COVID-19

DR generated 487 new cases yesterday from 6740 reported active cases. Those are two numbers that are important and not the total cases.

We know there are asymptomatic cases as well and with the lack of testing even more active cases, but what is say to me is that the transmission is quite high.

I believe the positive to negative test ratio is a decent indicator of how virulent the virus is in any area but only if a reasonable number of tests are involved. We should worry if that keeps creeping up. PAHO suggested it should remain below 10% to be a positive sign.

The death rate is an important guide too and the reported deaths low compared to other countries. For sure people in DR are not going to hospital when they contract the virus and staying at home, and equally deaths at home may not be recorded as covid19. It is an indicator and looks good now but can't be relied on alone.

I've spent a fair amount of time trying to understand the COVID results in different countries to very limited effect, and all of those efforts are clouded by the accuracy of the reporting data, how cases are counted differently in different countries and even counted differently within the same country as is the case in the US.

Broadly speaking, my best sense at this time is that what we see shape up over time are in large part societally, demographically and risk factor driven..

Just a couple of examples:
Italy: High percentage of smokers, multi-generations frequently under the same roof
Japan: Demographically one of the oldest populations but good social measures
US: SOMEWHAT younger population that smokes less but which is more obese and w/ more diabetes. 

Forget the 'demonstrations disaster' yet to fully unfold..

I respect the job you guys are doing down there - especially as compared to the US from which I expect to exit shortly!!!!

All best,

Jay

Bulletin #80:

New Cases:          19600       Increase:     405
Deaths:                     538       Increase:          2
Recovered:            12007      Increase:       88
Active Cases:           7055      Increase:     315
Total PCR Tests:   94511      Increase:    2291       Day positivity     17.7%

Spread of New Cases:

DN                                     122
Azua                                     17
Dajabon                                1
Espaillat                                1
La Altagracia                      14
La Romana                         10
La Vega                                 5
Maria TS                               4
Pedernales                           1
Puerto Plata                         7
Hermanas M                        1
Samana                                 1
San Cristobal                       20
San Juan                                5
Sanchez Ramirez                 1
Santiago                                6
Santiago R                            2
Hato Mayor                          2
Santo Domingo                 186
Not Specified                      -1

Bulletin #81:

New Cases:                 20126           Increase:    539        Highest day increase to date in DR
Total Deaths:                   539          Increase:         1
Total Recovered:        12158          Increase:     151
Total Active Cases:       7429           Increase:     387
Total PCR Tests:         97040           Increase:    2529     Day positivity       20.8%

Spread of New Cases:

DN                                       99
Azua                                     17
Barahona                            11
Dajabon                                1
Duarte                                   2
Elia Pina                                3
El Seibo                                 5
Espaillat                                21
La Altagracia                        19
La Romana                            11
La Vega                                  16
Maria TS                                 1
Pedernales                             1
Peravia                                   4
Puerto Plata                          2
Hermanas M                         4
Samana                                 11
San Cristobal                         41
San Juan                                 7
SPM                                         3
Sanchez Ramirez                   1
Santiago                                 14
Valverde                                 13
Monsenor N                            1
San Jose                                   4
Santo Domingo                     164
Not Specified                           50

Only 6 provinces not reporting new cases.

Effect of Phase 1 opening now beginning to show.

Hospitalisation, intensive care and active cases are all creeping back up.

Like Panama, DR should step back and halt inter provincial travel again and must keep curfew.

This is really not good at all!   Now president needs to request another damn extension of his emergency powers and put a stop to all of this again!

They have to keep a lid on this as much as they can now that 'the genie is out of the bottle'.

The Senate has scheduled a session tomorrow to hear a request to extend the state of emergency and you should expect the President to request that today. To do anything else would be a dereliction of responsibility for the health of the people. The opposition are already saying it is unnecessary - they can't care imo and are playing politics.

The trend over the last few days suggest a spike everywhere in the country due to Phase 1 reopening. This could get ugly if controls are relaxed further and I do fear politicians are starting to forget the measures needed to keep this under control. A LF rally the other day showed hundreds of people in close contact and he said he couldn't manage the security of the crowd!

Tuesday's report (for  a Monday) typically has less tests so don't look at the headline figure tomorrow, look at the number of tests too.

Rallies are still prohibited - live how they lead by example!   

I am staying home unless I have to go out!

