COVID-19

'ducketts', try looking at today's bulletin on the attached Facebook website.

https://es-la.facebook.com/SaludPublicaRD/

Puerto Plata province still has 1200 active cases and testing is low. 1452 tests with a province population of 332,386. 437 per 100k compared to DR average of 714.

Thank you

Why do you think testing is so low there?

Ducketts

I agree with almost all these comments.  Today we see what the deputados do!

This mornings new cases:  con la suma de 463 nuevos infectados

Bulletin #71:

Total Confirmed Cases:  16531   Increase:  463
Total Deaths:                       488    Increase:       3
Total Recovered:                9266   Increase:   314
Total Active Cases:             6777   Increase:   146
Total PCR Tests:               76930    Increase:  2318    Day positivity  21%

Spread of New Cases:

DN                                   133
Azua                                   15
Barahona                          17
Duarte                                 4
El Seibo                               6
Espaillat                              1
Independencia                  2
La Altagracia                     14
La Romana                         10
La Vega                                2
Maria TS                              7
Peravia                                1
Puerto Plata                        2
San Cristobal                      40
SPM                                      2
Santiago                               18
Monsenor N                         4
Santo Domingo                  174
Non specified                       12

Going up!

40 for San Cristobal is not surprising at all.

After what you reported yesterday about the lack of testing surely the figures for the province of Puerta Plata can't be believed.  In fact can one believe any of these figures to be accurate?

Ducketts

The figures we have are what we have. Same in every country in the world. They are not perfect, they are likely not accurate but they are what we work with

It's likely much like the way I budgeted while in the military - add 25 to 35% for unknown variables and you'll could be closer to the actual numbers. As Darlene says, all countries use these stats and there are likely no countries that reflect the true picture...

The figures are well presented and cover the whole country.

Perhaps the results reflect a few days before rather than the day before because taking samples and delivering to laboratories and getting results back is a process. I tend to think they are maybe telling us the results situation in the provinces outside of SD and Santiago maybe 3 days ago.

What the testing does tell us is the trends and the potential risks.

The cases in El Seibo today caught my attention. So very few tests but connected to La Romana and La Altagracia. Equally I mentioned before about the potential for more cases out west and we now see a growing problem in Azua and Barahona and even cases in Independencia to day with paltry testing.

There are fewer cases in Duarte these days but still new ones so a spike a new wave is possible.

WW reported chaotic scenes ta banks in Nagua some days passed and now MTS has a larger number of cases.

SC is just growing day by day.

Nothing encouraging except deaths are still not excessive. Active cases steadily increasing and so more chance of transmission especially with higher day positivities.

https://www.diariolibre.com/actualidad/politica/diputados-no-logran-conocer-extension-del-estado-de-emergencia-FM19157277

The Dominican Liberation Party (PLD) was unable to get enough votes to approve the agenda on which the request for the extension of the state of emergency would be known.

The president of the Chamber of Deputies closed the session and called for tomorrow at 10:00 am before the opposition of the benches of the Modern Revolutionary Party (PRM) and the People's Force (FP).

Health Minister to deputies: curfew and state of emergency are still necessary

https://listindiario.com/la-republica/2 … necesarios

he Health Minister asked the deputies to approve the continuity of the national state of emergency, to continue the fight against the new coronavirus, COVID-19.

Rafael Sánchez Cárdenas said that the danger of the disease has not passed and that, on the contrary, it is necessary to continue operations and work to reduce and mitigate its impact on the Dominican population.

The request of the Minister of Health was made at the beginning of his press conference this morning, where he gave new details of the disease in the country.

"We understand that curfew and emergency measures are still necessary in the country and we ask the entire political sector that meets in the Chamber of Deputies to extend the state of emergency that has been requested because of the reasons that led to the Initial petition still remains in effect, "he said.

Yesterday three other new deaths occurred and in total the number of deaths has already reached 488. The case fatality rate is 2.98%, being the first time that it falls below 3 in the country.

