeneca are already beginning production at risk and ready to ramp up.

Italians Find Promise of Antibodies Remains Elusive, for Now

Talk of licensing people with the right antibodies, always ahead of the science, has faded as experts warn that they are still studying what level offers protection and how long it lasts.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/03/worl … italy.html

Looks like the immunity passport idea for international travel is a long shot for the time being.

I took most of yesterday away from news and social media and my computer.   I may do the same today.

We all need a break from this.  Being bombarded day after day with news both good and bad weighs on me. 

So,.I am painting my living room, dining room and kitchen!   

I will check in but I am trying to step back just a little bit!

Planner, you said a few days ago you were "unlimiting" your alcohol, and today you are painting.

Respectfully, strap a pillow to your backside to avoid a broken tailbone again?  Preventative measures, and all that...

Have fun!   

Hahahahaha thank you.  Please note:. Alcohol is not opened until paint cans are closed!   

Yesterday I had one drink when I finished up my day, sadly I was silly from it.  One drink!

Actually, the study of antibodies dates back to the 1960. How and why they develop has been widely studied. The 2 doctors in the video are well trained in their field. And the information they gave in the video was founded it solid research.  So we lose our ability to protect ourselves if we are kept in isolation. It was justified in the beginning because little was known about this virus. But healthy people need to get back out into the natural world, both for their own health and the health of others. Staying too long in isolation is bad in every way. Mentally, Physically, Emotionally, financially, etc.

We are not debating this!  It's been debunked countless times.   If you choose to carry on believing this that is your choice.  Go share it on some other site.

Timing of getting back to life will be decided by those in charge hopefully in consultation with actual scientists and doctors.   

Our responsibility is to follow the laws in this country.  It is our responsibility to educate ourselves and do the best we can under the circumstances.

With all due respect I'm not sure where this information comes from but I for don't believe.

Ducketts

Bulletin #46:

Total Confirmed Cases:  8235     Increase: 281
Total Deaths:                      346     Increase:   13
Total Recovered:               1771    Increase:  165 
Total Active Cases:           6118     Increase:  103
Total ICU:                              132    On Ventilator:  56
Total PCR Tests:               33377    Increase:  1352

In Detail:

DN                                                +72
Azua                                              +4
Dajabon                                        +1
Duarte                                          +3
Espaillat                                        +33
La Altagracia                                +3
La Romana                                   +4
La Vega                                         +20
Peravia                                          +5
Puerto Plata                                 +6
Hermanas M                                +4
San Cristobel                                +13
San Juan                                        +1
SPM                                                +1
Sanchez Ramirez                         +6
Santiago                                        +28
Monsignor N                                +16
Monte Plata                                  +2
San Jose de Ocoa                         +5
Santo Domingo N, W & E           +54