I can't think of any European country which hasn't had a second spike and yet most are opening or have opened.   Perhaps I just don't understand:  For example:

Tot Cases/    Deaths/
1M pop    1M pop
   
2,363    448  France
1,857    50    DR

France has done fewer tests than any other European country yet in spite of a second spike have reopened most activities.  I checked this morning with a friend & everything is back to normal

The economic pressures on ALL countries are huge and it seems certainly in Europe the careful balance of containing-not stopping the virus has been a fine balance between health & economics.

So what will DR do.  Continue to seek extensions of curfews-Before the re opening of phase 1 the virus was increasing.

I hope some one can explain in lay terms the logic of DR's methodology!  Thank you

Ducketts

We aren't having a second spike my friend we are still trying to control the first round!

Sorry I'm quoting from Lennox:

The trend over the last few days suggest a spike everywhere in the country due to Phase 1 reopening. That to mean a second wave.

Anyway thanks Planner but this does not answer the question raised.  Added to which considering the total lack of discipline shown by politicians any spike was bound to happen and will continue as the country prepares itself for the elections on July 5.

Ducketts

Executive Branch requests extension of the state of emergency for 17 days from June 14

https://www.diariolibre.com/actualidad/ … GP19348806

There was never any logic in the reopening phasing imo. It was and remains political to try and meet a timetable for elections.

DR never knew the real extent of the spread because testing levels were only just getting to the 50k mark when the reopening was forced upon it by small traders threatening to open anyway.

The 14 day between phases was unrealistic because it takes about 14 days for the effects of opening up to show up in spread.

You can't compare any developing country like DR with a western society so don't try.

DR has kept the spread down by restricting movement and especially at night. This shows in hospital bed occupancy etc. But that can change very quickly with people ignoring social distancing and travelling around the country now buses are in operation. we are seeing cases in many places now....look at Samana with such low testing levels and the main tourist hubs aren't slowing down either.

Thanks Lennox for your reply but I can't agree with:

You can't compare any developing country like DR with a western society so don't try.

As I said you can't keep asking for extensions, and why are other developing countries opening up.
There must be a balance between health and economics surely or am I reading this so so wrong.

The virus will be here for a long time so what does one do-keep the country closed to the outside world?

Thanks Lennox

Ducketts

Interesting news

India, a developing country, has just announced "even thought the virus will be with us for many months to come we can no longer keep our country closed"





Ducketts

Of course you can keep extending the state of emergency and many European countries have done just that.

The constitution here requires that the president gets approval to restrict peoples rights of movement etc. and he has repeatedly asked for 25 days but had to accept less and go back again and again.

With no state of emergency he can't control the phased opening nor keep the curfew.

France extended their state of emergency to July 10th with agreement of the MPs and could extend further until October. DR doesn't have a mature political system and there are some politicians who believe the President does not need another extension. Of course in times of crisis governments need controls and covid19 could easily go out of control here rapidly and politically nothing will happen until a new government is in place late August, so it could be a roller coaster affecting tourism, the economy and travel badly. Reality is that the President needs a state of emergency for covid19 controls until he hands over power but that won't happen.

I don't read this up tick as a spike but rather an acceleration of transmission which was never fully controlled prior to opening up of the economy.

Thanks

France may have extended emergency measures as a matter of precaution but most things have opened up-see the link before.

https://www.linternaute.com/voyage/prat … en-europe/


Anyway Lennox on this subject we will always agree to disagree.  C'est la vie!  The way DR is going it won't go anywhere  except downhill if politicians continue to behave in such disrespectful manner ignoring social distancing etc-utter hypocrisy.  Buses may create a spike here or there.

If you say DR can continue to exile itself indefinitely until the virus is under control so be it.

As India announced rightly so today the virus will be here for a long time to come but we cannot afford to keep our country closed indefinitely so we are going to re open now.  Total common sense.

Thanks for all your input Lennox it's be very helpful

Ducketts

I agree with the terms acceleration, exactly correct.

We have never had proper control and that is part of the issue.   Over a thousand arrested last night for breaking curfew.  Lots and lots more partying and going about business as usual. 

IMHO you cannot start to reopen before you have controlled and slowed this.  They jumped the gun for political reasons and the price will be paid. 