Today the Chamber of Deputies knows for the fourth time the request that seeks to extend the state of emergency in the country due to the COVID-19 situation.

Yesterday, the senators approved extending the state of emergency in the Dominican Republic for 25 days, at the request of the President of the Republic, Danilo Medina.

Of the three extensions of the state of emergency that have been approved, two were 17 days old and one only 15.

This knowledge has the particularity that the opposition legislators have publicly announced that they will not approve another state of emergency.

"The Covid has not disappeared from the DR nor has the pandemic that affects the world at the moment been eliminated, we are asking the population to keep their distance so as not to be contaminated," the Health Minister said this morning at the press conference, as called to the population.

As we have all stayed this is entirely political.  It's a travesty that they put politics before lives. Period.

I am not holding out hope for.tomorrows session.

Not looking good

Was in STI today (dentist again)

Waaay more traffic and action... crazy

They are unleashed.... doing what they want
STI ain;t great at masks & distancing

Big cities... immune and invulnerable...it seems
that's the attitude

Whew !

all the little towns up & over the hill
not much adherence -- but I don't fear them.... isolated mas/menos

Bravo and vicinity was in compliance...
but the general public.... differnt story
I doubt they shop at Bravo

ANÁLISIS ESTADÍSTICO DE LA EVOLUCIÓN
DEL VIRUS EN LA REPÚBLICA DOMINICANA COVID-19 INFORME #61

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1oyf-he … LpM7s/view

ANÁLISIS ESTADÍSTICO DE LA EVOLUCIÓN
DEL VIRUS EN LA REPÚBLICA DOMINICANA COVID-19 INFORME #61

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1oyf-he … LpM7s/view

Here's a good way to look at masks, spacing, etc
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

When experts recommend wearing masks, staying at least six feet away from others, washing your hands frequently and avoiding crowded spaces, what they’re really saying is: Try to minimize the amount of virus you encounter.

The immune system can see off a few viral particles without making you sick. But how much is needed for an infection to take root?

It wouldn’t be ethical for scientists to expose people to different doses of the coronavirus, as they do with milder cold viruses. Common respiratory viruses, like influenza and other coronaviruses, should offer some insight. But researchers have found little consistency.

For SARS, also a coronavirus, the estimated infective dose is just a few hundred particles. For MERS, it is much higher, on the order of thousands.

The new coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, is more similar to SARS and, therefore, the infectious dose may be hundreds of particles, Dr. Rasmussen said.

But the virus has a history of defying predictions.

Generally, people who harbor high levels of pathogens — whether from influenza, H.I.V. or SARS — tend to have more severe symptoms and are more likely to pass on the infection.

But with the new coronavirus, people who have no symptoms may have just as much virus in their bodies as those who are seriously ill, some studies suggest.

When will hear of their decision?

Ducketts

when they are done, no idea when that is.

Bulletin #72

Confirmed New Cases:    16908     Increase:  377
Confirmed Deaths:                498    Increase:     10
Confirmed Recovered:       9557     Increase:   311
Total Active Cases:              6953     Increase:     56
Total PCR Tests:                  79172    Increase:  2242    Day Positivity    16.8%

Spread in Detail:

DN                                               82
Azua                                            27
Barahona                                     6
Duarte                                          3
Espaillat                                       13
Independencia                            3
La Altagracia                                11
La Romana                                   8
La Vega                                         7
Maria TS                                       3
Monte Cristi                                 1
Pedernales                                   1
Peravia                                          1
Puerto Plata                                 11
Hermanas M                                1
Samana                                         2
San Cristobal                               48
San Juan                                        4
SPM                                                5
Santiago                                        12
Santiago Rodriguez                      1
Valverde                                        16
Monsenor N                                   2
Santo Domingo                             86
Not Specified                                 23

Spreading more widely now

ANÁLISIS ESTADÍSTICO DE LA EVOLUCIÓN
DEL VIRUS EN LA REPÚBLICA DOMINICANA COVID-19 INFORME #62

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1kbv5Q7 … vsynu/view

Live: Deputies approve extension of state of emergency for 12 days[b][/b]

https://noticiassin.com/en-vivo-diputad … r-12-dias/

Pragmatism prevails. Politically to allow the curfew to end was dangerous if the situation got worse.

