COVID-19

Yesterday's analysis:

ANÁLISIS ESTADÍSTICO DE LA EVOLUCIÓN DEL
VIRUS EN LA REPÚBLICA DOMINICANA  INFORME #87

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1RRoBl4 … nJzIh/view

Not to mention the airport arrivals from the highest infected country are arriving today..

DR1 Travel News for Wednesday, 1 July 2020

https://dr1.com/
The best internet resource for information on the Dominican Republic
Delivering the Dominican Republic's news daily since 1996!



DR reopens to tourism
https://dr1.com/forums/threads/.393556/#post-5537507
In what seems to be a birth with forceps, the Dominican Republic has reopened to tourism. At times when the Ministry of Public Health declares the Dominican Republic officially under an epidemic, subsector protocols have been issued to enable tourism activities and at the same time reduce the risk of the spread of Covid-19.

This is what is in effect as of 1 July 2020:

There will be temperature checking at the airport. Nevertheless, there are no restrictions for arriving passengers. That is, no PCR or testing certificates are required. There will be no quarantine for arriving passengers, with the exception of those that test positive for fever upon arrival.

The curfew is lifted. Mobility is authorized at all times.

Restaurants are authorized to serve patrons until 10pm, afterwards by takeout or delivery. They are under new protocols.

Discos, casinos, cockfighting, movie houses and theaters are still closed.

Gyms are authorized to open. They are under new protocols.

Sports and artistic events and events with large people gathering are banned. Churches are allowed to operate following protocols.

Outdoor excursions are allowed, under new protocols. 

Sailing, golf and tennis are authorized. Practicing for other sports will be authorized as of 8 July. All these fall under new protocols of the Ministry of Sports.

The Dominican Institute of Civil Aviation published the Covid-19 Protocol. This can be downloaded at the IDAC website.

Reports are that the delays in the publishing of the aviation and tourism industry government authorization have led to bookings cancellations and rescheduling of flights.

Indecision in the Medina government prevailed even after President Danilo Medina had announced in a 26 June speech the tourism industry would be reopening on 1 July. The President had said the official resolution would be issued “in hours.” Nevertheless, it was not until 30 June when this was officially issued.

Public Health Minister Rafael Sánchez Cárdenas acknowledged that the first travelers to come will be insiders. He said that mostly arriving will be Dominicans. As reported, the few flights that are booked will be arriving full within the new restricted seat capacity.

From DR1

So they are caving on all fronts except bars.  Yup  stay home!

Until after the elections................

Will elections even get decided first time?

If one wins outright then yes.

The winning party requires a 51% majority.  If not achieved its back to the drawing board.  Probably another election by end of July early August if no winner...

If no winner the top two go at it I believe July 26.

I believe to win needs = 50% + 1 vote
not 51%
anything over 50% - just one vote works

I think you are correct, but not positive.

You know my answer to that...it depends...lol

Bulletin #105

Total cases                    34197      Increase      810
Total deaths                      765      Increase        11
Total recovered             18141     Increase      237
Total active                     15291     Increase      562
Total tests                      157045    Increase     2916    Day positivity    27.8%

Spread of new cases

DN                                   383
Azua                                    7
Baoruca                            10
Barahona                         14
Dajabon                             1
Duarte                               20
Elias Pina                           2
El Seibo                              9
Espaillat                              1
Independencia                  15
La Altagracia                      22
La Romana                         10
La Vega                               11
Maria TS                              2
Monte Cristi                        6
Pedernales                         24
Peravia                                 6
Puerto Plata                        4
Hermanas M                      12
Semana                                2
San Cristobal                      25
San Juan                               5
SPM                                      13
Sanchez Ramirez                 4
Santiago                               56
Monsenor N                         5
Monte Plata                          1
San Jose                                 9
Santo Domingo                  170
Not Specified                       -39

Cases in every province except Santiago Rodriguez, Valverde,  and Hato Mayor today.

High positivity, not enough testing and everywhere in the country. Day increase of 562 active cases.

Total of 41 new cases in eastern tourist region too.

ANÁLISIS ESTADÍSTICO DE LA EVOLUCIÓN DEL
VIRUS EN LA REPÚBLICA DOMINICANA  INFORME #88

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1sKVfy4 … F4r0p/view

When will the results be declared?

Well that depends!   Depends if polls close on time. Depends if there are voting issues including machines not working.  Depends how close it is.  Depends if hand counting is slow with lots of questioned ballots.

Not an easy answer.  Sorry.