Other countries  really cannot be compared.  Show me another developing country a month from hotly contested election!

https://listindiario.com/la-republica/2020/06/08/621125/el-argumento-del-gobierno-para-solicitar-el-estado-de-emergencia

The Government's argument to request a state of emergency

PRESIDENT MEDINA ADMITTED THAT ECONOMIC OPENNESS RESULTED IN AN INCREASE IN THE FLOW OF PEOPLE

The President of the Republic, Danilo Medina, justified in his request the need to extend the State of Emergency for the fifth time, expressing his concern that the number of positive cases of coronavirus will increase excessively.

"Although we successfully concluded the first phase, we have the enormous challenge of executing the current and subsequent phases of said plan in such a way as to avoid a lack of control in cases of infection that eventually overflows the hospital's response capacity," Medina wrote to the president. in office of the Senate, Arístides Victoria Yeb.

Likewise, the president admitted that the gradual economic opening has brought with it a great increase in the flow of people on the streets, which increases the risk of contagion of the population.

Therefore, the president indicated that it is necessary to maintain restrictions on traffic at certain times, in addition to the temporary closure of amusement centers and restaurants that could cause crowds, measures that are maintained thanks to the State of Emergency.

He also warned that other countries have had to make the decision to reverse their measures to de-escalate restrictions due to the upturn in positive cases of COVID-19, directly related to a sudden opening of activities.

Medina maintained that a balance must be maintained between the opening and closing protocols, in order to guarantee, based on epidemiological data, a full opening of successful economic and recreational activities.

Global context

Despite the rejection of the extension maintained by the opposition parties , the president indicated thatthe average of the State of Emergency periodsin Europe and Latin America are 87 and 112 days, respectively, placing the Dominican Republic under both means, since he's 80.

Similarly, he highlighted that the Dominican Republic is the second nation in the world with the shortest approved term of State of Emergency, which has resulted in us being one of the countries with the most requests for extensions.

The irony is that his arch rival who was 3 times president with the PLD, LF appears set on going against him and refusing the extension arguing no further control is needed because the economy is opening up.

Wow. Just wow.

ANÁLISIS ESTADÍSTICO DE LA EVOLUCIÓN
DEL COVID-19 EN LA REPÚBLICA DOMINICANA INFORME #69

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1y0z3WP … PCBwC/view

Bulletin #82

Total Cases:                  20415       Increase:    289
Total Deaths:                     544      Increase:         5
Total Recovered:          12208       Increase:       50
Total Active Cases:         7663       Increase:     234
Total PCR Tests:            98100       Increase:   1060   Day positivity    27.3%

Spread of New Cases:

DN                                   48
Azua                                  6
Barahona                        27
La Altagracia                   17
La Romana                     11
La Vega                             5
Maria TS                            1
Pedernales                      10
Peravia                               1
Puerto Plata                      2
San Cristobal                    24
Santiago                             5
Santiago R                          1
Santo Domingo                83
Not Specified                    48

As always less tests reported on a Tuesday but the positivity is high! Active cases increasing, hospitalization and ICU creeping up.

Had there been as many tests as yesterday's report with the positivity of today's report we would have had 690 new cases!

Coronavirus: Asymptomatic transmission 'very rare'

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52977940

.......People with coronavirus but no symptoms infecting others is "very rare", a World Health Organization scientist has said.

Although a proportion of people test positive with no symptoms, it is believed these infections are mostly not passed on.

But people can pass on the disease just before symptoms develop.

The evidence comes from countries that carry out "detailed contact tracing", Dr Maria Van Kerkhove said.

Dr Van Kerkhove, the WHO's head of emerging diseases, made the distinction between three categories:

People who never develop symptoms (asymptomatic)
People who test positive when they don't yet have symptoms - but go on to develop them (pre-symptomatic)
People with very mild or atypical symptoms who do not realise they have coronavirus
.......
Contact-tracing studies from a number of countries suggest that while "true" asymptomatic cases "rarely transmit", infection transmission can occur before or on the day symptoms first appear when they may be very mild, according to Prof Babak Javid, an infectious diseases consultant at the University of Cambridge.........

Contrary to this article

"Asymptomatic people can transmit the virus".

https://thepointsguy.co.uk/news/face-ma … ne-travel/

There are now serious questions as to whether T & T is working.  We know WHO believe in it that is one of the reasons they say  "Asymptomatic people can't generally transmit the virus"

Ducketts

Read the definitions. That tells the story.  Who is asymptomatic,  who is  pre symptomatic and who has very mild symptoms?

Err on the side of caution. Simple.

