COVID-19

I was out across DN for a couple of hours today in several areas and mask use is absolutely 100%. Social distancing was good everywhere I went. My big concern is that there is far too much mobility and taxis!

I'm sure it drops off in some of the barrios but all the poorer ones close to me are 100% compliant.

Daily we see very poor compliance in the towns on media all around the country and that in the end is showing in daily numbers.

It takes time and daily numbers in the hundreds with deaths are having some effect in the capital or at least DN.

Where one needs to be most cautious is places where there is no social distancing and mask use. There will be cases occuring but under reported in such places and with low testing or very little, it is deceptive.  Santiago still has low testing levels and reported poor controls.

People being infected and hiding from the authorities is problematic, because then they are not able to trace contacts and so it spreads silently.

And then we have the politicos saying the numbers are being manipulated for political ends and they just go on ignoring any social distancing.

ANÁLISIS ESTADÍSTICO DE LA EVOLUCIÓN
DEL COVID-19 EN LA REPÚBLICA DOMINICANA INFORME #78

https://drive.google.com/file/d/14yRFkt … RDvaz/view

Big jump in ICU numbers....

It's fear based on lack of information.  Ignorance causes so many additional issues.

Yes I agree with a great amount said above. From where I sit, what I see and what I hear around Moca, the general population has heard about the virus, they complied with the general quarantine, but they understand very little. They don't understand social distancing and the basics of wearing the masks along the general facts of how this virus spreads. If the powers to be would  spend the time and effort to work on educating the populace, it may be of some help. My friend, who is Dominican, but lived in the USA for many years, and I have spent time in his neighbourhood, and mine, talking to folks. We ask why they wear or do not wear a mask, what they know of the virus etc. Many are better educated in his area, but even so when we provided more info they were somewhat surprised and SEEMED grateful. We suggested they could help by informing their family and friends and that those people do the same.....small steps...but won't hit the poorer areas where even less understanding is the case....
I wear a mask when in close contact with people and carry one always. I do not wear one walking or riding my bike when alone or when riding in a car. After 3 months, not with immediate family because they are either at home or with us.....still feel it's a little risky but if it comes right down to it, I'm prepared to lock our doors to everyone again for 2 or 3 weeks - and I have made that known...cheers

All good advice and ideas.  I too speak to people constantly. Even my well educated programmer  employees do not understand.

I had a 2 1/2 hour  conversation with a well educated man here who had no idea what this was all about.  He said the govt is stupid because they think the virus only comes out at night and that is why we have a curfew and can go out in the day. Did not understand masks at all!  It really is pervasive the misunderstanding and complete lack of knowledge. 

I too constantly explain this.

Education is key and if the politicos would all stop this blame game banter and preach a uniform health message, it would be much better.

The whole issue of the state of emergency has been politicised when it was a straight forward health message to retain controls to manage self distancing at all times of the day.

Now too may people think from a political perspective that controls are to benefit one side when the reality it is to benefit the health of all!

DN is learning the hard way with continuous infections but with so much mobility it doesn't look possible to reduce transmission even with good social distancing compliance and masks.

Now go to the country and without social distancing and low mask use and not much in the way of hand santization and you have conditions ripe for transmission with all this mobility and that is happening in Azua, Barahona, San Juan, La Vega, Espaillat, Valverde, Independencia, La Romana, La Altagracia, San Cristobal and now showing signs of resurgance in Santiago, SPM, Peravia and the Cibao. POP too has low testing and a steady few cases and Samana has very low testing but the odd case. Political rallies will add to the woes.

I live in hope though. Great to read the last post by PVSoldier and his initiatives.

Yes we all live in  hope honey, its the only thing we have it seems at times.

Intensive care units in Greater Santo Domingo begin to saturate

Patients face difficulties finding space

https://www.diariolibre.com/actualidad/ … OF19582963

It's an issue!!

I need dental work done.  I don't freeze so I need IV sedation.  We have been trying to get an anesthesiologist for a month and no one is available!  They are all needed for Covid patients. Soon it's going to be a big problem for me. Ouch!

I know a good one - he's available - his name is Johnny Walker..... 

I prefer my friend Jack!!!

