COVID-19

I agree with you.  We need crackdowns in some areas for sure and they are talking about reopening.

Many areas already seeing way too many people just going about life as normal!

ANÁLISIS ESTADÍSTICO DE LA EVOLUCIÓN
DEL VIRUS EN LA REPÚBLICA DOMINICANA COVID-19 INFORME #43

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1xB_ZCk … Hg0Bg/view

Its interesting to go through much of this analysis.  So many factors at play here.

I see the R factor stubbornly still at 1.03  They must get that down to less than 1 to ease the lock-down.

Strange, my wife tells me that on Russian news DR is about to ease the lock-down.  According to her the DR Gov and the Russian Gov have a special relationship (if that can be believed).  We will see how correct this information is.

Ducketts

planner wrote:

I agree with you.  We need crackdowns in some areas for sure and they are talking about reopening.

Many areas already seeing way too many people just going about life as normal!

here in the campo, the further you go from the main roads....
the less compliance

but these are very local people..... rarely (if ever) leave their area
few to no visitors

the problems are obvious in the major centers - here and around the world

True!   I am disgusted by the lack of compliance even in my neighborhood!  I yelled at several people last night!  I resent all of them who won't abide by the rules!

I'm afraid Planner you won't win the argument.  If the local authorities can't control their people what hope is there?

You know the locals in DR far better than me but what I have seen raises no surprises. 

Ducketts

Oh I agree honey, I just got to vent my frustrations!   

Now for the bad news......

Bulletin #51

Total Confirmed Cases: 9882     Increase:  506
Total Deaths:                     385     Increase:      5
Total Recovered:             2584     Increase:  298
Total Active Cases:          6913     Increase:   203
Total ICU:                             134    Average age of cases is 41
Total PCR Tests:              40591    Increase:   2057

Distribution of New Cases:

DN                                    +117
Azua                                  +4
Dajabon                            +1
Duarte                               +10
Elias Pina                           +1
El Seibo                              +4
Espaillat                             +34
La Altagracia                      +14
La Romana                        +18
La Vega                               +67
Peravia                                +1
Puerto Plata                       +21
Hermanas M                      +2
Samana                               +2
San Cristobel                      +22
SPM                                      +2
Sanchez Ramirez                +3
Santiago                              +64
Valverde                              +2
Monsenor N                        +20
Santo Domingo                  +97

Everywhere in the country and spreading too fast.

More tests more cases.

Maybe we are seeing a more upward trend beginning after relaxation by many of containment measures.

I fully understand your frustrations, it is so so annoying people ignore social distancing and don't wear masks.

Ducketts

planner wrote:

True!   I am disgusted by the lack of compliance even in my neighborhood!  I yelled at several people last night!  I resent all of them who won't abide by the rules!

your area is more problematic.....for certain

those rural areas I'm talking about have ZERO cases...
and don't venture out to infect others.... nor do others enter

The urban centers here lead the parade..... the hit parade if you will
they should lock them in.........

WillieWeb wrote:

planner wrote:

True!   I am disgusted by the lack of compliance even in my neighborhood!  I yelled at several people last night!  I resent all of them who won't abide by the rules!

your area is more problematic.....for certain

those rural areas I'm talking about have ZERO cases...
and don't venture out to infect others.... nor do others enter

The urban centers here lead the parade..... the hit parade if you will
they should lock them in.........

You are quite correct WW.

In the real campo, people are staying in their houses and the police are hassling anyone who goes out and are limiting access into small villages.

I am desperate to complete my construction work (construction should be one of the first activities to reopen) and relocate away from what is going to be a country with infection everywhere in large populated areas.

It is the town and city folk who are now ignoring even the basic rules. This was initially a middle class infection here concentrated in the better areas of DN.  They lost control.

Today's report shows you that the virus is now spread far and wide and probably expanding in towns and beginning to move from the middle class areas to the poor barrios in the capital and Santiago.

When it comes to concentration of the virus per head of population, then Moca (where PVSoldier lives) looks to be very bad with many cases and a very high positive to negative test ratio. La Vega is riddled with the virus in both La Vega itself and probably in all the towns that link it to Moca too but also in Contanza and Jarabacoa. Remember much of the fruit and veg. comes from these mountain towns so the drivers are probably spreading wide and far. San Cristobel continues with large daily rises every day and the cases in Bani and Azua continue to the west. La Romana and L Altagracia are continuing with more cases and this is a bad omen for any tourism for some time to come along with Puerto Plata and now a small but uptick in Samana.

There is nothing good in the recent reports other than the medical services are not stretched YET and we are getting more tests to reveal the extent that the virus has spread.

It is nuts for people to be asking about coming here next month. In a couple of weeks we could be a virus hell hole! Who would want to come and get infected even if allowed?

I hope not but my guess is this weak lame duck administration will allow some openings of areas province by province and the virus will expand.