Just received this advert from a large property chain in Sosua-Can this be true?


Summer is on its way and the North Coast is waiting for you!
Come and spend quality time in our beautiful and safe paradise.
Due to the generous distribution of 20,000 m2 of space, the set-up of our complex and various safety protocols, we are happy to be able to provide the recommendations made by the WHO.
See you at the beach!

Ducketts

WHO is backtracking FAST on that Asymptomatic error

Fast & furious

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2 … pdates-us/

ANÁLISIS ESTADÍSTICO DE LA EVOLUCIÓN
DEL COVID-19 EN LA REPÚBLICA DOMINICANA INFORME #70

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1GBp7-v … y7KK2/view

Bulletin #82:

Total Cases:                20808     Increase:    393
Total Deaths:                  550     Increase:        6
Total Recovered:        12318    Increase:     110
Total active Cases:       7940     Increase:     277
Total PCR Tests:        100035    Increase:    1935    Day positivity    20.3%

Spread of New Cases:

DN                                    94
Azua                                   4
Baoruco                             1
Barahona                          17
Duarte                                8
Elias Pina                            2
El Seibo                               3
La Altagracia                     14
La Romana                         2
La Vega                               2
Maria TS                              1
Peravia                                3
San Cristobal                     12
San Juan                              6
SPM                                      3
Santiago                              17
Monte Plata                         4
Santo Domingo                 179
Not Specified                       21

Not good.  and not much we can do about it - meaning us literally!   Its out of our hands and we are spectators. Beyond our own actions and protection there is so little we can do.

According to this article it could very well mean everything could open up from Sunday if there is no political agreement and the only control the government has is limited and not general. Everything would in effect be by voluntary deescalation.

State of emergency and lack of confidence, the legal debate on how to continue de-escalation

Jurists differ on the need for exceptionality to follow the clearing schedule of restrictive measures by COVID-19

https://www.diariolibre.com/actualidad/ … CM19400772

While the National Congress knows the fifth extension to the state of emergency requested by the Executive Power, the opposition parties insist that a new extension is not necessary to continue with the measures adopted to stop COVID-19 and, furthermore, that it has Public Health authorities' handling of the pandemic has been inappropriate.

Outside the political sphere, the debate enters the legal sphere, where consulted lawyers agree on the need to establish the exception to be able to declare the curfew , although they differ on their obligation to maintain the schedule of social misconduct in the four phases programmed by the Government.

"The closure of establishments for health reasons, the minister (of Health) could do it, and also the control of entry and exit to a company. What it could not maintain is the curfew, ”says lawyer Miguel Valerio .

In the case of the curfew, he explains, a state of emergency is necessary, since it restricts freedom of transit, one of the fundamental rights that can only be affected by the exceptional nature authorized by the National Congress.

But for the lawyer Cándido Simón Polanco , both Public Health and Interior and Police could order the closure of a specific establishment for health reasons, but not in a general way throughout the country.

The also jurist Eduardo Jorge Prats understands that, if the National Congress does not approve the extension of the state of emergency, the Government cannot legally impose restrictions on the transit of citizens and other freedoms. "Nor can de-escalation apply because restrictions on existing rights must be removed as soon as this state of emergency ceases," he said.

In accordance with article 149 of the General Health Law (42-01), the Ministry of Public Health and Social Assistance may, “in case of danger of epidemic or declared epidemic, disaster or other serious emergency, declare it as an epidemic the national territory or any part of it and will authorize its local officials and all the institutions of the National Health System to adopt the necessary measures that it indicates in order to avoid the epidemic, control its spread and achieve its eradication ”.

The law also indicates that the extraordinary measures that the Ministry of Health determines will expire 30 days from the last epidemic case of the disease.

As part of the de-escalation of the restrictive measures adopted by the Government to control the spread of the coronavirus caused by COVID-19, four phases were established that span from last May 20 to August 24, when the opening is scheduled of places of entertainment and other activities that involve crowds of people.

From last May 20, when the first phase began, until June 3 when the second began, more than 4,800 coronavirus infections were registered in the country.

In the seven days of the second phase, another 2,489 cases are added, according to the epidemiological bulletins issued by the Ministry of Public Health, which, however, highlight the decreases in lethality and positivity of coronavirus infections in the country.

The head of Health, Rafael Sánchez Cárdenas, insisted today that a state of emergency is necessary to continue controlling the epidemic.

