COVID-19

They are implementing for when the state of emergency is over. AND hopefully they put some muscle in this.

Bulletin #95:

Total Cases:            27370      Increase:    693
Total Deaths:              669      Increase:        7
Total Recovered:    15338     Increase:     200
Total Active:             11363     Increase:    486
Total PCR Tests:    128775     Increase:   2907     Day positivity     23.8%

Spread of New Cases: 

DN                                          176
Azua                                          19
Baoruco                                     2
Barahona                                   1
Duarte                                        9
Elias Pina                                   1
La Altagracia                            13
La Romana                               26
La Vega                                     26
Maria TS                                     4
Peravia                                        7
Puerto Plata                               5
Samana                                       1
San Cristobal                             46
San Juan                                     7
SPM                                            13
Sanchez Ramirez                       4
Santiago                                     79
Santiago R                                   2
Valverde                                      1
Monsenor N                               13
Monte Plata                                 1
San Jose                                        4
Santo Domingo                          214
Not Specified                                18

No cases only in 7 provinces today. Santiago big jump and steady cases in La Romana, La Altagracia, La Vega, Azua, SPM, San Crisobal and now Monsenor Noeul.

Public Health Resolution: Fines ranging from 1 to 10 wages for those who do not wear masks

https://hoy.com.do/resolucion-de-salud- … scarillas/

The Ministry of Public Health (MSP), issued resolution Monday 000016, dated June 22, 2020, which provides for the mandatory use of masks as a measure to control the spread of COVID-19 in the country.

The provision is made by virtue of the increase in cases of this de-escalation phase and as a measure to continue preventing COVID-19 infections throughout the national territory.

Its a start.

Good explanation in El Dia today for anyone in doubt why DR has a serious problem now:

Epidemiology Society explains why Covid-19 cases have skyrocketed

https://eldia.com.do/sociedad-de-epidem … -covid-19/

With an amalgam of factors ranging from public transportation to the dismissive behavior of Dominicans, the coronavirus has exploded in the country and appears to have no control.

This is how the Dominican Society of Epidemiology analyzes the more than 500 daily cases reported by the Ministry of Health and the occupation in almost 70 percent of intensive care units.

Also, the organization that groups epidemiologists proposes the free distribution of validated masks for the next 15 days in all public places.

The entity ensures that the reopening of public transport in Greater Santo Domingo and the one that connects with the cities of the interior affects the daily increase in cases.

Likewise, the behavior of Dominicans and political activities with their mobilizations and crowds.

"The situation is one of care, we are already on the streets, everyone: vendors, concho cars, crowded fliers, subways, formal and informal commerce of all kinds," he says.

It specifies that with the circulation of more people, the virus also circulates more and mild and moderate cases increase, with the consequent impact on hospital occupation and intensive care units.

"But serious cases will also increase with the known associated co-morbidity that will impact UCIS and mortality rates," he said.

She considers it "extremely delicate in these two weeks leading up to the July elections."

"The measures we adopt should be aimed at considering those that have the greatest scientific evidence available such as hand hygiene, physical distance and the use of masks validated for the recommended time and with the necessary quality, with special emphasis on closed spaces" he indicated.

He recommended paying special attention to health workers, providing them with personal protective equipment and other supplies necessary for timely intervention in health care centers.

Likewise, to nursing homes, "due to the risk variables that occur in this group," as well as to prison facilities.

"The Covid-19 is transmitted by droplets, especially in the vicinity of the air is important in closed spaces, hence the interest in hospital centers, specifically ICUs that treat patients with the disease. Surfaces close to the patient play a minor role in transmission and yield easily with cleaning and disinfection, "he says.

Sadly we already know all of this. And nothing was done.  Now they want to do it......

Here's a disturbing thought

The Sahara Dust that has arrived affects the respiratory system
making infections more susceptible .....

YIKES !!
pass my mask!!

https://dominicantoday.com/dr/local/202 … this-week/

Exactly.  Nothing like piling on the misfortune! And this heat is oppressive in the city.

ANÁLISIS ESTADÍSTICO DE LA EVOLUCIÓN DEL
VIRUS EN LA REPÚBLICA DOMINICANA INFORME #80

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1FLjjpp … 6xfNo/view

What strikes me is the low % of cases in the over 60 age group.  Other countries have huge problems in the over 60 cohort.   And we have low % and low numbers.    Likely explanation is very low testing of these people. They are simply staying home and hiding and suffering!

Remember DR has less over 60's than most countries - only 10% of the population and as you say most are staying at home and taking precautions.

Quite significant to now find out that the virus is beginning to impact all ages more and more and you are not immune to the effects of this virus even if you recover from and infection because it damages lung alveoli long term, so maybe you get better now but are at higher risk of other illnesses later.

Coronavirus: Warning thousands could be left with lung damage

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53065340

This is a nasty virus indeed for all ages and the median age of infection is amongst younger people.

