COVID-19

ANÁLISIS ESTADÍSTICO DE LA EVOLUCIÓN
DEL VIRUS EN LA REPÚBLICA DOMINICANA COVID-19 INFORME #55

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1YFjJnK … uwmFT/view

Bulletin #65:

Confirmed New Cases: 14422      Increase:   433
Confirmed Deaths:            458      Increase:        2
Confirmed Recovered:    7854      Increase:   282
Total Active Cases:           6110      Increase:   149
Total ICU: 120
Total PCR Tests:              65355     Increase:   1836      Day positivity   23.6%   !!!!

Spread of New Cases:

DN                                       147
Azua                                        6
Barahona                               1
Espaillat                                23
La Altagracia                        10
La Romana                           10
La Vega                                 10
Marai TS                                 2
Puerto Plata                          1
Hermanas M                         1
San Cristobal                        7
San Juan                                4
SPM                                        4
Sanchez Ramirez                 6
Santiago                                17
Valverde                                5
Monsenor N                         7
Santo Domingo                   167
Non Specified                        5

To me this does not look good news. Greater Santo Domingo where there is too much mobility should be monitored over the next few days to see if there is growth of cases. The south and east coasts are potentially bad too with too few tests in SPM La Romana and La Altagracia to understand the spread. Espaillat remains a problem. Very few tests but now numbers growing in Valverde (Mao).

Opening up with transmission factors above 1 and insufficient testing is unwise in disciplined countries, and so in DR we will found out if and what are the consequences over the coming days. This is a snap shot just after re-opening, showing that the transmission rate was still high and one person could quickly spread the virus to many, so does not tell us of any consequences of reopening yet rather the high risks involved.

You're absolutely right, however the economic pressures are growing daily and cannot be ignored by any Gov.

Ducketts

This is not good at all.   Economy does NOT come before lives.   From what I have seen on the news etc there is almost no  enforcement going on!

Tests per 100,000 people per Province.

Using the number of PCR tests registered per province as today's MoH Bulletin #65 (ignoring the 1152 no espificado total), and the population per province as dominicana.gob.do for 2019, the total number of tests per 100,000 population in each province is as below.

As a guide using the figures from 'worldometers' testing rates are:

DR  566
USA 4229
Spain 6498
UK 4764
Italy  5488
France 2122
Germany 4292
Canada  3727
Brazil   346

By Province: (below national average in italics)

DN 1139
Azua 271
Baoruco 55
Barahona 291
Dajabon 60
Duarte 1044
Elias Pina 89
El Seibo  56
Espaillat 395
Independencia 26
La Altagracia 491
La Romana   629
La Vega  911
Maria TS  559
Monte Cristi 124
Pedenales  46
Peravia 268
Puerto Plata 276
Hermanas M 867
Samana  81
San Cristobal 313
San Juan 323
SPM 232
Sanchez Ramirez 651
Santiago 296
Santiago R  141
Valverde  150
Monsenor N 591
Monte Plata 94
Hato Major  65
San Jose de Ocoa 126
Santo Domingo 507


There are several significantly populated provinces well below a low national average.

Interesting France has one of the lowest testing rates and yet is doing well and opening up with flights starting next week.

Let's be honest, there is no discipline I can see in DR therefore you can't win.  Yes Planner is correct health is more important that the economies but there will be a time soon that people will be totally fed up with this lock-down and secondly, I repeat, the economic pressures will burst wide open and if you have no economy you have zilch as a country and there will be riots.  The Gov have already demonstrated they are incapable of controlling a rabble so what hope is there.

Ducketts

Honey they were fed up 2 weeks in. In some areas they never really locked down.

Yes things are going to get worse.    This  election is going to be critical.

ANÁLISIS ESTADÍSTICO DE LA EVOLUCIÓN
DEL VIRUS EN LA REPÚBLICA DOMINICANA COVID-19 INFORME #56

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1KBQP_N … ztTGl/view

Not complaining-observation

If the president yesterday,making his pitch to the electorate, ignores social distancing what hope is there?  I see the R has gone back up 1.03.