I am keeping my businesses closed on Monday pending issues in the streets and results!

For Lennox:

Bulletin #106

Total confirmed cases    35148       Increase      951     Record
Total deaths                        775         Increase       10
Total recovered                18392       Increase      251
Total active                        15981      Increase      690
Total tests                        160541      Increase     3496    Day positivity  27.2%

Spread of new cases

DN                                            283
Azua                                           8
Barahona                                 37
Dajabon                                     2
Duarte                                      11
Elias Pina                                  21
Espaillat                                      7
La Altagracia                             40
La Romana                                 7
La Vega                                      37
Maria TS                                      6
Monte Cristi                               2
Peravia                                       11
Puerto Plata                               12
San Cristobal                             65
San Juan                                     35
SPM                                             15
Sanchez Ramirez                        7
Santiago                                     106
Valverde                                      1
Monsenor N                               9
Monte Plata                                6
Hato Mayor                                 4
San Jose                                       4
Santo Domingo                       197
Not specified                              18

Going sharply upwards now. High positivity. Active cases increasing rapidly. Widespread.

The worst is yet to come. 50% in capital 50% outside and more tests in the capital too.

Lennox you do such an amazing job with this THANK YOU!

ANÁLISIS ESTADÍSTICO DE LA EVOLUCIÓN DEL
VIRUS EN LA REPÚBLICA DOMINICANA   INFORME #89

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1TT0MiQ … rrD4w/view

Not good.

I notice the UK have issued a list of 59 countries with no quarantine issues.  Whilst many British and French Caribbean island are on the list guess what DR is not.

I notice on the European flights out of SD there are enormous amount of contact tracing required with passengers required to give a fair amount of detail.

Basically if you go to Europe from DR you quarantine now and that wont change for a very long time because DR is getting worse every day.

La Altagracia had quite a few more cases today but significanty the positivity was over 30%. Now that is the tourist hub of DR.

DR surely has to take some serious steps after the election to stop the fast rising spread otherwise it will damage tourism badly.

Chaos at testing centres:

Anguish prevails among those who go for tests at Defilló

https://listindiario.com/la-republica/2 … al-defillo

Perhaps local lock-downs could work.

Take the 3-4 main areas i.e. SD and lock them down for 14 days.  Or would that create riots in the streets.

Locking down a whole country again doesn't seem the right route to take but perhaps it's different over here.

Wow and only going to get worse.

Ducketts that was needed several weeks ago. Now its spread pretty much everywhere.

And I am afraid you are right, another lockdown will trigger riots.

If Lennox is right - 50% SD and the rest of the country

Hard to lock down the country to get the second 50%
Inter provincial travel should stop - AGAIN!!

Bad News

Bulletin # 107

Total confirmed cases       36184     Increase    1036     new record
Total deaths                             786     Increase         11
Total recovered                   18602     Increase      210
Total active                            16796    Increase       815
Total tests                            163727   Increase      3186    Day positivity   32.5%

Spread of new cases

DN                                323
Azua                                37
Barahona                      16
Dajabon                           1
Darte                                5
Elias Pina                         2
Espaillat                          33
Independencia               6
La Altagracia                   36
La Romana                      17
La Vega                             19
Maria TS                            3
Monte Cristi                    -1
Pedernales                      13
Peravia                             12
Puerto Plata                     13
Hermanas M                     2
Semana                             7
San Cristobal                   40
San Juan                           34
SPM                                   18
Sanchez Ramirez              8
Santiago                            88
Santiago R                         2
Valverde                            1
Monsenor N                    15
Hato Mayor                       1
Santo Domingo               227
Not specified                    58

Only 3 provinces not reporting cases.

Spread everywhere with very high positivity and active cases.

This is beginning to develop into an uncontrolled disaster. The failure of the health system is a lagging indicator along with deaths and that is the next worry.

Firstly the spread is everywhere and we are seeing the same sorts of concentrations of cases now in many provinces as in the cities with lesser testing.

The positivity is rising sharply and suggest a very high R value. We should be looking at about 5% for a controlled situation.

Masks alone will not control the spread now at these levels, more enforced social distancing measures are the only way. The worst is yet to come with the impact of political rallies.

It will take a little time for this to sink in. The economy cannot recover with such high transmission and that applies particularly to tourism. A new government will have to act.

So sad that DR couldn't take the pain and now look at the rest of the Caribbean islands, Costa Rica, Europe and Canada with envy, and have joined the 'sick' countries of the Americas with travel bans beginning to kick in for us.

Yes sad indeed.

