COVID-19

I'm not sure why you think it's nonsense. 

I got my Dominican landlady to speak with SDQ & POP airports and both confirmed they are opening up first week of July.  Punta Cana has already gone public saying they are opening up July 1  Are they all lying?

Yes the problem in DR is difficult and I'm only please I'm not where you are but as I have stated many times before you cannot ignore the economics-it's a fine balance between health and economics.

I spoke to a well know property consortium who are advertising heavily that they are re opening first week in July.

Anyway we will see but the situation id DR doesn't seem to be getting any better.  Let's see what happens tomorrow or Saturday with the application for a further extension of the lock-down.

Ducketts

It's ridiculous because Puerto Plata airport and Samana and la Romana are NOT scheduled to open July 1. 

They can open but without protocols how does any airline arrive with passengers.  There are no finalized protocols

As always these politicians jump the gun in attempts to look good.

You are now filed under money is more important than lives! 

I am all about balance!  There is none here.

You can open airports, open hotels, schedule flights, arrange health protocols and market as much as you like.

But you cant stop the spread of covid19 without social distancing measures.

And you can't predict if people will travel to countries with a covid19 problem.

Now controlled social distancing measures may be over by Sunday and it becomes a free for all and we have to live with the consequences. And that could be many more cases, health care collapse and less reasons to visit DR.

Here in Cabrera - people are a bit more careful, not all but most
Nagua - not so much

STI is nowhere near compliant from my last 2 visits and I expect
Sto Dom is out of control

1,000 arrests last Saturday for breaking curfew
It took weeks to get to that number originally....in March

Look at the flagrants and count the cases

We will see.

Balance is what it means-careful distribution and care about health  and equally mature consideration about economics-these ingredients  go hand in hand Planner-always have.

As far as airports are concerned we will see.  Punta Cana has publicly said it will open July 1 and the Gov is due to allow flight operations in July.

But then I'm no expert-just a poor observer

Ducketts

Agreed

Ducketts

The border needs to open before flights will start

Natural that the hotels will start first... to prepare
Airports - same

ANÁLISIS ESTADÍSTICO DE LA EVOLUCIÓN
DEL COVID-19 EN LA REPÚBLICA DOMINICANA INFORME #72

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1mKMRmP … a9xUP/view

Continuous increase in new cases is NOT a good sign.

Bulletin #85:

Total Cases:        22008        Increase:    573       2nd highest day total
Total Deaths:        568          Increase:         7
Total Recovered  12754      Increase:      213
Total Active:          8686       Increase:      353
Total PCR Tests:  105016    Increase:     2516     Day positivity   22.8%

Spread of New Cases:

DN                                     183
Azua                                      7
Baoruco                                2
Barahona                             5
Dajabon                               1
Duarte                                  4
Elias Pina                             7
Espaillat                               7
La Altagracia                       11
La Romana                           9
La Vega                                 25
Maria TS                                7
Pedenales                             14
Peravia                                   4
Puerto Plata                          3
Hermanas M                         1
Samana                                  6
San Cristobal                        22
SPM                                         4
Santiago                                 11
Monsenor N                           7
Santo Domingo                    231

17-day state of emergency extension approved, reformers approved agenda

https://www.diariolibre.com/actualidad/ … CP19433537

The Chamber of Deputies today approved the extension for a further 17 days of the state of emergency requested by President Danilo Medina and approved in the Senate.

The approval of the agenda had the support of the Christian Social Reformist Party (PRSC), which minutes before knew in first reading the bill that returns 30% of AFP funds to savers.

ANÁLISIS ESTADÍSTICO DE LA EVOLUCIÓN
DEL COVID-19 EN LA REPÚBLICA DOMINICANA INFORME #73

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1AagmyJ … OgzB0/view

The trends are heading in the wrong direction and upwards more sharply and anybody thinking the curve is flattening is looking at the figures upside down!

Yes we are not doing very well.

AFP - in my opinion this is nothing more than an attempt to gain political points before the July 5 election. 

Regardless of what happens  with the Deputados approving this it will NOT be passed by the senate or the president. It then becomes the problem of the new govt. As soon as they realize the havoc this will cause for the govt accounts it will not be approved when the new gov't takes over.