Population of Madrid - 6,617,513
Population of SD - 3,317,784

https://worldpopulationreview.com/world-cities/

The country will be declared a national epidemic

https://listindiario.com/la-republica/2 … a-nacional

The Minister of Public Health, Rafael Sánchez Cárdenas, said yesterday that the institution will issue a confirmatory and regulatory resolution that declares the state of a national epidemic due to the health crisis of the Covid-19 coronavirus.

Sánchez Cárdenas, who offered a press conference from the Z 101 station, said that this resolution will also include measures regarding the use of masks to prevent contagion.

Lawmakers from the Modern Revolutionary Party (PRM) argued that approval of a new extension of the state of emergency was not necessary, as the General Health Law empowered the Minister of Public Health to establish provisions in the event of a national epidemic.

Health Law

Article 149 of the General Health Law (number 42-01) states that “in the event of an epidemic or declared epidemic, or a disaster or other serious emergency, the Secretary of State for Public Health and Social Assistance may declare as epidemic the national territory or any part of it and will authorize its local officials and all the institutions of the National Health System to adopt the necessary measures that it indicates, in order to avoid the epidemic, control the spread and achieve its eradication.

The extraordinary measures that the Secretary of State for Public Health and Social Assistance determines will expire thirty (30) days, counted from the time the last epidemic case of the disease appeared. ”

They can keep bars, clubs, discos and major events closed using the Health Law and maybe can restrict flights from some countries with serious outbreaks as they did pre emergency powers.

DR does have a problem with hospitals reported as filling up across the country now.

Now this is interesting.  I wonder if it includes the curfew?

Bulletin #92:

Confirmed Cases:          25068    Increase:   423
Total Deaths:                       647    Increase:     12
Total Recovered:             14605   Increase:    312
Total Active Cases:          10056   Increase:      99
Total PCR Tests:             119319   Increase:   2200     Day positivity    19.2%

Spread of New Cases:

DN                                119
Azua                                14
Barahona                         1
Dajabon                           6
Duarte                              3
Elias Pina                         4
Espaillat                           2
La Altagracia                  19
La Romana                      6
La Vega                            13
Maria TS                           2
Peravia                              3
Puerto Plata                     4
San Cristobal                   24
SPM                                    5
Sanchez Ramirez              1
Santiago                            34
Santiago R                          1
Valverde                             2
Monsenor N                       3
Santo Domingo                132
Not Specified                      25

Wow

ANÁLISIS ESTADÍSTICO DE LA EVOLUCIÓN
DEL COVID-19 EN LA REPÚBLICA DOMINICANA INFORME #79

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1VP_lod … ZhGwl/view

Yes, he's even better....so I've heard...

Bulletin #93:

Total Cases:                 25778           Increase:   710               Record
Total Deaths:                   655           Increase:       8
Total  Recovered:       14957            Increase:   352
Total Active:                 10166           Increase:   350
Total PCR Tests:          122646         Increase:   3327    Day postivity    21.£%

Spread of New Cases:     

DN                                     201
Azua                                    22
Baoruco                               1
Barahona                             8
Dajabon                               1
Duarte                                  6
Elias Pina                             3
Espaillat                               4
Independencia                    1
La Altagracia                       15
La Romana                          17
La Vega                                 13
Maria TS                                8
Peravia                                  5
Puerto Plata                         2
Samana                                 2
San Cristobal                      56
San Juan                               23
SPM                                       7
Sanchez Ramiraz                 2
Santiago                               29
Santiago R                             2
Santo Domingo                  237
Not Specified                        45

Yikes.  more testing and more positive results.   The % positive is still way way too high.

All the signals are very bad and especially in the capital and Santaigo where hospitals are filling up quickly with cases and intensive care too.

I wrote that we could expect this after the crazy phase 1 opening and we could easily see 1000 plus cases per day now with enough tests.

With an election coming up it will only get worse.

We are heading in the wrong direction like all of the Americas except Canada and Costa Rica. We couldn't take the pain and the virus is now thriving in conditions of high mobility and places here where social distancing is being ignored.

We are entering the 'selfish phase' where we people do what they like until they realize the severe consequences on society, and then they will simply have to clamp down on mobility and self distancing in all its forms again.

It so sad that DR didn't follow the proven routes of Asia, Europe (except basket case Sweden) and the NE states such as NY and NJ, to take the pain until the virus was sufficiently supressed and open up slowly and regain some level of normality.