Coronavirus: Warning thousands could be left with lung damage

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53065340

link for previous post

Bulletin #96:

Total Cases:             27936         Increase:     566
Total Deaths:               675         Increase:          6
Total Recovered:     15551        Increase:      213
Total Active:              11,710       Increase:      347   Doubled since opening up began
Total PCR Tests:      130745       Increase:    1970        Day positivity    28.7%

Spread of New Cases:

DN                                    136
Azua                                     6
Duarte                                 1
Espaillat                               2
La Altagracia                      12
La Romana                         10
La Vega                                7
Maria TS                              3
Peravia                                4
Puerto Plata                        5
Hermanas M                       6
Samana                                2
San Cristobal                      32
San Juan                                7
SPM                                       4
Sanchez Ramirez                 2
Santiago                               52
Valverde                                2
Monsenor N                        10
Santo Domingo                  204
Not Specified                       59

Seems the cases are popping up everywhere

Almost all provinces reporting new cases

planner wrote:

What strikes me is the low % of cases in the over 60 age group.  Other countries have huge problems in the over 60 cohort.   And we have low % and low numbers.    Likely explanation is very low testing of these people. They are simply staying home and hiding and suffering!

The USA is experiencing the same -
may not be a local problem

This is contrary to original thinking.... but original ideas went out the window a while ago

We are in the 'Live & Learn' phase of this disease

from Apple News

Young people make up an increasing proportion of new coronavirus infections in hot spots across the South and West, officials say. Meanwhile, confirmed cases in Florida surpassed 100,000 yesterday. CNN

Todays numbers are very bad. The  % of tested coming back positive is brutal!  And the spread is everywhere.

Covid 19 is said to enter our body through eyes, nose,mouth  and when malaysia was in the 2nd month of lockdown, we had 4 chinese doctors who advise our hsp to get patients gargle salt water 3times a day to block the virus from getting into the respiratory tract.It should have worked to some extent i guess. Or could it?

There's all sorts of wives tales out there.

The best I heard recently was shoving a dollop of Vick's Nasal Rub up both nostrils!

Who really knows

Ducketts

Peter that was debunked honey.  Not true!

And yup all kinds of strange and unscientific talk going on.

This sums it up nicely, I think
============================

Anthony Fauci, the government’s top infectious disease expert, told Congress yesterday: “The next couple of weeks are going to be critical in our ability to address those surges that we are seeing in Florida, Texas, Arizona, and other states.” If the surges aren’t reversed, they will create a much larger pool of people who have the virus and can then spread it to others.

Whether the U.S. succeeds during this next stage is not a matter of epidemiology or lab science. It’s a matter of political will. It does not even require severe new lockdowns in most places.

As my colleague Apoorva Mandavilli, a science reporter, says: “There are ways to be responsible and socialize, but people don’t seem to be able to draw the line between what’s OK and what is not. For too many people, it seems to be binary — they are either on lockdown or taking no precautions.”

Sadly the next two weeks will matter for hundreds of thousands, millions both there and here!

Basically you have socially responsible people and selfish people in all countries - those that accept the medical advice and socailly distance and those that reject such advice on grounds of it challenges their civil liberty.

We have it here in DR too with certain politicians influencing opinions. But it has done us no good and DR continues to deteriorate.

Will people adapt and become more socially responsible. Yes I think so in due course as the virus continues to play havoc where social distancing in all it's forms breaks down. Yes too because businesses will have to adapt and emply new measures to survive with covid19.

I think women will be a driving force with change too, because typically they are more socially responsible and family orientated and place a higher value on health of all the family.

The selfish phase continues for the time being with a percentage of the population allowing the virus to expand and affect the whole population one way or another.

Bulletin # 97:

Total Cases:              28631      Increase:      695
Total Deaths:                691      Increase:         16
Total Recovered:      16006     Increase:       455
Total Active:              11934      Increase:      224
Total PCR Tests:      113718     Increase:    2973          Day Positivity    23.4%

Spread of New Cases:

DN                                           150
Azua                                           14
Barahona                                   4
Duarte                                        2
Elias Pina                                    6
El Seibo                                       1
Espaillat                                      26
La Altagracia                              16
La Romana                                 14
La Vega                                       16
Maria TS                                      2
Monte Cristi                                1
Peravia                                         6
Puerto Plata                                9
San Cristobal                              39
San Juan                                      28
SPM                                               4
Sanchez Ramirez                        4
Santiago                                      75
Monte Plata                                 3
Hato Mayor                                 2
Santo Domingo                         238
Not Specified                              35

Yesterday's analysis:

ANÁLISIS ESTADÍSTICO DE LA EVOLUCIÓN DEL
VIRUS EN LA REPÚBLICA DOMINICANA  INFORME #81

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1qLTbv6 … 2oaDi/view

No real change and I dont expect anything but increases until after the election.  Then we see who does what.

Probably said before, but how sad is that the people, whoever they are, have to wait till after the elections to see what will be. 

Ducketts

planner wrote:

No real change and I dont expect anything but increases until after the election.  Then we see who does what.

For sure the cases will not be going down with political rallies and a slow gradual adjustment nationally to wearing masks with better enforced social distancing and no further opening up from stage 2. But in 6 days the curfew could go with the end of the state of emergency and that would add to the cases with nightime conglomerations. Then also there is the possibility of imported cases with international arrivals from infected countries.