Stay safe.

Some bars in Santiago break the curfew

https://www.elcaribe.com.do/2020/05/08/ … -de-queda/

Well they have some serious virus spread in Santiago and surrounds, so good luck!

Vegetables come from Santiago......
lots of'em

I assume if you wash with soap and water your veggies it doesn't matter where they come from!

But it's clear the locals are ignoring this lock-down.  Interesting countries like France had a severe lock-down but now offices etc are opening up again on 11 May.  And other countries like Germany, Scandinavia  & Iceland seem to be OK for the time being.  What I don't understand is a country like Belarus which had a full display of its military in celebration of VE Day-the only country to do so yet their figures are low.

We certainly live in strange and very worrying times.

Ducketts

Partially correct.

The locals in the towns and cities are increasingly ignoring the controls and social distancing is an alien concept to them - but maybe they will get the message if it hits home to them, friends or family.

Strong peer reviewed scientific studies shown and reported in the Lancet and by Imperial College show that institutionalized control is by far the most effective way to control the virus spread and reduces incidences of spread, hospitalization and death compared to social distancing by considerable margins.

I have only seen one country that has applied very strict controls with the support of the population and has zero cases now and that is New Zealand. The leadership of the lady prime minister there has been exceptional and scientific based.

All the other countries we look at and who are easing some controls are gaining cases. Germany had well over 2000 new cases yesterday and over 100 deaths. Sweden is going nowhere with steadily increasing cases and an exceptionally high death rate in lowly populated country with good social adherence. no controls and the virus spreads. even in the best drilled societies.

Nobody bar New Zealand has got it right yet. There are modest successes in places like Greece, Austria and Iceland but Greece is not planning to open up soon. France is worth watching but to note that borders are closed and Paris is still on lock down. France is a more rural country than UK, Low Countries or Germany.

The deniers are just seeing more cases in leaps and bounds - Brazil, Mexico, Russia india and large parts of USA. DR may be joining them!

I don't understand humanity anymore. To put friends, family and parents at risk of death by not seeing this through to proper control. It is such callous human behavior.

Thank god there are real good politicians left in this world as New Zealand has shown.

New Zealand eliminates COVID-19

[link moderated]

Read it!

ya know..... been thinking about this

The country revolves around Sto Dom....
and to a degree STI and other larger centers

The campos/camposinos don't think they add value - they feel (might feel) inferior
I feel that way out here in Cabrera... quite removed from the action

So when country folk hear of these problems, they shrug it off to big city stuff.
Our classic urban/rural split

I strongly feel the countryside is not an integral part of the problem
but they get swept up in it...

Surely, they don't pay much heed to what happens in the Zona or other parts of the capital
They are small cogs in a big wheel

The real culprits here ARE the urbanites.....
they brought it , are spreading it and are ignoring the suggested protocol.
A true shame

I have said before
IGNORANCE ---
meaning not enough education and a lack of understanding of the severity being faced

Too bad.....

an example of the ignorance... and misunderstanding ??
The POP debacle...... ignorance

I am not being harsh - I mean to be sympathetic to their problems

ANÁLISIS ESTADÍSTICO DE LA EVOLUCIÓN
DEL VIRUS EN LA REPÚBLICA DOMINICANA COVID-19 INFORME #44

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1x4mW0v … Zlzf0/view

Jump in R factor....bad sign for the future?

I'm sorry if it sounds harsh, but the only way to get the R down to below 1 is to have real controls.  I've seen little evidence of real effective controls because if there were the R factor would be down to less than 1 by now.  I know people will this is the way of the locals are but with a pandemic this unacceptable.

You have a small army, police etc use them effectively.  I've just been for a walk and it is very clear locals have their own rules and sod everyone else.  A very sad state of affairs

Ducketts

Greater Santo Domingo including San Cristobel beginning to show worrying signs of  beginning of a major problem. there is no good news here except more testing. If you look at the tends the problem is everywhere and now showing up much more in major population centres.

Bulletin #52

Total Confirmed Cases:   10347      Increase:    465
Total Deaths:                         388      Increase:         3
Total Recovered:                 2763      Increase:    179
Total Active Cases:              7196      Increase:    283
Total ICU:                                142     On Ventilators:   64
Total PCR Tests:                 42615      Increase:    2024

New Case Distribution:

DN                                     +138
Azua                                   +16
Baoruco                             +2
Barahona                           +18
Duarte                                +16
Espaillat                              +7
La Altagracia                      +3
La Romana                         +8
La Vega                               +19
Maria TS                             +3
Pedenales                          +1
Peravia                               +2
Hermanas M                      +8
San Cristobel                     +47
San Juan                              +2
SPM                                      +2
Sanchez Ramirez               +3
Santiago                              +14
Santiago Rodriguez           +2
Monsenor N                        +2
Monte Plata                        +2
Santo Domingo                 +150

And still some think we need to loosen up,  open areas and beaches!  Today I saw both Cabarete and Bavaro allowing walking on the beach.

