COVID-19

I am back to work and  now the fun starts.  My staff work outside in the heat and it will be a battle to enforce the mask use!  IT is mandatory and there are no excuses with me.

Good luck

Everywhere I go I see few people respecting the mask guidelines

Ducketts

Bulletin #74:

Total Confirmed Cases:    17572     Increase:   287
Total Deaths:                           502    Increase:       0
Total Recovered:                  10893   Increase:   334
Total Active Cases:                6177    Decrease:    47
Total PCR Tests:                  83444     Increase:   1797   Day positivity    16%

New Cases Spread in Detail

DN                                            54
Azua                                         17
Baoruco                                    1
Barahona                                  3
Duarte                                       2
La Altagracia                            11
La Romana                                2
La Vega                                      9
Maria TS                                    1
Peravia                                       2
Puerto Plata                              6
San Cristobal                            24
SPM                                             8
Santiago                                     9
Monsenor N                               2
Santo Domingo                       116
Not Specified                            18

USA Transit

My daughter & her boyfriend are booked out --

JetBlue SDQ -NYC...........BA NYC-LHR

It can be done they say

MASKS

my experience is that I see them wearing masks all the time

riding the moto, working alone in a field

I use the mask in when in groups , a store and so on
I don't sit at home watching TV w/ it.... and I bet many do

The mask is so YOU don't spread the virus.....
to me - that dictates wearing one in close proximity to others

Absolutely amazing!

According to IATA DR has all its airports closed and yet I note today several flights are operating and they are not repatriation flights:

(SJU) San Juan    9:17 AM    Landed
B6 510    JetBlue Airways    (JFK) New York    9:44 AM    En Route
B6 2948    JetBlue Airways    (FLL) Fort Lauderdale    10:16 AM    En Route
EK 6990 ^    Emirates    (FLL) Fort Lauderdale    10:16 AM    En Route
P5 7083    Copa Airlines Colombia    (BOG) Bogota    11:02 AM    Scheduled

Is this the re start or what.

Williweb I'm delighted for your daughter but she's fling into the most infected city in the world

Ducketts

These are not scheduled flights as normal.  Only bringing Dominicans here and expats out. Nothing else is permitted

Ducketts
the novio will be take the whole trip....

she is going to either stay here w/ me or jump ship in NYC to go to her mother in PHL

SHe has no desire or need to return

I just wanted to tell you that connecting Europeans can get out
The boyfriend is.... he's had 2 cancellations but those were Virgin - NYC/LHR

I suggested BA and voila..... it worked
He has the ESTA (?) card

Planner..... yes - connection onward passengers are allowed

ANÁLISIS ESTADÍSTICO DE LA EVOLUCIÓN
DEL VIRUS EN LA REPÚBLICA DOMINICANA COVID-19 INFORME #63

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1LsJPMV … oL1mw/view

Thanks WillieWeb

Delighted for him.

Unfortunately as my wife is Russian impossible to go via the US as she requires a transit C1 Visa.

There is one repatriation flight from Punta Cana to London Heathrow on June 3 but was unable to take up this flight.  And so we wait

Ducketts

Bulletin #75:

Confirmed New Cases:    17752      Increase:    180
Confirmed Deaths:               515       Increase:      13
Confirmed Recovered:      11075     Increase:    182
Total Active Cases:               6162     Decrease:      15
Total PCR Tests:                  84638     Increase:    1194    Day positivity    15.1%

New Cases Spread:

DN                                       53
Azua                                      9
Barahona                             4
Independencia                    1
La Altagracia                        6
La Romana                           1
La Vega                                 6
Maria TS                                3
Puerto Plata                         2
San Cristobal                       10
Sanchez Ramirez                 1
Santiago                                13
Valverde                                 3
Monsenor N                          1
Monte Plata                          1
Hato Major                            1
Santo Domingo                   62
Non Specified                        3

Typical Tuesday with less tests. We can't understand the spread with less tests and the cases reported are widespread.

As always thank you.

ANÁLISIS ESTADÍSTICO DE LA EVOLUCIÓN
DEL VIRUS EN LA REPÚBLICA DOMINICANA COVID-19 INFORME #64

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1u__liE … ARTgu/view

Bulletin #76:

Confirmed New Cases:    18040     Increase:    288
Total Deaths:                          516     Increase:        1
Total Recovered:                11224    Increase:     249
Total Active Cases:               6300    Increase:        38
Total PCR Tests:                  86285    Increase:    1647    Day positivity  17.5%

Spread of New Cases:

DN                                           70
Azua                                           4
Duarte                                       3
EL Seibo                                    1
La Altagracia                            11
La Romana                               10
La Vega                                       5
Puerto Plata                              3
Samana                                      3
San Cristobal                            13
San Juan                                      2
SPM                                              2
Santiago                                      13
Monte Plata                                 1
Santo Domingo                          108
Non Specified                              39

Today I had to go to 4 places,.  3 of the 4 have completely  let down their guard!   