The gardener of the house just turned up and we had an interesting conversation in my broken Spanish & Google translate about the DR situation.  He appears fairly up to date with local matters.

His views-not mine.

PLD will just squeeze in with the support of FP.  However there will be a second run off on 26 July.
PLD much for tourism than PRM.  He admits they are ahead in the polls but says that means nothing in DR.

He believes after the elections-about 5-6 weeks from now there will severe lock down but he doesn't think tourism etc will be closed though.  I wonder!

Wow,  just wow.

Even though spreading, if you look here and other countries, the deaths are not a high number. If you want to say it will increase, time will tell but it tends to be with older population and people with underlying conditions.

And this is not meant that you should not wear a mask and be safe.

The death rate is lower becuase only 10% of the Dominican population is over 60 and so it is a poor number to compare with other countries. Equally Domincans choose to suffer at home too and the real death rate is probably not certain due to failure to test all deaths and some other cause is stated in the deeath certificate like the well reported cases in Pimental in Duarte a month or so ago.

What we can say is that the death rate daily is now creeping back up and is a lagging indicator. So watch it continue in the coming weeks.

Secondly, a large number of the expats who live here are retirees and this is a bad omen for them. Equally a great many tourists are older and many are obese with health issues so this will not be good for them either.

Look at the larger picture. No country can survive too long with an uncontrolled virus becuase it will in the end affect economic activity as well as health provision.

DR will have to confront a bad situation which daily gets worse after the elections or suffer long term.

You may have missed recent reports and studies on the people who survive,  who later on  have what are expected to be lifelong issues!   

Death is not the only issue here sadly.

ANÁLISIS ESTADÍSTICO DE LA EVOLUCIÓN DEL
VIRUS EN LA REPÚBLICA DOMINICANA  INFORME #90

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WOvcYv … tI4yw/view

The positivity over recent days on average is spiking rapidly which is a big warning of a deteriorating situation.

Santiago looks really problematic now, as is the East Coast.

Not enough testing but exceptionionally high postivity - nearly 30% above a controlled situation - is indicating a massive problem ahead for whatever government.

Opening up too early with political foolishness has its price with covid19.

Crowds in supermarkets the day before the elections

https://www.diariolibre.com/actualidad/ … MA19916192


More craziness ..........look at those photos!!!!

"Goodbye" to social distancing in public transport

https://listindiario.com/la-republica/2 … te-publico


What does one expect after the political caravans and massive conglomerations without any social distancing?

As far as I'm aware Social distancing has never really existed and sadly it's got worse, if that's possible, by the photos.

I stopped using the buses in March-thank goodness-masks will do nothing to stop the spread of the virus.  I really don't know what anyone can do now.  Tomorrow will be mayhem and for what-probably be and stand off and another fight on the 26 July and then what-probably more of the same.  Very depressing.  Happy Sunday and people stay safe.

Lennox I saw both those articles and it is clear there is no one in control.

Social distancing was somewhat practiced for a couple of months.  It is not deteriorating completely and today we will see it's demise I expect.

Masks are all we have at the moment, use them and stay home.

Today's election is anyone's guess.   This is a hand count situation and there will be a lot of tension.   It is.likely to spill over to tomorrow! 

Stay home.   This is no time to get curious.  Violence can and will break out today tonight and tomorrow.

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy … ording-cdc

Posts on US out of control, not as bad now as people are saying.

US lagged Italy by 2-4 weeks, DR lagged the US by 2-4 weeks although they did not stay the course but next few weeks will be the tell in DR at least for first round.

Getting worse

Bulletin # 108

Confirmed total cases     37425       Increase    1241      New record
Confirmed deaths              794         Increase          8
Total recovered                18943       Increase       341
Total active                        17688       Increase      892
Total tests                         167372      Increase    3645     Day positivity  34.1%

Spread of new cases

DN                                          397
Azua                                         11
Baoruco                                    5
Barahona                                  2
Dajabon                                    7
Duarte                                      12
El Seibo                                     1
Espaillat                                   32
La Altagracia                           50
La Romana                              22
La Vega                                     25
Maria TS                                   14
Pedernales                                2
Peravia                                       7
Puerto Plata                            16
Hermanas M                              1
Samana                                      8
San Cristobal                             54
San Juan                                     25
SPM                                            15
Sanchez Ramirez                      17
Santiago                                     117
Santaigo R                                   2
Valverde                                      5
Monsenor N                               1
Hato Mayor                                1
Santo Domingo                         347
Not Specified                              45