And the price for this will be paid by many many people!

Greater Santo Domingo, Santiago and Cibao hospitals creaking. Many reports from hospitals and this is not politics. Many more cases around the country now and still not enough testing in the provinces as a whole to know how extensive this really is. The testing results will be lagging the daily numbers by a day or two, so it appears there could be worse news to come.

Hospitals and clinics fill Santiago

https://listindiario.com/la-republica/2 … e-santiago

Clinics and hospitals in Santiago and other Cibao provinces continue to be crowded with patients with coronavirus symptoms.

Meanwhile, doctors say that the Intensive Care units of those centers have rebounded their ability to welcome patients with their own suspicions of Covid-19.

The doctor Daniel Rivera, president of the Board of Directors of the Clínica Unión Médica del Norte de Santiago, said that it was thought that with the high temperature, the levels of Covid-19 would decrease, but this has not been the case. He indicated that the trend remains the same as that of the month of March, which he considers "worrying".

Rivera commented that Covid-19 and mortality were thought to affect older people more.

Likewise, it indicated that many of the cases that are attended in that health center correspond to people between the ages of 41 to 60 years, which indicates that the oldest population is not the most affected.

On her side, the infectologist Margarita Santana, from the Unión Médica clinic, appealed to people to comply with established health protocols.

He stressed that it is important to wear masks, maintain physical distance and maintain hygiene, such as constant hand washing.

Hospital and ICU tests at saturation point in GSD and Santiago

https://noticiassin.com/internamientos- … -santiago/

Wow.  We are in serious trouble and soon the elections!

Bulletin #94:

Total Cases:                   26677      Increase:  899       New day record
Total Deaths:                     662      Increase:       7
Total Recovered:           15138     Increase:   181
Total Active:                    10877    Increase:    711
Total PCR Tests:            125868    Increase:  3222     Day positivity 27.9%

Spread of New Cases:

DN                                           165
Azua                                          16
Baoruco                                     1
Barahona                                 55
Duarte                                        5
Elias Pina                                  12
Espaillat                                    39
Independencia                        22
La Altagracia                            20
La Romana                               33
La Vega                                     12
Maria TS                                     4
Monte Cristi                               8
Pedernales                                6
Peravia                                       2
Puerto Plata                              1
Hermanas M                             1
Samana                                      2
San Cristobal                            68
San Juan                                     2
SPM                                            16
Sanchez Ramirez                      15
Santiago                                     31
Santiago Rodriguez                   5
Monte Plata                                2
Santo Domingo                        290
Not Specified                              66

Spreading fast now with phase 2 now kicking in and more mobility.

The country has a marked difference by province in the number of samples processed by COVID

In Greater Santo Domingo, 64,143 have been processed, while in the border areas Dajabón and Pedernales only 83 respectively

https://www.expat.com/forum/viewtopic.p … 31#4894599

I keep saying the testing levels in some parts of the country are realy low compared with capital. Santiago and PP is low and many provinces very low and so we don't appreciate the scale of the crisis the country is now in. The provinces are in far worse shape than the numbers suggest due to lower levesl of testing in most cases. The capital has better testing but still not enough for the current crisis and magnitude of cases that exist and the queues at hospitals reported in the media.

Forgive me Lennox I am really confused.

You say testing is just not high enough, but if you consider the following:

France  Total cases/1m pop=2453, Tests/ 1 m pop=21,214
UK                                            =4484                             =116,243 (Highest in the EU)
DR                                            =2377                             =11,309

I illustrate France which is virtually back to normal, with a few cases of Covid-19 yet has done badly compared with the UK with has much higher testing and T & T yet the UK not performing as well as France with regarding to the virus control.  Added to which France operate SD of 1 metre and the UK 2 metres.

So my question is where is the correlation amongst all of this with DR?  Thanks

Ducketts

This is about DR and you can't compare this country with any western country. Europe has done better because it took the pain until spread was controlled but that said there are still new cases and many active cases so it could spike again easily.

DR was doing well until it relaxed the controls.

DR's average testing rate now per 100k people is 1131.