Yet again the opposition say this will be the last time, but they forget covid19 isn't listening.

The odds are that in ten days the situation will be no better and maybe worse. Wait and see and at least there won't be some uncontrolled night activity to fuel the fire already lit all around DR until mid June.

And something that is easy to do, which would be even easier in the DR, is to try to do my conversations outside - and to stand cross-wind so that neither of us are either upwind nor downwind of one another.

JR

Jay reasonable people can understand this but not here.  There is not thought or consideration culturally, its all in the moment. That is not a criticism but reality statement.  It is what it is here. IF not legislated no one will pay attention.  Simple.

as I have said before - Ignorant

Lack of education and understanding ....
not a critical comment... an observation

They can't help it

I read some one posting about all this social distancing is for the rich, the educated etc etc and that many locals will die as there is no discipline.

As the extension has now been granted for another 12 days-I think that takes us to 14 June.  I don't believe they will extend again as that would really cause riots.  The elections, which were originally for the 17 May postponed due to Covid-19 are now due to take place on July 5.  I may be wrong but because the incumbent President Danilo Medina is ineligible to stand for re-election, having served two consecutive terms since 2012 and DR has proportional representation, I don't see an overall majority.

This begs the question about all aspects relating to social distancing (virtually none) and what will happen to the R number.  At present it sits between mostly 1.02 to 1.03.  I believe it once or twice fell to 1.01.  My guess, if by miracle, the number drops to 1 or less by the 14 June then many of these politicians will be happy with that and call it a day.  Of the 4 phases introduced by this Gov to ease the lock-down, phase 4   will come into play July 1.  As I've said before there must be huge economic pressures on the country as they watch Europe generally going back to almost normality.

Someone said in a recent post Covid-19 is here for a long time.  True and that is true of countries in Europe too inspite of the easing, the hope is a vaccine will turn up and save millions.  We are at least a year away from that although the race is on between Wuhan and Oxford University to bulk produce starting September!  We will watch this space.

In the meantime I believe DR will open to most things with a controlled aspect of Covid-19, however the locals will continue with their total disregard to social distancing, washing their hands etc.  The next month will be interesting!


Ducketts

The politicians don't decide what covid19 does.

They are focused only on elections. They have said no more extensions before.

Covid19 is along for the ride and the more the people interact the more it jumps from person to person. The congress was full of people lacking social distancing today.

The politicians are ignoring reality in their quest for power. DR has a big problem and it needs every possible control. Polling today said the people believe the President has handled the crisis well 2/3rds approval.

By all accounts the opposition politicians were persuaded by pressure from various sectors. All the straw polling indicated that the majority wanted a continuation of curfew because of the virus is not being beaten. Don't use Sosua as a bell weather. Small community, tourist based with loads of hangers on. In SD commerce is back. Ditto the campo. Like everywhere money - less of it - is circulating again.

The fear is that with all this activity - and believe me the capital is full of traffic jams again - by 15th June it could be far worse.

It is a roller coaster and the folks far and wide in this country could be very much more anxious in 2 weeks. Against the odds I hope for an improvement.

Don't assume anything.

I've been a student of man's relationship to disease for 48+ years.

I could be totally wrong but I see a 3 run of this stuff.

Best case.

