COVID-19

Secretary of Treasury in the US said international travel may not start up this year for US.

ANÁLISIS ESTADÍSTICO DE LA EVOLUCIÓN
DEL VIRUS EN LA REPÚBLICA DOMINICANA COVID-19 INFORME #39

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1grpT3o … _cr01/view

Marburg virus   no
Ebola virus          no
HIV virus              no
Rabies virus        no
Smallpox  virus   no
Flu virus               no - various including new strains and vaccines have to keep changing. no immunity
Dengue  virus      no
SARS  virus           no
MERS virus           no

Where are the vaccines and antibody immunity for all the above viruses?

Italy took 150,000 blood sample in Lombardy to assess immunity. That looks like a huge contemporary sample to me to make current conclusions that there is more research needed for any immunity clearance short or long term.

Let's stick to DR in relation to covid19 now your politically motivated thinking is debunked for good!

Agreed! Thank you.

You know feathers are ruffled when lennoxnev gets sassy.  Good job Planner and  lennoxnev.  Facts and DR related is a great thing.

UncleBuck wrote:

You know feathers are ruffled when lennoxnev gets sassy.  Good job Planner and  lennoxnev.  Facts and DR related is a great thing.

Uncle Buck, I could quote exact statistics on where we are worldwide and indeed states wide in the current situation. But all that really matters to me is  DR and where it will be in the weeks to come and how we deal with interaction with the world at large.

DR needs to tread carefully with limited health care provision. It has to control covid19 before opening up as hard as it sounds to all of us HERE suffering!

Sweden is failing with a death rate of 13% and many more daily case than here. Do we want that? For herd immunity you need 265m Americans (80%) to get the virus and based upon current death rates in US and Sweden between 15 and 34 million would die. That means many of your family or close friends die and your health service only deals with covid19 so may other people die too.

Those countries that open before time are experimenting with their populations and if they fail they go back down the snake to the start again.

There are no ladders with covid19 except pain to return to a semblance of normality. Just snakes and very slippery back to the start.

Wait and see.

As an indicator take a look at the Tennessee graph after over a week of easing restrictions.....vertical!

https://www.bing.com/covid/local/tennessee_unitedstates

I agree with you lennoxnev, and truly appreciate your analysis and explanations.  And the way you so eloquently break things down for us to digest.  Your time and effort are not going unnoticed.  We are still on the island, waiting for things to open up, at the proper time, to start our business back up again.  I have very little faith that May 11 will be the date.  Based on the numbers, I'd be shocked if the President actually made the announcement.  So we wait, and listen, and read, and shake our heads at so much nonsense.  Time will tell.

Would you be happy if they started easing restrictions when there are active cases in your neighbourhood knowing it can take up to 52 days to become negative?

Maybe you are a masacist and want another 6 weeks at home?

Or maybe you want Joe flying in and starting a new wave?

I cant be certain but the pain hurts everybody and a few rich hotel owners should dig into their deep pockets for the rest of the year to keep this resilient country ticking over for a better future without new waves of infection and allowing domestic and regional tourism to clear Caribbean islands and maybe Panama and Costa Rica too. If you panicked and left especially mongers and now want to come back....tough. You had no balls. Wait until 2021. Sorry for home owners who visit periodically but that is always a risk you take buying overseas. DR remains a great retirement home for the dedicated.

But now the world has changed forever.

That is not how it works.  I came here and tried to help. You asked me to leave.  So I will. But you can't say that no one told you. Today you will rejoice. But that will change.

I'm sorry your posts are ridiculous.

Ducketts

Tiger - I asked you to stop posting what is debunked.  Post it elsewhere.

All of us - stick to DR related please.  Yes we need to watch what is going on elsewhere but it MUST be relevant to DR.

Facts and scientific support.  We will remove the rest.