Ducketts

If a country with a disciplined population opens up with R above 1 and never below 1, the odds are that it would struggle to control virus spread.

Now DR has never got to R equals 1 for one day let alone a week and now has opened up almost like normal outside curfew with plenty of examples of zero social distancing. Add to that electioneering.

So the odds are stacked firmly for more viral spread and increased cases, hospitalization and deaths occuring and continuing for a long time, especially now we see evidence of low testing levels in most provinces including places like Santiago.

DR was doing well, but the wrong message
of  easing of travel after Semana Santa by the Presidents spokesman will be looked back as a significant turning point on mobility controls. And we know the virus likes to hitch a ride to spread.

Will be a challenge the longer the wait to open.

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/global … -blow-2020

Hello

My question is of a different nature but related to convid19...has any American expat received their stimulus payment in a local Dominican bank...I receive my SS retirement pension deposited directly to Banco Popular since 2016...??

It's a relevant question, and welcome to the forums.  Hoping someone will have an answer for you.

TY and happy to be aboard.

Bulletin #66:

Total Confirmed Cases:  14801     Increase:   379
Total Deaths:                         458    Increase:        0
Total Recovered:                 8133    Increase:    279
Total Active Cases:             6210     Increase:    100
Total ICU: 122  Hospital: 2295
Total PCR Tests:                 67940    Increase:  2585     Day positivity   14.6%

Spread of New Cases (tests in italics):

DN                              108        643
Azua                                7          67
Baoruco                          0          0
Barahona                       1          15
Dajabon                          0          3      
Duarte                             1          40
Elias Pina                        1           4
El Seibo                           3           16
Espaillat                           1           8
Independencia               1           3
La Altagracia                  21         106
La Romana                     7           92
La Vega                            12        188
Maria TS                            3          34
Monte Cristi                      0           4
Pedenales                         1          5
Peravia                              1          26
Puerto Plata                     4          42
Hermanas M                    1          14
Samana                             2           12
San Cristobal                   27         129
San Juan                             2          44   
SPM                                    3          55
Sanchez Ramirez             0          21
Santiago                            18         267
Santiago R                          1        10
Valverde                              0           4
Monsenor N                       3          29
Monte Plata                        1        5
Hato Mayor                         1         5
San Jose                               0         0
Santo Domingo               139        652
Non Specified                     9        40

Only 5 out of 32 provinces did not report new cases yesterday.

I am told that Nagua seems not be in total compliance
Not many w/ masks.... close quarters

My friend was at the Edenorte office there this week complaining about the electric bill and was shocked by the difference compared to how we behave in Cabrera

I am watching for trends and that is why with a lower test positivity today compared to yesterday I thought I would look at spread of tests.

All I am seeing is a wide spread of cases continuing across the country and in places where testing has been on the low side showing growth.

If they test more widely in the provinces more positive results are to be expected.

Now that there is so much mobility and a lack of social distancing is evident from all media, the odds that things will improve is low, and the probability is for deterioration everywhere especially with the elections coming.

We have to get used to living with covid19 in DR is my take, so we have to adapt. And I say this from a global perspective, because right now Europe is living with covid19 in it's midst and many active cases and the USA will not get rid of the virus and will learn to live with many active cases. I doubt that even a vaccine will solve anything quickly and we can't expect to have that this year.

0.004222%...Crude Mortality Rate for the Dominican Republic...

If you are one of the 3% who get covid19 and die in DR or friend or family of the deceased it is a big deal. We havent reached the peak yet.

If you are one of the 2000 plus in hospital in DR with covid19 it is a big deal.

If you get sick from covid19 and cant work for 60days whilst still positive it is a big deal. The median age of those affected is late 30s.

If the whole health system breaks down in DR if this spreads after opening up, it would be a very big deal.

If tourists cant travel and stay safely in DR it will be a very big deal.

For many businesses where people conglomerate this is a very big deal.

This is a deadly virus that is mutating and is worldwide and may take decades to properly control and eradicate. It has and will continue to severely effect economic and social behaviour worldwide and those that accept a new reality and adapt will best survive. Those that hinder the new norms to control the spread will make living much harder for the many by facilitating greater and faster transmission.