"According to Coronavirus Bulletin #85 of the Ministry of Public Health’s Department of Epidemiology, the Dominican Republic has 22,008 confirmed cases, 571 new confirmed cases from 105,016 PCR diagnostic tests. The tally of deaths is 568, including 7 new deaths, 5 of these in Greater Santo Domingo. 2,835 patients are hospitalized. Of these, 114 patients are in intensive care units. The number of coronavirus-related deaths continues stable at an average 5.9 over the past 14 days. The fatality rate continues to decline and as of Bulletin #85 is at 2.58%".

Ducketts

But the deaths are beginning to rise and quite obviously the total will decrease as a percentage. think about it.....600 new cases and 10 deaths it has to decrease! The death rate lags the new cases by about a month.

And irrelevant if you are one of those that die or are family. Deaths matter.

DR has ALL the indicators going in the wrong direction and there is NO sign of any flattening but rather the opposite. If cases increase, deaths will follow on. Hospitalizations are on the up.

It is very grim news and RD will join the list of countries that could not take the pain and will have a never ending and probably increasing problem.

If you doubt this go look at the European countries that took the pain and now have the virus manageable with a decreasing case curve, and then compare that with Sweden which is on the up and USA which is rebounding up, Brazil, Mexico, Russia, India and Peru. DR is set to join them. And who will want to come to DR as a tourist when other Caribbean islands are free of the virus, even Jamaica with far less cases, and are discounting heavily? The failure to get this virus under control earlier here will be lamentable.

You can only control transmission by social distancing measures which in the extreme is isolation and whilst not nice it works and society has to adjust!

DR is plagued by opportunist politicians who care toss all about the health of the  people and only their vote.

Covid19 knows no politics!

President Danilo Medina extends state of emergency for another 17 days

https://www.diariolibre.com/actualidad/ … JJ19451383

So unless he changes the curfew it continues until 5am on 1st July

New curfew hours 8pm to 5am every day to 27th - 5am 28th.

I absolutely agree with every word of your analysis!

So whose right about the death rate?  I am confused.


Ducketts

You are also forgetting that DR has a young average population age and only 10% are aged 60 and over.

France has about 24% over 60, USA 20% and UK about 16%, Spain over 20%. Most deaths are over 60 and those with pre existing conditions.

The younger age and some under reporting accounts for the difference and whilst the comparative figure is good it is not a fair indicator of the poor trending we now see on DR.

OMG, too many people on the streets as if the world would end tomorrow. Watched a video of Paris cafes and there were people like crazy and almost no one with masks. I guess people aren't taking this serious enough.
If you get infected having the necessary measures, it's what it is. But get infected and infect others that are sacrificing doing everything for itself and its family members, it's selfish.

Absolutely agree!   Selfish people don't protect others.  Uneducated and ignorant people infect others.   Here we are dealing with both!

ducketts wrote:

So whose right about the death rate?  I am confused.


Ducketts

I think what is being said is -

1st the case rate goes up.... then after however long suffering, you die or not

it takes time for a new case to create a new death..... 2 weeks? 3 weeks? a month?
it really depends on the circumstances/patient

one thing is certain...
the more cases , eventually more deaths

Bulletin #86:

Total Cases:               22572      Increase:   564
Total Deaths:                  577     Increase:        9
Total Recovered:       13084      Increase:   330
Total Active:                 8911       Increase:   225
Total PCR Tests:        107175    Increase:   2159     Day positivity   26.1%

Spread of New Cases:

DN                               106
Azua                              25
Barahona                     37
Dajabon                         1
Duarte                           3
Independencia            25
La Altagracia               20
La Romana                    9
La Vega                         15
Maria TS                         2
Peravia                           5
Puerto Plata                   1
Samana                          1
San Cristobal                69
San Juan                          2
SPM                                  5
Santiago                         18
Valverde                           1
Monsenor N                    1
Monte Plata                     1
San Jose                           6
Santo Domingo            135
Not Specified                  76

Nothing good here.