Bulletin #47:

Total Confirmed Cases:  8480     Increase: 245
Total Deaths:                      354     Increase:     8
Total Recovered:               1905    Increase: 134
Total Active Cases:            6221    Increase:  103
Total in ICU:                          126    On ventilators 61
Total PCR Tests:                34336  Increase:  960

In Detail:

DN                                                  +32
Barahona                                       +4
Duarte                                            +4
Espaillat                                          +28
La Altagracia                                   +3
La Romana                                     +7
La Vega                                            +7
Maria TS                                          +1
Monte Cristi                                    +9
Pedernales                                     +1
Peravia                                            +1
Puerto Plata                                   +11
Hermanas M                                  +2
San Cristobel                                  +31
San Juan                                          +1
SPM                                                  +2
Sanchez Ramirez                            +3
Santiago                                          +27
Santiago Rodriguez                       +5
Valverde                                          +17
Monsignor N                                   +1
Santo Domingo N, W & E              +48

San Cristobel, Mao, Moca, Monte Cristi on the radar.

Always less test results every Tuesday.

I have to say the amount of testing is rather pathetic.

For a country the size & population of DR there should be at least +25,000 per day.  It's clear they don't even talk about contact & trace.  Not sure where this country is going but I can only see downwards.

Ducketts

ducketts, if you read more widely, the limitation on PCR test kits is real and was initially rationed by major manufacturers to developing countries with priority given to those who paid more.

Then there is the problem of the required Cobra test machines and their output.

Then add the need to have trained technicians to undertake the required test for covid19. DR had only one back at the beginning of March.

DR is doing much better than many developing countries in Latin America, Caribbean, Asia and Africa. And please go back just a few weeks and look at the dismal performance of many very rich countries will all the possible equipment and technical skills including the UK! And then look at their case and death records!

The tracing is mentioned each and very day in the bulletins and moves from town and province with rapid testing for anti bodies taking place and people put into isolation if suspect.

'People who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones'. Nobody from much of Europe or the USA should try and criticize DR when they have been performing so abysmally themselves. The challenge in DR is far greater due to the education and mannerisms of the people yet we don't have one million active case nor record death rates anything like many western countries.

Be real!!

Such a crisis sorts out the real expats from the fake ones who 'want their cake and eat it' in a tropical paradise. It comes with the turf!

Don't try and take your frustrations out on DR - please. We are all frustrated by such a completely unique challenge.

I'm certainly not taking out my frustrations out on DR.  I see what I see.

Look at what happened in Puerta Plata a few days ago-disgraceful and nothing was done about -just waffle from politicians.

Not sure what you mean about genuine and non genuine expat.

I don't claim to be either-just a British tourist who like thousands of others are stuck in a country we don't want to be stuck in.  I thought in 2014 I might become one when I seriously thought of buying a property but in our case and I stress in our case, common sense prevailed and we didn't and therefore simply consider myself a simple tourist-that's all.

And of course the other problem is shops, chemists etc just seem to continue to run out of products.
I know this is not the case most of the time in France where even I now if I were there, I could do my shopping online and have it either delivered or shoved in the back of my car.  Of course I don't expect that in DR but every week I order stuff and most of the time it's just not available.  That is frustrating.

Anyway enough said we can agree to disagree.  We will watch this space very carefully, especially looking at the R factor which is still far too high.

Your daily posts are much appreciated by me and I sure many other people.  Thank you.

Ducketts

All things considered the DR is doing reasonably well.  All we need to do is look at the antics of.so called developed nations.  We are somewhat hampered by lack of resources, buying power, culture and education! 

And I second the thanks!  You do us all a huge service Lennox!  Thanks.

I think this article sums up how DR is nowhere near ready to open up at this time as was indicated in an article posted by Diario Libre a couple of weeks ago about a leaked draft on opening up timetable.

You can see if you follow the detail of the daily figures that the country is still on the upward trend and not yet at the peak as more testing reveals more areas of concern, and community spread has moved almost everywhere with scant regard for self distancing by some pockets in communities. We have several more weeks to go, as is accepted by PAHO, and more testing is needed to get a handle on the extent of infection spread and take measures to trace and isolate. We, as a community, are not ready to open up nor safe to travel nor to receive visitors without quarantines.