Can you explain how the testing is being done? Is it from more tests being available in location or more people getting tested? Seeing some places with sudden large increases.

lennoxnev wrote:

If you are one of the 3% who get covid19 and die in DR or friend or family of the deceased it is a big deal. We havent reached the peak yet.

If you are one of the 2000 plus in hospital in DR with covid19 it is a big deal.

If you get sick from covid19 and cant work for 60days whilst still positive it is a big deal. The median age of those affected is late 30s.

If the whole health system breaks down in DR if this spreads after opening up, it would be a very big deal.

If tourists cant travel and stay safely in DR it will be a very big deal.

For many businesses where people conglomerate this is a very big deal.

This is a deadly virus that is mutating and is worldwide and may take decades to properly control and eradicate. It has and will continue to severely effect economic and social behaviour worldwide and those that accept a new reality and adapt will best survive. Those that hinder the new norms to control the spread will make living much harder for the many by facilitating greater and faster transmission.

VERY WELL SAID!!!!!!!!!!!!!

DRvisitor  we are not sure.  Sometimes they are focusing on areas and we see spikes in testing and other times there is no sense, logic or reaoning!

DRVisitor wrote:

Can you explain how the testing is being done? Is it from more tests being available in location or more people getting tested? Seeing some places with sudden large increases.

I wish I knew.

DR has a limited testing ability in terms of the equipment that analyses the tests and skilled technicians and then you need tests kits and associated bits and pieces for the test. it is costly too.

Added to which they are using viral testing for patients to confirm them as recovered and one wonders if these are included in totals.

They have done well in the past with limited resources with cases restricted to certain areas in the main. But the virus has now travelled further.

Overall, my take is that the true extent of the spread is not at all clear and we may see case upticks in other provinces from those that have had lots of cases going forward. La Altagracia today and Samana which has had so few tests.

The focus in the country has shifted from the virus to elections now, and even the MoH has cut their briefings to Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays. The medical people, it appears, are being side lined by politics and that is a recipe for problems going forward imo.

But the virus is not paying any attention and is spreading it appears.............

I ran into a HUGE political caravan today - Cabrera

Luis Contigo ?.... seem to remember

WillieWeb wrote:

I ran into a HUGE political caravan today - Cabrera

Luis Contigo ?.... seem to remember

Caravans and marches are not permitted in Phase 1 or 2.

I'm telling ya.... 2 large vans.... tons of black Suburbans....

people directing traffic.... congestion

I steered clear

I found this
Luis Contigo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k_16Kq4saTc

Still, overall, (and taking into account that the US was the LEAST prepared among 'developed' countries) + has screwed up by the numbers,

If you believe numbers reported the DR has 1/5 the case and about 1/6 the mortality of the US on a per capita basis.

Not to say that 'all is well' by any means.

We are in the early innings.  Willingness to learn will be key.

JR

And there is little willingness to learn and even less to adapt and change!

Bulletin #67:

Total Confirmed Cases:     15073        Increase:    272
Total Deaths:                           460        Increase:         2
Total Recovered:                    8285       Increase:    152 
Total Active Cases:                 6328      Increase:     118
Total UCI: 123
Total PCR Tests:                    69608       Increase:   1668    Day Positivity     16.3%

Spread of New Cases:

DN                                           62
Azua                                          6
Barahona                                 1
Espaillat                                    2
La Altagracia                           16
La Romana                               6
La Vega                                     11
Maria TS                                    3
Peravia                                      3
Puerto Plata                             1
Hermanas M                            1
San Cristobal                           12
San Juan                                    3
SPM                                            2
Sanchez Ramirez                     2
Santiago                                   20
Valverde                                     3
Monsenor N                              6
Santo Domingo                      102
Non Specified                          10            persons with no provincial address/no cedula?

Less tests but the spread is wide.

Still not looking good.

COVID-19: Immunity to coronaviruses may only last just six months, says new study

https://www.euronews.com/2020/05/25/cov … -new-study

This is yet another study that is casting doubt on immunity obtained having been infected. And some of these studies have involved huge numbers of people like the 150k in Italy.