Only 1 has still got all procedures in place!

ANÁLISIS ESTADÍSTICO DE LA EVOLUCIÓN
DEL VIRUS EN LA REPÚBLICA DOMINICANA COVID-19 INFORME #65

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1pOQGQH … orrEo/view

https://presidencia.gob.do/noticias/gobierno-anuncia-entrada-fase-2-desescalada-partir-de-manana-tasa-de-contagio-se-ha

Government announces entry to phase 2 de-escalation starting tomorrow; contagion rate has flattened and lethality is one of the lowest   

The Government has decided to continue with the de-escalation strategy "Living together with COVID-19 safely", entering stage 2 tomorrow, because the contagion rate has flattened and lethality are relatively low.

The announcement was made today by the Minister of the Presidency, Gustavo Montalvo, as coordinator of the High-Level Commission for the Prevention and Control of Coronavirus (COVID-19), who stressed that the collective sacrifice of recent months has it was worth it.

Authorized companies and number of workers

“In this new phase, micro-companies with between 1 and 10 employees will be able to work with all of their collaborators. For their part, small companies, with between 11 and 50 employees, will be able to incorporate 75% of their workers, while medium and large companies will be able to work with 50% of the staff. ”

He pointed out that the aforementioned percentages apply to sectors that previously did not have permission to work, since from the beginning an operation of agriculture, manufacturing industry, free zones, mining, essential trade, health, with a prudent number of workers was allowed.

"We remember that now the stores of the shopping malls will be able to remain open, but the food, games and recreation establishments will remain closed in order to avoid crowds."

Intercity transport buses and minibuses

In this context, he informed that the buses and minibuses of the interurban transport will be able to start their operations from tomorrow, using a maximum of 60% of the seats, always with distance between the passengers and following the corresponding protocols.

Movement of essential workers during curfew

Regarding the circulation permits for people during curfew hours, he clarified that "this exception only applies to employees of companies whose purpose is to work 24 hours, or that their night work is absolutely necessary."

The coordinator of the High Level Commission reiterated that the transport of cargo, goods and fuel can transit without the need to carry a permit.

He urged workers who need to apply for a permit to do so through their company on the coronavirusrd.gob.do page  .

Churches will open with few people and only on Sundays

Another novelty of the second stage announced by the Minister of the Presidency was the authorization to the churches to open their doors, only on Sundays, with a reduced percentage of people.

“Always with a minimum of 2 meters of distance between each person, and following the protocols that will be published. In the case of Adventist churches and others that celebrate their services on Saturdays, they are allowed to start, with one religious service per week.

Result of measures adopted and patience of families

Minister Montalvo explained that the decision is the result of the measures adopted during the state of emergency and the patience and discipline of the Dominican families.

He stressed that, after 3 months of the first case in the country, the Dominican Republic is the second country in Latin America that has slowed the growth rate of the number of infected most.

"We have reduced the rate of natural transmission of the virus to more than half," he said, explaining that it is estimated that each infected person infects 2.5 more people, while in our country this basic number of reproduction is around 1.2.

Healthcare system

He estimated that, as of today, only 20% of the total available beds are being used.

"In the public network we have 2,595 beds available for COVID-19 patients and more than 430 in the private network. In the isolation centers we also have a capacity for 4,011 more people, if their use is necessary."

Similarly, he said that the country has more than 150 beds in intensive care units (ICUs) with ventilators available.

"Still, we are continuing to work intensively to increase the number and dozens of new fans will be installed in the coming weeks."

Regarding the management of positive cases of COVID 19, he pointed out that the case fatality rate is now 2.86%, one of the lowest in the region.

"Obviously, our desire is that no one should die, but we know that the global death rate is around 6%. Even high-income countries show case fatality rates much higher than the Dominican one. ”

It is not a time to relax, but to live responsibly with the COVID-19

He urged the population to maintain social and physical distancing measures, “because the virus has not disappeared. This is not the time to relax, it is the time to live responsibly with the COVID-19 ”.

“International experience already shows us the consequences that this can bring. Many countries have been forced to reverse the opening measures due to spikes in contagion ”.