Jay Reynolds

Good post and I agree with most.
However, you say” Don't use Sosua as a bell weather. Small community, tourist based with loads of hangers on. In SD commerce is back. Ditto the campo. Like everywhere money - less of it - is circulating again”.
Never considered Sosua as a bell weather.  It is the larger towns/cities which appear to have the problems.  Yes, few are respecting social distancing including the very people seeking power.
What will happen after 15th June one will have to wait and see.  But may I ask why are the law enforcement agencies are not our there in Santo Domingo making sure people respect the guidelines issue by the Gov?  One answer is probably because the politicians do not respect the guidelines themselves.  And with that in mind how can any country win a battle against Covid-19.
However regardless of your depressing but probably correct analysis, I repeat the economic pressures are huge and somewhere down a noticeably short line politicians will have to decide rightly or wrongly what takes preference.  What I’ve seen so far doesn’t fill me with any confidence in dealing with this virus.

Ducketts

The opening the small businesses is significant, even with supposed limitations of numbers of employees, and puts food on the table for many.

Many aspects of economic life have returned to DR but still not everybody is back at work and many pf those are still supported by government short term schemes.

Tourism and all forms of hospitality are still closed and will probably be for many weeks more and will not recover quickly with a global lack of earnings problem affecting vacations. even worse will be reluctance to travel during a continuing pandemic. As such in places like Sosua that depend on tourism, people will be uncomfortable with the continuing controls through emergency powers more than elsewhere.

All counties in the world will be adjusting to a new economic reality and it is going to hurt developed nations as much as developing nations and particularly their citizens who are mortgaged up to the hilt. In DR that will apply to the middle class in particular. The domestic economy will kick on but the external debt will have an effect and this will have to solved at a global level with so many poorer countries and the rich too with massive problems. My greatest concern was always the longer term effect of covid19 on society and the potential for civil unrest. When people can't pay their bills or can't put food on the table it can get dangerous. Hopefully we are passed that threshold in DR and our problem is trying to keep the  virus in check and be able to live alongside it.

Interesting conversation. 

We are missing an element.  In the.polls.showing 2/3 want a continued curfew - I wonder if anyone asked why?  In times of hardship there is a serious spike in crime.   People are afraid without the curfew it's back to normal with crime.

Govt extended social support programs through June, almost right to to the election.  Added.new supports for.business (which many don't qualify for) for June as well.  I can see this all falling.apart in July. 

All we.can do is wait and see.

I personally had a bad day yesterday.  I have supported a lot of people through this. I have stayed at home and followed the rules.

Yesterday dozens of photos on social media of.mainly expats doing what they want.  At the public pool, at the beach and having parties.

I am really fed up with it all.   At least I have a roof over my head, internet, cable and my air conditioner!    Many are not so fortunate.   

I am not inclined to help some expats anymore!

I hear you Planner.  Same where we are.  Partiers' all night, but that's the culture.  I too am fortunate and I am able to distance myself.  So, we do what we can and wait to see what happens.  I'll say it again...most of this is out of our hands.  The best we can do is stay positive, observe the "rules", be patient and wait and see...

Anything can happen if you think positive.  Heck, this virus could evaporate tomorrow...who knows.  Science is a great thing, but it's not the only thing that rules the world.  People play a large role in our destiny and people can change in a heartbeat.

Everyone, have a Happy Mother's day and thanks to God we are still here.

Agreed.  I am a realistic but positively biased person.  I hope this gets better!

I also think it's important not.to ignore how we feel about it all.   

Today is a better day all around.   

I do worry about all the mothers day visits today!   Just the people we do not want getting this mothers, aunts and grandmother's.

Bulletin #73:

Total Confirmed Cases:   17285     Increase:   377
Total Deaths:                          502    Increase:        4
Total Recovered:               10599     Increase:    982
Total Active Cases:              6184     Decrease:   609
Total PCR Tests:                  81642    Increase:   2475      Day positivity  15.2%

Spread of New Cases:

DN                                         85
Azua                                      22
Barahona                               7
Duarte                                    6
La Altagracia                         15
La Romana                            11
La Vega                                    7
Maria TS                                  1
Pedenales                               1
Puerto Plata                            3
San Cristobal                          18
San Juan                                   1
SPM                                           4
Sanchez Ramirez                     3
Santiago                                   19
Valverde                                    2
Monte Plata                              1
San Jose                                     3
Santo Domingo                      114
Not Specified                            54

I have been out to the campo for the first time since the virus came to DR and it was a pleasure. I do love the country north of the capital but it has been very dry in most of Monte Plata province which surprised me.