ANÁLISIS ESTADÍSTICO DE LA EVOLUCIÓN
DEL VIRUS EN LA REPÚBLICA DOMINICANA COVID-19 INFORME #57

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1IWLKpg … 25hQz/view

Bulletin #68

Total Confirmed Cases:   15264      Increase:   191
Total Deaths:                         468      Increase:       8
Total Recovered:                 8534      Increase:    249
Total Active Cases:              6262      Decrease:    66
Total ICU:  116
Total PCR Tests:                 70972      Increase:   1364      Day positivity 14%

Spread of New Cases:

DN                                     59
Azua                                    6
Duarte                                 1
Espaillat                              2
La Altagracia                      9
La Romana                         1
La Vega                               2
Maria TS                             1
Monte Cristi                       1
Peravia                                2
Puerto Plata                       1
San Cristobal                      3
Santiago                             18
Monsenor N                        1
Santo Domingo                 83
Not Specified                      1

Testing numbers drop and new cases drop. I wish they could consistently test the 2400 that they can to give a clearer picture.

The total cases keeps going up with no flattening yet in sight (R>1), and the active cases more slowly and relatively flat with slight upward trend overall. Death rate at 3.07%.

You're right of course we are going to have to live and adapt to Covid-19

However discipline would go a long way to crack this nut on the head.  As you correctly point out with the up coming elections and absolutely no social distancing at all things will get worse.  If the Gov doesn't respect social distancing why should the masses?

So with these thoughts in mind, why not, like Europe re open.  It appears to be working in most countries with R below 1.  I appreciate the R in DR is 1.03 and needs to come down, the questions is will it?  I doubt it.  So to why not allow the economy to re grow and learn to live and adapt with Covid-19?

Ducketts

Can anyone explain the BVI's ??
8 cases in total - 1 death

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir … n-islands/

We really can't compare BVI with DR. They are a group of small islands with a total population of just over 30k compared to DR with 10.7m.

They have tested about 150 people as of mid May and that equates to about the same average testing rate per 100k as DR which exemplifies the testing situation here. Their death rate is slightly less than DR and the actual total cases is unlikely to be accurate due to the low total of tests in a widely spread population.

If they are like the TCI, another British Overseas Territory, they didn't have any testing capability and send the samples for testing elsewhere. But TCI has now bought it's own testing equipment so it can test it's population. TCI is also making arrangements for more hospital beds because it had so few. Planning for the next wave and to be ready. Will BVI?

It's tourism model relies more on yachting and villa owners so they pose a lesser risk than the mass tourism of DR.

They still have one known active case so the first wave probably isn't over yet.

News just out, Punta Cana airport to re open on July 1  Good news indeed.  Let's hope the other airports follow suit.

Ducketts

Hotels to open from 5th July as stated by government. After elections. Not a great time to be out and about for a few days after elections normally.

Hotel openings will depend on potential occupancy.......

https://listindiario.com/economia/2020/ … r-en-julio

............Bookings very few right now.

All is still up in the air so to speak. Who will fly and will likely have to apply IATA rules. Will tourists be controlled as indicated in protocols airport - hotel - airport? Will citizens, residents and visa holders be required to quarantine? Will any non resident be allowed to visit if not staying in a hotel? A lot of the tourists type activities are still closed until after 24th August according to plan.

Wait and see still.

'ducketts' your best bet to leave after 5th July may be Air Europa or Iberia from SDQ. Rumours that POP will not open immediately. Don't bank on exit flights between 1st and 5th July yet imo.

Thanks that's what I'm planning to do.

Why would POP not open after 5 July if most of the other airports are.  Don't understand.

What I would say is no US flights should be permitted until the country has its Covid-19 under control.

Ducketts

ANÁLISIS ESTADÍSTICO DE LA EVOLUCIÓN
DEL VIRUS EN LA REPÚBLICA DOMINICANA COVID-19  INFORME #58

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1-LcVS1 … ga228/view