Longer term there needs to be a plan to slow the transmissions and that can only come from reduced mobility and human interactions. There are rumours spreading of longer curfews after the election but I doubt that and maybe there will be restricted travel enforcement.

In terms of the curfew -  you can expect the  Minister of health to make a resolution about that soon!   If that goes and nothing replaces it we are in BIG big trouble here. 

Remember that all the additional  assistance for those not working has ended now.   That went for the extra month of June. So those who are struggling get no more assistance!   No curfew we will have additional issues!

Perhaps this is an indication of government thinking now, that some areas may move ahead and others remain on hold or with more controls. Maybe Punta Cana opens whilst other areas don't? But mobility spreads the virus, so free today and infected tomorrow is the reality and so inter area travel is a big factor in play.

Advisor to the Executive Power understands de-escalation should be by provinces, not general

Indicates that COVID-19 does not have the same behavior in all sectors

https://www.diariolibre.com/economia/as … CH19695337

Dr. Alejandro Báez, medical adviser to the Executive Branch and director of the Committee on Emergencies and Health Management, understands that de-escalation and opening should take a local perspective and not a general one.

"We are going to have to understand that instead of making big national decisions where the righteous pay for sinners, we are going to have a switch where we are going to make decisions at the local level, at the provincial level," he said.........

This was the manner in which Ontario, the largest province in Canada staged openings. Toronto, in particular lagged behind other areas in opening up different stages.

ANÁLISIS ESTADÍSTICO DE LA EVOLUCIÓN DEL
VIRUS EN LA REPÚBLICA DOMINICANA INFORME #82

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1BTbG0J … uO_-u/view

Well they are wrong - the virus does not operate differently in various areas!  It operates exactly the same and doesn't care at all.

What is different is people's behaviour and testing!   If % of tests is the same everywhere then you can logically compare areas!   And act as needed.  But then you have to shut down while areas.  How do you shut down greater Santo Domingo and Santiago?   That is maybe 65 to 70% of our population.

So how do you say hotels in punta Cana can open?  The staff come from many other areas.  Do they bring the virus with them?   Do they go back and forth to work weekly or monthly?  How will they manage this?   

The logistics are daunting and sadly I don't have a lot of faith in the system.

What I'd really like to know is if i can come to the DR if I am antibody positive and virus free w/ paper work?

This is getting way messed up.

JR

It's now a new game - tourism opens July 1!!!  Good grief.

jaycreynolds wrote:

What I'd really like to know is if i can come to the DR if I am antibody positive and virus free w/ paper work?

This is getting way messed up.

JR

Tourism opens up with government agreed protocols as of July 1st. For tourists arriving at airports and being met and transported to resorts, their management at those resorts, interaction with hotel staff and arrangements for departure back home.

But we still dont know the official travel requirements for visitors. Which as in other Caribbean islands could be:  preflight health visa clearance which includes travel details, health insurance details, health status, recent PCR test, and testing on arrival.

Watch for news on entry requirements now tourism protocols are agreed.

I can understand a few people might want to go to a beach resort, a few who want a quiet stay in places like Cabrera, but cannot fathom those who think places like Sosua, Zona Colonial and Boca Chica will be the same with nightlife and fun. Masks are mandatory and after the elections with so many cases it could all get tightened up again. It is all change here despite some opening up.

Just to add, tourists going to resorts will not be quarantined with the new tourism protocol other than being managed at their resort, but note that Dominicans who returned home this very week went into 14 days quarantine as are the rules right now.

So unless coming on a package resort holiday to say Punta Cana, it is best to wait to find out the government travel requirements are first when they open borders.

Anything is possible with DR and they are leaving it up to the last minute.

As always last minute is normal here!

So much for Europe being a hope for DR tourism!

WHO: Covid-19 increasing in Europe as lockdowns ease

https://euobserver.com/tickers/148765

Europe has seen a surge of Covid-19 cases since countries began easing lockdown measures, the World Health Organization said Thursday. The WHO's Europe director Hans Kluge said 30 European countries have seen increases in new cases over the past two weeks. He said in 11 countries, accelerated transmission has led to a very significant resurgence. Europe has close to 20,000 new cases and over 700 new deaths daily, Kluge added.

Wow.  So it appears tourism is in for a long slow opening.  Well I cannot say its surprising or not in our best interest.

However, this gov't is going to have to do something to help the people most effected - the waiters, busboys, chambermaids,  beach sellers, tourism taxis,  transfer agents etc.  There are so many of them that will continue struggling!   They are the lowest paid and the first to go!

Because of the system applied by many hotels and resorts (but not all)  many of these people never qualified for gov't assistance the first 3 months of this pandemic.  They need help and they need it now.

True, but they forget to mention in the brief article that these spikes are being contained.  It's not a second wave let's be clear about that.  I would have been surprised if there had not been any new spikes after easing the the various lock-downs.  Look at Germany, within one week R number back down to 0.71-all the major EU countries R number below 1.  Whilst it's important to be aware the most important action is to contain and get the economies working again.  The right balance is so important.


Ducketts