Phase 3 would start next June 17 and stage 4, in July

He announced that phase 3 would start on June 17. At this stage, churches will be able to worship three times a week. And it will be until the fourth phase, which would begin in July, when airports, restaurants, gyms and other activities where a large number of people can gather will be reactivated.

https://eldia.com.do/epidemiologo-dice-no-habia-condiciones-para-segunda-fase-del-descalamiento/

Epidemiologist warns there were no conditions to move to the second phase of the de-escalation

Santo Domingo .- The government has the flag raised celebrating the success of containing the coronavirus in the first 14-day phase of the "de-escalation" and economic reactivation. However, the reality is different, according to an epidemiologist who has followed up on the pandemic.

Epidemiologist Carlos Feliz said that the pandemic remains active, that it has not been flattened, that citizens are not complying with measures such as social distancing and that the government is using the coronavirus politically in the face of the upcoming elections.

According to the specialist doctor, the bulletins reflect the figures that the health authorities want to be based on the perception of citizens and the country.

"The move to the second phase of the pandemic normalization process has not corresponded to the improvement of epidemiological variables, that is not true. The criterion that the epidemiological curve has been flattened by the measures that the government has implemented, according to the minister (Gustavo) Montalvo, is totally uninformed and does not correspond to the epidemiological reality, ”he observed.

He argued that the pandemic is in the country in its active stage, "it has not even reached its maximum peak, the epidemiological curve."

He said that the opening of the second phase does not respond to improvement of the epidemiological variables.

"There are constantly around 10 provinces here that are active in the case development period, with clinical manifestations," he noted.

He noted that this means that there is no decrease in the epidemiological curve.

"It is a political criterion, that is false. It is painful to go to a phase that from the epidemiological point of view, not all the conditions are in place, to generate a public image that we are doing well. ”

He assured that the figures offered by the Ministry of Health are managed. "Notice that in bulletin 75 there were 180 cases and today (this Wednesday) there are 288. And how is there flattening of the epidemiological curve if there are more cases each day in relation to the previous day?" He asked.

He added that the population does not comply with social isolation measures and gave as an example that concho cars do not comply.

I would be inclined to agree on this.

Bulletin #77:
   
Confirmed New Cases:     18318     Increase:     279
Confirmed Deaths:                520     Increase:          4
Confirmed Recovered;      11474     Increase:     250
Total Actives Cases:             6325     Increase:        25
Total PCR Tests:                 88056     Increase:     1771     Day positivity     15.8%

Spread of New Cases:
   
DN                                           51
Azua                                        17
Barahona                                 1
Duarte                                       1
Espaillat                                   13
La Altagracia                             6
Monte Cristi                              1
Pedernales                                3
Hermanas M                             1
San Cristobal                            24
San Juan                                     5
SPM                                             1
Santiago                                      5
Santiago Rodriguez                   2
Valverde                                     18
Monsenor N                               1
San Jose de Ocoa                       5
Santo Domingo                        114
Not Specified                            10

Not looking any better.

Correct, it is not getting any better as a whole, albeit the death rate, hospital occupancy and the lower number of confirmed cases in parts of the Cibao including Santiago are positives.

But clearly there is transmission continuing with no signs of any retreat in many provinces and the level of testing is not going to show all the cases that probably exist.

We are now getting to the point where any additional cases arising from the Phase 1 of opening up begin to show up, being two weeks later and allowing a lag between test and results.

My concern is the opening up of travel by auto bus around the country may spread the virus more widely now in Phase 2.

Having travelled many times as a sardine in these buses I can only add that to allow the services to re start would sheer madness, but that's just me.

The R number continues to float between 1.1 to 1.03 so yet to see it below 1.  However as the testing is suspect I wonder what the real R number really is!

Ducketts

Even at 60% capacity it's  not good.  And yes the concern about moving this virus around the country is again a real one.

Public transportation in the capital is absolutely ridiculous.  6 plus driver crammed in.   Not good where we already have the most cases.

ANÁLISIS ESTADÍSTICO DE LA EVOLUCIÓN
DEL VIRUS EN LA REPÚBLICA DOMINICANA COVID-19 INFORME #66

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1nu0vHb … cqaGo/view

Bulletin #78:

New Cases:           18708     Increase: 389
Total Deaths:            525     Increase:      5
Total Recovered:  11736     Increase:  262
Total Active:             6447     Increase:  122
Total PCR Tests:    90141    Increase: 2085      Day positivity    18.7%

Spread of New cases:

DN                                          102
Azua                                         22
Barahona                                  4
Espaillat                                   12
La Altagracia                             9
La Romana                              10
La Vega                                      6
Maria TS                                     1
Peravia                                       2
Puerto Plata                              3
San Cristobal                           22
San Juan                                    10
SPM                                             1
Sanchez Ramirez                       2
Santiago                                     21
Monsenor N                                2
Santo Domingo                      134
Not Specified                            26

More tests and more cases. Simple as that. Could the beginning of the First Phase spike is coming?