The danger is that political and not medical decisions could be made and the country becomes a covid19 long term breeding ground and then nobody will want to come here!

Epidemiologist says country is not ready to open the economy as of May 11

https://www.diariolibre.com/actualidad/ … DK18658038

Epidemiologist and health expert Carlos Féliz warned today that the country is not prepared from the health point of view for the reactivation of trade, even if gradually, as it is still in the active stage of the coronavirus pandemic , and is not yet in sight. flattening of the contagion curve.

The specialist explained that the plan in five phases that the Ministry of Economy, Planning and Development is studying for the gradual reopening of businesses is due to the fact that the Government is being “cornered”, due to the political pressure exerted by the celebration of the July 5 elections, as well as those of the country's productive sectors, due to the prolonged closure of their businesses.

"The President (Danilo Medina) is being cornered in two aspects, number one, because the problem of the pandemic has not yet been solved, and number two, which has an election process to which he must respond, so that his play a good role and not be left with a pyrrhic participation ”, he explained.

He explained that, from the beginning, he warned that the quarantine measures imposed to slow the advance of the coronavirus in the country were "a time bomb", from an economic point of view, since the country's informal market is based on what was produced on the day day.

He added that the informal market has been breaking the quarantine measures, due to the economic and social pressure that the closure of trade has represented.

"This planning (for the opening of trade) from May 11 to August is scheduled not according to the resolution of the problem of the pandemic but according to the electoral problem," deplored the epidemiologist, while warning The measure can be very dangerous, as it can lead to a resurgence of COVID-19 cases, as has happened in other countries.

"That is dangerous, because we already had the country in an electoral process where the virus was cultivated and expanded and in this process that is coming the same thing will happen," he warned.

The health worker affirmed that the virus in the country is in a community expansion and that the statistical data that is handled to date indicates that the pandemic is active, so it is not yet possible to project when the resolution of the pandemic will be reached in the country.

"The cases decrease or increase depending on the number of tests carried out, but all that indicates is that the pandemic continues, and added to the relaxation of the measures, no responsible physician can say when we are going to succeed in solving the pandemic," Felix warned, while he deplored the authorities' decision to hold an electoral contest amid the pandemic.

And we won't be the only country with continuing hundreds and more new cases every day this month but hopefully we can get on the downward path next month and to zero before many other countries by early July. Opening up without medical justification could create a far worse disaster for DR imo too.

Ducketts

This is a much discussed topic among expats - true expats
You may fall into another category

The Dreaded Expat Syndrome
Expat Challenge Day 9:  Respond to the following quote:

"Expat Syndrome’ is a condition whereby many expatriates see mostly either the best of their own nationality & the worst of the locals, or see the opposite.” -T Crossley

It really explains how those who 'resist' the local culture and habits have more difficulty acclimating to their new country

Not unusual at all

lennox, along with me and others , have acclimated.....
you have no choice really if you live here

if not.... you pull your eyelashes out - then the eyebrows

hahahaha

Today they announced massive rapid testing scheduled for tomorrow in Puerto Plata with teams going door to door in areas where participants in last Sunday's mess supposedly came.from.  Testing is free and not sure how optional.

Let's see what happens.

Government evaluates extending until (end of) June Stay at Home and PHASE

https://hoy.com.do/gobierno-evalua-exte … sa-y-fase/

The Dominican government is evaluating the possibility of extending for one more month the social aid of the Stay at Home programs and the Solidarity Assistance Fund for Employees (FASE), informed the Minister of Finance, Donald Guerrero.

These programs initially created to operate during April and May, could be extended to June, in which case, President Danilo Medina would make the announcement at the time, Guerrero explained during an interview with the Hoy Hoy program that is broadcast by Color Vision...................

Read into that what you will but for me it says that any reopening is going to be slow and later maybe starting later this month if the health situation improves.

Diario Libre interpreted the interview on Hoy (from which the above report comes) differently: 

Government estimates that reactivation measures could begin in the second half of May

https://www.diariolibre.com/economia/go … GJ18664301

The Minister of Finance, Donald Guerrero, said that the government is still evaluating the economic reactivation measures, once the health crisis is overcome by COVID-19, and estimated that they could begin to be applied by the second half of May.