West of SD looks bad and i would expect Peravia to start showing numbers soon. San cristobal, Azua, Barahona, San Jose, San Juan, Pedernales and now Independencia are showing case increases consistently over recent days. Going east, SPM is creeping up whilst La Romana and La Altagracia continue an upward.

Positvity of testing is now edging back towards it's highs earlier in the pandemic which implies a deep rooted problem nationwide. And the effect of phase 2 reopening is still to kick in!

Absolutely NOTHING good here.  We are going in the wrong direction and there is NO political interest in stopping this.  Buckle up and hang on until after the election!

Surely you mean buckle up even after the election.


Ducketts

Well that will depend who wins honey!     If the current govt manages to win all hell will break loose.  If it's a tight election maybe the same, all hell will break loose!   If there is a clear winner then we could see calm return and some clear direction that is not politicized!

Up until the election anything goes.   In normal circumstances it get chaotic.  Now is nowhere close to normal so it's anyone's guess how this will play out.

I don't have any knowledge of DR politics like you do.  However as a lay person & observer I can only conclude whatever happens at the election, chaos will continue for many months to come-sadly I don't see any improvement in the total lack of discipline shown by any politicians which trickles down the the local communities.

I stand to be corrected of course.

Ducketts

Listen - politics won't affect this spreading issue one iota

The horse is out of the barn..... no matter what
It will take a while.......if we/they can ever turn the tide

boat has left the dock.... bird has flown the coop

hang on.... cuidate

The only political aspect had been action / lack of action as they are playing politics. 

As soon as the election is decided -that part will be over. 

Then we see what they do!

My point is -
any of the political maneuvering is not going affect the flow of transmission that has already started....
We are in for a rough ride..... whichever party wins the election

Election Day
I can't tell you how many I talk to who say they will not vote -
either from the fear of the crowd contact or the dislike of the politicos

Some recognize that these poor decisions will cost lives.

ANÁLISIS ESTADÍSTICO DE LA EVOLUCIÓN
DEL COVID-19 EN LA REPÚBLICA DOMINICANA INFORME #74

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1o5WCBg … u-m5u/view

The graphs on pages 15 & 16 tells you everything. Acceleration after phased reopening allowing a two week time lag to see the real effects.

If they follow the principle of health considerations coming first the start of Phase 3 in the next few days should be delayed. But I bet it does not happen because the phasing is to a political timetable.

Social distancing in all it's forms after reopening when you have control of transmission rates (which DR never had imo) is the only proven way to handle covid19. Ignore that and the cases just grow.

I agree, social distancing is essential but apart from the politics driving matters at the moment I can never see social distancing being taken seriously in DR so this is the problem.  Severe lock down will never happen in my book.  But we will see.

Ducketts

If the deaths start to double then people will take it more serious as will likely to effect someone they know.

If deaths double then we will see the Dominican version of the "blame game". 

It is never anyone's fault.  It is not the 22 year olds fault because he could not stay in at night. It is never momma's fault she was only having coffee with the neighbor.  It's not dad's fault he had to visit his novia.  It's not uncles  fault he was careful playing dominos.  It's not the politicos fault he was trying to get elected. It's not the business owners fault he needed to make money.  It isn't the carro publicos fault he needs to feed his family.

It is everyone's fault we are in this situation.  Until everyone steps up and gets serious it will only get worse.

Totally agree Planner.  However you are asking a miracle of the locals.  They don't even know the word discipline means as currently demonstrated by all, that's politicians down to the street seller.

Ducketts

I am asking it of everyone.

I can tell you expats are equally guilty of not following the required actions!!!   I have had many discussions about this.

Expats are guests in this country and so need to behave better than average!  They absolutely should lead by example.

Of course you're right and I can assure you that we totally follow social distancing.

Unfortunately 95% of the locals do not and that will not change regardless of increases in the virus.

That is a fact I'm afraid.

Ducketts

I don't care what country you live in, do you ever see a politician accept responsibility and not play the blame game...

Well DRVisitor you are absolutely correct,  politicians own the art of  shifting blame!

Government is giving us lip service at the moment. They are  saying they will crack down on social distancing and  mask usage.  They will close businesses that dont' abide by the rules.  The numbers  are beginning to scare them into needing to be seen as "doing" something.