And again no report from Puerto Plata.  Interesting!

planner wrote:

And still some think we need to loosen up,  open areas and beaches!  Today I saw both Cabarete and Bavaro allowing walking on the beach.

And again no report from Puerto Plata.  Interesting!

Remember Puerto Plata has had at least two rapid testing exercises and they don't report those results but people showing positive for antibodies and symptoms go into government isolation. Only the asymptomatic from rapid tests get PCR tests and recorded.

I understand that.  two days ago there were 21 cases, day before none and today none. Just some inconsistency.

Agreed Planner, totally inconsistent about Puerta Plata.

As I said I walked to the beach-not on the beach and there people there sunbathing etc.

There is no control and no respect and the R number keeps on going up.

Ducketts

Not sure which strain has been seen in Dr. Thoughts?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/arti … -York.html

DRVisitor wrote:

Not sure which strain has been seen in Dr. Thoughts?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/arti … -York.html

No idea.

That simply reinforces the extreme concern we all should have with this virus and any confidence in antibody testing validity as the medical science community has warned. Probably vaccines too, which will have to evolve as the virus mutates like the flu vaccines every year. Equally about herd immunity which is looking more unlikely by the day.

People are getting over confident about possible international travel with some sort of immunity passport or testing and it may be unrealistic. DR's tourism leaders are hoping for such a check before travel. I believe the daily increasing international travel bans are the only sure way to avoid imported transmissions.

Every day turns up something new.

The only things I think work from reading peer reviewed unbiased research, is that institutionalized isolation measures work and self distancing helps contain.

Cardiologist Pedro Ureña says tests in Villa Juana yielded 40% positives to COVID-19; urges measures

https://hoy.com.do/cardiologo-pedro-ure … e-medidas/

They carried out 314 rapid tests in Villa Juana which is one of the barrios just north f Gazcue and Zona Colonial and found 40% positive.

Coronavirus has already reached the Dominican neighborhoods

https://hoy.com.do/coronavirus-llego-ya … minicanos/

In this case 26% positive in rapid tests in La Cienaga which is just a half km along the Ozama banks from Zona Colonial.

Yes any thoughts that this is not in the poorer neighborhoods here are ridiculous.   Many are getting sick.  They don't seek help or report as they do not want to be removed from their homes and families. They don't have insurance and there is no money for healthcare!

But they are spreading the virus, that you can bank on.

Bulletin #53

Confirmed New Cases:  10634       Increase:  287
Total Deaths:                        393       Increase:      5
Total Recovered:                2870      Increase:   107
Total Active:                        7371      Increase:   175
Total ICU:                               131
Total PCR Tests:                 44287     Increase:  1672

Spread of Increased New Cases:

DN                                              +79
Azua                                            +3
Baoruco                                      +1
Duarte                                         +1
Espaillat                                      +32
Independencia                           +1
La Altagracia                                +1
La Vega                                         +3
Maria TS                                       +2
Peravia                                          +2
Puerto Plata                                 +5
Hermanas M                                +1
San Cristobel                               +24
San Juan                                        +3
SPM                                                +2
Sanchez Ramirez                          +2
Santiago                                         +29
Santiago Rodriguez                      +1
Valverde                                         +4
Monsenol N                                   +12
Santo Domingo                             +79

Thanks as always!

There has to be some point when the return to normalcy has to start. One thing for sure it will be a long time before a vaccine will be available. Does everyone have to be isolated until that happens. The economy cannot afford that. I am one of the fortunate ones, still on full salary, but many are not. Business are going bankrupt. Many are eating away their life savings.
Presently I am in Germany. It is only because I am here on business I can stay in this hotel. I am sure it is 90% vacant. How can a business survive with these restrictions? Restrictions are being lifted here and some shops are open, but not all. Restaurants are not open but in a few days some will with restrictions. This last weekend there was a protest in the town center. People are protesting the restrictions, even though they are easing somewhat.
How many remember the days when nobody wore a seatbelt in their car. Now everyone wears one. How many lives were saved when travelers started to wear seatbelts. Now we have to address this virus, and start to take precautions. If you want to stay isolated in your home, that is your choice.
I am in what is referred to as the vulnerable age group. One thing I will not do is live in fear of this virus. I will take the precautions that I can, and live on.

If people would follow protocols then this could be mitigated.  That is the issue!  Not enforcing the rules means it continues spreading.

We cannot begin to loosen when it's not under control, not even close. 

I too am in the vulnerable group and keeping my butt at home while I watch these morons walking down the street in groups with no mask, while they have  damn birthday parties of 30 plus people.

I am bloody fed up with doing my part so others don't have to!