"Right now what we are working on is the economic reactivation measures that could begin to be applied in the second half of this month," said the head of the public finance office during an interview on the "Hoy Nuestro" program, that transmits Color Vision.

Guerrero recalled that the Dominican authorities are committed to guaranteeing an opening of the economy that can be sustainable over time. However, he stressed that "we cannot enthusiastically announce a date, without the consent of the health team that is evaluating the evolution of the pandemic day by day.".......

Government denies that reopening of economy begins on May 11

https://listindiario.com/economia/2020/ … 11-de-mayo

The Minister of the Presidency, Gustavo Montalvo, said on Tuesday that the information that the Dominican economy will reopen on May 11 is false , highlighting that the truth is that the High Level Commission to confront COVID-19 is working on a project for the gradual reopening of commercial, economic and institutional activity, but a date has not yet been established.

He highlighted that the factors that are being taken into account for the design of this reopening plan are two: preserve the health of the population and preserve the economy of families. 

The official clarified that the Government is studying different alternatives, taking into account both the models that other countries are adopting and the Dominican epidemiological and economic reality. He added that this investigation phase has not yet concluded, so any information that alludes to a reopening on May 11 or any other specific date is incorrect.

“It is important that we continue as before. That businesses remain closed except those with permission to operate. Let people stay in their houses as long as possible. That the curfew is respected. And that for information, you go to official sources, "he said.

Montalvo assured that when there is a final decision on the reopening plan, it will be shared in its entirety with Dominican society and, of course, with the media.

Yup. This was expected when numbers are going up!

ANÁLISIS ESTADÍSTICO DE LA EVOLUCIÓN
DEL VIRUS EN LA REPÚBLICA DOMINICANA COVID-19 INFORME #40

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1AwiA1l … Rsjtw/view

planner wrote:

Today they announced massive rapid testing scheduled for tomorrow in Puerto Plata with teams going door to door in areas where participants in last Sunday's mess supposedly came.from.  Testing is free and not sure how optional.

Let's see what happens.

This is 11 days out from the gathering
that's the accepted time frame for manifesting symptoms

Bulletin #48

Confirmed New Cases:   8807     Increase:  327
Total Deaths:                      362      Increase:      8
Total Recovered:              1989     Increase:     82
Total Active Cases:           6456     Increase:    237
Total ICU                               134    On Ventilators:   55
Total PCR Tests:                35340   Increase: 1004

Distribution of New Cases:

DN                                             +103
Azua                                           +1
Duarte                                       +30
Espaillat                                     +2
La Altagracia                             +7
La Romana                                +11
La Vega                                      +42
Peravia                                       +1
Puerto Plata                              +5
San Cristobel                             +13
San Juan                                     +2
Sanchez Ramirez                      +6
Santiago                                     +29
Monsignor N                              +4
Monte Plata                                +1
Santo Domingo                         +70

Still a lot of cases!

ANÁLISIS ESTADÍSTICO DE LA EVOLUCIÓN
DEL VIRUS EN LA REPÚBLICA DOMINICANA COVID-19  INFORME #41

https://drive.google.com/file/d/135xM89 … VnsDy/view

Figure 15 suggests a problem to me with a higher percentage of positive tests of recent.

Equally there is no clear indication the spread is going to abate any time soon.

Perhaps this indicates the 'lid is just on' at present but not tight enough to reduce the general rise, but if there is more relaxation then it could become very bad quickly.