But for Puerto Plata province it is only 439 per 100k and Santiago nly 647 per 100k which is well below the national average which is distorted by higher levels in Greater Santo Domingo where not surprisingly more new cases get recorded daily. There clearly are plenty of cases all around DR right now and just over a half are in the capital with much more testing taking place.

And if you read the article you will quickly see that there are many provinces with very few tests to date like Samana (291 total tests), El Seibo (inludes Miches 157 total), Monte Cristi (238), Pedernales (107), Hato Mayor (97) , Dajabon (83) , Elias Pina (193), San Jose (311) and so on.

With so much mobility cases could be spreading easily and a true understanding of infections is unknown especially after political rallies and conglomerations of people. As stated before, many people when infected stay at home and don't report their illness and I know of one such family in Villa Mella.

The best advice these days is assume that many people you come close to daily could be infected and so social distance and use your mask and have that disinfectant gel with you to clean your hands regularly after touching anything. It is the new way of life if you wish to avoid infection.

To put the last paragraph in perspective in relation to the official reports:

We have confirmed active cases of 10,877 and we know that there could be another 40% asymptomatic so 15,228 total which means as a probable minumum 1 in every 700 people on average is positive in DR. Allowing for under reporting, which applies in every country, I suggest you think half that; 1 in every 350 people on average is positive and can spread the virus to you.

Today in Cabrera
everybody assembling for the rallies...

Lots of purple on the streets today....

Many of those people are 'imported' for the event

Spooky!!

Is there social distancing  dare I ask?

As Planner said just wait till the elections.  How soon after the 5th July are the results known?  And what are the bookies saying of the result?

Ducketts

Election results may be know very very quickly.  We could know within a couple hours of the closing. HOWEVER if it is close there may be recounts  and / or there is the need for a runoff it would extend to the the 26th when they will go back to the voting booths. .

We  have some polls coming out all the time.  Recent polls showed Abinader clearly leading but his ability to get over  50% is too close to predict. In addition, we have seen lots of political jockeying and deal making.  Last week they announced a bunch of "resignations" from the PLD but no idea where they were going.

How this will effect us?

Well, its putting a huge damper on ability to manage this thing. No way they will close down anything more until after the elections.  The rallies are starting (or continuing) and it will only get worse! 

Avoid it all!  Do only what you have to do!

To guarantee elections on July 5, the Emergency Committee recommends continuing in phase 2 and incorporating dexamethasone into treatment COVID-19

https://presidencia.gob.do/noticias/par … n-fase-2-e

........"We have reached a series of agreements and recommendations to the Executive Branch. First, we have seen the disturbing increase in cases, not only of more positive patients for COVID, but, more worryingly, of cases that have required hospitalization and the use of intensive care ”........

........Public Health Resolution on mandatory use of masks

He added that "in view of the emergency health situation, we have recommended that the Ministry of Public Health issue a resolution based on our health regulations that makes the use of face masks mandatory for all citizens who are circulating on the streets of our country."...............

Phase 3 start deferred until after 5th July then?

How will this affect hotels and airports and flights? I suspect no flights until after the 5th July other than for election observers.

You are likely correct.

Can you kindly explain what Phase 3 refers to?  Thanks

Ducketts

Phase three is the next level of openings which they partly already did. Originally it included salons which already opened

It would allow larger companies to bring in more staff. Allow smaller and medium to go to 100% staffing. 

Timing of further phases are determined off this as each stage is a minimum 14 days.

Now possibly stage three won't start until July 5 meaning stage four is at least July 19 now.

Mexico's numbers are now skyrocketing. Once it  start it goes fast.

Thank you

However I understood from one of the post yesterday that Phase 4 was still planned for July4

Ducketts

Ducketts
The 4 phase plan has gone awry somewhat...

Certain parts seem to be 'on hold' others go ahead as planned
Not that clear at this point

It's a damn mess.  If you read the original plan it always says it's a projection and subject to actual conditions. 

This is a massive political hot potato.   They will do only what will get them votes and nothing more.  I cannot begin to know exactly what that will be

So, no matter what you read, what they said, until it comes from the president or his representative it's all speculation!  Nothing is written in stone!

Use of masks when out and in private spaces (offices work places etc my guess) now obligatory. MoH have issued a legal resolution 000016 dated today to that effect just now using Health Act with fines applicable for non use between one and ten minimum salaries. Social distancing and sanitary measures are also covered.