Everybody agrees that at a point one has to gradually re-open business. But the key has been to get the transmission rate under control and there is no other proven way to do this other than lock down. To open up before that point will only exacerbate a problem and infect more people and make business hard to operate with staff sicknesses, deaths, create fear and put extreme strains on the health system. An R factor below 1.0 is needed and is achievable with good lock down and with severe early lock down you can get to zero as New Zealand and several small Caribbean islands have proven.

DR was doing quite well initially but a lack of discipline has created a very risky situation now with spread everywhere if you look carefully at the province numbers over time. This gives a picture but no the exact situation.

People talk of herd immunity and they are just regurgitating what they read and not thinking it through. You would need 80% of a population infected for herd immunity, if it can exist with covid19 which is mutating and has no uniform immunity factor amongst those who get it. To get to 80% in DR means 8.6 million and with that goes higher death rates of between 6% and 12% or 650 k to 1.3m people over a few years (USA would be 263m and deaths between 20m and 40m for comparison).

So some form of lock down until transmission is low, starts the process and then a gradual open up with social distancing to the fore. And lets be blunt, some businesses won't easily work with covid19 safely until a vaccine and will have to adapt significantly or be kept closed. By that I mean sports events ,concerts, bars, restaurants, clubs and discos, cinemas, salons and travel by plane, train and bus and even airports.

Countries are now facing up to that next huge challenge and that is how to make some businesses change to a  new environment and their population to adapt too. Germany is now seeing a new spike. South Korea has closed bars and entertainment areas with new cases linked. The numbers in the USA are back on the up in many states and the new death projections have ramped up significantly.

We are seeing crazy events in many countries where people don't recognize the risk of going back to a terrible place. a video of the tube in London was nuts for example.

It isn't easy and the economic effects are huge and will not be fixed for several years and some developed countries will be suffering for years to come.

Even less developed DR will have to start to open up soon - it already has to a large degree - but many businesses should be closed for weeks more and this will cause some resentment. The re-opening here is more to do with hunger and need to put food on the table than a business motive. But middle class Dominicans also have built up debts and need to work again. Many Dominicans live day to day and the western culture of borrowing to finance tends to be more a town and city thing and that is where the non compliance has been in the main. The best DR can do with a bad hand of cards is to keep the curfew in place, keep the metro closed and inter provincial buses, keep the borders closed and isolate areas of bad transmission. Can it get the R factor down now? I doubt it and that will make the country a poor tourist destination unless a tourist model based upon isolating the tourists in AI or gated resorts is planned.

Every day life is becoming more different.

THese businesses that are operating out the back door
are in fact complying.....
social distance, no crowds

If it's broken - fix it.... hardware store
people really need them

There are all sorts of examples

New studies ( new one every day) indicate that bars /restaurants where people are breathing the same air for extended periods are in fact , dangerous

Short interactions - not so much

Touching is bad, things or people

We'll be socially distant for a looong time - I fear

Masks work... to a degree

Herd Immunity
until all or a significant % is tested.... not much hope

100% testing- apply that to the world population and get back to me

Said it before and will say it again

You don't beat a pandemic
You survive it

No winners here
We all will lose something..... sadly

Chin up Planner.... strap in
more to come before it's over

I  pretty much agree.  The frustration comes and goes.  I vent when needed, but I stay the heck home!  Tomorrow I will do my grocery and necessity run! 

Then home until well after this next pay cycle!

Which means I should warn you all:

Payday for MANY is Friday the  15th.  Lineups will start growing Thursday and continue through the weekend. Do your shopping tomorrow and Wednesday!

Excellent post.

Has the DR Gov issued a new decree on extending the lock-down.  Not seen any reports.


Ducketts

El ,Presidente first needs to extend his powers of authority...

then he can dictate another curfew

Current reign expires the 17th - I think
He needs 5-6 days in days to apply and be approved/denied

should be any minute now..... his renewal request

Meeting earlier today with President who is taking advice on opening up. This is reassuring:

Entrepreneurs presented Danilo Medina with a "timely, orderly, prudent and intelligent start"
The executive vice president of the Conep, César Dargam, explained that this start of the economy would be done by keeping the health situation under control and minimizing the contagion of the vulnerable population

https://www.diariolibre.com/usa/actuali … IG18780091

The last paragraph is interesting....

And a Government Council will be held, pending a request for a third extension of the state of emergency by President Danilo Medina, by the National Congress.

The Vice President also referred in an interview about the need to extend the social provisions through June and maybe into July.

I think a slow open up towards end of month is becoming more likely as the leaked document with construction, hardware stores and car workshops too. And the rest gradually into September with domestic tourism first.

ANÁLISIS ESTADÍSTICO DE LA EVOLUCIÓN
DEL VIRUS EN LA REPÚBLICA DOMINICANA COVID-19 INFORME #45


https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ASs5bl … nxpKu/view