Bulletin #49

Total Confirmed Cases:  9095     Increase:  288
Total Deaths:                      373     Increase:     11
Total Recovered:              2064     Increase:     75
Total Active Cases:           6658     Increase:    202
Total ICU:                              133   On Ventilator:   60
Total PCR Tests:                36959  Increase:   1619

Distribution of New Cases:

DN                                               +51
Azua                                             +5
Duarte                                         +15
Espaillat                                       +14
Independencia                           +1
La Altagracia                               +5
La Romana                                  +8
La Vega                                        +41
Maria TS                                       +2
Peravia                                         +5
Puerto Plata                                +3
Hermanas M                               +4
San Cristobel                               +37
SPM                                              +1
Sanchez Ramirez                        +4
Santiago                                       +19
Santiago Rodriguez                    +1
Valverde                                       +1
Monsignor N                                +2
Monte Plata                                 +2
San Jose                                        +2
Santo Domingo                           +65

ANÁLISIS ESTADÍSTICO DE LA EVOLUCIÓN
DEL VIRUS EN LA REPÚBLICA DOMINICANA COVID-19  INFORME #42

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1l5rtaB … Ny2IK/view

Significant. so much for this not affecting children and schools being re-opened....

Coronavirus also attacks children and adolescents with force

https://listindiario.com/la-republica/2 … olescentes

Although its incidence and aggressiveness is lower in the youngest, Dominican children and adolescents have not escaped the clutches of COVID 19, so far the surveillance system has registered 544 positive cases in children under 19 years of age.

Regarding the number of children affected by COVID 19, the Minister of Public Health, Rafael Sánchez Cárdenas, explained that 23 cases, 15 males and eight females, have been registered in children under one year of age; from one to four years 95 cases; from five to nine years, 118 cases have been reported and from 10 to 19 years, 308 are registered who have had the virus.

Offering details of epidemiological bulletin number 49, the official explained that the symptoms presented by children are varied, and that in addition to prevailing respiratory symptoms, they also include gastrointestinal complaints and muscle pain.

In people over 60 years, reported that 1,670 affected have been reported; among those between 50 and 59 years old there are 1,372 cases, and among those between 20 and 29 years old, 1,412 cases have been reported.

DN intervention

Regarding the intervention that is planned to be carried out in the National District, where the greatest number of confirmed cases is accumulated, he said that it will be carried out by municipalities in Greater Santo Domingo, Monte Plata and San Cristóbal and that coordination is being done with the mayors. .

Bulletin #50

Total Confirmed Cases:  9376      Increase:  281   (283 reported discrepancy from yesterday total)
Total Deaths:                      380      Increase:      7
Total Recovered:              2286      Increase:   222
Total Active Cases:           6710     Increase:      52
Total ICU:                             134     Ventilator:    65    There is no stress on hospital beds, ICU nor ventilators from percentage use reported.
Total PCR Tests:               38543    Increase:   1584

Distribution of New Cases:

DN                                                  + 97
Azua                                                +4
Barahona                                       +6
Duarte                                             +15
Elias Pina                                        +1
Espaillat                                          +5
La Altagracia                                  +2
La Romana                                     +17
La Vega                                           +8
Maria TS                                          +1
Peravia                                            +5
Hermanas M                                  +5
Samana                                           +1
San Cristobel                                  +11
San Juan                                          +1
SPM                                                 +5
Sanchez Ramirez                           +1
Santiago                                          +19
Valverde                                          +3
Monsignor                                       +4
Monte Plata                                     +1
Santo Domingo                               +71

I notice nothing is showing Puerta Plata

Thanks

Ducketts

He said no results rather than zero cases in PP in his presentation of the bulletin.

There was rapid testing earlier in the week and following that any uncertain cases would have had PCR tests and the processing of those takes a few days. So perhaps they were nor received from the clinics from PP by 6pm last evening which is the time the bulletin today refers.

This is very interesting.....see below story.

DR has been undertaking rapid anti body testing throughout the country since the beginning of April and it was reported there were some 50k undertaken by the middle third of that month and substantially more at the end of the month.

Every day we read of more rapid testing throughout the country.

But those tests and the results don't get reported because the antibody test is not as accurate as the PCR test which is the recognized norm.

We heard of rapid testing earlier this week in Puerto Plata and people are expecting a wave of new infections.

Based upon what we read below those identified as positive through rapid testing may never reach the daily statistics and only the asymptomatic found in rapid testing will enter the figures after PCR testing.