"I have said that I am, not only in accordance with the state of emergency and the curfew, because COVID-19 has not disappeared from the Dominican Republic due to the fact that, due to national necessity, the economy has to be open and business, commercial and social activities return, "he said.

Alternatives

Although the fifth extension of the state of emergency has already been approved in the Senate, with an official majority, the initiative was not known on Wednesday as planned in the Chamber of Deputies, where the vote of opponents is necessary to pass it.

According to the spokesman of the deputies of the Modern Revolutionary Party (PRM), Alfredo Pacheco, the opposition joined in the approach of preventing knowing an agenda where there was the possibility of knowing the state of exception. The president of the House, Radhamés Camacho, called again for Friday.

In the event that Congress does not approve the Executive's request, the President of the Republic, Danilo Medina, has the power to govern by decree, but "it would be unconstitutional," says lawyer Jorge Prats.

"Hence, if there is no congressional approval, the government can only rely on voluntary compliance with the restrictions to combat the pandemic and on the use of the limited ordinary legal powers that the sanitary norms confer on it," he says.

ANÁLISIS ESTADÍSTICO DE LA EVOLUCIÓN
DEL COVID-19 EN LA REPÚBLICA DOMINICANA  INFORME #71

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1rwAn6x … 8ootP/view

Figure 8 - every Tuesdays low testing number distort the transmission factor! Everything is on the up including hospital bed usage and ICU. Steady poor trending and reflecting the opening up a couple of weeks ago.

Figure 4. positivity is going up and up as the mobility increases. We could get a 600 plus cases per day very soon with 2500 day tests.

We could start accelerating the way of Peru, Chile and Brazil quite quickly without any emergency powers control control and by election date it could be grim. And I don't think tourists will want to come then.

Well that matches what I was told by Lishali.   

It's about to get interesting again!  Stay tuned for Friday!

Just seen this article, I wonder how true this is!

https://www.caribjournal.com/2020/06/10 … rism-open/

Ducketts

Bulletin #84:

Total Cases:              21473      Increase:      629         Record
Total Deaths:                 561     Increase:        11
Total Recovered:      12541     Increase:      223
Total Active:                8335     Increase:       395
Total PCR Tests:      100250    Increase:      2465       Day positivity   25.5%

Spread of New Cases:

DN                                    123
Azua                                   26
Barahona                           17
Duarte                                 1
Espaillat                             16
La Altagracia                       8
La Romana                         9
La Vega                               17
Maria TS                               1
Monte Cristi                         1
Peravia                                  1
Puerto Plata                         4
Hermanas M                       1
San Cristobal                      44
San Juan                               15
SPM                                        3
Santiago                               12
Santiago R                            5
Valverde                                1
Monsenor N                         3
Monte Plata                          3
San Jose                                 4
Santo Domingo                   225
Not Specified                        89

Hospital beds and ICU up too.

Grim.

This is NOT going well.   Time to shut it the hell back down!

ducketts wrote:

Just seen this article, I wonder how true this is!

https://www.caribjournal.com/2020/06/10 … rism-open/

Ducketts

I can confirm - Yes - Amanera opens July 1

WillieWeb wrote:

ducketts wrote:

Just seen this article, I wonder how true this is!

https://www.caribjournal.com/2020/06/10 … rism-open/

Ducketts

I can confirm - Yes - Amanera opens July 1

Totally different type of guest.

Very rich and often arrive in their own private jet.

I know about the 'Aman junkies' being part of the Amanyara (TCI) owner's team. Plenty of rich people from the north east are wanting to escape that part of the world right now. Exclusive resorts and they stay on property.

I know what you're talking about
But I see their shuttle cars from SDQ and POP....
not all private flights.... those are to AZS

Other hotels are mentioned too

Somebody must have fed/approved the article

I see the figures have gone up again

21,437    +629    561    +11    12,541    8,335    110    1,977    52

Certainly not enough testing, in fact a rather sad figure and track & trace non existent.

Ducketts

That article about tourism and all airports opening at once is a joke.  Badly written and clearly intended to get people booking flights and hotels. 

Today's numbers tell the tale.  Not even close to being under control and these bozos opening airports and flights!   

This is beginning to piss me off! 

Traffic today in the capital is unbelievable.  I went for a drive just to get out.  Everything is open.  Way too much traffic.  Way too many people in the streets and many without masks.