It is just a steady upward slope and maybe now with regular 2k plus tests a day it will steepen. Zero flattening as a whole maybe a bit in some places with no regular large scale testing.

Not good news.

However with a population of 10.5m people and currently some 525 deaths, that's 48 deaths /100,000 of population it is doing much better than many other countries.  But I guess your answer would be not enough testing so not sure where the virus is in the country and what the real R number is!

Only time will tell

Ducketts

The low death rate is a real positive and so is the usage of hospital beds and ventilators and it shows the benefit of controlling the rate of spread earlier. The death rate may be affected by people dying at home having not gone to hospital and not being recorded as covid19 and the use of a cocktail of drugs. But is still going to be better than many countries and a real plus.

The worry is that the level of testing in some provinces is very low. Puerto Plata and Samana are examples as is Espaillat which seems to have an ongoing problem. Santiago testing per head is low too. Duarte looks to have cooled down.

They have been testing more in recent days in La Altagracia and La Romana and they find new cases. Azua too. Then you have San Juan where testing positivity was very low but all of a sudden 10 new cases today. Valverde has a problem but testing is low too.

And the capital just keeps adding daily along with San Cristobal.

Virus must be looking to hitch a ride to new pastures now the buses are back and people are mingling.

Wait and see.

ANÁLISIS ESTADÍSTICO DE LA EVOLUCIÓN
DEL VIRUS EN LA REPÚBLICA DOMINICANA COVID-19 INFORME #67

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DvfpS9 … F6zWN/view

https://hoy.com.do/el-covid-19-se-expande-en-el-evaristo-morales-denuncian-salud-publica-no-les-hace-caso/

Seems there are plenty of cases in the centre of the capital, north of 27th Plaza Lama and west of Churchill.

More people with symptoms

Community leader Sarah Hernández says that in this sector more people have symptoms similar to those of the coronavirus, but she is not motivated to take the tests, fearing that they will be charged. Call the authorities to pay attention to Las Caobitas del Evaristo Morales.

And this is a well to do part.of the city. Imagine in the barrios where they don't have money for food let alone this test.

The K value may be more important now!

Interesting and more reason in DR for not opening those mass assemblies until August 24th......

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-what-is-the-k-number-and-how-could-it-help-end-lockdown-11999741

Coronavirus: What is the K number and how could it help end lockdown?

Not everyone with COVID-19 infects the same number of people and understanding why could help some restictions be safely lifted.

Researchers from the LSHTM therefore think R could be "drastically reduced by preventing relatively rare super-spreading events"..........

As it means that as long as events where super-spreading might take place are prevented, other areas of life could begin to return to normal.

A low K value could also aid track and trace efforts, as it suggest the majority of new cases will be caused by just a small number of individuals, which could help make new infections easier to identify

Interesting!

Bulletin #79:

New Cases:                 19195          Increase:  487
Deaths:                             536         Increase:     11
Recovered:                   11919         Increase:   183
Active Cases:                  6740         Increase:   293 
Total PCR Tests:          92220         Increase:   2077      Day positivity   23.4%

Spread of New Cases:

DN                                69
Azua                              10
Baoruco                         4
Barahona                      35
Duarte                            1
El Seibo                           1
Independencia              8
La Altagracia                 25
La Romana                     4
La Vega                           16
Peravia                            1
Puerto Plata                    8
San Cristobal                 53
SPM                                  3
Sanchez Ramirez            1
Santiago                          12
Monte Plata                     1
San Jose                            4
Santo Domingo              118
Not Specified                  113

The expected spike from phase 1 reopening begins?

Had they got to the 2400 tests they can achieve, then DR would have had it's highest daily total!

Yikes!

ANÁLISIS ESTADÍSTICO DE LA EVOLUCIÓN
DEL COVID-19 EN LA REPÚBLICA DOMINICANA INFORME #68

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1e7RvZt … l6SIS/view

Back to 1.03-It's like a seesaw between 1.01 and 1.03

Ducketts

It is not the R value. It represents the rate of increase of the total reported cases. You need 500 plus cases tomorrow to maintain the 1.03 and if the testing numbers drop that will not happen. Or no new cases to get to 1.00.

But if there are 500 plus cases and say 2000 tests the trend on positivity is on the up and that suggests more is out there.

A better guide would be to look at the relationship between new cases and active cases.

and we are just into the 2 week period following Phase 1 re-opening

a few more days will tell the tale

Sorry Lennox I don't understand what you're saying.

Look at France:

The lowest case of testing in Europe, the lowest new cases and the lowest new deaths.

DR has +19000 cases and 536 deaths and 90,000 tests

The UK has the highest reported deaths and yet the R number is between 0.7-0.9

I don't understand the correlation between these 3 countries and the numbers

Ducketts