In one respect it is reassuring to know many more people are being tested by rapid tests and those with symptoms go into home or institutional quarantine. But it would be much better to share the results even in addendum report.

That said, La Vega had big spikes in PCR results this week after reported rapid testing at the weekend, so it suggests the area is probably heavily infected assuming the spike in PCR results was asymptomatic rapid test cases.

And perhaps Puerto Plata is not going to see the huge wave many expected in the daily figures.

For sure there are more actual cases in DR but many many of these are identified through rapid tests are not being recorded in the daily figures. We are talking of maybe double/treble the numbers perhaps but again why is the death rate so low and there is no pressure on hospital beds and ventilators like there is in countries where the virus is rife?

I am worried about the capital breaking out into something real bad which would affect the whole country badly. There is too much movement already without any opening up. But maybe a lot of rapid testing is coming with the stated intervention planned in next few days.

At least 174 test positive for COVID-19 in Pimentel and 26 in La Ciénaga

https://noticiassin.com/al-menos-174-da … a-cienaga/

SANTO DOMINGO.- During an operation of rapid tests in the La Ciénaga sector of the National District, 26 out of 100 people who were tested would have tested positive, although the data does not conclusively mean that these people have a coronavirus, the minister clarified today. of Public Health, Rafael Sánchez Cárdenas, who also reported that in the municipality of Pimentel, Duarte province, of 776 tests carried out 174 were positive.

When asked about the orientation and management that people who test positive for immunoglobulin tests receive, the minister assured that “that person immediately enters a circle of follow-up and accompaniment by the Directorate of the Area that is carrying out the intervention. ”

He affirmed that when the results of the tests are communicated to people, they are offered information related to the preventions they must take in terms of hygiene, prevention and if they need hospitalization, "they move immediately".

He said that these cases will qualify for confirmatory PCR tests if they are asymptomatic "they will immediately proceed with the subsequent steps of notification, PCR tests, isolation and in cases that need treatment they will be provided."

Looks to me like they are artificially keeping the numbers down.  That's a huge disservice.

I live in a high incidence area and the amount of movement and traffic is ridiculous!!!

Only PCR tests are considered reliable and there are countries including rapid testing in their test numbers.

They are reporting the PCR tests that are positive and that should be the benchmark for all countries when comparing testing rates.

As has been reported in the press, anti body tests are unreliable and at best 80% effective. False positives will show on these tests so the PCR is needed to follow up.

Every country is not reporting the true number of cases by a large margin too unless the testing is a very significant part of the population and those countries are few and far between. There has been much speculation on how many are the real numbers in DR. Some early suggestions were ludicrous but we all knew the numbers were higher and maybe in the realms of double or so of the reported. That fits with all the other information available and now with the rapid testing.

The fact that there is rapid testing taking place and people with full positive results and symptoms are being treated or the asymptomatic/false positives are getting PCR tests is a good thing.

But there is no good news for the short term and we need to keep watching.

And any good news will take longer to get if the cap on the bottle is opened anymore at present. The signs or rather trends are not good yet.

Seems like a spread in La Romana

Government maintains restrictive measures for the population before COVID-19

https://www.diariolibre.com/actualidad/ … IN18736592

Government reinforcing need to keep measures in place in this announcement and rightly so, because it s beginning to look like we are at the point of serious problems with transmission increases if not addressed.

Next key date is Tuesday to see if President asks for a further extension of emergency powers.

Will we see an improvement in the situation before Monday? I would very much doubt it.

Yes we need to watch this Monday. I've not seen any additional measures being implemented in the capital!  I hope they do because this is not slowing down and people are not respecting the laws.

According to the local news, yesterday (Friday) set a record for persons recovered from COVID-19. Good news indeed.

My fear and prediction is while they are deciding the steps of how they will ease restrictions, the moment they announce step one the entire island will see it as a sign to go back to normal.

I keep thinking of Black Friday videos where you see doors being opened at some superstore and the mad crush of persons trying to get in first.

That is exactly how it's going to go down.