I would say that the campo is almost back to normal and the only places closed are the few bars and drinks scattered around. People are respecting their turf and even on a Sunday the colmados are quite and the police visited the ones in the small pueblo where I have land and made sure everybody was keeping their distance. It appears to be young men that are disregarding the controls most.

Interestingly Monte Plata province has had very few confirmed cases; 38 after one new one today but 6 deaths and only 301 tests for a population of 223k! According to one of my maestros there are zero cases in Sabana de Grand Boya which is perhaps the second biggest town, but then you also hear that people who get infected and their whole families self isolate to avoid the authorities. Easier to do in the campo than bigger towns.

Everything reassures me that a great swathe of Dominican society (the campo) is avoiding distress and the  risky behaviour we see in the big towns and cities. Lack of buses serving the more rural communities is a good thing keeping the virus at bay.

I have been saying this all along... campo vs city

But i wonder about today - Mothers' Day - how many city folk will return to the campo to celebrate.
I see a lot of 'grouping' here in my locale.....
just families... not big, big.... but perhaps the city dwellers are here

That wouldn't be good.

Generally, I see a lot of masks and distancing.
bit of a breakdown today....

People are everywhere,  no respect for the curfew and no enforcement today. its mothers day. What better way to celebrate then infecting them!

Perhaps this approach is one to consider-
============================================


When Julia Marcus saw people being shamed on social media several weeks ago for going to a public park during the lockdown, she had a flashback. It reminded her of the shaming of gay men for having sex during the AIDS crisis. And she thought it was both cruel and unproductive.

So Marcus, an epidemiologist at Harvard Medical School, began speaking out in tweets, television interviews and two articles in The Atlantic.

I think she’s emerged as one of the most thought-provoking writers on the coronavirus, and I wanted to encourage people to think about her argument.

Marcus is calling for a “harm reduction” approach. People won’t remain shuttered in their houses for months, just as they won’t stop having sex. The key instead, she says, is helping people understand how to reduce their risk of contracting the virus — say, by meeting up with a few (masked) friends in a public park. If shaming keeps them from doing so, they may instead meet indoors, which is much more dangerous.

“The abstinence-only and harm reduction approaches share the same goal of reducing illness and death,” she told me, “but from what we know about H.I.V., substance use and other areas of health, harm reduction is far more likely to work.”

For more, check out an infographic on risk that Marcus and Ellie Murray, another epidemiologist, created; and Marcus’s more recent Atlantic article, which promotes the Canadian idea of “double bubbles,” in which two families agree to merge their quarantines.

I believe that this is being used, the I am doing it for you, approach.

Here in Moca my Dominican family - wife, her parents, sister, sister from New York with handicapped daughter (stuck here since late March but returning 6 June) her boyfriend, daughter & hubby plus grandkids - we all quarantined & strictly followed the rules. Daughter went back to her manager job working a private Lab wearing full PPE - so we as a group are safe - with no outside persons entering our homes etc. We gather as a group on Sundays (most of us); all wash groceries, use masks when out, use hand disinfectant, wash clothes and shower when returning form excursions like going to Jumbo/La Serena/Caribe Express etc. However, many are not. In lines, while they wear masks, SD is not followed and some do get angry when (I) enforce when out. But as mentioned, large groups of young men are the most prevalent abusers  while it seems some middle age & seniors still do not fully understand the situation, despite the fact they have masks on. It is kind of scary watching all this - as much as it is reading about how our own "developed" countries are reacting. Would be great if they developed an accurate "self-test" package whether it would good here or not is questionable. In any case, we have our safe places but it does worry me more when I do have to go out. On another note, someone mentioned about the USA opening up rules to enable air passengers to transit through US airports - I've been looking all over for more info but can't find any. If anyone can direct me to such, I'd like to check it out...thanks